November 11th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow pops 1,200 points, S&P 500 jumps 5% in biggest rally in two years after light inflation report

Stocks mounted their biggest rally since 2020 after October’s reading of consumer prices raised investor hopes that inflation has peaked.

October’s consumer price index rose just 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago, its lowest annual increase since January and a slowdown from the 8.2% annual pace in the prior month. Economists were expecting increases of 0.6% and 7.9%, according to Dow Jones. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, also less than expected.

*Dow…….33715 +1201.4 +3.70%‼️*
*Nasdaq.11114 +760.97 +7.36%‼️*
*S&P 500..3956 +207.8 +5.54%‼️*

FTSE…….7375 +79.1 +1.08%
*Dax……..14146 +479.8 +3.51%*
CAC……..6557 +126.3 +1.96%

Nikkei….27446 -270.7 -0.98%
HSI……..16081 -277.5 -1.70%
Shanghai..3036 -12.03 -0.39%
ST Times..3173 +7.7 +0.24%

IDX…….6966.84 -103.25 -1.46%
LQ45…..991.65 -17.55 -1.74%

IDX Energy..1975.43 -36.92 -1.97%
IDX Bsc Mat.1285.93 -13.20 -1.02%
IDX Industrl..1234.76 -24.46 -1.94%
IDXNONCYC..724.48 -9.40 -1.19%
IDX Hlthcare.1494.43 -2.36 -0.16%
IDXCYCLIC…..880.85 -6.72 -0.76%
IDX Techno..6651.73 -115.19 -1.70%
IDX Transp…1810.62 -42.59 -2.30%
IDX Infrast……917.05 -6.87 -0.74%
IDX Finance 1467.50 -15.71 -1.06%
IDX Banking.1172.75 -15.78 -1.33%
IDX Property….692 -4.00 -0.58%

*Indo10Yr….7.4940 -0.0226 -0.30%‼️*
*ICBI……..333.8463 +0.4951 +0.15%‼️*
*US10Yr..3.8290 -0.3220 -7.76%‼️👍*
*VIX……23.53 -2.56 -9.81%👍*

*USDIndx107.8990 -2.5390 -2.30%‼️👍*
Como Indx..282.12 +2.34 +0.84%
(Core Commodity CRB)
*BCOMIN……157.16 +3.10 +2.01%*
.
*IndoCDS..124.70👍 – -%*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(07/11)*

*IDR……15693.50 +36.50 +0.23%‼️*
*Jisdor..15701.00 +47 +0.30%‼️*

*Euro……..1.0202 +0.0191 +1.91%👍*

TLKM……..26.82 +0.48 +1.82%
*(4123)*
EIDO………23.77 +0.46 +1.97%
*EEM……….37.15 +1.30 +3.63%*

Oil…………86.47 +0.64 +0.75%
*Gold ……1753.70 +40.00 +2.37%‼️*
Timah…..19817 +158.00 +0.80%
*(Closed 09/11)*
*Nickel…26157.00 +1427.00 +5.77%‼️*
*(Closed 10/11)*
Silver………21.70 +0.38 +1.76%
Copper…..375.80 +5.80 +1.57%

*Nturl Gas…..6.151 +0.198 +3.33%*

Ammonia..4363.33 +16.66 +0.37
*China*
(Domestic Price)(11/11)

Coal price….324.25 +1.50 +0.46%
(Nov/Newcastle)
*Coal price….289.40 -10.75 -3.58%‼️*
(Des/Newcastle)
*Coal price….287.85 -9.4(0 -3.16%‼️*
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price….190.65 +1.85 +0.98%
(Nov/Rotterdam)
*Coal price….187.40 +8.60 +4.81%‼️*
(Des/ Rotterdam)
*Coal price….188.45 +8.95 +4.99%‼️*
(Jan/Rotterdam)

Coal(ICI 4)…..91.80 unch +0%
Indonesial Coal Index (09/11)

CPO(Jan)……4196 -16 -0.38%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………….653.25 -11.25 -1.69%
SoybeanOil…76.09 +0.55 +0.73%
Wheat………803.50 -3.00 -0.37%

Wood pulp…6700.00 unch +0%
(Closed 10/11)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

Wuih Nasdaq rebound kenceng banget… US europer ijo tebel, asia masih ikut sentimen hari sebelumnya, masih pada merah kemaren, hari ini harusnya ikut menghijau

Oil Coal Gas rebound dikit, semoga DCB nya cukup buat exit dulu sambil nunggu beneran mantul. Metal2an naik lagi semua, good for basic materials, ANTM INCO MDKA dkk. CPO masih lesu

Udah cukup koreksinya, antara fibo 38 sama 50, udah lanjut rally deh ya IHSG…

IHSG – dari stochastic belum firmmantul, masih flat, MFI masih down, FNS, bandar flat, DMI down, LR bisa kemana aja. Itungan fib retracement udah cukup koreksinya tapi untuk ke atas lagi

Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Property, Infrastructure, Technology

Stochastic Buy Signal: TPIA UNVR SCMA

TPIA – stoch buy, macd dikit lagi, LR up, DMI start contraction, hid bull div, 2 hari bandar akum, FF tipis, MFI masih down, udah berani BOW sih, setengah dulu, stoploss jelas di previous low, vol breakout nambah

UNVR – menarik banget, sesuai retracement pattern,dari bawah ke fibo 38,sekarng di fibo 23, siap lanjut jalan. Stoch buy, macd belum, bd ff belum, MFI masih down,kita liat lagi pas MACD nya buy deh

SCMA – udah kejauhan larinya, bukan saatnya entry sekarang…

Global Update:

October 19th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes up more than 300 points as strong earnings boost stocks in choppy market

Stocks rose for a second straight session on Tuesday as strong corporate earnings reports helped extend a rally to start the week.

Dow…….30523 +337.98 +1.12%
Nasdaq.10772 +96.6 +0.90%
S&P 500..3720 +42.03 +1.14%

FTSE…….6937 +16.5 +0.24%
Dax……..12766 +116.6 +0.92%
CAC……..6067 +26.3 +0.44%

Nikkei….27156 +380.4 +1.42%
HSI……..16915 +301.7 +1.82%
Shanghai..3081 -3.98 -0.13%
ST Times..3025 +10.1 +0.34%

IDX…….6834.49 +3.38 +0.05%
LQ45…..971.35 -1.32 -0.14%

IDX Energy…1972.86 -13.75 -0.69%
IDX Bsc Mat.1228.64 +1.59 +0.13%
IDX Industrl..1246.83 -0.69 -0.06%
IDXNONCYC..709.63 +11.18 +1.60%
IDX Hlthcare.1456.13 +4.00 +0.20%
IDXCYCLIC…..835.94 +1.63 +0.85%
IDX Techno..6453.60 -26.80 -0.41%
IDX Transp…1752.25 -0.91 -0.05%
IDX Infrast……919.96 -3.54 -0.38%
IDX Finance 1431.36 -15.22 -1.06%
IDX Banking.1101.70 +15.66 +1.11%
IDX Property…….67/ +4.50 +0.67%

Indo10Yr….7.4396 +0.0032 +0.04%
ICBI……..332.9837 +0.0033 +0.00%
US10Yr……3.9980 -0.0170 -0.42%
VIX……….30.50 -0.87 -2.77%

USDIndx 112.0390 -0.0360 -0.03%👍
Como Indx..271.55 -3.78 -1.37%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..143.24 -0.84 -0.59%
.
IndoCDS 156.09 -8.23 -5.01%👍
(5-yr INOCD5) (12/10)

IDR……15463.50 -24.00 -0.16%‼️
Jisdor..15469.00 -11 -0.07%‼️

Euro……..0.9860 +0.0136 +1.42%‼️

TLKM……..27.20 -0.75 -2.68%
(4208)
EIDO………22.64 -0.19 -0.83%
EEM………35.16 +0.01 +0.03%

Oil…………82.82 -3.18 -3.70%
Gold ……1655.80 -1.30 -0.08%
Timah…19645 -285 -1.43%
(Closed 17/10)
Nickel…21938.00 +324.50 +1.50%
(Closed 18/10)
Silver………18.60 -0.01 -0.53%
Copper….336.20 -4.65 -1.36%

Nturl Gas…..5.691 -0.291 -4.86%‼️

Ammonia..4206.67 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(17/10)

Coal price….387.85 -4.30 -1.10%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….386.80 -5.85 -1.49%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….386.30 -8.85 -2.24%
(Des/Newcastle)
Coal price….267.00 -3.50 -1.29%
(Okt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….255.00 -4.50 -1.73%
(Nov/ Rotterdam)
Coal price…..254.90 -4.50 -1.73%
(Des/Rotterdam)

Coal(ICI 4)…..94.45 -1.25 -1.31%
Indonesial Coal Index (17/10)

CPO(Jan)……4005 +127 +3.27%‼️

(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn………….681.00 -2.50 -0.37%
SoybeanOil….68.74 +1.90 +2.84%
Wheat………849.50 -11.50 -1.34%

Wood pulp…6846.00 unch +0%
(Closed 18/10)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Ijo semua kecuali shanghai, ayo IHSG jalan wave 3. Kalo ijo lagi hari ini jadi 3 white soldiers.

Oil Coal Gas turun, bener ini kayanya wave C dulu energy, bagus deh, siap2 winter rally lagi akhir tahun. Metal turun semua kecuali nikel. CPO naik lumayan. Kita liat technically sektor mana yang mau jalan

IHSG – technically belum firm mantul, baru LR aja yang bilang buy, tapi itungan elliot wave udah sih. Bandar masih flat, foreign masih belum entry lagi, MFI naik tapi, volume cukup untuk dianggap naiknya valid bukan gorengan. Semoga sudah firm lanjut wave 3 sampe awal tahun

Industrials & Basic Materials keliatannya next yang jalan, Consumer Cyclicals dan Consumer Non-Cyclicals ga meyakinkan cacingnya

Global update:

October 04th, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks surge to kick off October and a new quarter as bond yields tumble, Dow closes up 760 points

Stocks rallied Monday to start the new month and quarter, as Treasury yields eased from levels not seen in roughly a decade.

Dow…….29491 +765.4 +2.66%
Nasdaq.10815 +239.8 +2.27%
S&P 500..3678 +92.8 +2.59%

FTSE…….6909 +14.95 +0.22%
Dax……..12209 +95.1 +0.79%
CAC……..5794 +31.8 +0.55%

Nikkei….26216 +278.6 +1.07%
HSI……..17080 -143.3 -0.83%
Shanghai..3024 closed +0%
ST Times..3107 -23.2 -0.74%

IDX…….7009.72 -31.08 -0.44%
LQ45…1006.37 -5.10 -0.50%

IDX Energy…1933.09 +12.79 +0.67%
IDX Bsc Mat.1229.18 -8.79 -0.71%
IDX Industrl..1283.57 +12.85 +1.01%
IDXNONCYC..699.61 +3.15 +0.45%
IDX Hlthcare.1459.23 -38.64 -2.58%
IDXCYCLIC…..848.43 -1.34 -0.16%
IDX Techno..6949.59 -10.25 -0.15%
IDX Transp…1761.72 +2.10 +0.12%
IDX Infrast…….976.83 -4.08 -0.42%
IDX Finance 1475.32 -10.8 -0.73%
٪IDX Banking..1151.50 -7.26 -0.63%
IDX Property….688 +1.60 +0.24%

Indo10Yr….7.4013 -0.0125 -0.17%
ICBI……..333.2363 +0.2645 +0.08%
US10Yr……3.6510 -0.1530 -4.02%
VIX……….30.10 -1.52 -4.81%

USDIndx 111.5430 -0.4640 -0.41%👍
Como Indx..272.82 +4.53 +1.69%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..144.41 +0.97 +0.67%
.
IndoCDS 160.95 +1.42 +0.89%
(5-yr INOCD5) (28/9)

IDR……15302.50 +75.50 +0.50%‼
Jisdor..15293.00 +61.00 +0.40%‼

Euro……..0.9826 +0.0024 +0.24%‼

TLKM……..29.20 +0.35 +1.21%
(4465)
EIDO……..23.56 +0.24 +1.03%
EEM………35.45 +0.57 +1.63%

Oil…………83.32 +3.83 +4.82%‼
Gold ……1707.80 +37.00 +2.21%‼
Timah….20634 – -%
(Closed 30/9)
Nickel…21299.00 -28.00 -0.13%
(Closed 03/10)
Silver…….20.77 +1.73 +9.09%‼
Copper….341.75 +0.50 +0.15%

Nturl Gas…..6.514 -0.312 -4.57%‼

Ammonia..4373.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(29/9)

Coal price….401.50 -6.20 -1.52%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….412.50 -5.20 -1.24%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….409.50 -3.20 -0.78%
(Des/Newcastle)
Coal price….315.85 +0.35 +0.11%
(Okt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….313.85 +0.40 +0.13%
(Nov/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….310.85 +0.40 +0.13%
(Des/Rotterdam)

CPO(Des)……3428 +10 +0.29%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn…………680.75 +3.25 +0.48%
SoybeanOil….63.34 +1.78 +2.89%
Wheat……..912.00 -9.50 -1.03%

Wood pulp…6720.00 unch +0%
(Closed 03/10)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US rebound kenceng, oil gold silver naik tinggi, timah nickel coal minus, copper cpo naik

Kemungkinan opening IHSG ijo dulu, tapi signal masih pada jelek, closing hari kemungkinan hijau dulu, walau wave 2 belum selesai…

IHSG – stoch sw, macd down, MFI down, foreign entry tipis, bandar flat, inside cloud, vol profile ada tebel di 6800 an, gap di 6740, below MA 50, LR PSAR down, masih belum jadwal mantul keliatannya

Consumer Non-Cyclicals, Technology, Healthcare melemah tapi

Global update:

September 14th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow tumbles 1,200 points for worst day since June 2020 after hot inflation report

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a key August inflation report came in hotter than expected, hurting investor optimism for cooling prices and a less aggressive Federal Reserve.

Dow…….31105 -1276.4 -3.94%‼️
Nasdaq.11634 -632.8 -5.16%‼️
S&P 500..3932 -177.7 -4.32%‼️

FTSE…….7386 -87.2 -1.17%
Dax……..13189 -213.2 -1.59%
CAC……..6246 -87.9 -1.39%

Nikkei….28615 +72.5 +0.25%
HSI……..19327 -35.4 -0.18%
Shanghai..3264 +1.7 +0.05%
ST Times..3290 +15.4 +0.47%

IDX…….7318.02 +63.56 +0.88%
LQ45…1042.64 +9.85 +0.95%

IDX Energy..2063.78 +16.76 +0.82%
IDX Bsc Mat.1334.42 -5.20 -0.39%
IDX Industrl..1390.40 +18.58 +1.35%
IDXNONCYC..703.79 +4.24 +0.61%
IDX Hlthcare.1464.26 +9.86: +0.68%
IDXCYCLIC…..880.78 -1.86 -0.21%
IDX Techno..7647.98 -45.90 -0.60%
IDX Transp…1927.02 +42.22 +2.24%
IDX Infrast…..1034.62 +6.15 +0.60%
IDX Finance 1536.62 +28.20 +1.87%
IDX Banking..1193.06 +23.02 +1.97%
IDX Property…734 +7.80 +1.08%

Indo10Yr….7.1745 -0.0089 -0.12%
ICBI……..336.7872 +0.2684 +0.08%
US10Yr……3.4220 +0.0600 +1.78%
VIX……….27.27 +3.40 +14.24%‼️

USDIndx 109.8150 +1.4850 +1.37%
Como Indx..285.77 -1.85 -0.64%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..155.12 -0.37 -0.24%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14851.50 +9.50 +0.06%
Jisdor..14861.00 +22.00 +0.15%

Euro……..0.9970 -0.0152 -1.50%

TLKM……..29.58 -0.88 -2.89%‼️
(4396)
EIDO………24.33 -0.26 -1.06%
EEM………38.36 -1.22 -3.08%‼️

Oil…………..87.71 -0.28 -0.32%
Gold ……..1712.70 -23.50 -1.35%
Timah. .21461.00 +296.00 +1.40%
( Closed 12/9)
Nickel…24142.50 -307.50 -1.26%
(Closed 13/9)
Silver…….19.29 -0.52 -2.62%
Copper….353.10 -8.45 -2.34%

Nturl Gas…..8.398 -0.011 -0.13%

Ammonia..4133.33 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(12/9)

Coal price….439.35 +1.85 +0.42%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….428.65 +1.15 +0.27%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….422.00 +4.00 +0.96%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….336.00 +7.00 +2.13%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….314.50 +10.00 +3.28%‼️
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….314.75 +9.50 +3.11%‼️
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3900 +218 +5.92%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..692.75 -3.25 -0.47%
SoybeanOil…66.73 +0.24 +0.36%
Wheat……..860.50 +1.75 +0.20%

Wood pulp…6750.00 unch +0%
(Closed 13/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US drop dalem banget, Eropa ikut merah tapi ga terlalu dalem, mungkin sentimen negatif keluar ga lama marketnya tutup. Asia masih pada ijo sisa sentimen hari sebelumnya, cuma hangseng yang merah

Ini worst fear saya, diangkat sampe seolah-olah mau bikin record high, terus dibanting dalem pas saat semua orang lagi greed. Secara technical, jebakan technical persis kaya gini ada di tahun kemaren, pas keluar MACD buy signal pas index dibawa turun lagi

Kemungkinan besar akan dibanting dulu, semoga ga semua sektor dibawa kebawah

IHSG – technically relatif bagus. Memang dari kemarin kemarin sudah dikhawatirkan akan drop bikin Wave 2, cuma belum start aja, karena finance LK pada bagus dan bikin new record high BBCA BMRI, otomatis index keangkat. Ada regular Bearsih Divergence MACD dan ada 3 gap di bawah dan stochastic siap sell yang mendukung koreksi. kalo masih ada profit dan sempet exit bagusnya exit dulu

Yang mungkin contrarian sama index di Basic Materials sama Property, tapi tetep kalo sentimen awal pasti ikut keseret kebawah. Industrials cacingnya masih up aja, tapi udah wave 5 dan ada sentimen negatif kayanya udahan dulu. Financials ga usah dibahas, pasti ngikut index