Posts Tagged ‘inflation’

Daily Analysis 20230217

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 17th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes 400 points lower as hot inflation report, comments from Fed’s Bullard raise rate hike fears

Stocks fell Thursday after another hot inflation report, and a decline in jobless claims, showed the economy is holding up amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Dow…….33697 -431.2 -1.26%
Nasdaq.11856 -214.8 -1.78%
S&P 500..4090 -57.2 -1.38%

FTSE…….8013 +14.70 +0.18%
Dax……..15534 +27.3 +0.18%
CAC……..7366 +65.3 +0.89%

Nikkei…..27696 +194.6 +0.71%
HSI………20988 +175.5 +0.84%
Shanghai..3249 -31.5 -0.96%

IDX…..6895.66 -18.87 -0.27%
LQ45….953.49 -4.15 -0.43%
IDX30…495.68 -2.19 -0.44%

IDXEnergy…2098.15 -11.47 -0.54%
IDX BscMat 1260.50 -1.75 -0.14%
IDX Indstrl…1157.69 -0.67 -0.06%
IDXNONCYC..755.41 -4.04 -0.53%
IDX Hlthcare1605.40 -11.73 -0.73%
IDXCYCLIC…849.72 +4.64 +0.55%
IDX Techno5585.84 +57.44 +1.04%
IDX Transp1846.95 +15.38 +0.84%
IDX Infrast….867.03 +7.94 +0.92 %
IDX Finance1423.17 -3.19 -0.22%
IDX Banking1156.81 -8.52 -0.73%
IDX Property….697 -0.30 -0.05%

Indo10Yr.6.7698 -0.0076 -0.11%
ICBI..350.6495 +0.1943 +0.06%
US10Yr.3.8430 +0.0340 +0.89%
VIX……20.17 +1.94 +10.64%‼️

USDIndx104.0500+0.2289+0.21%‼️
Como Indx.270.25 -0.13 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..163.48 +1.63 +1.01%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15206.50 +39.50 +0.26%
Jisdor.15176.00 -18.00 -0.12%

Euro……1.0690 -0.0045 -0.42%

TLKM….24.87 -0.09 -0.36%
(3774)
EIDO……23.29 -0.11 -0.47%
EEM……40.12 +0.01 +0.02%

Oil……..78.49 -0.10 -0.13%
Gold 1851.80 +6.50 +0.35%
Timah 26658 -159.00 -0.59%
(Closed 02/15)
Nickel.26647.00 +620.90 +2.38%‼️
(Closed 02/16)
Silver…….21.71 +0.14 +0.64%
Copper..412.15 +10.00 +2.49%

Nturl Gas.2.394 -0.072 -2.92%

Ammonia4406.67 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(02/15)

Coal price.214.00 -5.90 -2.68%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price186.30 -9.70 -4.95%‼️
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price183.95 -11.45 -5.86%‼️
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price185.45 -11.65 -5.91%‼️
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.137.00 +0.50 +0.37%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 139.00-3.00 -2.11%
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price137.00 -3.00 -2.14%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price137.40 -1.60 -1.15%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(May)….4070 +126 +3.19%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..675.00 +1.00 +0.15%
SoybeanOil..62.15 +0.71 +1.16%
Wheat…….776.25 -4.00. -0.51%

Wood pulp…6030.00 -20 -0.33%
(Closed 02/16)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Era9wati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah rada dalem, europe market closing masih ijo asia varied, IHSG merah lagi

CPO naik tinggi, itu kayanya kemaren AALI LSIP naik tinggi… Oil merah, gas drop, coal drop, metal2 naik semua, watchout for ANTM MDKA INCO

IHSG – 2 hari NFS, belum jadi break resistance, masih SW dulu. stoch down, MACD sell, MFI sw, bd sw, jangan terlalu aggresive dulu, cermati yang lagi hajatan aja. Major trend masih up, wave 3, tapi belum lari. Kayanya nunggu resmi laporan keuangan big bank keluar semua dulu

Tinggal infrastructure yang arahnya bagus, healthcare melemah juga

Stoch Buy Signal: ASII TINS BRMS LSIP WIFI

MACD Buy Signal: GOTO INDY SRTG AALI ASSA LSIP

Alligator Buy Signal: INDF AGII BRMS MLPL IGAR

Supertrend: MTEL AALI LSIP WIFI

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A Stock Sell-Off Vocabulary Guide

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Stock sell-offs are tough for long-term buy-and-hold investors to swallow. But they are a necessary and natural element of a functional marketplace. Laws of supply and demand and investor appetite fuel both uptrends and downtrends. As investors, it’s important to be aware of both of these phenomena so that we can plan accordingly.

Sell-offs also conjure up a special vocabulary of finance and investing words in the media that may be unfamiliar. Here is a cheat sheet of some of that lingo for the next time you find yourself in a downdraft.

Key Takeaways

  • Stock sell-offs are a necessary and natural element of a functional marketplace, even if they are tough for long-term buy-and-hold investors to swallow.
  • Sell-offs also conjure up a special vocabulary of finance and investing words in the media that may be unfamiliar, such as volatility, buying the dips, and short selling.
  • Knowing the language of financial markets can only make you smarter and a better investor.

Bond Yields

Rising bond yields are often blamed for a sell-off in stocks. As the Fed raises overnight lending rates and the yield, or return, on U.S. Treasury bond prices rise, it makes them more attractive to investors, large and small, who are looking for a safer and less volatile place to put their money than stocks.

Bond yields have been so low for so long, but they are starting to creep higher, drawing more money to them and away from stock. Aside from their effect on equities, though, there are various reasons why yields matter.

Buy the Dips

“Buy the dips” is trader slang for buying securities following a decline in prices, with the inkling that they have fallen for no apparent reason and should recover and keep rising in short order. It’s kind of like an unexpected sale at your favorite retailer, except you think the value of the things you buy on that sale day will get more valuable over time. It doesn’t always work out in the stock market, but people like saying it.

Capitulation

In a way, you can think of capitulation as ripping your computer off the desk, hurling it across the room, and throwing the mother of all tantrums. But really it’s another way of saying that you can’t bear the losses anymore in a particular security or market and you are going to cut your losses and sell. When markets or a particular stock sell off in heavy volume, many investors are tempted to abandon ship and sell their stakes as well, or capitulate. That only exacerbates the losses.

Circuit Breaker

A circuit breaker is like the breaker box in your basement. However, this one can shut off the juice at the major securities exchanges. Exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq are sometimes compelled to flip the switch when there is too much of an imbalance between sell and buy orders.

With more and more trades being pushed through computer algorithms, those imbalances can be more frequent. They last anywhere from a few minutes to several hours, but it’s all in the name of smoothing out the order flow so markets can effectively match buyers and sellers. Trading is halted for 15 minutes when a Level 1 circuit breaker is triggered by a 7 percent decrease from the S&P 500’s closing price.

Correction

In general, a correction is a 10% decline of the price of a security, market, or index from its most recent high. A correction should not be confused with a crash or just a bad day in the markets; these happen fairly frequently and can last anywhere from a couple of days to several months. Stocks can be in a correction before the index they are included in falls into one.

Implied Volatility

Implied volatility refers to the estimated changes in a security’s price and is generally used when pricing options. In general, implied volatility increases when the market is bearish—when investors believe that the asset’s price will decline over time—and decreases when the market is bullish—when investors believe that the price will rise over time.

Inflation

Simply put, inflation is the rate at which the level of prices for goods and services rises, which can drive the purchasing power of a currency lower. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to rising inflation when it sets overnight lending rates or the Federal Funds Rate, as it is known.

Since the Fed has been raising rates of late and plans to continue to do so a few more times, at least, it makes borrowing costs more expensive which can impede growth and thus profits. It may sound complicated, but you can understand the relationship between interest rates and stock markets.

Short Selling

Basically, short selling is a bet that a security or index will decline wherein a short seller borrows shares to offer them for sale. The idea is to sell such shares, of which the short seller has no ownership, at a higher price hoping that the price falls by the time the trade needs to be settled. That would enable the short seller to acquire shares at the lower price and deliver them to the buyer, making a profit equaling the difference in prices.

While, if done right, short selling can be profitable, it can amount to massive losses if the trade goes the other way. It is definitely not a strategy for beginners.

Tariff

Tariffs are increased duties that are levied by countries on goods they import to protect domestic industries. These levies make the imported goods less attractive to domestic consumers. But even as this is expected to be a shot in the arm for the domestic economy, it has other consequences like upsetting trade partners who may retaliate, setting off a trade war. When this occurs with a significant trading partner, the future of large corporations that conduct business in those countries comes under question, putting pressure on the stock markets.

Volatility

Technically speaking, volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion, or returns, for a given security or market index. That’s another way of saying it’s a measurement of change (or beta) of a security or index against its normal patterns or benchmarks it is weighed against. In the stock market, one way of measuring volatility is to look at the Chicago Board of Options Volatility Index (VIX).

There are many other ways to measure volatility, depending on what you are looking at or measuring. If you think of it as a measurement of the rate of change that reflects uncertainty or risk, you are on the right track.

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Daily Analysis 20230216

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 16th, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks close slightly higher, Nasdaq notches 3-day win streak as investors weigh retail sales and inflation data

Stocks ticked higher Wednesday as traders mulled what strong retail sales along with the latest U.S. inflation data mean for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking campaign.

Dow…….34129 +38.8 +0.11%
Nasdaq.12071 +110.5 +0.92%
*@S&P 500..4148 +11.5 +0.28%

FTSE…….7998 +43.98 +0.55%
Dax……..15506 +125.8 +0.82%
CAC……..7301 +87.1 +1.21%

Nikkei…..27502 -100.9 -0.37%
HSI………20812 -301.6 -1.43%
Shanghai..3280 -12.8 -0.39%

IDX…..6914.54 -27.32 -0.39%
LQ45….957.64 -2.67 -0.28%
IDX30…497.86 -1.46. -0.29%

IDXEnergy…2109.61 -2.13 -0.10%
IDX BscMat 1262.25 -6.02 -0.47%
IDX Indstrl…1158.36 -4.31 -0.37%
IDXNONCYC..759.46 +0.67 +0.09%
IDX Hlthcare1617.13 +4.82 +0.30%
IDXCYCLIC…845.08 -1.58 -0.19%
IDX Techno5528.40 -72.11 -1.29%
IDX Transp1831.57 -23.15 -1.25%
IDX Infrast….859.10 -1.29 -0.15 %
IDX Finance1426.36 -9.74 -0.68%
IDX Banking1165.33 -10.61-0.90%
IDX Property….697 -6.40 -0.91%

Indo10Yr.6.7774+0.0081 +0.12%
ICBI..350.4552 -0.1658 -0.05%
US10Yr.3.8090 +0.0480 +1.28%
VIX……18.23 -0.68 -3.60%👍

USDIndx103.8220+0.5530+0.54%
Como Indx.270.38 -3.18 -1.16%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..161.85 -2.49 -1.52%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15206.50 +39.50 +0.26%
Jisdor.15194.00 +26.00 +0.17%

Euro……1.0690 -0.0045 -0.42%

TLKM….24.96 -0.43 -1.69%
(3792)
EIDO……23.40 -0.11 -0.47%
EEM……40.11 -0.34 -0.84%

Oil……..78.59 -0.47 -0.59%
Gold 1845.30 -20.10 -1.08%
Timah 26817 -711.00 -2.58%
(Closed 02/14)
Nickel.26026.50 -461.00 -1.74%
(Closed 02/15)
Silver…….21.63 +0.05 +0.25%
Copper..402.55 +1.50 +0.37%

Nturl Gas.2.466 -0.135 -5.19%‼️

Ammonia4406.67 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(02/14)

Coal price.219.90 +0.40 +0.18%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price196.00 +1.50 +0.77%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price 195.40 +2.50 +1.30%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price 197.10 +3.00. +1.55%
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.136.50 +2.50 +1.83%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 142.00+10.25 +7.78%‼️
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price140.00 +9.25 +7.07%‼️
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price139.00 +8.25 +6.31%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(Apr)….3935 -20 -0.50%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..674.00 -5.75 -0.85%
SoybeanOil..61.44 +0.91 +1.50%
Wheat…….780.25 -16.50 -2.07%

Wood pulp…6050.00 -10 -0.17%
(Closed 02/15)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US europe ijo, asia yang kemaren masih pada merah, semoga hari ini ikutan ijo lagi

Oil merah, gas merah, coal gantian ijo, semoga lanjut dorong ADRO naik tinggi selain issue buyback. Metal2 masih merah kecuali silver copper, kemaren MDKA udah mulai jalan, jangan dulu entry tapi, sabar tunggu firm reversal, CPO merah lagi

IHSG – stoch balik sell, macd sw,last day NFS, MFI down, BD acc, alligator up, ST up, minor correction udah kena fibo 38 terus mantul, harusnya test resistance 6961, candle terakhir low lower shadow, bullish candle tanda perlawanan market ga mau dibawa turun, semoga ijo ikut US

Tinggal Healthcare, Infrastructure melemah, financials belum keliatan jalan padahal bank bank mulai gerak, BRIS gila 15% kemaren

Stochastic Buy Signal: AKRA AMRT

MACD Buy Signal: AKRA BRIS BRPT AGRO BSSR

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Daily Analysis 20230215

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 15th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 150 points lower following January’s hotter-than-expected inflation report

Stocks wavered Tuesday and the Dow fell, reversing earlier gains, after the January consumer price index report showed that inflation grew at higher-than-expected 6.4% annual rate

Treasury yields ticked higher, and the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury closed at 5.022%, above 5% for the first time since July 2007.

Dow…….34089 -156.7 -0.46%
Nasdaq.11960 +68.4 +0.57%
S&P 500..4136 -1.2 -0.03%

FTSE…….7954 +6.3 +0.08%
Dax……..15381 -16.8 -0.11%
CAC……..7214 +5.2. +0.07%

Nikkei…..27603 +175.5 +0.64%
HSI………21114 -50.7 -0.24%
Shanghai..3293 +9.1 +0.28%

IDX…..6941.85 +41.72 +0.60%
LQ45….960.31 +7.09 +0.74%
IDX30…499.33 +0.75%
IDX80…134.19 +0.70%
IDXEnergy…2111.75 +25.40 +1.22%
IDX BscMat 1268.27 +4.25 +0.34%
IDX Indstrl…1162.67 -2.72 -0.23%
IDXNONCYC..758.78 +3.69 +0.49%
IDX Hlthcare1612.13 +29.29+1.86%
IDXCYCLIC…846.65 -1.94 -0.23%
IDX Techno5600.51 +17.84 +0.32%
IDX Transp1854.72 +18.36 +1.03%
IDX Infrast….860.38 +2.80 +0.33 %
IDX Finance1436.09 +3.36 +0.23%
IDX Banking1175.94 +5.13 +0.44%
IDX Property….703 -1.50 -0.21%
Indo10Yr.6.7693+0.0202+0.30%
ICBI..350.6210 -0.0916 -0.03%
US10Yr.3.7610 +0.0440 +1.18%
VIX……18.91 -1.43 -7.09%👍

USDIndx103.2690-0.036 -0.03%
Como Indx.273.56 +0.77 +0.28%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..164.34 -0.19 -0.11%
.
IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15166.50 -38.00 -0.25%
Jisdor.15216.00 -48.00 -0.32%

Euro……1.0735 +0.0014 +0.11%

TLKM….25.39 +0.08 +0.32%
(3863)
EIDO……23.51 +0.12 +0.51%
EEM……40.45 -0.07 -0.17%

Oil……..79.06 -1.08 -1.36%
Gold 1865.40 +1.90 +0.10%
Timah 27528 +179.00 +0.65%
(Closed 02/13)
Nickel.26487.50 +29.00 +0.11%
(Closed 02/14)
Silver…….21.87 +0.02 +0.10%
Copper..407.50 +1.75 +0.43%

Nturl Gas.2.601 +0.162 +6.64%‼️

Ammonia4406.67 +300.0 +7.31%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(02/13)

Coal price.219.50 -1.50 -0.61%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price194.50 -4.25 -2.13%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price 192.90 -4.20 -2.13%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price 194.10 -4.50 -2.26%
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.134.00 +2.00 +1.52%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.75 +3.25 +2.53%
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price130.75 +1.85 +1.44%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price130.75 +0.80 +0.62%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(Apr)….3955 +21 +0.53%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..679.75 -2.50 -0.37%
SoybeanOil..60.53 +0.29 +0.48%
Wheat…….796.75 -4.00 -0.50%

Wood pulp…6060.00 -20 -0.33%
(Closed 02/14)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia, D’Origin
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Wah, US balik merah walau nasdaq ijo, europe tipis2, asia ijo kecuali hangseng. Prepare merah lagi tudei

oil merah, gas ijo tebel, coal NCF merah Rotterdam ijo, kemaren coal drop saham coal naik, nurut teknikal, ga tau hari ini, semoga masih melawan gravitasi. Metal2 ijo semua, kita cermati apa sudah waktunya entry lagi di basic materials versi tambang logam ANTM MDKA INCO TINS dkk. CPO rebound dikit, tunggu buy signal aja

IHSG – foreign nett buylag, BD acc, MFI sw, stoch buy, MACD up lagi, w% masih says up, semoga kalopun koreksi minor aja. Masih jadwal wave 3, cuma masih berat breakout resistance

Healthcare, Consumer Cyclicals, Infrastructure

Stoch Buy Signal: ESSA SMGR SRTG TLKM ABMM GGRM MTMH MYOR

MACD Buy Signal: MIKA

Alligator Buy Signal: BABP

Supertrend screener MYOR ENRG

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