Daily Analysis 20220919

Global update:

September 19th, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks close lower on Friday, extending sell off for worst week since June for S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Stocks fell Friday as Wall Street wrapped up one of its worst weeks in months and traders reacted to an ugly earnings warning from FedEx about the global economy.

Dow…….30822 -139.4 -0.45%
Nasdaq.11448 -103.95 -0.90%
S&P 500..3873 -28.02 -0.72%

FTSE…….7237 -45.4 -0.62%
Dax……..12741 -215.4 -1.66%
CAC……..6077 -80.5 -1.31%

Nikkei….27568 -308.3 -1.11%
HSI……..18762 -168.7 -0.89%
Shanghai..3126 -73.5 -2.30%
ST Times..3268 +0.31 +0.01%

IDX…….7168.87 -136.73 -1.87%
LQ45…1016.01 -25.04 -2.40%

IDX Energy..2034.77 -44.48 -2.14%
IDX Bsc Mat.1304.13 +0.83 +0.06%
IDX Industrl..1363.44 -22.00 -1.59%
IDXNONCYC..702.55 -3.61 -0.51%
IDX Hlthcare.1449.21 -5.57 -0.38%
IDXCYCLIC…..880.03 -2.12 -0.24%
IDX Techno..7483.50 -35.58 -0.47%
IDX Transp…1903.48 -13.70 -0.71%
IDX Infrast…..1027.23 -3.55 -0.34%
IDX Finance 1512.67 -29.05 -1.88%
IDX Banking..1167.49 -33.02 -2.75%bangbang
IDX Property….737 -8.50 -1.14%

Indo10Yr….7.2394 +0.0326 +0.45%
ICBI……..335.6762 -0.6426 -0.19%
US10Yr……3.4480 -0.0110 -0.32%
VIX……….26.30 +0.03 +0.11%

USDIndx 109.7640 +0.0250 +0.02%
Como Indx..278.88 -2.12 -0.75%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..153.24 +1.24 +0.82%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14954.50 +57.00 +0.38%bangbang
Jisdor..14939.00 +40.00 +0.16%bangbang

Euro……..1.0016 +0.0022 +0.22%

TLKM……..29.20 -0.60 -2.01%
(4362)
EIDO………24.27 -0.48 -1.94%
EEM………37.79 -0.35 -0.92%
Oil…………..85.11 +0.38 +0.45%
Gold ……..1683.50 +11.80 +0.71%
Timah. .21137.00 +327.00 +1.57%
( Closed 16/9)
Nickel…24395.50 +1091.00 +4.68%bangbang
(Closed 16/9)
Silver…….19.38 +0.32 +1.68%
Copper….351.65 +4.96 +1.43%

Nturl Gas…..7.817 -0.475 -5.73%bangbang

Ammonia..4256.67 +66.67 +1.59%bangbang
China
(Domestic Price)(15/9)

Coal price….439.00 -6.50 -1.46%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….428.00 -10.00 -2.28%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….423.50 -11.00 -2.53%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….331.00 -6.20 -1.84%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….304.30 -13.70 -4.30%bangbang
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price..305.55 -12.45 -3.92%bangbang
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Des)……3801 -116 -2.96%bangbang
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..677.25 -0.25 -0.04%
SoybeanOil…65.96 +1.66 +2.58%
Wheat……..859.75 +14.75 +1.75%

Wood pulp…6750.00 unch +0%
(Closed 18/9)

copyrightPhintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Closing jum’at kompak merah semua, IHSG dalem banget dan ada opening gap down, membuka harapan rebound kecil hari ini… Energy dan Banking yang drop paling besar, udahan dulu emang keliatannya dari sisi sektornya.

Komoditas hampir semua naik kecuali natural gas sama coal dan  cpo, metal2 naik bisa berarti basic materials naik. Kita check chart sektornya later ya.

Keliatannya sesuai prediksi, sebelum santa claus rally akan drop dulu, bikin wave 3. Cocok nanti sama jadwal window dressing akhir tahun sekalian wave 3.

IHSG – stoch macd bilang sell, bandar dan foreign buang, MFI SW, ada banyak gap dibawah, LR bisa kemana aja, PSAR sell. Jelek banget ini…

IHSG kena regular bearish divergence MACD line dan MACD histogram, confirmed by MA10. So technically ngeri ini… Dan kemaren hype nya new ATH cuma segitu aja. Prepare buat terjunan wave 2. Kita liat sektor mana yang bakal jadi ganjel index

Bersih bersih dulu, mulai belanja lagi amannya setelah gap 6911 udah ketutup, kalo gap 6740 udah ketutup berani buy sambil merem, hehehe…

FTSE GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX SERIES ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EX CHINA SEPTEMBER 2022 SEMI ANNUAL REVIEW

(The changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, 16 September 2022 (i.e. on Monday, 19 September 2022)

INDONESIA

• LARGE CAP

Inclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya) – Large Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid

• MID CAP

Inclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid
-MSIN (MNC Studios International) – Mid Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large

• SMALL CAP

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)

Exclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid
*
(Listri Samudra | Phintraco Sekuritas (AT), Source : FTSE – Disclaimer On)

Highlight di:

Inclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya) – Large Cap Addition

-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid

-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid
-MSIN (MNC Studios International) – Mid Cap Addition

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)

Harusnya efek rebalancing akan bikin naik saham-saham ini karena akan diborong para Manager Investasi.

Cuma Property yang firm, tanda tanda perlawanan ada di basic materials, transportation, sama consumer cyclicals. Infra ada dikit tapi ok lah kita liat detailnya

 

Property – stoch up rev, 833 sell, macd up, bandar akum foreign last day buang sebelumnya seminggu lebih akum, MFI masih up, alias turun kemaren vol kecil, retracement pattern pas di fibo 23, wajar rada ngeden, semoga lanjut breakout, IHNS firm breakout, kalo bakal retrace re-buy di neckline ilmunya…

BSDE CTRA SMRA big akum dan semua vol breakout

BSDE – Stoch Up overbought, 833 sell, macd up, MFI up, bandar akum terus, foreign last day buang, retracement pattern breakout fibo 38, mungkin aja drop dulu ke fibo 23 tapi kayanya kalopun dibawa turun hanya akan sampe level neckline Inverted Head and Shoulders di sekitar 970. Kalo sampe situ berani re-buy

SMRA – mirip BSDE, stoch up macd up mfi up bandar lokal akum foreign buang, deket fibo38, bdanya keliatann CNH dan udah lebih tinggi naiknya dari bottom price, sekitar 33%. BSDE baru 17%, relatively lebih ok buy BSDE

CTRA – stoch baru buy, macd up 833 sw,mfi up, bandar akum foreign buang, retracement udah di atas fibo 78, udah lebih dulu jalan, IHNS firm, dari bottom udah naik 37%, udah naik paling tinggi dibanding BSDE sama SMRA

Financials perlu di check, karena penggerak bursa terbanyak disini… Kalo Finance lanjut, IHSG juga lanjut

Financials – keliatan false break, IHNS diharapkan breakout tapi candle nya ga closing diatas neckline, cuma tail aja. Masih ada 2 gap menganga yang kemungkinan besar akan ditutup, tapi mungkin akan konsolidasi dulu. Selama ga break low wave 2 sih harusnya ga lama mantul lagi. Stoch sell, 833 sell, macd abis buy keliatan mau rev down, bandar buang, foreign last day buang, MFI sideways

Banyak sell signal, dan dengan vol tinggi di candle terakhir. Stay away dulu dari financials

Basic Materials – stoch sell, macd sell, 833 down, bandar last day akum, foreign relatif netral, MFI sw, gagal breakout neckline IHNS tapi harusnya masih hanya konsolidasi sebelum naik wave 3 dan breakout IHNS. candle terakhir hammer, semoga reversal.

Bandar akum di semen semen an, sama INKP. SMGA buy signal EMA cross big akum vol breakout

SMGR – Stoch Up, MACD up, EMA GC, bandar foreign akum, MFI up, belum retrace, belum tembus fibo 23, harusnya ngetes lagi, vol breakout sambil tembus resistance, BOW di tengah candle kemaren, tapi pantau ketat, TP pendek aja kecuali sektornya confirmed jalan lagi

MDKA – retracement pattern harusnya masih jalan, kehambat index doang, ada gap di 4960. stoch up, 833 sell, macd up, 2 hari terakhir bandar dan foreign exit, MFI down, candle di dalem closud ichimoku, semoga breakout ke atas. Kalo dibawa ke fibo 23 berani buy, yang udah puya masih hold…

ANTM – mirip MDKA, stoch up macd buy, bandar sama foreign masih netral, MFI sw, retracement pattern otw fibo 61, psar up, semoga ga dibawa tutup gap bawah dulu, langsung tutup gap atas di 2740

Consumer Cyclicals – menarik, tapi belum saatnya entry… Tunggu MACD deh. Bandar distribusi, foreign 2 hari akum, MFI masih down, retracement pattern mau jalan harusnya, tapi breakdown fibo 23 masih bahaya, tunggu closing diatas fibo 23 aja dulu. LRmasih bisa kemana aja, PSAR buy

MNCN GJTL

MNCN – MACD buy, stoch up, tapi bandar dan foreign masih belum gerak, masih dibawah fibo 23, belum ada vol breakout, nanti dulu deh. Kecuali sektornya leading sih berani entry setengah di MACD

GJTL – technically ok semua, tinggal tunggu bandar sama foreign gerak, cari vol breakout, pantau ketat… BOB