October 05th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow rallies more than 1,500 points in two days, S&P 500 posts best 2-day gain since 2020

Stocks surged Tuesday as Wall Street built on a sharp rally seen in the previous session and bond yields continued to fall.

Dow…….30316 +825.4 +2.80%
Nasdaq.11176 +360.97 +3.34%
S&P 500..3791 +112.5 +3.06%

FTSE…….7086 +177.7 +2.57%
Dax……..12671 +461.0 +3.78%
CAC……..6040 +245.5 +4.24%

Nikkei….26992 +776.4 +2.96%
HSI……..17080 closed +0%
Shanghai..3024 closed +0%
ST Times..3139 +31.8 +1.02%

IDX…….7072.26 +62.54 +0.89%
LQ45…1014.65 +8.27 +0.82%

IDX Energy…1994.63 +61.54 +3.18%
IDX Bsc Mat.1253.73 +24.55 +2.00%
IDX Industrl..1298.34 +14.77 +1.15%
IDXNONCYC..700.03 +0.41 +0.06%
IDX Hlthcare.1456.78 -2.45 -0.17%
IDXCYCLIC…..850.49 +2.06 +0.17%
IDX Techno..6932.20 -17.38 -0.25%
IDX Transp…1799.98 +38.26 +2.17%
IDX Infrast…….982.22 +5.40 +0.55%
IDX Finance 1487.34 +12.02 +0.81%
IDX Banking.1159.78 +8.28 +0.63%
IDX Property….691 +2.60 +0.55%

Indo10Yr….7.3781 -0.0232 -0.31%
ICBI……..333.8328 +0.5965 +0.18%
US10Yr……3.6170 -0.0340 -0.93%
VIX……….29.07 -1.03 -3.42%

USDIndx 110.1990 -1.3440 -1.20%👍
Como Indx..280.43 +7.61 +2.79%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..149.65 +5.24 +3.63%‼️
.
IndoCDS 142.38 -18.57 -11.54%👍
(5-yr INOCD5) (28/9)

IDR……15247.50 -55.50 -0.36%‼️
Jisdor..15276.00 -17.00 -0.11%‼️

Euro……..0.9984 +0.0158 +1.61%‼️

TLKM……..29.36 +0.16 +0.55%
(4485)
EIDO……..24.05 +0.49 +2.08%
EEM………36.61 +1.16 +3.27%

Oil…………86.52 +3.20 +3.84%‼️
Gold ……1730.40 +22.70 +1.33%‼️
Timah….20059 -575.00 -2.79%
(Closed 03/10)
Nickel…21971.00 +672.00 +3.16%‼️
(Closed 04/10)
Silver…….21.10 +0.33 +1.59%
Copper….349.00 +7.25 +2.12%

Nturl Gas…..6.825 +0.311 +4.74%‼️

Ammonia..4373.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(29/9)

Coal price….404.00 +2.50 +0.62%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….410.00 -2.50 -0.61%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….408.00 -1.50 -0.37%
(Des/Newcastle)
Coal price….301.00 -14.85 -4.70%‼️
(Okt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….299.55 -14.30 -4.56%
(Nov/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….297.95 -12.90 -4.15%‼️
(Des/Rotterdam)

CPO(Des)……3615 +187 +5.46%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn…………683.00 +2.25 +0.33%
SoybeanOil….66.00 +1.68 +2.65%
Wheat……..903.00 -9.00 -0.99%

Wood pulp…6720.00 unch +0%
(Closed 04/10)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Semua index regional naik kemarin, US closing ijo tebel, europe juga, malah perancis index naik sampe diatas 4%

Hampir semua commodity naik kecuali timah, CPO naik tinggi, kita cermati apakah ini awal bangunnya saham CPO yang lama banget bearish

IHSG – stoch buy signal, macd down, histogram mulai ngebalik, MFI sw, 2 hari FNB, bandar flat, testing breakout cloud ichimoku, sedang menunggu konfirmasi apakah wave 2 sudah finished, karena levelnya sudah tercapai tapi masih ada gap belum tertutup di 6740. LR mantul sebelum kena lower channel, DMI mulai contraction. Spec buy dan bottom fishing udah ok dimulai, full muatan jangan dulu

Leading sector Consumer Non-Cyclicals, tapi yang menarik diikuti dan bisa long run keliatannya Energy dan Basic Materials yang baru mulai gerak

Global Update:

September 15th, 2022

Good morning,

U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday after an indecisive trading session that saw the major averages spend time on both sides of the flatline throughout the day.

Dow…….31135 +30.1 +0.10%
Nasdaq.11720 +86.1 +0.74%
S&P 500..3946 +13.3 +0.34%

FTSE…….7277 -108.6 -1.47%
Dax……..13028 -160.95 -1.22%
CAC……..6222 -23.3 -0.37%

Nikkei….27819 -796.01 -2.78%
HSI……..18847 -479.8 -2.48%
Shanghai..3238 -26.3 -0.80%
ST Times..3258 -32.1 -0.97%

IDX…….7278.08 -39.94 -0.55%
LQ45…1035.52 -7.12 -0.68%

IDX Energy..2080.93 +17.15 +0.83%
IDX Bsc Mat.1318.20 -16.22 -1.22%
IDX Industrl..1375.56 -14.34 -1.07%
IDXNONCYC..705.24 +1.44 +0.21%
IDX Hlthcare.1452.34 -11.92 -0.81%
IDXCYCLIC…..879.15 -1.64 -0.19%
IDX Techno..7606.59 -41.40 -0.54%
IDX Transp…1927.56 +0.55 +0.03%
IDX Infrast…..1032.19 -2.43 -0.23%
IDX Finance 1526.83 -9.79 -0.64%
IDX Banking..1183.47 -9.60 -0.80%
IDX Property…729 -4.60 -0.63%

Indo10Yr….7.1892 +0.0147 +0.20%
ICBI……..336.4977 -0.2895 -0.09%
US10Yr……3.4120 -0.0100 -0.29%
VIX……….26.16 -1.11 -4.07%

USDIndx 109.6580 -0.1570 -0.14%
Como Indx..286.33 +0.56 +0.20%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..153.84 -1.28 -0.83%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14907.50 +56.00 +0.38%‼
Jisdor..14923.00 +62.00 +0.42%‼

Euro……..0.9983 +0.0013 +0.13%

TLKM……..29.89 +0.31 +1.05%
(4460)
EIDO………24.67 +0.34 +1.40%
EEM………38.55 +0.19 +0.50%

Oil…………..8.88 +1.17 +1.33%
Gold ……..1706.80 -5.90 -0.34%
Timah. .21380.00 -81.00 -0.38%
( Closed 13/9)
Nickel…24333.00 +190.50 +0.79%
(Closed 14/9)
Silver…….19.60 +0.31 +1.61%
Copper….351.70 -1.40 -0.40%

Nturl Gas…..9.081 +0.683 +8.13%‼

Ammonia..4156.67 +23.34 +0.56%
China
(Domestic Price)(13/9)

Coal price….444.20 +4.85 +1.10%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….439.20 +10.55 +2.46%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….434.15 +12.15 +2.88%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….336.00 unch +0%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….319.50 +5.00 +1.59%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price…321.60 +6.85 +2.17%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3858 -42 -1.07%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..682.25 -10.50 -1.52%
SoybeanOil…64.87 -1.86 -2.79%
Wheat……..872.25 +11.75 +1.37%

Wood pulp…6750.00 unch +0%
(Closed 14/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US abis drop gede rebound sedikit… Europe merah, asia merah

Commodity terkait energy naik semua, oil natural gas coal, mungkinkah mau extend wave 5 sektor energi? Ya mungkin aja sih…

Gold Timah Copper turun, nickel silver naik

Masih bertahan diatas EMA 20, kita wait and see, bikin new record high atau tidak IHSG, kondisi ekonomi sih belum mendukung

IHSG – stoch sell, macd buy, foreign masih entry, bandar masih akum, MFI slow tapi masih naik, masih dibawah resistance kuat – level harga All Time High, masih galau ini, tapi masih terlalu dini untuk window dressing, jadi kayanya wave 2 dulu tetep

Property yang firm, energy kemaren jalan tapi dari sector rotation kemungkinan bukan gilirannya lagi untuk jalan. Basic Materials dan Financials sedikit melemah, prediction saya Basic Materials yang lanjut, financials udahan dulu. Next nya transport

Global Update:

September 06th, 2022

Good morning,

US markets on holiday due to Labor Day

Dow…….31318 closed +0%
Nasdaq.11631 closed +0%
S&P 500..3924 closed +0%

FTSE…….7287 +6.2 +0.09%
Dax……..12761 -289.5 -2.22%
CAC……..6093 -74.3 -1.20%

Nikkei….27620 -31.2 -0.11%
HSI……..19226 -226.4 -1.16%
Shanghai..3200 +13.4 +0.42%
ST Times..3215 +9.8 +0.31%

IDX…….7231.88 +54.70 +0.76%
LQ45…1029.30 +9.50 +0.93%

IDX Energy..2013.28 +74.26 +3.83%‼️
IDX Bsc Mat.1298.06 +7.20 +0.56%
IDX Industrl..1360.09 +24.18 +1.81%
IDXNONCYC..709.23 -0.52 -0.07%
IDX Hlthcare.1415.78 -16.67 -1.16%
IDXCYCLIC…..881.16 -1.50 -0.17%
IDX Techno..7557.48 -27.86 -0.37%
IDX Transp…1927.41 -35.37 -1.80%
IDX Infrast…..1048.07 +3.66 +0.35%
IDX Finance 1524.75 +5.16 +0.34%
IDX Banking..1172.16 +12.19 +1.05%
IDX Property…704 +4.00 +0.56%

Indo10Yr….7.1767 +0.0120 +0.17%
ICBI……..335.9333 -0.3614 -0.11%
US10Yr……3.1930 closed +0%
VIX…………25.99 closed +0%

USDIndx 109.8190 +0.2850 +0.26%‼️
Como Indx..284.47 -0.15 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..146.38 closed +0%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 +2.31 +1.92%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14907.00 +11.50 +0.08%‼️
Jisdor..14920.00 +20.00 +0.13%‼️

Euro………0.9930 -0.0024 -0.24%

TLKM……..30.30 closed +0%
(4521)
EIDO………24.04 closed +0%
EEM………38.76 closed +0%

Oil…………..88.82 +1.95 +2.24%
Gold ……..1721.20 -14.00 -0.08%
Timah. .21060.00 +95.00 +0.45%
( Closed 02/9)
Nickel…21593.00 +1119.00 +5.47%‼️
(Closed 05/9)
Silver…….18.02 +0.14 +0.78%
Copper….345.85 +4.50 +1.32%

Nturl Gas…..8.763 -0.139 -1.56%

Ammonia….3866.67 – –
China
(Domestic Price)(01/9)

Coal price….457.80 +22.80 +5.24%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….463.75 +22.85 +5.18%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….451.50 +20.95 +4.87%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….392.50 +16.50 +4.39%‼️
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….392.50 +24.15 +6.56%‼️
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….385.00 +23.40 +6.47%‼️
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3912 +11 +0.28%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..665.75 closed +0%
SoybeanOil…66.25 closed +0%
Wheat……..811.00 closed +0%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 05/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US tutup, eropa merah, asia varied, IHSG bikin higher high, apakah akah lanjut wave 1 nya diperpanjang ke atas? Kita tunggu saja… Sementara sih secara keilmuan baru menggeser titik puncak wave 1 sedikit, belum tentu akan long run

Commodity yang merah cuma gold sama natural gas, yang lain semua ijo, coal naik lagi tinggi, nikel juga naik tinggi

Untuk lanjut break high dan bikin new All Time High kayanya kemungkinan kecil sekali, sekarang belum bisa dikatakan ekonomi pulih, masih kondisi krisis, walau memang LK hampir semua emiten meningkat dibanding masa covid sedang merajalela. Masih menduga bahwa akan mentok sebelum mencapai record high dan akan bikin wave 2

IHSG – di banyak indicator bilang bagus dan akan lanjut, foreign juga netbuy terus, bandar akum terus, MFI naik… Tapi fundamentally rapuh, jadi prepare aja kalo market tiba2 ngebalik. Jangan masuk full cash dulu, masuknya hanya di energy sama finance kalo mau, dan pantau ketat, pasang stop loss/trailing stop.

Energy, Financials, Basic Materials, cocok sama kenaikan commodities. Industrials sama Infrastructure juga ada gerakan bagus, tapi belum dulu deh

Healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals sudah cape, ga jadi lari, keliatannya duit market maker masuk ke financials dulu

Global update:

August 29th, 2022

Good morning,

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week

Stocks plummeted Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

Dow…….32283 -1000.4 -3.03%‼️
Nasdaq.12142 -497.6 -3.94%‼️
S&P 500..4058 -141.5 -3.37%‼️

FTSE…….7427 -52.4 -0.70%
Dax……..12972 -248.6 -1.88%
CAC……..6274 -107.3 -1.68%

Nikkei….28641 +162.4 +0.57%
HSI……..20170 +201.7 +1.01%
Shanghai..3236 -10.02 -0.31%
ST Times..3250 +1.7 +0.05%

IDX…….7135.25 -38.96 -0.54%
LQ45…1014.27 -7.21 -0.71%

IDX Energy…1904.45 +14.65 +0.78%
IDX Bsc Mat.1293.23 -6.09 -0.47%
IDX Industrl..1307.06 -9.66 -0.73%
IDXNONCYC..708.78 -1.63 -0.23%
IDX Hlthcare.1405.16 +1.88 +0.13%
IDXCYCLIC…..893.39 +0.04 +0.08%
IDX Techno..7976.84 -91.82 -1.14%
IDX Transp…1978.52 -19.78 -0.99%
IDX Infrast…..1035.59 +2.03 +0.20%
IDX Finance 1499.65 -4.63 -0.31%
IDX Banking..1134.19 -3.91 -0.34%
IDX Property…712 +2.80 +0.40%

Indo10Yr….7.1619 +0.0082 +0.12%
ICBI……..336.3949 -0.1514 -0.04%
US10Yr…..3.0350 +0.0090 +0.30%
VIX……….25.56 +3.78 +17.36%‼️

USDIndx 108.8030 +0.4020 +0.37%
Como Indx..299.09 +2.34 +0.79%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..159.48 +1.07 +0.67%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14816.50 -8.00 -0.05%
Jisdor..14814.00 -13.00 -0.09%

Euro………0.9966 -0.0012 -0.12%

TLKM……..29.93 -0.48 -1.58%
(4434)
EIDO………23.56 -0.37 -1.55%
EEM………40.01 -0.60 -1.48%

Oil…………..93.06 +0.37 +0.40%
Gold ……..1749.80 -20.70 -1.17%
Timah. .24750.00 +440.00 +1.81%
( Closed 26/8)
Nickel….21695.50 +18.50 +0.09%
(Closed 27/8)
Silver…….18.83 -0.33 -1.72%
Copper….369.70 -0.25 -0.07%

Nturl Gas…..9.320 -0.041 -0.44%

Ammonia….3733.33 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(25/8)

Coal price….427.00 +14.25 +3.45%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….419.85 +9.85 +2.40%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….411.00 +7.30 +1.81%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….383.10 +8.85 +2.36%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….374.65 +9.65 +2.64%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….365.85 +9.50 +2.67%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4181 -74 -1.74%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..664.25 +14.25 +2.19%
SoybeanOil…66.88 +0.97 +1.47%
Wheat……..805.25 +16.25 +2.06%

Wood pulp…6714.00 unch +0%
(Closed 28/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US DJI NASDAQ drop 3% pas jum’at, ngeri banget… Europe merah juga tapi ga separah itu. Asia masih ada ijo di Nikkei Hangseng sama Kospi. Semoga IHSG ga separah itu dibantingnya. Sudah diperkirakan mau wave 2 tapi kalo terlalu dalem turunnya juga saham yang harusnya jadwal jadi ganjel index bisa ikut keseret

Gold silver copper merah, timah nikel ijo, oil ijo coal tipis, gas merah, semoga masih on track energy healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals jagain index

Sudah firm ya, MACD sell signal… Brace yourself for the ride downhill. Yang diluar healthcare energy dan consumer non-cyclicals mending dibuang kalo perlu cutloss dulu. Nanti belanja lagi dibawah. US merah dalem banget, IHSG kemungkinan besar ikut merah dalem, bisa jadi semua sektor juga keseret kebawah

IHSG – semua menunjukkan mau turun dulu, stoch down, macd sell, bandar distribusi, FNS, MFI down, LR down, PSAR down, ada gap dibawah, memang alligator dan supertrend masih up, tapi lagging indicator buat main major trend kan memang suka telat.

Masih Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, disusul lagi sama Consumer Cyclicals. Industrials emerging, tapi index mau turun gini kayanya belum jalan lagi dulu