Posts Tagged ‘winning’

Daily Analysis 20230626

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

June 26th, 2023

 

Good morning,

 

Stocks tumble on Friday, Nasdaq snaps eight-week winning streak

 

Stocks slid Friday, with Wall Street posting a losing week as a rally that carried the broader market in recent months appeared to run out of steam

 

Dow……33727  -219.3    -0.65%

Nasdaq13493  -138.1    -1.01%

S&P 500.4348  -33.6      -0.77%

 

FTSE…..7462    -40.2      -0.54%

Dax……15830   -158.2    -0.99%

CAC……7163    -39.9       -0.55%

 

Nikkei…..32782  -483.3   -1.45%

HSI………18890  -328.4   -1.71%

Shanghai.3198  closed   +0%

 

IDX…..6639.73  -12.53  -0.19%

LQ45….942.72  -1.64     -0.17%

IDX30…489.85  -1.01     -0.21%

 

IDXEnergy…1791.65  -13.00  -0.72%

IDX BscMat..997.46  +7.14   +0.72%

IDX Indstrl…1166.00  -7.18    -0.61%

IDXNONCYC.740.84  +2.41  +0.33%

IDX Hlthcare1482.21 -0.46    -0.03%

IDXCYCLIC….875.46  -4.31    -0.49%

IDX Techno.4818.59  -54.81  -1.12%

IDX Transp..1914.42  -12.11  -0.63%

IDX Infrast… .847.88  -1.93    -0.23%

IDX Finance.1393.19 -11.25  -0.80%

IDX Banking.1166.96  -7.42   -0.42%

IDX Property..727        -3.10   -0.42%

 

Indo10Yr.6.3651 -0.0055 -0.09%

ICBI..366.4363    -0.0444 -0.01%

US2Yr.4.7500 +0.0209+0.44%

US5Yr 3.9940  -0.0500 -1.05%

US10Yr3.7370 -0.060   -1.58%

US30Yr.3.8140-0.0560 -1.45%

VIX…….13.44   +0.53   +4.11%

 

USDIndx102.9030 +0.5170 +0.50%

Como Indx…263.00  -2.72      -1.03%

(Core Commodity CRB)

BCOMIN……143.27   -2.55      -1.75%

 

IndoCDS.87.65  +1.49  +1.73%

(5-yr INOCD5) (23/06)

 

IDR…..14998.50  +58.00 +0.39%‼️

Jisdor.14998.00  +80.00 +0.54%‼️

 

Euro……1.0901 -0.0053  -0.48%

 

TLKM…26.31   -0.12     -0.45%

(3946)

EIDO….22.92    -0.17    -0.74%

EEM…..39.17   -0.58    -1.46%

 

Oil…….69.16     -0.32   -0.46%

Gold…1929.60 +6.30 +0.33%

Timah..26476.00 -603.00 -2.23%

(Closed 23/06)

Nickel..21400.50 -224.00 -1.06%

(Closed 23/06)

Silver….. 22.55   +0.08    +0.36%

Copper..381.55  -8.35   -2.14%

 

Iron Ore 62%  112.65  -0.20  -0.18%

(24/06)

Nturl Gas.2.843  +0.228  +8.72%‼️

 

Coal price.125.50  -0.25   -0.20%

(Jun/Newcastle)

Coal price.139.15  -1.85   -1.31%

(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.140.85  -0.65   -0.46%

(Agt/Newcastle)

Coal price.143.00  -0.75   -0.52%

(Sept/Newcastle)

 

Coal price114.60   -0.55   -0.48%

(Jun/Rotterdam)

Coal price.115.00  -1.50   -1.29%

(Jul/ Rotterdam)

Coal price.112.35  -1.50   -1.32%

(Agt/Rotterdam)

Coal price.111.55  -1.60   -1.41%

(Sept/Rotterdam)

 

CPO(Sept)..3624   +55  +1.54%

(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

 

Corn…..588.75     -32.75 -5.28%‼️

SoybeanOil 54.96+1.20   +2.23%

Wheat…746.50     -6.25   -0.83%

 

Wood pulp..4280.00 unch  +0%

(Closed 25/06)

 

©️Phintraco Sekuritas

Broker Code: AT

Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia

Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Semua Index Regional closing merah hari jum’at, masih belum mulai masuk lagi foreign, masih berat ini IHSG

USD index naik lagi, kebanyakan commodity merah, yang ijo cuma Gold, Silver, CPO dan Natural Gas yang loncat 8%

IHSG – stoch down, MACD almost sell, MFI down, w% down BD ga kuat acc terus, masih FNS, beneran mending pegang cash dulu

Basic Materials lanjut, Energy rada lemes, yang lain belum pada ok

Stochastic Buy Signal: INKP ADMR

MACD Buy Signal: AGII GGRM

Alligator Buy Signal: SRTG AALI PNLF

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Debunking 8 Myths About Technical Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Some traders and investors denounce technical analysis (TA) as a superficial study of charts and patterns without any concrete, conclusive or profitable results. Others believe it is a sort of Holy Grail that once mastered will unleash sizable profits. These opposing viewpoints have led to misconceptions about technical analysis and how it is used.  

Technical analysis tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities. Contrary to fundamental analysis, technical analysts do not necessarily care much about the companies behind the stocks they trade or their profitability.

Some misconceptions about technical analysis are based on education and training. For example, a trader trained in using only fundamentals may not trust technical analysis at all. But that doesn’t mean someone who is trained in technical analysis can’t use it profitably.

Other TA assumptions are based on bad experiences. For example, the incorrect use of technical indicators often leads to losses. That doesn’t mean the method is necessarily wrong; possibly the person just needs more practice and training. The negative sentiment can be perpetuated by unscrupulous marketing, promising overnight riches if a simple TA indicator is bought and used. It rarely is that easy.

Here are eight common technical analysis myths—and why they simply aren’t true. 

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analysis (TA) tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities.
  • Many opponents of TA subscribe to myths about the strategy.
  • Common myths about TA include it being only for day trading and only used by individual traders.
  • Other myths include the idea that TA is quick and easy, with all decisions made by software.
  • Some erroneously expect TA to make precise price predictions and be equally appropriate across all financial markets.

1. Technical Analysis Is Only for Short-Term Trading or Day Trading

It is a common myth that technical analysis is only appropriate for short-term and computer-driven trading like day trading and high-frequency trades. Technical analysis existed and was practiced before computers were common, and some of the pioneers in technical analysis were long-term investors and traders, not day traders. Technical analysis is used by traders on all time frames, from one-minute charts to weekly and monthly charts.

2. Only Individual Traders Use Technical Analysis 

While individuals do use technical analysis, hedge funds and investment banks make ample use of technical analysis as well. Investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis. High-frequency trading, which encompasses a significant amount of the trading volume on the stock exchanges, is heavily dependent on technical concepts. 

3. Technical Analysis Has a Low Success Rate

A look at the list of successful market traders, who have decades of trading experience, debunks this myth. Successful trader interviews have cited significant numbers of traders who owe their success to technical analysis and patterns. For example, Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders (Wiley, 2012) by Jack D. Schwager features interviews with many professionals who’ve profited solely by using technical analysis.

4. Technical Analysis Is Quick and Easy 

The internet is full of technical analysis courses that promise trading success. Though many individuals enter the trading world by placing their first trade based on simple technical indicators, continued success in trading requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline. It requires dedicated time, knowledge, and attention. Technical analysis is only a tool, only one piece of the puzzle.

5. Ready-Made Technical Analysis Software Can Help Traders Make Easy Money 

Unfortunately, this is not true. There are many online ads for cheap and costly software that claims to do all your analysis for you. In addition, less-experienced traders sometimes confuse technical analysis tools in broker-provided trading software for trading models that will guarantee profit. Though technical analysis software provides insights about trends and patterns, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee profits. It’s up to the trader to correctly interpret trends and data.

6. Technical Indicators Can Be Applied Across All Markets

While technical analysis can be applied to many markets, specific asset classes have specific requirements. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and bonds all have differences. There may be time-dependent patterns like high volatility in futures and options nearing expiry, or seasonal patterns in commodities. Don’t make the mistake of applying technical indicators intended for one asset class to another.

7. Technical Analysis Can Provide Precise Price Predictions 

Many novices expect recommendations from technical analysts or software patterns to be 100% precise. For example, inexperienced traders may expect a prediction as specific as, “stock ABC will reach $62 in two months.” However, experienced technical analysts usually avoid quoting prices so specifically. Rather they tend to quote a range such as, “stock A could move in the range of $59 to $64 in the next two to three months.”

Traders betting their money on technical recommendations should be aware that technical analysis provides a predictive range, not an exact number. Technical analysis is also about probability and likelihoods, not guarantees. If something works more often than not, even though it doesn’t work all the time, it can still be very effective at generating profits.

8. The Winning Rate in Technical Analysis Should Be Higher

It’s a common myth that a high percentage of winning trades is needed for profitability. However, that is not always the case. Assume Peter makes four winning trades out of five, while Molly makes one winning trade out of five. Who is more successful? Most people would say Peter, but we don’t actually know until we get more information. Profitability is a combination of win rate and risk/reward. If Peter makes $20 on his winners but is down $80 from his one loss, he ends up with $0. If Molly makes $50 on her win and losses $10 on her losses, she walks away with $10. She is better off, even with fewer wins. Proper trade structuring allows for profitability even with few winners

The Bottom Line

Technical analysis provides a large basket of tools and concepts for trading. There are successful traders who don’t use it, and there are successful traders who do. Some believe technical analysis is the best way to trade, while others claim it is misguided and lacks a theoretical basis.

Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn’t guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.

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Daily Analysis 20230413

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 13th, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks ended Wednesday’s regular trading session on a down note. The S&P 500
closed 0.41% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite
dropped 0.85%. The Dow snapped a four-day winning streak, ending the day down 38.29 points, or 0.11%.

At the first, the major averages were earlier in the session following the release of March’s consumer price index report, which showed headline pressures slowed last month. The CPI advanced 0.1% month over month in March, and 5% from the prior year.

Traders’ sentiment turned in the afternoon after the release of minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In particular, the Fed expects the recent banking crisis to cause a recession later this year.

Dow……33647 -38.3 -0.11%
Nasdaq11929 -102.5 -0.85%
S&P 500.4092 -16.99 -0.41%

FTSE…..7825 +39.1 +0.50%
Dax……15704 +48.4 +0.31%
CAC……7397 +6.7 +0.09%

Nikkei…..28083 +159.3 +0.57%
HSI………20310 -175.4 -0.86%
Shanghai.3327 +13.6 +0.41%

IDX…..6798.96 -12.35 -0.18%
LQ45….943.18 +1.40 +0.15%
IDX30…491.46 +0.62 +0.13%

IDXEnergy…2052.28 -33.74 -1.62%
IDX BscMat 1158.66 -3.28 -0.28%
IDX Indstrl…1204.13 +11.57 +0.97%
IDXNONCYC.712.94 -3.69 -0.51%
IDX Hlthcare1505.43 -8.02 -0.53%
IDXCYCLIC…..810.57 -1.42 -0.18%
IDX Techno..4817.76 -71.02 -1.45%
IDX Transp..1779.01 +6.01 +0.34%
IDX Infrast…..803.45 +0.94 +0.12%
IDX Finance.1391.44 +2.65 +0.19%
IDX Banking.1145.74 +4.32 +0.38%
IDX Property…694 -2.0 -0.28%

Indo10Yr.6.7472+0.0047+0.07%
ICBI….354.8340+0.0088+0.00%
US2Yr.3.9682 -0.0647 -1.60%
US5Yr 3.4659 -0.0690 -1.95%
US10Yr3.4000 -0.0320 -0.93%
US30Yr.3.6350+0.010 +0.28%
VIX…… 19.09 -0.01 -0.05%

USDIndx101.5000 -0.6530 -0.64%👍
Como Indx.275.73 +1.00 +0.37%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…156.52 +1.82 +1.17%

IndoCDS..92.110 +0.4900 +0.53%
(5-yr INOCD5) (11/04)

IDR…..14880.00👍 -5.50 -0.04%
Jisdor.14866.00👍 -22.00 -0.15%

Euro……1.0994 +0.0080 +0.73%

TLKM….28.90 +0.05 +0.17%
(4297)
EIDO……23.90 +0.05 +0.17%
EEM……39.39 -0.28 -0.71%

Oil……83.26 +1.73 +2.12%
Gold.2024.90 +5.70 +0.28%
Timah..24308.00 – -%
(Closed 06/04)
Nickel..23565.00 +491.00 +2.13%
(Closed 11/04)
Silver……25.46 +0.27 +1.08%
Copper…408.10 +6.15 +1.53%

Nturl Gas.2.084 -0.1760 -7.91%‼️

Ammonia 3633.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(10/04)

Coal price.194.60 -0.55 -0.28%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.202.40 -2.60 -1.26%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.205.90 +1.40 +0.68%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.206.05 -2.10 -1.00%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.133.80 +4.35 +3.36%‼️
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.126.95 +0.95 +0.75%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 125.35 +0.35 +0.28%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 125.75 -0.10 -0.08%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3775 -120 -3.08%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..627.75 +0.00 +0.00%
SoybeanOil54.16 -0.85 -1.55%
Wheat…..679.60 +5.50 +0.82%

Wood pulp..4740.00 -50.00 -1.05%
(Closed 11/04)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah, europe ijo, asia varied, US dollar index turun, yang consequently means semua commodity yang diikat nilai nya ke dollar cenderung naik. Index mungkin akan sideways tapi saham terkait komoditi harusnya tetep jalan

Oil up, gas drop, coal newcastle down, coal rotterdam jump, cpo drop. Ini sih keliatannya giliran ANTM MDKA INCO TINS untuk jalan lagi

IHSG – stoch masih down, macdp, 833 almostbuy, MFI up, BD flat, FNB,w% flat, retracement pattern keliatan mau bawa naik after mantul di fibo 23, masih optimis double bottom jalan

Kemarin BUMN konstruksi semua digoreng, Infrastructure jadi keliatan jalan, selain JSMR yang sudah run duluan. Industrials ASII kemarin naik tinggi, BMTR semoga nyusul, Financials BBCA BBRI BMRI kemaren jalan,semoga lanjut biar bisa ngangkat index, repot gendong GOTO yang bikin rusak aja

Stochastic Buy Signal: ASII PGAS MTEL MTMH MIKA LMSH WINS

MACD Buy Signal: INTP ADHI MTMH PTPP TKIM ANJT

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Daily Analysis 20230403

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 03rd, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Dow……33274 +415.1 +1.25%
Nasdaq12222 +208.4 +1.74%
S&P 500.4109 +58.5. +1.44%

FTSE…..7632 +11.3 +0.16%
Dax…..15629. +106.4 +0.69%
CAC……7322 +59.02 +0.81%

Nikkei…..28042 +258.6 +0.93%
HSI………20400 +90.98 +0.49%
Shanghai.3273 +11.6 +0.36%

IDX…..6805.28 -3.67 -0.06%
LQ45….937.68 -1.93 -0.20%
IDX30…488.29 -1.07 -0.22%

IDXEnergy…2103.64 +17.36 +0.83%
IDX BscMat 1183.75 +1.40 +0.12%
IDX Indstrl…1185.57 +8.39 +0.71%
IDXNONCYC.731.64 -3.08 -0.42%
IDX Hlthcare1540.65 +4.38 +0.29%
IDXCYCLIC…..822.32 -3.30 -0.40%
IDX Techno..5100.73 -37.97 -0.74%
IDX Transp..1789.36 -10.46 -0.58%
IDX Infrast…..808.84 -1.70 -0.21%
IDX Finance.1385.82 +1.72 +0.12%
IDX Banking.1136.13 -1.14 -0.10%
IDX Property…686 +4.2 +0.62%

Indo10Yr.6.7956 -0.0126 -0.19%👍
ICBI…..353.1919 +0.3423 +0.10%👍
US2Yr.4.0376 -0.0839 -2.03%
US5Yr 3.5836 -0.0966 -2.62%
US10Yr3.4730 -0.0740 -2.08%
US30Yr.3.4730-0.0790 -2.11%
VIX…… 19.02 -0.10 -0.52%

USDIndx102.1660 -0.4899 -0.47%
Como Indx.267.73 +3.35 +1.27%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…159.99 +0.95 +0.59%

IndoCDS..95.060 -3.950 -3.99%👍
(5-yr INOCD5) (03/31)

IDR…..14995.50 -51.50 -0.34%👍
Jisdor.14977.00 -85.00 -0.56%👍

Euro……1.0839 -0.0068 -0.62%

TLKM….27.27 -0.16 -0.58%
(4084)
EIDO……23.53 +0.02 +0.09%
EEM……39.46 -0.05 -0.13%

Oil……75.67 +1.30 +1.75%
Gold.1986.20 -11.50 -0.58%
Timah 25835.00 -81.00 -0.31%
(Closed 03/31)
Nickel..23744.50 +652.00 +2.82%
(Closed 03/31)
Silver…..24.16 +0.17 +0.70%
Copper..409.45 +0.30 +0.07%

Nturl Gas.2.166 +0.062 +2.94%

Ammonia 3966.67 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(03/29)

Coal price.193.00 +5.50 +2.93%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.199.50 +4.00 +2.25%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.205.70 +5.70 +2.85%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price..208.15 +6.90 +3.43%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.137.90 +0.15 +0.11%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.137.00 -1.55 -1.12%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 133.25 -2.25 -1.66%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 132.70 -1.60 -1.19%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3758 -33 -0.87%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..660.50 +11.00 +1.69%
SoybeanOil.55.49 +1.12 +2.06%
Wheat…..692.25 unch +0%

Wood pulp…5080.00 unch +0%
(Closed 04/01)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Semua closing hijau jum’at, IHSG harusnya ijo lagi hari ini

Oil Gas Coal lanjut ijo, Metal2 tipis2 merah dan ijo kecuali nikel yang rebound, ANTM MDKA minor pullback dulu, INCO kita liat, CPO merah lagi

Coal Price belum terlihat firm reversal, walau dari supertrend dan macd sudah bilang up

IHSG – stoch mulai oversold, 833 sell, macd masih up, mungkin minor pullback or sideways dulu sebelum ngejar test resistance neckline double bottom, tapi yang bikin tenang MFI masih up, BD FF acc, w% masih uptrend

Energy leading, Basic Materials, Transportation, Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, sama yang keliatan mau jalan Technology. Consumer Non-Cyclicals anehnya di minggu kedua ramadhan malah melemah, mungkin mau lari lagi di deket lebaran

Stochastic Buy Signal: LMSH

MACD buy signal: ASII INTP PTBA SCMA LPPF

Alligator Buy SIgnal: AMRT BBCA CTRA ERAA

Supertrend Buy Signal: INCO ADMR PWON

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