Global Update:

August 24th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow, S&P 500 fall Tuesday, notching three-day losing streak

Stocks fell Tuesday following its worst day since June as investors braced for a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve.

Dow…….32910 -154.02 -0.47%
Nasdaq.12381 -0.3 -0.00%
S&P 500..4129 -9.3 -0.22%

FTSE…….7488 -46.7 -0.61%
Dax……..13194 -36.3 -0.27%
CAC……..6362 -16.7 -0.26%

Nikkei….28453 -341.8 -1.19%
HSI……..19503 -153.7 -0.78%
Shanghai..3276 -1.6 -0.05%
ST Times..3246 -16.4 -0.50%

IDX…….7163.27 +55.8 +0.78%
LQ45…1023.00 +8.32 +0.82%

IDX Energy…1844.28 +58.98 +3.30%
IDX Bsc Mat.1301.17 +21.23 +1.66%
IDX Industrl..1305.95 +8.32 +0.64%
IDXNONCYC..714.18 +0.95 +0.13%
IDX Hlthcare.1413.88 +8.63 +0.61%
IDXCYCLIC…..897.39 +4.75 +0.53%
IDX Techno..7875.48 +51.01 +0.65%
IDX Transp…2010.54 -7.43 -0.37%
IDX Infrast…..1038.13 +8.32 +0.81%
IDX Finance 1501.17 +5.51 +0.37%
IDX Banking..1138.31 +2.75 +0.24%
IDX Property…707 +3.00 +0.43%

Indo10Yr….7.1870 +0.009 +0.13%
ICBI……..335.7238 -0.2426 -0.07%
US10Yr…..3.0540 +0.0170 +0.56%
VIX……….24.11 +0.31 +1.30%

USDIndx 108.6240 -0.4220 -0.39%
Como Indx..296.31 +3.48 +1.19%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..157.63 +0.08 +0.05%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14837.50 -54.00 -0.36%
Jisdor..14893 .00 +11.00 +0.07%

Euro………0.9970 +0.0028 +0.28%‼️

TLKM……..31.08 -0.03 -0.10%
(4629)
EIDO………23.76 +0.41 +1.76%
EEM………39.76 +0.21 +0.53%

Oil…………..93.75 +3.52 +3.90%
Gold ……..1760.90 +12.50 +0.71%
Timah. .24795.00 -330.00 -1.33%
( Closed 22/8)
Nickel….21851.00 -543.00 -2.42%‼️
(Closed 23/8)
Silver…….19.10 +0.10 +0.53%
Copper….367.90 +2.55 +0.70%

Nturl Gas…..9.242 -0.551 -5.63%‼️

Ammonia….3733.33 -16.67 -0.44%
China
(Domestic Price)(22/8)

Coal price….417.60 -0.75 -0.18%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….425.00 -20.50 -4.60%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….420.00 -20.25 -4.60%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….370.00 -7.75 -2.05%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….379.00 -27.10 -6.67%‼️
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….371.00 -26.45 -6.65%‼️
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4237 +74 +1.78%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..655.25 +26.25 +4.17%‼️
SoybeanOil…66.92 +0.57 +0.86%
Wheat………800.50 +12.25 +1.55%

Wood pulp…6700.00 unch +0%
(Closed 23/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US masih lanjut merah walau ga terlalu dalem, europe sama asia juga, kecuali IDX yang maksa tutup gap jadi ijo sendiri, so kemungkinan besar lanjut kebawah hari ini, sesuai jadwal wave 2

Oil naik, ELSA sama MEDC lanjut kayanya, gold silver copper ijo, timah nikel merah, kayanya tapi ga akan ngaruh banyak ke MDKA ANTM INCO TINS. Market globalnya lagi jelek

Gas turun gede, coal turun dikit, masih diatas 400, masih long bullish

CPO naik, consumer lagi naik juga, kita assess AALI sama LSIP nanti

Udah beres tutup gap, keliatannya lanjut ke bawah, hati hati yang pegang barang, kalo profit TP setengah dulu lah, kalo masih pede mau naik, jaga2 ready cash untuk belanja lagi nanti di ujung wave 2

IHSG – prepare worst case scenario, dibawa tutup gap 6740. Walau dari theory elliot wave 2 berhenti di fibo 38 @6973 juga sah sah aja

Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, Consumer Cyclicals

Global Update:

Dari Phintraco ga ada update market, kita liat dari investing.com aja ya

US merah dalem, europe juga merah, asia jelas udah duluan merah, IHSG sempet minus 1.5%-an, closing 0.9% merah. Wave 2 it is guys, no need to be affraid, emang market mah begitu

Komoditi naik semua, atau bisa dibilang kebalik sih, ketika semua naik, berarti sebenernya dollarnya yang turun.

Semoga ini berarti energy akan lanjut dan basic material ga terlalu dalem dibanting

Asumsi forecast gerakan nya gini ya berdasarkan elliot wave theory, jadi sampe september nanti wajarnya downtrend dulu, jangan pegang barang panjang2 kalo lagi downtrend

Kemaren merah dalem tapi FNB gede, dapet harga obral pemain asing. Ada opening gap, dan merahnya dalem, jadi most like technically hari ini ada rebound dulu. Jangan buat buy, dipake buat sell barang2 yang sektornya bukan Healthcare Energy dan Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Healthcare Energy Consumer Non-Cyclicals, kalo dari cacing RSI ini sama Property dan Consumer Cyclicals juga, tapi chart lain nya ga setuju dengan itu

Global Update:

August 22th, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks fall Friday to notch weekly loss, S&P 500 snaps 4-week-long rally

Stocks tumbled on Friday as Wall Street’s summer rally faltered and rate hike fears resurfaced, leading the major averages to end the week on a sour note.

Dow…….33707 -292.3 -0.86%
Nasdaq.12705 -260.1 -2.01%
S&P 500..4228 -55.3 -1.29%

FTSE…….7550 +8.5 +0.11%
Dax……..13545 -152.9 -1.12%
CAC……..6496 -61.6 -0.94%

Nikkei….28930 -11.8 -0.04%
HSI……..19773 +9.1 +0.05%
Shanghai..3258 -19.5 -0.59%
ST Times..3247 -26.97 -0.82%

IDX…….7172.43 -14.12 -0.29%
LQ45…1022.99 -3.35 -0.33%

IDX Energy…1825.18 +9.81 +0.54%
IDX Bsc Mat.1310.37 -5.91 -0.45%
IDX Industrl..1322.31 -8.32 -0.63%
IDXNONCYC..713.09 +1.38 +0.19%
IDX Hlthcare.1407.90 +8.32 +0.59%
IDXCYCLIC…..894.77 +2.22 +0.25%
IDX Techno..8045.99 -6.50 -0.08%
IDX Transp…2075.11 -11.61 -0.56%
IDX Infrast…..1042.69 -1.80 -0.17%
IDX Finance 1506.21 -6.01 -0.40%
IDX Banking..1141.81 -9.99 -0.83%
IDX Property…715 -4.7 -0.65%

Indo10Yr….7.1655 +0.0140 +0.20%
ICBI……..336.2590 -0.1379 -0.04%
US10Yr…..2.9890 +0.1090 +3.78%
VIX………….19.56 -0.34 -1.71%

USDIndx 108.1690 +0.6850 +0.64%‼
Como Indx..292.03 +1.70 +0.59%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..157.48 +1.08 +0.69%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 +3.65 +3.40%‼
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14838.00 +1.50 +0.01%
Jisdor..14858 .00 +38.00 +0.24%

Euro………1.0040 -0.0049 -0.49%

TLKM……..30.66 -0.14 -0.45%
(4555)
EIDO………23.61 -0.25 -1.05%
EEM………39.90 -0.55 -1.36%

Oil…………..90.77 +0.14 +0.15%
Gold ……..1762.90 -9.60 -0.54%
Timah. .24795.00 +200. 00 +0.81%
( Closed 18/8)
Nickel….22071.00 +198.00 +0.91%
(Closed 18/8)
Silver…….19.18 -0.37 -1.89%
Copper….367.10 +2.20 +0.60%

Nturl Gas…..9.280 +0.108 +1.18%

Ammonia….3750.00 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(18/8)

Coal price….416.25 +2.35 +0.57%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….443.75 +8.75 +2.01%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….434.90 +8.60 +2.02%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….371.25 +6.25 +1.71%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….391.80 +12.70 +3.35%‼
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….380.25 +12.20 +3.29%‼
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4084 +37 +0.91%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..623.25 +7.50 +1.22%
SoybeanOil…65.70 +1.43 +2.22%
Wheat………771.00 +22.00 +2.94%

Wood pulp…6700.00 unch +0%
(Closed 21/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US closing jum’at merah lumayan dalem, overall merah juga, asia juga. Jadi kayanya ini IHSG wave 2

Harga commodity terkait energy, oil gas coal naik semua, sesuai sama gerakan sektoral nya juga

Metal varied, gold silver turun, timah nikel copper naik. CPO juga naik

FTSE GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX SERIES ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EX CHINA SEPTEMBER 2022 SEMI ANNUAL REVIEW

(The changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, 16 September 2022 (i.e. on Monday, 19 September 2022)

INDONESIA

• LARGE CAP

Inclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya) – Large Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid

• MID CAP

Inclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid
-MSIN (MNC Studios International) – Mid Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large

• SMALL CAP

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)

Exclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid

• MICRO CAP

Inclusions :
-ABMM (ABM Investama)
-ARCI (Archi Indonesia)
-NOBU (Bank Nationalnobu)
-BMSR (Bintang Mitra Semestaraya)
-BUDI (Budi Starch & Sweetener)
-DLTA (Delta Jakarta)
-IMAS (Indomobil Sukses Internasional)
-INDR (Indorama Synthetics)
-KAEF (Kimia Farma)
-PBID (Panca Budi Idaman)
-PANS (Panin Sekuritas)
-PTRO (Petrosea)
-RMKE (RMK Energy)
-SAMF (Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur)
-SPMA (Suparma)
-TRIM (Trimegah Sekuritas)
-CARE (Victoria Care)

Exclusions :
-BALI (Bali Towerindo Sentra)
-BULL (Buana Listya Tama)
-UFOE (Damai Sejahtera Abadi)
-INDY (Indika Energy Tbk PT)
-KIJA (Kawasan Industri Jababeka)
-RSGK (Kedoya Adyaraya)
-FILM (MD Pictures)
-MLPL (Multipolar)
-PZZA (Sarimelati Kencana)
-SSMS (Sawit Sumbermas Sarana )
-SMSM (Selamat Sempurna)
-RANC (Supra Boga Lestari)
-ESSA (Surya Esa Perkasa)
-TMAS (Temas)

• FTSE ALL-WORLD (LM)

Inclusions :
-ISAT (Indosat)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)

Exclusions : –

• FTSE ALL-CAPS (LMS)

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)

Exclusions : –

• FTSE TOTAL-CAP (LMSµ)

Inclusions : (Yang disini harusnya efek rebalancing jadi naik)
-ABMM (ABM Investama)
-ARCI (Archi Indonesia)
-NOBU (Bank Nationalnobu)
-BMSR (Bintang Mitra Semestaraya)
-BUDI (Budi Starch & Sweetener)
-DLTA (Delta Jakarta)
-IMAS (Indomobil Sukses Internasional)
-INDR (Indorama Synthetics)
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-KAEF (Kimia Farma)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-PBID (Panca Budi Idaman)
-PANS (Panin Sekuritas)
-PTRO (Petrosea)
-RMKE (RMK Energy)
-SAMF (Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)
-SPMA (Suparma)
-TRIM (Trimegah Sekuritas)
-CARE (Victoria Care Indonesia)

Exclusions : -(Yang disini efek rebalancing harusnya turun…)
-BALI (Bali Towerindo Sentra)
-BULL (Buana Listya Tama)
-UFOE (Damai Sejahtera Abadi)
-INDY (Indika Energy Tbk PT)
-KIJA (Kawasan Industri Jababeka)
-RSGK (Kedoya Adyaraya)
-FILM (MD Pictures)
-MLPL (Multipolar)
-PZZA (Sarimelati Kencana)
-SSMS (Sawit Sumbermas Sarana)
-SMSM (Selamat Sempurna)
-RANC (Supra Boga Lestari)
-ESSA (Surya Esa Perkasa)
-TMAS (Temas)

 

*****

(Listri Samudra | Phintraco Sekuritas (AT), Source : FTSE – Disclaimer On)

Ini penting buat dicermati pas ujung bulan, fund manager luar akan tuker barang yang keluar dari index FTSE sama yang baru masuk. Ini bentuk pertanggungjawaban dia ke client nya, bahwa mereka invest di saham yang di-rate bagus oleh FTSE. Kalaupun misalnya jual rugi ga masalah mereka

 

Candle terakhir IHSG kaya candle rejection, Long Upper Shadow, beware mau jadi drop wave 2 dulu…

IHSG – stoch sw, macd sw, FF up, bandar jum’at distribusi, MFI down, LR kaya mentok, PSAR masih UP. Rawan banget koreksi ini…

Global Update:

August 19th, 2022

Good morning,

S&P 500 and Nasdaq end Thursday slightly higher as summer rally struggles

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose slightly higher Thursday as traders fought to resurrect the recent market rally that slowed earlier this week.

Dow…….33999 +18.7 +0.06%
Nasdaq.12965 +27.2 +0.21%
S&P 500..4284 +9.7 +0.23%

FTSE…….7542 +26.1 +0.35%
Dax……..13697 +70.7 +0.52%
CAC……..6557 +29.1 +0.45%

Nikkei….28942 -280.6 -0.96%
HSI……..19764 -158.5 -0.80%
Shanghai..3278 -14.98 -0.46%
ST Times..3273 +10.7 +0.33%

IDX…….7186.56 +53.10 +0.74%
LQ45…1026.33 +9.98 +0.98%

IDX Energy…1815.37 +21.75 +1.21%
IDX Bsc Mat.1316.28 -7.58 -0.57%
IDX Industrl..1330.62 +15.07 +1.15%
IDXNONCYC..711.71 +6.77 +0.96%
IDX Hlthcare.1399.57 -6.78 -0.48%
IDXCYCLIC…..892.55 +2.26 +0.25%
IDX Techno..8052.49 -32.67 -0.40%
IDX Transp…2086.72 +6.03 +0.29%
IDX Infrast…..1044.49 -2.28 -0.22%
IDX Finance 1512.23 +3.31 +0.22%
IDX Banking..1151.40 +3.87 +0.34%
IDX Property…. – – -%

Indo10Yr….7.1515 +0.0021 +0.03%
ICBI……..336.3969 +0.1131 +0.03%
US10Yr…..2.8800 -0.0130 -0.45%
VIX………….19.56 -0.34 -1.71%

USDIndx 107.4840 +0.9100 +0.85%‼️
Como Indx..290.33 +1.46 +0.51%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..156.40 -0.02 -0.01%
.
IndoCDS…107.30 +5.70 +5.61%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14836.50 +68.50 +0.46%
Jisdor..14822 .00 +55.00 +0.37%

Euro………1.0089 -0.0090 -0.88%

TLKM……..30.80 +0.10 +0.33%
(4565)
EIDO………23.86 +0.02 +0.08%
EEM………40.45 -0.23 -0.57%

Oil…………..90.63 +3.13 +3.58%‼️
Gold ……..1772.50 -5.30 -0.30%
Timah. .24660.00 +60. 00 +0.24%
( Closed 17/8)
Nickel….21783.00 -188.50 -0.86%
(Closed 18/8)
Silver…….19.55 -0.30 -1.51%
Copper….364.90 +6.15 +1.77%

Nturl Gas…..9.172 -0.034 -0.37%

Ammonia….3750.00 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(17/8)

Coal price….413.90 unch +0%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….435.00 -1.90 -0.43%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….426.30 -2.30 -0.54%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….365.00 +5.25 +1.46%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….379.10 +3.70 +0.98%
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….370.30 +3.70 +1.01%
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4047 -153 -3.64%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..615.75 +3.75 +0.61%
SoybeanOil…64.27 -1.33 -2.03%
Wheat………749.00 -31.50 -4.04%‼️

Wood pulp…6700.00 -10 -0.15%
(Closed 18/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US lanjut ijo walau menipis, europe ijo, asia cuma IHSG sama Strait Times yang ijo, yang lain merah

Minyak rebound tapi masih dibawah 100 USB/barrel, coal tipis2 tapi masih tinggi di 413 usd/MT, metal2 ga kompak lagi, gold nickel silver turun, tin copper naik, gas turun tipis. Ga ada yang terlalu gimana gimana

Coal trend masih menguat sih, energy kayanya mau re-emerge jangka pendek. Issue batere belum digoreng lagi, tapi ga bikin ANTM INCO TINS dibanting juga, masih lingering aja

Kemarin IHSG ijo tebel, closing di atas candle yang tadinya dikira jadi titik high wave 1. Ternyata wave 1 nya masih mau lanjut, atau bisa jadi market maker mau bikin FOMO trap doang biar pada nyangkut.
Technically titik high wave B tanggal 9 juni 2022 jadi resistance kuat, kita taro jadi forecast ujung wave1 ya. Harus breakout dengan vol gede kalo index beneran mau rally long bullish… Mungkin saja sih, market discounts everything

IHSG – cuma stoch yang says down, yang lain memang masih up, even FNB dan bandarmology

Finance masih loyo, ini faktor utama kenapa saya masih berpikir sulit mau langsung long rally, big caps kebanyakan bank, kalo mau lari ya harusnya kaya kemaren-kemaren BBCA BBRI BMRI konsisten naik. Sekarang karena make GOTO melulu naikin index nya, jadi keliatan maksanya

Tinggal Property, infra cacing RSI nya mulai drop, consumer kemaren terutama ayam-ayaman kenceng, emang kebaca next consumer non-cyclicals, cyclicals sama healthcare