Indicators, such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands®, are mathematically-based technical analysis tools that traders and investors use to analyze the past and anticipate future price trends and patterns. Where fundamentalists may track economic data, annual reports, or various other measures of corporate profitability, technical traders rely on charts and indicators to help interpret price moves.

The goal when using indicators is to identify trading opportunities. For example, a moving average crossover often signals an upcoming trend change. In this instance, applying the moving average indicator to a price chart allows traders to identify areas where the trend may run out of gas and change direction, which creates a trading opportunity.

Strategies frequently use technical indicators in an objective manner to determine entry, exit, and/or trade management rules. A strategy specifies the exact conditions under which traders are established—called setups—as well as when positions are adjusted and closed. Strategies typically include the detailed use of indicators (often multiple indicators) to establish instances where the trading activity will occur.

While this article does not focus on any specific trading strategy, it serves as an explanation of how indicators and strategies are different (and how they work together) to help technical analysts identify high-probability trading setups.

Indicators

A growing number of technical indicators are available for traders to study, including those in the public domain, such as a moving average or the stochastic oscillator, as well as commercially available proprietary indicators. In addition, many traders develop their own unique indicators, sometimes with the assistance of a qualified programmer. Most indicators have user-defined variables that allow traders to adapt key inputs such as the “look-back period” (how much historical data will be used to form the calculations) to suit their needs.

A moving average, for example, is simply an average of a security’s price over a particular period. The time period is specified in the type of moving average, such as a 50-day or 200-day moving average. The indicator averages the prior 50 or 200 days of price activity, usually using the security’s closing price in its calculation (though other price points, such as the open, high, or low, can also be used). The user defines the length of the moving average as well as the price point that will be used in the calculation.

Strategies

A strategy is a set of objective, absolute rules defining when a trader will take action. Strategies typically include trade filters and triggers, both of which are often based on indicators. Trade filters identify the setup conditions; trade triggers identify exactly when a particular action should be taken. A trade filter, for example, might be a price that has closed above its 200-day moving average. This sets the stage for the trade trigger, which is the actual condition that prompts the trader to act. A trade trigger might occur when the price reaches one tick above the bar that breached the 200-day moving average.

A strategy that is too basic—like buying when price moves above the moving average—is usually not viable because a simple rule can be too evasive and does not provide any definitive details for taking action. Here are examples of some questions that need to be answered to create an objective strategy:

• What type of moving average will be used, including length and price point used in the calculation?
• How far above the moving average does the price need to move?
• Should the trade be entered as soon as the price moves a specified distance above the moving average, at the close of the bar, or at the open of the next bar?
• What type of order will be used to place the trade? Limit or market?
• How many contracts or shares will be traded?
• What are the money management rules?
• What are the exit rules?

All of these questions must be answered to develop a concise set of rules to form a strategy.

Using Technical Indicators

An indicator is not a trading strategy. While an indicator can help traders identify market conditions, a strategy is a trader’s rule book and traders often use multiple indicators to form a trading strategy. However, different types or categories of indicators—such as one momentum indicator and one trend indicator—are typically recommended when using more than one indicator in a strategy.

Using three different indicators of the same type—momentum, for example—results in the multiple counting of the same information, a statistical term referred to as multicollinearity. Multicollinearity should be avoided since it produces redundant results and can make other variables appear less important. Instead, traders should select indicators from different categories. Frequently, one of the indicators is used to confirm that another indicator is producing an accurate signal.

A moving average strategy, for example, might employ the use of a momentum indicator for confirmation that the trading signal is valid. Relative strength index (RSI), which compares the average price change of advancing periods with the average price change of declining periods, is an example of a momentum indicator.

Like other technical indicators, RSI has user-defined variable inputs, including determining what levels will represent overbought and oversold conditions. RSI, therefore, can be used to confirm any signals that the moving average produces. Opposing signals might indicate that the signal is less reliable and that the trade should be avoided.

Each indicator and indicator combination requires research to determine the most suitable application given the trader’s style and risk tolerance. One advantage of quantifying trading rules into a strategy is that it allows traders to apply the strategy to historical data to evaluate how the strategy would have performed in the past, a process known as backtesting. Of course, finding patterns that existed in the past does not guarantee future results, but it can certainly help in the development of a profitable trading strategy.

Regardless of which indicators are used, a strategy must identify exactly how the readings will be interpreted and precisely what action will be taken. Indicators are tools that traders use to develop strategies; they do not create trading signals on their own. Any ambiguity can lead to trouble (in the form of trading losses).

Choosing Indicators to Develop a Strategy

The type of indicator a trader uses to develop a strategy depends on what type of strategy the individual plans on building. This relates to trading style and risk tolerance. A trader who seeks long-term moves with large profits might focus on a trend-following strategy, and, therefore, utilize a trend-following indicator such as a moving average. A trader interested in small moves with frequent small gains might be more interested in a strategy based on volatility. Again, different types of indicators may be used for confirmation.

Traders do have the option to purchase “black box” trading systems, which are commercially available proprietary strategies. An advantage to purchasing these black box systems is that all of the research and backtesting has theoretically been done for the trader; the disadvantage is that the user is “flying blind” since the methodology is not usually disclosed, and often the user is unable to make any customizations to reflect their trading style.

The Bottom Line

Indicators alone do not make trading signals. Each trader must define the exact method in which the indicators will be used to signal trading opportunities and to develop strategies. Indicators can certainly be used without being incorporated into a strategy; however, technical trading strategies usually include at least one type of indicator.

Identifying an absolute set of rules, as with a strategy, allows traders to backtest to determine the viability of a particular strategy. It also helps traders understand the mathematical expectancy of the rules or how the strategy should perform in the future. This is critical to technical traders since it helps to continually evaluate the performance of the strategy and can help determine if and when it is time to close a position.

Traders often talk about a holy grail—the one trading secret that will lead to instant profitability. Unfortunately, there is no perfect strategy that will guarantee success for each investor. Each individual has a unique style, temperament, risk tolerance, and personality. As such, it is up to each trader to learn about the variety of technical analysis tools that are available, research how they perform according to their individual needs, and develop strategies based on the results.

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The rectangle is a classical technical analysis pattern described by horizontal lines showing significant support and resistance. It can be successfully traded by buying at support and selling at resistance or by waiting for a breakout from the formation and using the measuring principle.

The Rectangle in Classical Technical Analysis

The rectangle formation is an example of a “price pattern” in technical analysis. Price patterns derive from the work of Richard Schabaker, considered the father of technical analysis, and Edwards and Magee, who wrote what many consider the bible on the subject.

This period of technical analysis derives from a time when charts were kept by hand on graph paper and even simple moving averages (SMA) had to be maintained by hand or with the use of a large, clunky adding machine.

Rather than modern technical analysis, which relies on indicators, such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), technical analysts assumed that price patterns repeat themselves over and over throughout time. Pattern recognition meant pattern prediction and thus trading profit.

Many of the price patterns are based on geometrical figures. There are ascending, descending and symmetrical triangles, pennants and wedges. Occasionally, more fancifulshapes are seen, such as the head-and-shoulders formation.

The Rectangle: Supply and Demand in Balance

A price chart or graph may be thought of as an X-ray of supply and demand. Figure 1 describes a rectangle pattern where supply and demand are in approximate balance for an extended period of time. The shares move in a narrow range, hitting resistance at the rectangle’s top and finding support at its bottom. The rectangle can occur over a protracted period of time or form quickly amid a relatively wide-ranging series of bounded fluctuations. Schabaker notes that it can approach a square in its proportions.

In any case, it is a pattern which shows trader indecision, one in which the bulls and bears are approximately equally powerful.

Most technicians agree, the rectangle can serve as either a reversal or continuation formation. As a reversal pattern, it ends a trend either up or down. As a continuation pattern, it signifies a pause in the prevailing trend, with the expectation that the prior trend will eventually resume. In either case, the rectangle shows a tug of war between buyers and sellers. Ultimately, either accumulation or distribution prevails, and the shares breakout or breakdown.

“Significant” Support and Resistance

The concepts of support and resistance are critical to understanding the rectangle formation.

• Support is defined as any price point below the current market price where buying should emerge to create, at least temporarily, a pause in a downtrend.
• Resistance, on the other hand, is any price above the current market price where selling should emerge to create, at least temporarily, a pause in an uptrend.

In a rectangle, what may be referred to as “significant” support or resistance emerges – that is, a price level returned to again and again. Whereas trendlines in technical analysis are typically drawn on a diagonal, the diagramming of support and resistance requires horizontal trendlines.

ImClone Systems: an Example of a Rectangle Formation

Figure 2 of ImClone Systems (IMCL) employs open-high-low-close bars (rather than candlesticks) and is absent of any indicators, such as MACD. The only addition is a 30-week moving average (MA), which could have been calculated in the classical era.

Several observations are worth making on this chart. First, note that an intermediate uptrend line, in force for approximately one year, is broken. The break shows the uptrend has ended. Thus, the prolonged rectangle can either be a reversal or consolidation formation. Until there is a breakdown or breakout from the confines of the rectangle – roughly $37.50 to $47.50 – the pattern’s interpretation is uncertain.

Second, horizontal lines drawn on the chart denote significant support and resistance. Significant support was first established in September, tested twice in the early part of the year and retested in June. At each test of support, there was sufficient buying interest to drive the stock higher.

Significant resistance at $47.50 was first touched in August, then probed in October, April and July. At each juncture, the sellers overwhelmed buyers, and the stock receded. This vacillation between significant support and resistance creates the rectangle shape.

One final observation is the slope of the 30-week MA. Of all moving averages, this may best describe the trend. It relates to the rectangle by showing the sideways nature of the formation. In an uptrend or downtrend, the 30-week MA will slope up or down, not sideways. Note how in the early stages of the chart it sloped higher, mimicking the uptrend. Later it flattened and began to slope sideways, showing the prolonged consolidation.

Trading the Rectangle

The following are two basic strategies for trading a rectangle:

• The first is to buy at support and sell at resistance (one can also sell short at resistance and cover the short sale at support). To mitigate risk, in case the stock breaks down from support, a very tight stop can be employed of perhaps 3%. For example, if one bought ImClone at $37.50, the stop-loss would be 3% lower than $37.50 or $1.12. The trader would exit the position if the stock hit $36.38 ($37.50-$1.12).
• Another method to trade the rectangle is to wait for the breakout. As with all technical patterns, this breakout should ideally occur on above-normal volume. To know when to consider exiting the trade, the trader could use the measuring principle described below.

The Measuring Principle

The measuring principle allows you to set a specific minimum price target. Such a target should give you the objectivity to hold during periods of minor countertrend movement.

The measuring principle works with any well-defined technical analysis pattern, such as a rectangle or triangle. To calculate the minimum target, first establish the height of the pattern. In the case of ImClone Systems Figure 3 shows the calculation as follows:

Candlestick patterns provide insight into price action at a glance. While the basic candlestick patterns may provide some insight into what the market is thinking, these simpler patterns often generate false signals because they are so common.

Below, we will look at more advanced candlestick patterns that offer a higher degree of reliability. These include the island reversal, hook reversal, three gaps and kicker patterns.

Island Reversal Pattern

Island reversals are strong short-term trend reversal signals. They are identified by a gap between a reversal candlestick and two candles on either side of it. Here is a bullish example. The price is moving down, gaps lower, then gaps up and continues higher.

Below is a bearish example of the same pattern.

Entry: The island reversal shows indecision and a battle between bulls and bears. This is often characterized by a long-ended doji candle that has high volume occurring after an extended trend. It is after the gap and move in the opposite direction that a trade is taken. For the bearish pattern, enter short after the gap and move in the opposite direction. For the bullish pattern, enter long after the gap and move in the opposite direction.

Exit: An exit refers to both the target and stop-loss. With this pattern, you want to capture the thrust in price that follows that pattern, but once that thrust starts to weaken, it is time to get out. If the price moves back to fill the gap, then the reversal pattern is invalidated, and you should exit right away. Therefore, a stop-loss can be placed in the gap or near the “island” candle.

Hook Reversal Pattern

Hook reversals are short- to medium-term reversal patterns. They are identified by a higher low and a lower high compared with the previous day. Here are bullish and bearish examples of the patterns.

Below is a bearish example of the same pattern.

Entry: On the bullish pattern, there is downtrend, followed by two up days. The first or second up day breaks the high of the last down day. It is the second up day when a long trade should be taken, as the pattern indicates that the price could continue to rally. For the bearish pattern, there is an uptrend, followed by two down days, and either the first or second down day breaks the low of the last up day. It is the second down day on which a short trade should be taken, as the pattern indicates the price could slide lower.

Exit: Know your exit points before trading this pattern. In most cases, you will see a sharp reversal, as shown in the chart above. Anything to the contrary indicates that the pattern is not working, so exit immediately. Therefore, a stop-loss can be placed above the recent high for a bearish pattern, or below the recent low for the bullish pattern. We can’t know how long the reversal will last based on the pattern alone. Therefore, maintain the trade for as long as the price is moving in the expected direction. When the move weakens or a pattern in the opposite direction occurs, take your profit.

San-Ku (Three Gaps) Pattern

The San-ku pattern is an anticipatory trend reversal signal. The pattern does not indicate an exact point of reversal. Rather, it indicates that a reversal is likely to occur in the near future. The pattern is created by three trading sessions in a row with gaps in between. While each candle doesn’t necessarily have to be large, usually at least two or three of the candles are. 

Here is a three gaps pattern that signaled the end of an uptrend. The price is accelerating higher. There are three gaps higher in a row. Since such momentum can’t last forever, the buyers are eventually exhausted and price moves the other way.

Entry: This pattern operates on the premise that the price is likely to retreat after a sharp move because traders will start taking profits. For additional evidence of the possibility of a reversal, look for extremes in the relative strength index (RSI) or await a crossover of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD).

Exit: This pattern anticipates a reversal. If it doesn’t happen, get out of any trade that was taken because of this pattern. Price must follow through in the anticipated direction in order for the signal to be valid. Stop-loss orders can be placed above the high of the pattern if going short. Ride the downward momentum while it lasts. Since it is unknown how long the sell-off will last, take profits when you see a reversal signal in the opposite direction or when the selling momentum slows.

Kicker Pattern

The kicker pattern is one of the strongest and most reliable candlestick patterns. It is characterized by a very sharp reversal in price during the span of two candlesticks. In this example, the price is moving lower, and then the trend is reversed by a gap and large candle in the opposite direction. The first large green candle is the kicker candle. The second strong green candle shows the follow through of the powerful pattern and helps confirm that a reversal is in place.

Entry: This kind of price action tells you that one group of traders has overpowered the other and that a new trend is being established. Ideally, you should look for a gap between the first and second candles, along with high volume. Enter near the close of the kicker candle (first green candle in chart above) or near the open of the second candle.

Exit: Place a stop-loss below the low of the kicker candle. Because kicker candles can be so large, this may mean your stop-loss is a sizable distance away from your entry point. As for a target, this pattern often results in a strong trend change, which means that traders can ride the momentum of the kicker for a short-term trade, or even potentially a medium-term one, as the price could continue in the direction for some time.

Why These Patterns Work

All of these patterns are characterized by the price moving one way, and then candles in the opposite direction appear that significantly thrust into the prior trend. Such occurrences rattle the traders who were betting on the prior trend continuing, often forcing them out of their positions as their stop-loss levels are hit. This helps fuel a continued move in the new direction. This idea comes from a simpler candlestick concept called thrusting lines. For example, if there is an uptrend, if a down candle forms but stays within the upper half of the last upward candle, little damage is done to the trend. But if the down candle moves more than halfway down the last upward candle, then more than half the people who bought during that upward day are in a losing position, and that could lead to further selling.

The patterns above are even more powerful because the sharp change in direction leaves many people in losing positions that they need to get out of. Also, as traders spot the reversal, they jump into trades in the new direction. Both these factors – prior traders getting out and new traders getting in – help propel the price in the new direction.

All that said, attempting to trade reversals can be risky in any situation because you are trading against the prevailing trend. Keep the larger picture in mind. For example, during a strong multi-year uptrend, a reversal signal may indicate only a few days of selling before the bigger uptrend starts up again.

The Bottom Line

These advanced candlesticks are associated with strong price moves, and often gaps, which cause sharp shifts in direction. Traders can participate by noticing these patterns and acting quickly to get in as the price moves in the new direction. Candlestick patterns do not have price targets, which means traders shouldn’t get greedy. Ride the momentum for as long as it lasts, but get out if signs of trouble occur. Utilize stop-loss orders or a trailing stop-loss.