Stock sell-offs are tough for long-term buy-and-hold investors to swallow. But they are a necessary and natural element of a functional marketplace. Laws of supply and demand and investor appetite fuel both uptrends and downtrends. As investors, it’s important to be aware of both of these phenomena so that we can plan accordingly.

Sell-offs also conjure up a special vocabulary of finance and investing words in the media that may be unfamiliar. Here is a cheat sheet of some of that lingo for the next time you find yourself in a downdraft.

Bond Yields

Rising bond yields are often blamed for a sell-off in stocks. As the Fed raises overnight lending rates and the yield, or return, on U.S. Treasury bond prices rise, it makes them more attractive to investors, large and small, who are looking for a safer and less volatile place to put their money than stocks.

Bond yields have been so low for so long, but they are starting to creep higher, drawing more money to them and away from stock. Aside from their effect on equities, though, there are various reasons why yields matter.

Buy the Dips

“Buy the dips” is trader slang for buying securities following a decline in prices, with the inkling that they have fallen for no apparent reason and should recover and keep rising in short order. It’s kind of like an unexpected sale at your favorite retailer, except you think the value of the things you buy on that sale day will get more valuable over time. It doesn’t always work out in the stock market, but people like saying it.

Capitulation

In a way, you can think of capitulation as ripping your computer off the desk, hurling it across the room, and throwing the mother of all tantrums. But really it’s another way of saying that you can’t bear the losses anymore in a particular security or market and you are going to cut your losses and sell. When markets or a particular stock sell off in heavy volume, many investors are tempted to abandon ship and sell their stakes as well, or capitulate. That only exacerbates the losses.

Circuit Breaker

A circuit breaker is like the breaker box in your basement. However, this one can shut off the juice at the major securities exchanges. Exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq are sometimes compelled to flip the switch when there is too much of an imbalance between sell and buy orders.

With more and more trades being pushed through computer algorithms, those imbalances can be more frequent. They last anywhere from a few minutes to several hours, but it’s all in the name of smoothing out the order flow so markets can effectively match buyers and sellers. Trading is halted for 15 minutes when a Level 1 circuit breaker is triggered by a 7 percent decrease from the S&P 500’s closing price.

Correction

In general, a correction is a 10% decline of the price of a security, market, or index from its most recent high. A correction should not be confused with a crash or just a bad day in the markets; these happen fairly frequently and can last anywhere from a couple of days to several months. Stocks can be in a correction before the index they are included in falls into one.

Implied Volatility

Implied volatility refers to the estimated changes in a security’s price and is generally used when pricing options. In general, implied volatility increases when the market is bearish—when investors believe that the asset’s price will decline over time—and decreases when the market is bullish—when investors believe that the price will rise over time.

Inflation

Simply put, inflation is the rate at which the level of prices for goods and services rises, which can drive the purchasing power of a currency lower. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to rising inflation when it sets overnight lending rates or the Federal Funds Rate, as it is known.

Since the Fed has been raising rates of late and plans to continue to do so a few more times, at least, it makes borrowing costs more expensive which can impede growth and thus profits. It may sound complicated, but you can understand the relationship between interest rates and stock markets.

Short Selling

Basically, short selling is a bet that a security or index will decline wherein a short seller borrows shares to offer them for sale. The idea is to sell such shares, of which the short seller has no ownership, at a higher price hoping that the price falls by the time the trade needs to be settled. That would enable the short seller to acquire shares at the lower price and deliver them to the buyer, making a profit equaling the difference in prices.

While, if done right, short selling can be profitable, it can amount to massive losses if the trade goes the other way. It is definitely not a strategy for beginners.

Tariff

Tariffs are increased duties that are levied by countries on goods they import to protect domestic industries. These levies make the imported goods less attractive to domestic consumers. But even as this is expected to be a shot in the arm for the domestic economy, it has other consequences like upsetting trade partners who may retaliate, setting off a trade war. When this occurs with a significant trading partner, the future of large corporations that conduct business in those countries comes under question, putting pressure on the stock markets.

Volatility

Technically speaking, volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion, or returns, for a given security or market index. That’s another way of saying it’s a measurement of change (or beta) of a security or index against its normal patterns or benchmarks it is weighed against. In the stock market, one way of measuring volatility is to look at the Chicago Board of Options Volatility Index (VIX).

There are many other ways to measure volatility, depending on what you are looking at or measuring. If you think of it as a measurement of the rate of change that reflects uncertainty or risk, you are on the right track.

In any asset class, the primary motive for any trader, investor, or speculator is to make trading as profitable as possible. In commodities, which include everything from coffee to crude oil, we will analyze the techniques of fundamental analysis and technical analysis, which are employed by traders in their buy, sell, or hold decisions.

The technique of fundamental analysis is believed to be ideal for investments involving a longer time period. It is more research-based; it studies demand-supply situations, economic policies, and financials as decision-making criteria.

Traders commonly use technical analysis, as it is appropriate for short-term judgment in markets, and analyzes the past price patterns, trends, and volume to construct charts in order to determine future movement.

Identifying the Market for Commodities

Momentum indicators are the most popular for commodity trading, contributing to the trusted adage, “buy low and sell high.” Momentum indicators are further split into oscillators and trend-following indicators. Traders need to first identify the market (i.e., whether the market is trending or ranging before applying any of these indicators). This information is important because the trend following indicators do not perform well in a ranging market; similarly, oscillators tend to be misleading in a trending market.

Moving Averages

One of the simplest and most widely used indicators in technical analysis is the moving average (MA), which is the average price over a specified period for a commodity or stock. For example, a five-period MA will be the average of the closing prices over the last five days, including the current period. When this indicator is used intra-day, the calculation is based on the current price data instead of the closing price.

The MA tends to smooth out the random price movement to bring out the concealed trends. It is seen as a lagging indicator and is used to observe price patterns. A buy signal is generated when the price crosses above the MA from below bullish sentiments, while the inverse is indicative of bearish sentiments—hence a sell signal.

There are many versions of MA that are more elaborate, such as exponential moving average (EMA), volume adjusted moving average, and linear weighted moving average. MA is not suitable for a ranging market, as it tends to generate false signals due to price fluctuations. In the example below, notice that the slope of the MA reflects the direction of the trend. A steeper MA shows the momentum backing the trend, while a flattening MA is a warning signal there may be a trend reversal due to falling momentum.

In the chart above, the blue line depicts the nine-day MA, while the red line is the 20-day moving average, and the 40-day MA is depicted by the green line. The 40-day MA is the smoothest and least volatile, while the 9-day MA is showing maximum movement, and the 20-day MA falls in between.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

Moving average convergence divergence, otherwise known as MACD, is a commonly used and effective indicator developed by money manager Gerald Appel. It is a trend-following momentum indicator that uses moving averages or exponential moving averages for calculations. Typically, the MACD is calculated as 12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA. The nine-day EMA of the MACD is called the signal line, which distinguishes bull and bear indicators.

A bullish signal is generated when the MACD is a positive value, as the shorter period EMA is higher (stronger) than the longer period EMA. This signifies an increase in upside momentum, but as the value starts declining, it shows a loss in momentum. Similarly, a negative MACD value is indicative of a bearish situation, and an increase further suggests growing downside momentum.

If negative MACD value decreases, it signals that the downtrend is losing its momentum. There are more interpretations to the movement of these lines such as crossovers; a bullish crossover is signaled when the MACD crosses above the signal line in an upward direction.

In the chart above, the MACD is represented by the orange line and the signal line is purple. The MACD histogram (light green bars) is the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. The MACD histogram is plotted on the center line and represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line shown by bars. When the histogram is positive (above the centerline), it gives out bullish signals, as indicated by the MACD line above its signal line.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular technical-momentum indicator. It attempts to determine the overbought and oversold level in a market on a scale of 0 to 100, thus indicating if the market has topped or bottomed. According to this indicator, the markets are considered overbought above 70 and oversold below 30. The use of a 14-day RSI was recommended by American technical analyst Welles Wilder. Over time, nine-day RSI and 25-day RSIs have gained popularity.

RSI can be used to look for divergence and failure swings in addition to overbought and oversold signals. Divergence occurs in situations where the asset is making a new high while RSI fails to move beyond its previous high, signaling an impending reversal. If the RSI falls below its previous low, a confirmation of the impending reversal is given by the failure swing.

To get more accurate results, be aware of a trending market or ranging market since RSI divergence is not a good enough indicator in case of a trending market. RSI is very useful, especially when used complementary to other indicators.

Stochastic

Famed securities trader George Lane based the Stochastic indicator on the observation that, if the prices have been witnessing an uptrend during the day, then the closing price will tend to settle down near the upper end of the recent price range.

Alternatively, if the prices have been sliding down, the closing price tends to get closer to the lower end of the price range. The indicator measures the relationship between the asset’s closing price and its price range over a specified period of time. The stochastic oscillator contains two lines. The first line is the %K, which compares the closing price to the most recent price range. The second line is the %D (signal line), which is a smoothened form of %K value and is considered the more important among the two. 

The main signal that is formed by this oscillator is when the %K line crosses the %D line. A bullish signal is formed when the %K breaks through the %D in an upward direction. A bearish signal is formed when the %K falls through the %D in a downward direction. Divergence also helps in identifying reversals. The shape of a Stochastic bottom and top also works as a good indicator. Say, for example, a deep and broad bottom indicates that the bears are strong and any rally at such a point could be weak and short-lived.

A chart with %K and %D is known as Slow Stochastic. The stochastic indicator is one of the good indicator that can be clubbed best with the RSI, among others.

Bollinger Bands® 

The Bollinger Band® was developed in the 1980s by financial analyst John Bollinger. It is a good indicator to measure overbought and oversold conditions in the market. Bollinger Bands® are a set of three lines: the centerline (trend), an upper line (resistance), and a lower line (support). When the price of the commodity considered is volatile, the bands tend to expand, while in cases when the prices are range-bound there is contraction.

Bollinger Bands® are helpful to traders seeking to detect the turning points in a range-bound market, buying when the price drops and hits the lower band and selling when the price rises to touch the upper band. However, as the markets enter trending, the indicator starts giving false signals, especially if the price moves away from the range it was trading. Bollinger Bands® are considered apt for low-frequency trend following.

The Bottom Line

There are many technical indicators available to traders, and picking the right ones is crucial to informed decisions. Making sure of their suitability to the market conditions, the trend-following indicators are apt for trending markets, while oscillators fit well in ranging market conditions. However, beware: applying technical indicators improperly can result in misleading and false signals, resulting in losses. Therefore, starting with Stochastic or Bollinger Bands® are recommended for those who are new to using technical analysis.

Investopedia does not provide tax, investment, or financial services and advice. The information is presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Technical analysis is a useful tool that allows a trader to anticipate certain market activity before it occurs. These anticipations are drawn from previous chart patterns, probabilities of certain trade setups and a trader’s previous experience. Over time, anticipation can eliminate the need for over-analyzing market direction as well as identifying clear, objective areas of significance. It isn’t as hard as it sounds. Read on to find out how to anticipate the direction of a market trend and follow it through to a profit.

Anticipation vs. Prediction

Technical analysis is often referred to as some sort of black magic used to time the market. However, what many outside of the financial world don’t realize is that traders don’t try to predict the future. Instead, they create strategies that have a high probability of succeeding—situations where a trend or market movement can be anticipated.

Let’s face it: if traders could pick tops and bottoms on a consistent basis, they would be spending more time out in a Ferrari F430 convertible enjoying a nice stretch of highway than they would hunched over their computer screen. Many of you have probably tried picking tops and bottoms in the past and are through with the game. Perhaps you’re already following in the footsteps of many professional traders who attempt to find situations where they can anticipate a move and then take a portion of that move when the setups occur.

The Power of Anticipation

When deciding on whether or not to make a trade, you likely have your own strategies for entering and exiting the market. (If you don’t, you should decide on them before clicking the buy/sell button.) Technical traders use certain tools such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic, or the commodity channel index (CCI), along with recognizable chart patterns that have occurred in the past with a certain measured result.

Experienced traders will probably have a good idea of what the outcome of a trade will be as it plays out. If the trade is going against them as soon as they enter and it doesn’t turn around within the next few bars, odds are that they weren’t correct on their analysis. However, if the trade does go in their favor within the next few bars, then they can begin to look at moving the stops up to lock in gains as the position plays out. (“Bars” are used as a generic term here, as some of you may use candlesticks or line charts for trading.)

The figure below is an example of a trade taken on the British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) currency pair. It uses an exponential moving average (EMA) crossover to determine when to be long and when to be short. The blue line is a 10-period EMA, and the red is a 20-period EMA. When the blue line is over the red, you are long, and vice versa for shorts. In a trending market, this is a powerful setup to take because it allows you to participate in the large move that often follows this signal. The first arrow shows a false signal, while the second shows a very profitable signal.

This is where the power of anticipation comes into play. The active trader typically monitors open positions as they play out to see if any adjustments need to be made. Once you had gone long at the first arrow, within three bars, you would already be down more than 100 pips. By placing your stop at the longer-term trend moving average, you will probably want to be out of that trade anyway, as a potential reversal might be signaled.

On the second arrow, once you were long, it would only take a few days before this trade went in your favor. The trade management comes into play by trailing your stop up to your personal trading style. In this case, you could have used a close under the blue line as your stop, or waited for a close underneath the red line (longer-term moving average). By being active in position management—by following the market with your stops and accepting them when they are hit—you are far more likely to have greater returns in the long run than you would be if you removed the stop right before the market blasted through it.

The above figure illustrates the difference between anticipation and prediction. In this case, we are anticipating that this trade will have a similar result based on the results of previous trades. After all, this pattern was nearly identical to the one that worked before, and all other things remaining equal, it should have a decent enough chance to work in our favor.

So did we make a prediction about what would happen in this case? Absolutely not. If we had, we wouldn’t have put our stop-loss in place at the same time the trade was sent. Unlike anticipation, which uses past results to determine the probability of future ones, making an accurate prediction often involves a combination of luck and conjecture, making the results much less, well, predictable.

Limited Emotion

By monitoring the trade(s) in real-time and adjusting accordingly, we ensure that emotions aren’t able to get the better of us and cause a deviation from the original plan. Our plan originated before the position was taken (and thus had no conflict of interest), so we use this to look back on when the trade is active.

Since we already have a plan that involves no emotion, we are able to do as much as possible to stick to that plan during the heat of battle. Make a point of minimizing emotion, but not completely removing it. You’re only human, after all, and trading like a robot is nearly impossible for most traders, no matter how successful they are. We know what the market will look like if our anticipation both does and does not occur.

Therefore, by using the chart above, you can see where the signals clearly did and did not work as they were happening based on the price action of each bar and its relation to the moving averages. The key is to take ownership of your trades and act based on your trading plan time and time again.

The Bottom Line

Objectivity is essential to trading survival. Technical analysis provides many views of anticipation in a clear and concise manner, but as with everything else in life, it doesn’t provide a guarantee of success. However, by sticking to a trading plan day in and day out, our emotions are minimized and we can greatly increase the probability of making a winning trade. With time and experience, you can learn to anticipate the direction of your trades and improve your chances of achieving better returns.