Global Update:

September 06th, 2022

Good morning,

US markets on holiday due to Labor Day

Dow…….31318 closed +0%
Nasdaq.11631 closed +0%
S&P 500..3924 closed +0%

FTSE…….7287 +6.2 +0.09%
Dax……..12761 -289.5 -2.22%
CAC……..6093 -74.3 -1.20%

Nikkei….27620 -31.2 -0.11%
HSI……..19226 -226.4 -1.16%
Shanghai..3200 +13.4 +0.42%
ST Times..3215 +9.8 +0.31%

IDX…….7231.88 +54.70 +0.76%
LQ45…1029.30 +9.50 +0.93%

IDX Energy..2013.28 +74.26 +3.83%‼️
IDX Bsc Mat.1298.06 +7.20 +0.56%
IDX Industrl..1360.09 +24.18 +1.81%
IDXNONCYC..709.23 -0.52 -0.07%
IDX Hlthcare.1415.78 -16.67 -1.16%
IDXCYCLIC…..881.16 -1.50 -0.17%
IDX Techno..7557.48 -27.86 -0.37%
IDX Transp…1927.41 -35.37 -1.80%
IDX Infrast…..1048.07 +3.66 +0.35%
IDX Finance 1524.75 +5.16 +0.34%
IDX Banking..1172.16 +12.19 +1.05%
IDX Property…704 +4.00 +0.56%

Indo10Yr….7.1767 +0.0120 +0.17%
ICBI……..335.9333 -0.3614 -0.11%
US10Yr……3.1930 closed +0%
VIX…………25.99 closed +0%

USDIndx 109.8190 +0.2850 +0.26%‼️
Como Indx..284.47 -0.15 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..146.38 closed +0%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 +2.31 +1.92%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14907.00 +11.50 +0.08%‼️
Jisdor..14920.00 +20.00 +0.13%‼️

Euro………0.9930 -0.0024 -0.24%

TLKM……..30.30 closed +0%
(4521)
EIDO………24.04 closed +0%
EEM………38.76 closed +0%

Oil…………..88.82 +1.95 +2.24%
Gold ……..1721.20 -14.00 -0.08%
Timah. .21060.00 +95.00 +0.45%
( Closed 02/9)
Nickel…21593.00 +1119.00 +5.47%‼️
(Closed 05/9)
Silver…….18.02 +0.14 +0.78%
Copper….345.85 +4.50 +1.32%

Nturl Gas…..8.763 -0.139 -1.56%

Ammonia….3866.67 – –
China
(Domestic Price)(01/9)

Coal price….457.80 +22.80 +5.24%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….463.75 +22.85 +5.18%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….451.50 +20.95 +4.87%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….392.50 +16.50 +4.39%‼️
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….392.50 +24.15 +6.56%‼️
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….385.00 +23.40 +6.47%‼️
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3912 +11 +0.28%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..665.75 closed +0%
SoybeanOil…66.25 closed +0%
Wheat……..811.00 closed +0%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 05/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US tutup, eropa merah, asia varied, IHSG bikin higher high, apakah akah lanjut wave 1 nya diperpanjang ke atas? Kita tunggu saja… Sementara sih secara keilmuan baru menggeser titik puncak wave 1 sedikit, belum tentu akan long run

Commodity yang merah cuma gold sama natural gas, yang lain semua ijo, coal naik lagi tinggi, nikel juga naik tinggi

Untuk lanjut break high dan bikin new All Time High kayanya kemungkinan kecil sekali, sekarang belum bisa dikatakan ekonomi pulih, masih kondisi krisis, walau memang LK hampir semua emiten meningkat dibanding masa covid sedang merajalela. Masih menduga bahwa akan mentok sebelum mencapai record high dan akan bikin wave 2

IHSG – di banyak indicator bilang bagus dan akan lanjut, foreign juga netbuy terus, bandar akum terus, MFI naik… Tapi fundamentally rapuh, jadi prepare aja kalo market tiba2 ngebalik. Jangan masuk full cash dulu, masuknya hanya di energy sama finance kalo mau, dan pantau ketat, pasang stop loss/trailing stop.

Energy, Financials, Basic Materials, cocok sama kenaikan commodities. Industrials sama Infrastructure juga ada gerakan bagus, tapi belum dulu deh

Healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals sudah cape, ga jadi lari, keliatannya duit market maker masuk ke financials dulu

Global update:

August 29th, 2022

Good morning,

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week

Stocks plummeted Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

Dow…….32283 -1000.4 -3.03%‼️
Nasdaq.12142 -497.6 -3.94%‼️
S&P 500..4058 -141.5 -3.37%‼️

FTSE…….7427 -52.4 -0.70%
Dax……..12972 -248.6 -1.88%
CAC……..6274 -107.3 -1.68%

Nikkei….28641 +162.4 +0.57%
HSI……..20170 +201.7 +1.01%
Shanghai..3236 -10.02 -0.31%
ST Times..3250 +1.7 +0.05%

IDX…….7135.25 -38.96 -0.54%
LQ45…1014.27 -7.21 -0.71%

IDX Energy…1904.45 +14.65 +0.78%
IDX Bsc Mat.1293.23 -6.09 -0.47%
IDX Industrl..1307.06 -9.66 -0.73%
IDXNONCYC..708.78 -1.63 -0.23%
IDX Hlthcare.1405.16 +1.88 +0.13%
IDXCYCLIC…..893.39 +0.04 +0.08%
IDX Techno..7976.84 -91.82 -1.14%
IDX Transp…1978.52 -19.78 -0.99%
IDX Infrast…..1035.59 +2.03 +0.20%
IDX Finance 1499.65 -4.63 -0.31%
IDX Banking..1134.19 -3.91 -0.34%
IDX Property…712 +2.80 +0.40%

Indo10Yr….7.1619 +0.0082 +0.12%
ICBI……..336.3949 -0.1514 -0.04%
US10Yr…..3.0350 +0.0090 +0.30%
VIX……….25.56 +3.78 +17.36%‼️

USDIndx 108.8030 +0.4020 +0.37%
Como Indx..299.09 +2.34 +0.79%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..159.48 +1.07 +0.67%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14816.50 -8.00 -0.05%
Jisdor..14814.00 -13.00 -0.09%

Euro………0.9966 -0.0012 -0.12%

TLKM……..29.93 -0.48 -1.58%
(4434)
EIDO………23.56 -0.37 -1.55%
EEM………40.01 -0.60 -1.48%

Oil…………..93.06 +0.37 +0.40%
Gold ……..1749.80 -20.70 -1.17%
Timah. .24750.00 +440.00 +1.81%
( Closed 26/8)
Nickel….21695.50 +18.50 +0.09%
(Closed 27/8)
Silver…….18.83 -0.33 -1.72%
Copper….369.70 -0.25 -0.07%

Nturl Gas…..9.320 -0.041 -0.44%

Ammonia….3733.33 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(25/8)

Coal price….427.00 +14.25 +3.45%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….419.85 +9.85 +2.40%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….411.00 +7.30 +1.81%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….383.10 +8.85 +2.36%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….374.65 +9.65 +2.64%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….365.85 +9.50 +2.67%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4181 -74 -1.74%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..664.25 +14.25 +2.19%
SoybeanOil…66.88 +0.97 +1.47%
Wheat……..805.25 +16.25 +2.06%

Wood pulp…6714.00 unch +0%
(Closed 28/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US DJI NASDAQ drop 3% pas jum’at, ngeri banget… Europe merah juga tapi ga separah itu. Asia masih ada ijo di Nikkei Hangseng sama Kospi. Semoga IHSG ga separah itu dibantingnya. Sudah diperkirakan mau wave 2 tapi kalo terlalu dalem turunnya juga saham yang harusnya jadwal jadi ganjel index bisa ikut keseret

Gold silver copper merah, timah nikel ijo, oil ijo coal tipis, gas merah, semoga masih on track energy healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals jagain index

Sudah firm ya, MACD sell signal… Brace yourself for the ride downhill. Yang diluar healthcare energy dan consumer non-cyclicals mending dibuang kalo perlu cutloss dulu. Nanti belanja lagi dibawah. US merah dalem banget, IHSG kemungkinan besar ikut merah dalem, bisa jadi semua sektor juga keseret kebawah

IHSG – semua menunjukkan mau turun dulu, stoch down, macd sell, bandar distribusi, FNS, MFI down, LR down, PSAR down, ada gap dibawah, memang alligator dan supertrend masih up, tapi lagging indicator buat main major trend kan memang suka telat.

Masih Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, disusul lagi sama Consumer Cyclicals. Industrials emerging, tapi index mau turun gini kayanya belum jalan lagi dulu

Global Update:

August 22th, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks fall Friday to notch weekly loss, S&P 500 snaps 4-week-long rally

Stocks tumbled on Friday as Wall Street’s summer rally faltered and rate hike fears resurfaced, leading the major averages to end the week on a sour note.

Dow…….33707 -292.3 -0.86%
Nasdaq.12705 -260.1 -2.01%
S&P 500..4228 -55.3 -1.29%

FTSE…….7550 +8.5 +0.11%
Dax……..13545 -152.9 -1.12%
CAC……..6496 -61.6 -0.94%

Nikkei….28930 -11.8 -0.04%
HSI……..19773 +9.1 +0.05%
Shanghai..3258 -19.5 -0.59%
ST Times..3247 -26.97 -0.82%

IDX…….7172.43 -14.12 -0.29%
LQ45…1022.99 -3.35 -0.33%

IDX Energy…1825.18 +9.81 +0.54%
IDX Bsc Mat.1310.37 -5.91 -0.45%
IDX Industrl..1322.31 -8.32 -0.63%
IDXNONCYC..713.09 +1.38 +0.19%
IDX Hlthcare.1407.90 +8.32 +0.59%
IDXCYCLIC…..894.77 +2.22 +0.25%
IDX Techno..8045.99 -6.50 -0.08%
IDX Transp…2075.11 -11.61 -0.56%
IDX Infrast…..1042.69 -1.80 -0.17%
IDX Finance 1506.21 -6.01 -0.40%
IDX Banking..1141.81 -9.99 -0.83%
IDX Property…715 -4.7 -0.65%

Indo10Yr….7.1655 +0.0140 +0.20%
ICBI……..336.2590 -0.1379 -0.04%
US10Yr…..2.9890 +0.1090 +3.78%
VIX………….19.56 -0.34 -1.71%

USDIndx 108.1690 +0.6850 +0.64%‼
Como Indx..292.03 +1.70 +0.59%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..157.48 +1.08 +0.69%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 +3.65 +3.40%‼
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14838.00 +1.50 +0.01%
Jisdor..14858 .00 +38.00 +0.24%

Euro………1.0040 -0.0049 -0.49%

TLKM……..30.66 -0.14 -0.45%
(4555)
EIDO………23.61 -0.25 -1.05%
EEM………39.90 -0.55 -1.36%

Oil…………..90.77 +0.14 +0.15%
Gold ……..1762.90 -9.60 -0.54%
Timah. .24795.00 +200. 00 +0.81%
( Closed 18/8)
Nickel….22071.00 +198.00 +0.91%
(Closed 18/8)
Silver…….19.18 -0.37 -1.89%
Copper….367.10 +2.20 +0.60%

Nturl Gas…..9.280 +0.108 +1.18%

Ammonia….3750.00 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(18/8)

Coal price….416.25 +2.35 +0.57%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….443.75 +8.75 +2.01%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….434.90 +8.60 +2.02%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….371.25 +6.25 +1.71%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….391.80 +12.70 +3.35%‼
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….380.25 +12.20 +3.29%‼
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4084 +37 +0.91%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..623.25 +7.50 +1.22%
SoybeanOil…65.70 +1.43 +2.22%
Wheat………771.00 +22.00 +2.94%

Wood pulp…6700.00 unch +0%
(Closed 21/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US closing jum’at merah lumayan dalem, overall merah juga, asia juga. Jadi kayanya ini IHSG wave 2

Harga commodity terkait energy, oil gas coal naik semua, sesuai sama gerakan sektoral nya juga

Metal varied, gold silver turun, timah nikel copper naik. CPO juga naik

FTSE GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX SERIES ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EX CHINA SEPTEMBER 2022 SEMI ANNUAL REVIEW

(The changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, 16 September 2022 (i.e. on Monday, 19 September 2022)

INDONESIA

• LARGE CAP

Inclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya) – Large Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid

• MID CAP

Inclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid
-MSIN (MNC Studios International) – Mid Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large

• SMALL CAP

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)

Exclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid

• MICRO CAP

Inclusions :
-ABMM (ABM Investama)
-ARCI (Archi Indonesia)
-NOBU (Bank Nationalnobu)
-BMSR (Bintang Mitra Semestaraya)
-BUDI (Budi Starch & Sweetener)
-DLTA (Delta Jakarta)
-IMAS (Indomobil Sukses Internasional)
-INDR (Indorama Synthetics)
-KAEF (Kimia Farma)
-PBID (Panca Budi Idaman)
-PANS (Panin Sekuritas)
-PTRO (Petrosea)
-RMKE (RMK Energy)
-SAMF (Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur)
-SPMA (Suparma)
-TRIM (Trimegah Sekuritas)
-CARE (Victoria Care)

Exclusions :
-BALI (Bali Towerindo Sentra)
-BULL (Buana Listya Tama)
-UFOE (Damai Sejahtera Abadi)
-INDY (Indika Energy Tbk PT)
-KIJA (Kawasan Industri Jababeka)
-RSGK (Kedoya Adyaraya)
-FILM (MD Pictures)
-MLPL (Multipolar)
-PZZA (Sarimelati Kencana)
-SSMS (Sawit Sumbermas Sarana )
-SMSM (Selamat Sempurna)
-RANC (Supra Boga Lestari)
-ESSA (Surya Esa Perkasa)
-TMAS (Temas)

• FTSE ALL-WORLD (LM)

Inclusions :
-ISAT (Indosat)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)

Exclusions : –

• FTSE ALL-CAPS (LMS)

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)

Exclusions : –

• FTSE TOTAL-CAP (LMSµ)

Inclusions : (Yang disini harusnya efek rebalancing jadi naik)
-ABMM (ABM Investama)
-ARCI (Archi Indonesia)
-NOBU (Bank Nationalnobu)
-BMSR (Bintang Mitra Semestaraya)
-BUDI (Budi Starch & Sweetener)
-DLTA (Delta Jakarta)
-IMAS (Indomobil Sukses Internasional)
-INDR (Indorama Synthetics)
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-KAEF (Kimia Farma)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-PBID (Panca Budi Idaman)
-PANS (Panin Sekuritas)
-PTRO (Petrosea)
-RMKE (RMK Energy)
-SAMF (Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)
-SPMA (Suparma)
-TRIM (Trimegah Sekuritas)
-CARE (Victoria Care Indonesia)

Exclusions : -(Yang disini efek rebalancing harusnya turun…)
-BALI (Bali Towerindo Sentra)
-BULL (Buana Listya Tama)
-UFOE (Damai Sejahtera Abadi)
-INDY (Indika Energy Tbk PT)
-KIJA (Kawasan Industri Jababeka)
-RSGK (Kedoya Adyaraya)
-FILM (MD Pictures)
-MLPL (Multipolar)
-PZZA (Sarimelati Kencana)
-SSMS (Sawit Sumbermas Sarana)
-SMSM (Selamat Sempurna)
-RANC (Supra Boga Lestari)
-ESSA (Surya Esa Perkasa)
-TMAS (Temas)

 

*****

(Listri Samudra | Phintraco Sekuritas (AT), Source : FTSE – Disclaimer On)

Ini penting buat dicermati pas ujung bulan, fund manager luar akan tuker barang yang keluar dari index FTSE sama yang baru masuk. Ini bentuk pertanggungjawaban dia ke client nya, bahwa mereka invest di saham yang di-rate bagus oleh FTSE. Kalaupun misalnya jual rugi ga masalah mereka

 

Candle terakhir IHSG kaya candle rejection, Long Upper Shadow, beware mau jadi drop wave 2 dulu…

IHSG – stoch sw, macd sw, FF up, bandar jum’at distribusi, MFI down, LR kaya mentok, PSAR masih UP. Rawan banget koreksi ini…

Global Update:

July 27th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow sheds more than 200 points after Walmart profit warning, S&P 500 falls 1%

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after Walmart cut its earnings forecast, sending other retail shares lower and adding to concern that consumer spending might not be strong enough to keep the U.S. out of a recession.

Dow…….31762 -228.5 -0.71%
Nasdaq.11563 -220.1 -1.87%
S&P 500..3921 -45.8 -1.15%

FTSE…….7306 -0.02 -0.00%
Dax……..13097 -113.4 -0.86%
CAC……..6211 -26.1 -0.42%

Nikkei….27655 -44.04 -0.16%
HSI……..20906 +342.9 +1.67%
Shanghai..3277 +27.1 +0.83%
ST Times..3192 +11.7 +0.37%

IDX…….6871.54 +13.13 +0.19%
LQ45…..968.48 +1.35 +0.14%

IDX Energy…1762.10 +21.00 +1.21%
IDX Bsc Mat.1270.86 -4.39 -0.34%
IDX Industrl..1221.16 +1.34 +0.11%
IDXNONCYC..721.07 -3.54 -0.49%
IDX Hlthcare.1509.16 -5.80 -0.38%
IDXCYCLIC…..881.11 -6.12 -0.69%
IDX Techno..7632.21 -185.40 -2.37%
IDX Transp…1957.78 +2.17 +0.11%
IDX Infrast……989.59 +7.44 +0.75%
IDX Finance 1478.35 +14.17 +0.97%
IDX Banking..1101.28 +11.21 +1.03%
IDX Property…….676 -1.20 -0.18%

Indo10Yr….7.4649 -0.0268 -0.36%
ICBI……….329.0763 +0.5530 +0.17%
US10Yr…..2.7870 -0.0330 -1.17%
VIX…………24.69 +1.33 +5.69%

USDIndx 107.1890 +0.7060 +0.66%‼
Como Indx..286.50 +1.74 +0.61%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..148.42 +0.22 +0.15%

IndoCDS…135.05 +2.78 +2.10%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14993.00 unch +0%
Jisdor..14984.00 -8.00 -0.05%

Euro………1.0129 -0.0091 -0.89%

TLKM……..28.13 +0.18 +0.64%
(4215)
EIDO………22.49 -0.11 -0.49%
EEM………39.25 -0.31 -0.78%

Oil…………95.52 -0.79 -0.82%
Gold ……1734.30 -0.50 -0.03%
Timah. .24947.00 -317.00 -1.27%
( Closed 25/7)
Nickel..22102.50 -430.00 -1.95%
(Closed 26/7)
Silver…….18.56 +0.26 +1.42%
Copper….339.95 +4.55 +1.36%

Nturl Gas…..8.785- +0.167 +1.94%

Ammonia….3890.00 +200 +5.42%‼
China
(Domestic Price)(25/7)

Coal price….414.00 +3.75 +0.91%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…440.00 +28.95 +7.04%‼
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…389.50 +2.15 +0.56%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…388.00 +24.00 +6.59%‼
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Okt)…..3788 +142 +3.89%‼
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………600.75 +17.00 +2.91%
SoybeanOil…57.95 +0.40 +0.69%
Wheat………803.75 +33.75 +4.38%‼

Wood pulp…6650.00 +10 +0.15%
(Closed 26/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, yBursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

US lanjut merah rada dalem… europe juga merah, asia kebanyakan ijo kecuali nikkei

Masih membuka kemungkinan index tutup gap dulu

Oil gold tin nickel turun, silver copper gas naik, coal lanjut naik lagi, cpo juga

Kemungkinan ANTM INCO TINS koreksi dulu while saham saham coal lanjut naik. AALI LSIP kemarin diperkirakan langsung lanjut tapi malah koreksi, semoga ini lanjut naik lagi

In general sektor sektor tidak menggembirakan. Walau ada beberapa saham di dalam masing2 sektor yang terlihat bergerak, kaya saham2 coal, UNTR.