Daily Analysis 20240704

July 04th, 2024

Good morning,

S&P 500, Nasdaq close at fresh records as investors look past soft economic data

The S&P 500
rose to new highs in Wednesday’s shortened trading session as investors appeared to shrug off sluggish economic data.

Dow……39308 -23.9 -0.06%
Nasdaq18188 +159.5 +0.88%
S&P 500.5537 +28.01 +0.51%

FTSE…..8171 +49.9 +0.61%
Dax……18375 +210.5 +1.16%
CAC……7632 +93.8 +1.24%

Nikkei..40581 +506.1 +1.26%
HSI…..17979 +209.4 +1.18%
Shanghai.2982 -14.6. -0.49%

IDX….7196.75 +71.61+-1.01%
LQ45..897.60 +4.88 +0.55%
IDX30.447.13 +2.67 +0.60%

IDXEnergy..2439.53 +35.58 +1.48%
IDX BscMat1399.48 +16.02 +1.16%
IDX Indstrl. 962.96 +19.55 +2.07%
IDXNONCYC.692.88 +2.91 +0.42%
IDX Hlthcare1414.19 -0.81 -0.06%
IDXCYCLIC…720.40 +2.38 +0.33%
IDXTechno3183.43 -2.21 -0.07%
IDX Transp 1291.61 +20.41 +1.61%
IDX Infrast 1549.94 +10.96 +0.71%
IDX Finance1365.09 +1.61 +0.12%
IDX Banking1192.86 +0.77 +0.06%
IDX Property…..594 +0.50 +0.09%

Indo10Yr.7.0820 +0.0055 +0.08%
ICBI…380.1407 -0.0261 -0.01%
US2Yr.4.708 -0.044 -0.93%
US5Yr 4.322 -0.076 -1.73%
US10Yr4.367 -0.065 -1.47%
US30Yr.4.523-0.084 -1.82%
VIX..12.09 +0.06 +0.50%

USDIndx 105.4030❗️-0.319 -0.30%
Como Indx….294.02 +1.67 +0.57%
BCOMIN……153.80 +2.89 +1.92%

IndoCDS..77.20 -0.97 -1.24%
(5-yr INOCD5) (02/07)

IDR…..16371.00‼️-25.00 -0.15%
Jisdor.16387.00‼️+3.00. +0.02%

Euro….1.0789 +0.0042 +0.39%

TLKM…18.39 -0.02 -0.08%
( 3014)
EIDO….19.64 +0.20 +1.00%
EEM…..43.45 +0.63 +1.47%

Oil…….83.68 +0.64 +0.77%
Gold..2365.40 +25.40 +1.08%
Timah..33363.00 +441.00 +1.34%
(Closed 03/07)
Nickel..17416.50 +359.50 +2.11%
(Closed 03/07)
Silver…30.79 +0.90 +3.01%
Copper.452.90 +9.75 +2.20%

Iron Ore 62% 110.32 +2.32 +2.15%
(02/07)
Nturl Gas. 2.425 -0.027 -1.10%
Ammonia China 2900 -16.67 -0.57%
(Domestic Price)(02/07)

Coal price.135.00 +2.75 +2.08%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.136.40 +1.60 +1.11%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.137.40 +0.90 +0.66%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price 137.55 +0.80 +0.59%
(Oct/Newcastle)

Coal price.103.75 +0.50 +0.48%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price..105.60 unch +0%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price 107.85 -0.40 -0.37%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price 108.90 -0.10 -0.09%
(Oct/Rotterdam)

CPO(Sep)..4082 -8 -0.20%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn…..419.50 -1.75 -0.42%
SoybeanOil 47.91 +1.19 +2.55%
Wheat…574.00 -7.00 -1.20%

Wood pulp..5520 -20 -0.36%
(Closed 03/07)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

DJI merah tipis, nasdaw set new record high, europe ijo, asia ijo, US bond yield merah, IHSG harusnya lanjut

USD index down, metal2 naik semua, oil up gas down coal up, CPO slightly down, ANTM lanjut ini… ADRO ITMG kita liat lagi

IHSG – semua technical indicator bagus, vol transaksi juga mulainaik lagi, BD accum Foreign accum break resistance, tinggal tunggu momentum apa yang bakal bikin koreksi, US udah lama naik duluan so wajar aja kita ngejar, tapi ga akan juga long run without profit taking kan

Industrials, Basic Materials, Transportation

Stochastic Buy Signal: ESSA INTP PTMP ASSA MYOR SSMS. Big accum ESSA SSMS

MACD Buy Signal: ASSA BMTR MYOR PTRO, ASSA MYOR vol breakout

Stochastic Continuation Signal and Big Accum: MTEL TINS

ESSA – PER 20, agak tinggi sih tapi masih ok lah. TEch indicator lumayan ok, stoch buy macd buy, MFI down w% sw, BD accum tapi FF dist. DAri retracement pattern sih harusnya bawa ke fibo 61. Kita check spike

ada spike di fase rada sideways, tapi di atas harganya udahan, jadi khawatir spike jual

Udah jauh diatas avg bandar juga, walau AK masih firm accum terus. Saya pribadi skip, emang ga prefer buy diluar LQ 45 juga sih, subjective banget ini

ASSA – sering agak gorengan tapi nevertheless dia leader di sektor Transportation. Stoch buy MACD buy, MFIup w% up,BD rev acc FF acc udah duluan, reg bull div confirmed, ok semua sih

Spike nya kurang significant

Dari bandarmology nya average aman, dan biggest holder pada akum, aman sih, bisa buy ASSA yang belum punya

MYOR – stoc buy macd buy, MFI up w% sw, BD rev acc ff masih dist, major nya sih mau jalan wave 5 tapi lama banget sideways nya dan consumer non-cyclicals belum giliran jalan dari RSI nya

Nah, spikenya bagus

Per sekarang udah diatas average bandar, dan pada diem ga akum, karena udah pegang INDF saya skip, yang mau masuk setengah botol aja ya

MTEL – udah keburu gerak banyak, tapi kurang pas buat entry cari continuation, udah mau sampe fibo 61 nya, sudah kena reg bear di MFI, stoch juga sell, lebih menarik nunggu TLKM beres pull back

TINS – ini ditungguin banget mantulnya abis drop jauh, tapi pas kejadian lagi full load… retracement pattern harusnya bawa ke fibo 61, tapi ini keliannya ga akan sekali swing, harusnya kalo masuk pas MACD buy kemaren. WNS

BMTR – ditunggu tunggu gorengan tahunannya… macd buy stoch up, MFI up, w% uptrend, BD FF Acc, dibawah modus vol profile, regbull div jalan, harusnya firm ya

Ada spiketapi rada berantakan, tapi firm sih spike beli

lagi pada diem, tapi average aman, since historical data says so, BOW BMTR