What Is Anchoring?

Anchoring is a heuristic in behavioral finance that describes the subconscious use of irrelevant information, such as the purchase price of a security, as a fixed reference point (or anchor) for making subsequent decisions about that security. Thus, people are more likely to estimate the value of the same item higher if the suggested sticker price is $100 than if it is $50.

In sales, price, and wage negotiations, anchoring can be a powerful tool. Studies have shown that setting an anchor at the outset of a negotiation can have more effect on the final outcome than the intervening negotiation process. Setting a starting point that is deliberately too high can affect the range of all subsequent counteroffers.

Understanding Anchoring

Anchoring is a cognitive bias in which the use of an arbitrary benchmark such as a purchase price or sticker price carries a disproportionately high weight in one’s decision-making process. The concept is part of the field of behavioral finance, which studies how emotions and other extraneous factors influence economic choices.

In the context of investing, one consequence of anchoring is that market participants with an anchoring bias tend to hold investments that have lost value because they have anchored their fair value estimate to the original price rather than to fundamentals. As a result, market participants assume greater risk by holding the investment in the hope the security will return to its purchase price.

Market participants are often aware that their anchor is imperfect and attempt to make adjustments to reflect subsequent information and analysis. However, these adjustments often produce outcomes that reflect the bias of the original anchors.

Anchoring Bias

An anchoring bias can cause a financial market participant, such as a financial analyst or investor, to make an incorrect financial decision, such as buying an overvalued investment or selling an undervalued investment. Anchoring bias can be present anywhere in the financial decision-making process, from key forecast inputs, such as sales volumes and commodity prices, to final output like cash flow and security prices.

Historical values, such as acquisition prices or high-water marks, are common anchors. This holds for values necessary to accomplish a certain objective, such as achieving a target return or generating a particular amount of net proceeds. These values are unrelated to market pricing and cause market participants to reject rational decisions.

Anchoring can be present with relative metrics, such as valuation multiples. Market participants using a rule-of-thumb valuation multiple to evaluate securities prices demonstrate anchoring when they ignore evidence that one security has a greater potential for earnings growth.

Some anchors, such as absolute historical values and values necessary to accomplish an objective, can be harmful to investment objectives, and many analysts encourage investors to reject these types of anchors. Other anchors can be helpful as market participants deal with the complexity and uncertainty inherent in an environment of information overload. Market participants can counter anchoring bias by identifying the factors behind the anchor and replacing suppositions with quantifiable data.

Comprehensive research and assessment of factors affecting markets or a security’s price are necessary to eliminate anchoring bias from decision-making in the investment process.

Examples of Anchoring Bias

It is easy to find examples of anchoring bias in everyday life. Customers for a product or service are typically anchored to a sales price based on the price marked by a shop or suggested by a salesperson. Any further negotiation for the product is in relation to that figure, regardless of its actual cost.

Within the investing world, anchoring bias can take on several forms. For instance, traders are typically anchored to the price at which they bought a security. If a trader bought stock ABC for $100, then they will be psychologically fixated on that price for judging when to sell or make additional purchases of the same stock — regardless of ABC’s actual value based on an assessment of relevant factors or fundamentals affecting it.

In another case, analysts may become anchored to the value of a given index at a certain level instead of considering historical figures. For example, if the S&P 500 is on a bull run and has a value of 3,000, then analysts’ propensity will be to predict values closer to that figure rather than considering the standard deviation of values, which have a fairly wide range for that index.

Anchoring also appears frequently in sales negotiations.  A salesman can offer a very high price to start negotiations that is objectively well above fair value. Yet, because the high price is an anchor, the final selling price will also tend to be higher than if the salesman had offered a fair or low price to start. A similar technique may be applied in hiring negotiations when a hiring manager or prospective hire proposes an initial salary. Either party may then push the discussion to that starting point, hoping to reach an agreeable amount that was derived from the anchor.

Correction—July 21, 2022: This article was updated to make clear a risk of anchoring resulting in buying overvalued assets or selling undervalued ones, not buying undervalued assets and selling overvalued ones.

What Is Aggregate Demand?

Aggregate demand is a measurement of the total amount of demand for all finished goods and services produced in an economy. Aggregate demand is commonly expressed as the total amount of money exchanged for those goods and services at a specific price level and point in time.

Understanding Aggregate Demand

Aggregate demand is a macroeconomic term and can be compared with the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP represents the total amount of goods and services produced in an economy while aggregate demand is the demand or desire for those goods. Aggregate demand and GDP commonly increase or decrease together.

Aggregate demand equals GDP only in the long run after adjusting for the price level. Short-run aggregate demand measures total output for a single nominal price level without adjusting for inflation. Other variations in calculations can occur depending on the methodologies used and the various components.

Aggregate demand consists of all consumer goods, capital goods, exports, imports, and government spending programs. All variables are considered equal if they trade at the same market value.

Aggregate Demand Components

Aggregate demand is determined by the overall collective spending on products and services by all economic sectors on the procurement of goods and services by four components:

Consumption Spending

Consumer spending represents the demand by individuals and households within the economy. While there are several factors in determining consumer demand, the most important is consumer incomes and the level of taxation.

Investment Spending

Investment spending represents businesses’ investment to support current output and increase production capability. It may include spending on new capital assets such as equipment, facilities, and raw materials.

Government Spending

Government spending represents the demand produced by government programs, such as infrastructure spending and public goods. This does not include services such as Medicare or social security, because these programs simply transfer demand from one group to another.

Net Exports

Net exports represent the demand for foreign goods, as well as the foreign demand for domestic goods. It is calculated by subtracting the total value of a country’s exports from the total value of all imports.

Aggregate Demand Formula

The equation for aggregate demand adds the amount of consumer spending, investment spending, government spending, and the net of exports and imports. The formula is shown as follows:

$\begin{aligned} &\text{Aggregate Demand} = \text{C} + \text{I} + \text{G} + \text{Nx} \\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &\text{C} = \text{Consumer spending on goods and services} \\ &\text{I} = \text{Private investment and corporate spending on} \\ &\text{non-final capital goods (factories, equipment, etc.)} \\ &\text{G} = \text{Government spending on public goods and social} \\ &\text{services (infrastructure, Medicare, etc.)} \\ &\text{Nx} = \text{Net exports (exports minus imports)} \\ \end{aligned}$​Aggregate Demand=C+I+G+Nxwhere:C=Consumer spending on goods and servicesI=Private investment and corporate spending onnon-final capital goods (factories, equipment, etc.)G=Government spending on public goods and socialservices (infrastructure, Medicare, etc.)Nx=Net exports (exports minus imports)​

The aggregate demand formula above is also used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to measure GDP in the U.S.

What Affects Aggregate Demand?

Interest Rates

Interest rates affect decisions made by consumers and businesses. Lower interest rates will lower the borrowing costs for big-ticket items such as appliances, vehicles, and homes and companies will be able to borrow at lower rates, often leading to capital spending increases. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing for consumers and companies and spending tends to decline or grow at a slower pace.

Income and Wealth

As household wealth increases, aggregate demand typically increases. Conversely, a decline in wealth usually leads to lower aggregate demand. When consumers are feeling good about the economy, they tend to spend more and save less.

Inflation Expectations

Consumers who anticipate that inflation will increase or prices will rise tend to make immediate purchases leading to rises in aggregate demand. But if consumers believe prices will fall in the future, aggregate demand typically falls.

Currency Exchange Rates

When the value of the U.S. dollar falls, foreign goods will become more expensive. Meanwhile, goods manufactured in the U.S. will become cheaper for foreign markets. Aggregate demand will, therefore, increase. When the value of the dollar increases, foreign goods are cheaper and U.S. goods become more expensive to foreign markets, and aggregate demand decreases.

Economic Conditions and Aggregate Demand

Economic conditions can impact aggregate demand whether those conditions originated domestically or internationally. The financial crisis of 2007-08, sparked by massive amounts of mortgage loan defaults, and the ensuing Great Recession, offer a good example of a decline in aggregate demand due to economic conditions.

With businesses suffering from less access to capital and fewer sales, they began to lay off workers and GDP growth contracted in 2008 and 2009, resulting in a total production contraction in the economy during that period. A poor-performing economy and rising unemployment led to a decline in personal consumption or consumer spending. Personal savings also surged as consumers held onto cash due to an uncertain future and instability in the banking system.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused reductions in both aggregate supply or production, and aggregate demand or spending. Social distancing measures and concerns about the spread of the virus caused a significant decrease in consumer spending, particularly in services as many businesses closed. These dynamics lowered aggregate demand in the economy. As aggregate demand fell, businesses either laid off part of their workforces or otherwise slowed production as employees contracted COVID-19 at high rates.

Aggregate Demand vs. Aggregate Supply

In times of economic crises, economists often debate as to whether aggregate demand slowed, leading to lower growth, or GDP contracted, leading to less aggregate demand. Whether demand leads to growth or vice versa is economists’ version of the age-old question of what came first—the chicken or the egg.

Boosting aggregate demand also boosts the size of the economy regarding measured GDP. However, this does not prove that an increase in aggregate demand creates economic growth. Since GDP and aggregate demand share the same calculation, it only indicates that they increase concurrently. The equation does not show which is the cause and which is the effect.

Early economic theories hypothesized that production is the source of demand. The 18th-century French classical liberal economist Jean-Baptiste Say stated that consumption is limited to productive capacity and that social demands are essentially limitless, a theory referred to as Say’s Law of Markets.

Say’s law, the basis of supply-side economics, ruled until the 1930s and the advent of the theories of British economist John Maynard Keynes. By arguing that demand drives supply, Keynes placed total demand in the driver’s seat. Keynesian macroeconomists have since believed that stimulating aggregate demand will increase real future output and the total level of output in the economy is driven by the demand for goods and services and propelled by money spent on those goods and services.

Keynes considered unemployment to be a byproduct of insufficient aggregate demand because wage levels would not adjust downward fast enough to compensate for reduced spending. He believed the government could spend money and increase aggregate demand until idle economic resources, including laborers, were redeployed.

Other schools of thought, notably the Austrian School and real business cycle theorists stress consumption is only possible after production. This means an increase in output drives an increase in consumption, not the other way around. Any attempt to increase spending rather than sustainable production only causes maldistribution of wealth or higher prices, or both.

As a demand-side economist, Keynes further argued that individuals could end up damaging production by limiting current expenditures—by hoarding money, for example. Other economists argue that hoarding can impact prices but does not necessarily change capital accumulation, production, or future output. In other words, the effect of an individual’s saving money—more capital available for business—does not disappear on account of a lack of spending.

The Bottom Line

Aggregate demand is a concept of macroeconomics that represents the total demand within an economy for all kinds of goods and services at a certain price point. In the long term, aggregate demand is indistinguishable from GDP. However, aggregate demand is not a perfect metric and it is the subject of debate among economists.

What Is an Annuitant?

An annuitant is an individual who is entitled to collect the regular payments of a pension or an annuity investment. The annuitant may be the contract holder or another person, such as a surviving spouse. Annuities are generally seen as retirement income supplements. They may be tied to an employee pension plan or a life insurance product. The size of the payments is usually determined by the life expectancy of the annuitant as well as the amount invested.

Understanding Annuitants

An annuity is a regular payment of a guaranteed income for life or for some specified number of years. An annuitant may be a retired civil servant who receives a pension plan, or an investor who has paid a sum of money to an insurance company in return for a regular income supplement.

Depending on the specifics of the contract, the owner of an annuity may name one or more annuitants, such as a spouse and an elderly parent, or may arrange a joint annuity. The annuitant can also arrange for the payments to be transferred to a surviving spouse if the need arises. In any case, the annuitant must be a person, not a company, or a trust.

The amount of the payments to an annuitant is based on the individual’s age and life expectancy, and the age and life expectancy of any beneficiaries. For example, if the annuitant is 65 years old, but the annuity is transferrable to his 60-year-old wife if she survives him, the insurance company will calculate that it will make monthly payments for about 24 years, which is the life expectancy of a 60-year-old woman.

In yet another variation, an annuity can be for a term of “life-plus”—that is, the payments will continue for the annuitant’s lifetime and then be transferred to a surviving spouse for a specified period of time.

Types of Annuities

There are many variations of annuity, but they can be boiled down to two basic types:

1. A deferred annuity is often used as a retirement savings vehicle. The annuitant invests money regularly over time in return for a stream of annuity payments at some point in the future. Many company pension plans are structured this way.
2. An immediate annuity is just what it sounds like. The annuitant pays a lump sum of money in return for a series of payments that begin immediately and are paid for life or for a specific period of time. The latter option is called a life plus period certain annuity.

Taxes on Annuitants

Annuities are generally taxed as ordinary income. The portion of the annuity payments that represents the contract holder’s basis is not taxed, only the gain portion. In the case of an employer pension, the entire payment is generally taxed as ordinary income.

What Is an Axe?

An axe (or “axe to grind”) is the interest that a trader shows in buying or selling a security that is typically already on the books. If a trader holds a long position but has short-term concerns, that trader’s axe toward short-term put options may be significant. Likewise, if a trader has risk exposure to an increase in interest rates, they may have an axe to hedge against that risk.

Many times, a trader with an axe will keep that information private. That is because if other market participants become aware of one’s motivations, they can take advantage of that information by offering unfavorable prices or withholding certain trades in order to exploit the situation.

Understanding an Axe

The term “axe” is derived from the phrase “axe to grind,” which means to possess an ulterior motive or selfish aim. The phrase has historically meant to have a grievance with someone, especially where one feels the need to seek retribution. The phrase probably originates from the act of sharpening an axe with a grinding wheel, with the intent (in this definition) to get revenge on someone by maiming or killing them.

Traders often use the term “axe” to represent someone’s particular interest in buying or selling a security that is already in their inventory, or hedging against it. The term was historically used to reference bond holdings, but traders have expanded the use to include all securities. In conversation, the term is often used to speculate about a trader’s plan with regard to a security that they hold.

Axe should not be confused with “ax,” which is a market maker central to the price action of a specific security.

How an Axe is Used in Practice

The term “axe” can be used in many different ways, which makes the context of the conversation important to consider.

Suppose that a trader has a large position in a given security. If that trader shops around for quotes with the intent of selling the stake, the trader who provides the quote may be at a disadvantage if they are unaware that the first trader has an axe with regard to the security. The second trader may ask, “Do they have an axe on this security?” which means “Do they have plans to sell this security?”

Traders may also use the term to represent securities related to the securities that they hold. For instance, a trader may hold a long position and have an axe toward put options if nervous about the stock’s short-term prospects.

Having an axe is often kept secret because knowledge of that information can be used by other market participants to exploit the situation for their own gain, and at the expense of the axe holder. That said, traders with good rapport may ask each other outright if they have a particular axe in the hopes that the other trader’s axe(s) will be opposite from their own—this way they can affect a trade or trades with each other in a mutually beneficial manner.