Daily Analysis 20240416

April 16th, 2024

Good morning,

S&P 500 and Nasdaq close 1% lower as yields jump, traders await Israel response to Iran

Stocks retreated on Monday as rising yields and worries over the conflict in the Middle East overshadowed strong Goldman Sachs
earnings and hot retail sales data.

Dow……37735 -248.1 -0.65%
Nasdaq15885 -290.1 -1.79%
S&P 500.5062 -61.6 -1.20%

FTSE…..7966 -30.1 -0.38%
Dax……18027 +96.3 +0.54%
CAC……8045 +34.3 +0.43%

Nikkei..39233 -290.8 -0.74%
HSI……16601 -121.2 -0.72%
Shanghai.3057+37.9 +1.26%

IDX…..7286.88 closed +0%
LQ45….963.73 closed +0%
IDX30…488.17 closed +0%

IDXEnergy..2155.81 closed +0%
IDX BscMat1359.61 closed. +0%
IDX Indstrl…1096.75 closed +0%
IDXNONCYC.715.36 closed +0%
IDX Hlthcare1371.58 closed +0%
IDXCYCLIC…815.23 closed +0%
IDXTechno3513.14 closed +0%
IDX Transp 1444.51 closed +0%
IDX Infrast 1600.91 closed +0%
IDX Finance.1475.65 closed +0%
IDX Banking.1317.47 closed +0%
IDX Property.. 652 closed +0%

Indo10Yr.6.7048 closed +0%
ICBI…379.8860 closed +0%
US2Yr.4.925‼️ +0.013 +0.27%
US5Yr 4.627‼️ +0.016 +0.39%
US10Yr4.601‼️ -0.028 -0.61%
US30Yr.4.724‼️+0.016 +0.34%
VIX………19.23 +1.92 +11.09%‼️

USDIndx 106.2080‼️+0.17 +0.16%
Como Indx..298.18 +0.31 +0.10%
BCOMIN..152.51‼️ +1.97 +1.31%

IndoCDS..75.23 +1.01 +1.36%
(5-yr INOCD5) (12/04)

IDR…..15848.00‼️closed +0%
Jisdor.15873.00‼️closed +0%

Euro….1.0627‼️ +0.00 +0.03%

TLKM…20.85 +0.10 +0.48%
( 3309)
EIDO……21.48 +0.02 +0.09%
EEM……40.27 -0.27 -0.65%

Oil…….85.90 +0.49 +0.57%
Gold..2401.20 +94.30 +4.08%‼️
(04/04-15/04)
Timah..28935.00 +3418.00 +11.81%‼️
(03/04 ’til 12/04)
Nickel..17991.50 +194.5 +1.09%❗️
(Closed 04/04)
Silver….28.97 +2.03 +7.53%‼️
(04/04 – 15/04)
Copper.437.50 +16.10 +3.77%
(04/04 – 15/04)
Iron Ore 62% 106.05 +5.64 +5.61%‼️
(03/04-12/04)
Nturl Gas..1.686‼️ -0.002 -0.12%
Ammonia China.3216.67 +183.34 +6.04%‼️
(Domestic Price)(04/04 – 12/04)

Coal price.129.75 +0.50 +0.39%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price 136.50 +2.75 +2.06%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.139.20 +3.20 +2.35%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.141.75 +2.50 +1.80%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price..120.70 -0.60 -0.49%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.118.00 -1.25 -1.05%
(May/Rotterdam)
Coal price.118.50 -0.90 -0.75%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 118.55 -1.45 -1.21%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)..4202 -205.00 -4.88%‼️
(04/04 – 15/04)
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn…….444.25 -3.00 -0.67%
SoybeanOil 46.01 -0.44 -0.95%
Wheat…567.50 -3.00 -0.67%

Wood pulp..5700 unch +0%
(Closed 15/04)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Lama libur, ketemu serangan Iran ke Israel… DJI sudah beberapa hari trun terus, europe varied, asia kebanyakan merah kemaren, IHSG hari ini kayanya akan rada goncang…

Suasana perang, selalu USD naik, commodity terkait energy naik, Bond Yield dan interest rate biasanya naik biar orang keep dana di system. Belum pasti gimana dampak ke BEI, kemungkinan besar akan goyang dulu, baru nanti setelah shock nya lewat yang hubungan sama energy yang jalan

Semua precious metals naik, oil naik, gas turun, coal naik, CPO drop. Normally saya akan hold ANTM erat erat, dan ELSA, dan ADRO, tapi entahlah dengan kondisi sekarang

IHSG – kalo dari elliot wavenya sih, emang jadwal nerusin ABC correction… walau terakhir market closing stoch buy, macd revup, FF rev net buy, tapi kondisi global memanas di saat kita libur bisa jadi efeknya meledak di opening day hari ini

dari sini sih masih jadwalnya basic materials, dan kalo liat metal2 naik ya cocok, tapi masih unpredictable karena suasana global

Stochastic Buy Signal: ANTM BBCA INCO TLKM ELSA IMAS LPPF MIKA SGRO. Big accum ANTM INCO MIKA

MACD buy Signal: PGEO SIDO ADMR BSDE DOID JPFA. Big accum SIDO DOID

ANTM – normally akan recommend buy, tapi kalo yang new entry jangan dulu lah, saya udah masuk jadi hold

INCO – stoch buy, macd rev up, MFI up, w% up, BD acc tipis, FF masih dist, udah bottoming bikin double bottom terus mantul, udah bikin higher low, CNH or IHNS forming, logam2 naik, harusnya sih bisa buy, tapi sabar lah ya, liat efek iran-israel nya luntur dulu baru entry

ELSA – buy signal dari pas closing market, udah masang tapi ga dapet barang…
Stoch buy MACD up, MFI up, w% uptrend, BD FF acc, mantul dari area support, harusnya ke fibo 61 @ 426

ada spike

Idealnya kemaren pas price dips ke bawah avg nya GR. Masih bisa sih sekarang, ngelihat harga minyak yang naik, dan kemungkinan suasana panas akan terus naik semua yang terkait energy

BUY ELSA idealnya dapet closing price candle sebelumnya

MIKA – stoch bolak balik, MACD rev down, semper kena reg bear div macd walau cancelled, MFI doen, w% down, sektor nya udah mulai lemes, skip dulu deh, apalagi rawan bantingan index nya

SIDO – rada resiko buat dikejar, udah jalan jauh, dan sektornya juga mau udahan, udah banyak regbear juga, skip

DOID – stoch buy, macd rev buy, MFI down, BD FF acc, mantul dari bottom terus udah bikin higher low, tapi saya udah pegang adro so skip dulu DOID