Daily Analysis 20221219

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

December 19th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 200 points lower, falls for a second straight week as recession fears grow

Stocks dropped Friday, building on their year-end sell-off, as fears grow over a recession taking place as the Federal Reserve continues raising rates.

Dow…….32920 -281.8    -0.85%
Nasdaq.10705 -105.1    -0.97%
S&P 500..3852  -43.4     -1.11%

FTSE…….7332   -94.1     -1.27%
Dax……..13893  -93.2     -0.67%
CAC……..6453   -70.1.    -1.08%

Nikkei….27527  -524.6    -1.87%
HSI……..19451  +82.1     +0.42%
Shanghai..3168  -0.8       -0.02%
ST Times..3241  -32.9     -1.01%

IDX…….6812.19  +60.33  +0.89%
LQ45……951.18  +8.82    +0.94%

IDX Energy..2159.47  +18.93  +0.88%
IDX BscMat 1267.52 +19.13  +1.53%
IDX Indstrl…1177.78  -0.18     -0.02%
IDXNONCYC..727.71 +2.10    +0.29%
IDX Hlthcare.1557.43+10.71  +0.69%
IDXCYCLIC…..841.61  -8.18     -0.96%
IDX Techno..5222.58  -2.91     -0.06%
IDX Transp…1702.99  -8.51     -0.50%
IDX Infrast……845.42 +0.44    +0.05%
IDX Finance 1451.34 +13.21  +0.92%
IDX Banking 1180.04 +19.09  +1.64%
IDX Property….705       -5.60    -0.79%

Indo10Yr.6.9946  -0.0231  -0.33%👍
ICBI….343.8874 +0.2873  +0.08%👍
US10Yr..3.4820  +0.0320  +0.93%
VIX……22.62       -0.21       -0.92%👍

USDIndx.104.7010 +0.0930 +0.09%
Como Indx.271.38   -3.34    -1.22%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..162.48   -1.61    -0.98%
.
IndoCDS..105.25         –              -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR……15598.00 -21.00  -0.13%
Jisdor..15617.00 -13.00  -0.08%

Euro……1.0586  -0.0039 -0.37%

TLKM…….23.17     -0.02    -0.09%
(3618)
EIDO……….22.77   +0.36   +1.61%
EEM……….37.83    +0.11   +0.29%

Oil………….74.29    -1.82    -2.39%
Gold …..1800.20   +12.40  +0.69%
Timah…..23535      -65          -0.28%
(Closed 16/12)
Nickel…28466.50  +170.00  +0.60%
(Closed 16/12)
Silver………23.33   +0.02   +0.10%
Copper…376.15    -0.15     -0.04%

Nturl Gas..6.611   -0.265  -3.85%‼️

Ammonia..4756.67  -33.33    -0.70%
China
(Domestic Price)(15/12)

Coal price….403.00   +1.10   +0.27%
(Dec/Newcastle)
Coal price….372.00   -4.55    -1.21%
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price….355.00   -4.80    -1.33%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price…234.20   -5.80     -2.42%
(Dec/Rotterdam)
Coal price…205.65  -12.95  -5.92%‼️
(Jan/ Rotterdam)
Coal price…205.70  -13.60  -6.20%‼️
(Feb/Rotterdam)

Coal(ICI 4)…..89.80         –              -%
Indonesial Coal Index (17/11)

CPO(Mar)…..3917   +23   +0.59%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………….653.00  -0.50    -0.08%
SoybeanOil.62.46     -0.52    -0.83%
Wheat………753.50    -3.75   -0.50%

Wood pulp…6510.00  unch  +0%
(Closed 18/12)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Jum’at US closing lanjut merah, Europe juga, Asia pada merah kecuali HSI sama IHSG. Malah IHSG naik tinggi. Semoga bisa lanjut hari ini ijonya

Metal2 pada naik kecuali timah sama copper, Oil Gas turun, Coal spot naik, future turun, CPO naik. Saham coal masih bisa diharapkan lanjut naik, paling ketahan kalo index mau merah dulu

IHSG – stoch buy, MACD revup, MFI up, BD akum, masih FNS, reg bull div mulai jalan, udah confirmed buy 2 bull candle, belum tembus MA10 sama belum MACD buy signal tapi. LR mantul, semoga lanjut rally ke atas…

 

Basic Materials, Financials sama Technology… Basic materials layak dicermati, ANTM release lapkeu bagus, harga metal pada naik, kita tunggu buy signal. Financials semoga dorong rally index

Stoch buy signal: AMRT BBNI INCO ITMG UNTR UNVR HEAL

MACD Buy signal: ARTO sama ada sektor energy juga, semoga firm rally lagi

AMRT – stoch buy, macd down, bandar flat, FF exit walau mengecil vol nya, MFI down, Freq spike dibandar vol merah dan FF exit, spike jual kah? hmm… Dari wlliot wave udah kena level wave 5 dan ketemu bearish divergence, dari LR break channel nya jauh, longsor ini mah kayanya… Minimal bikin ABC correction dulu

BBNI – last candle bullish engulfing dengan vol besar, stoch buy, MACD rev up, MFI flat, bandar akum, FF dist, dari EW harusnya masih wave 3, walau mungkin kemaren udah kena reg bear dia wave 4 tapi jalannya dikit, sekarang mau wave 5. Either way, harusnya lanjut ke atas sih, cari pullback kalo mau entry, BOW

INCO – stoch buy, MACD sw, keliatan masih konsol sih, lagi wave 3 tapi belum rally, candle terakhir bullish engulfing juga, ga ada volume, masih WNS

ITMG – stoch buy, macd rev up, BD acc tipis, FF juga, MFI sw, last candle piercing line, ada gap dibawah nyaris tertutup kemaren, bisa jadi dianggap udah beres sih, tapi kalo emang dia mau tutup dulu disitu titik ideal buy. Energy masih ok, coal price masih diatas 400, bisa BOW

 

UNTR – baru sadar UNTR drop harganya.. Sekarang stoch buy, macd masih down, BD FF masih dist, walau FF makin kecil dist nya, Freq Analyzer sempet ada spike, terakhir meningkat di fase sideways, bisa jadi mulai duit masuk mau hajatan, tapi liat dari BD dan FF kaya yang spike buang. Itungan EW reverse udah ok, bisa dianggap done, LR siap mantul, tapi amannya WNS, tunggu MACD terus kita assess lagi

UNVR – valuasi kemahalan… Jangan invest disini, kalo trade ok. Last candle breakout resistance tapi vol nya ga significant. Stoch buy, MACD masih up, MFI down, BD FF akum tipis, yang minat trade bisa BOW di 4800 kalo pas retest… Harusnya sih target sell pas tutup gap 5280 aman

HEAL – harusnya wave 3 jalan ini, udah fibo 61 done dibawa ke fibo 23 lagi tapi ga tembus kebawah, BD FF ga pernah exit, cuma akum dist tipis sambil mainin harga aja keliatannya, ada freq spike 6 desember di fase sideways, harusnya mau hajatan lagi sih. Stoch buy, MACD up, MFI up, healthcare kemaren leading sekarang lagi melemah, OK buat buy tapi pasang strict cutloss kalo ga jadi hajatan. Semoga MIKA masih jalan terus HEAL juga jalan

ARTO – stoch up macd buy, MFI up, BD FF abis buang last day akum tipis, bisa jadi udah mau mulai diangkat. Yang ga masalah beli bank konven bisa buy tapi stoploss ketat, gorengan banget ini… Bagusnya sih ga usah beli yang beginian

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