Posts Tagged ‘trading’

How to Apply Technical Indicators to Mutual Funds

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Most investors evaluate mutual funds using the principles of fundamental rather than technical analysis. Mutual funds tend to be long-term, buy-and-hold investments, and technical analysis is better suited to shorter-term trading.

That said, investors should not overlook the value of some common technical indicators to provide trading insights for almost any kind of investment or financial instrument, including mutual funds. Below are five common technical indicators that can be applied to mutual funds.

Key Takeaways

  • Mutual funds are most often evaluated using fundamental analysis as opposed to technical analysis, which is more commonly used for shorter-term trading.
  • Technical analysis, however, can provide a significant amount of insight into most investments and financial assets, including mutual funds.
  • Common technical indicators that can help evaluate a mutual fund as a good or bad investment include trendlines, moving averages, the relative strength index (RSI), support and resistance levels, and chart formations.

1. Trendlines

Most technical analysis starts with trendlines, which are lines that connect multiple price points and extend into the future to identify price trends and areas of support/resistance. For mutual funds, look at a long-term price chart in order to determine its trend.

A trendline can be plotted by drawing a line that connects multiple lows of a mutual fund over time. The fund may have tested this trendline on numerous occasions over the years. If the fund price breaks conclusively through a well-established, long-term trendline, it is a bearish signal. An investor in such a fund should consider selling their fund holdings if this occurs.

Conversely, a breakout above a well-defined trendline may be a bullish signal, indicating the investor should stay in the fund. 

2. Moving Averages

Moving averages are averages of time-series data, such as prices. Investors can use these to identify price trends of a mutual fund. A rising moving average suggests that the fund is in an uptrend, while a declining moving average would indicate that it is in a downtrend.

A second major application arises from the crossover of two moving averages, for example, a short-term, 20-day moving average and a long-term, 200-day moving average.

If the 20-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average, this would be considered a bullish signal for the mutual fund. Conversely, if the 20-day moving average breaks below the 200-day moving average, this would be a bearish signal.

The 200-day moving average is considered a key technical indicator, with breaks above or below that regarded as important trading signals. It is especially suited for mutual fund technical analysis because of its longer-term nature.

3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in order to evaluate whether the mutual fund is overbought or oversold.

An RSI above 70 would suggest that the mutual fund is overbought and its value is overpriced and poised to retreat. An RSI below 30 indicates an oversold state that may trigger a bounce, which may bolster a value investor’s buy decision.

4. Support and Resistance

A support level is formed when a mutual fund trades down to a certain level and then bounces back up. Over time, this level becomes an area of strong support for the mutual fund. Conversely, a resistance area is formed when the fund is unable to break above a certain price level.

Support and resistance levels highlight the direction of the market and help determine entry and exit points.

The further apart these tests of support and resistance, and the more frequent that the fund trades down or up to the support or resistance level, the more formidable they become. A break of long-term support is very bearish and may signal a substantial downside for the mutual fund. A move above long-term resistance is very bullish and signals significant upside.

5. Chart Formations

There are a number of different chart types used in technical analysis, with the most common being line charts and bar charts.

Advanced users may prefer candlestick charts to point-and-figure charts. Chart formations for a mutual fund can be interpreted like stocks. The head-and-shoulders pattern, for instance, is interpreted as being quite bearish for the fund, while the reverse head-and-shoulders pattern is viewed as a bullish signal.

A chart pattern that is easy to identify and that has a high degree of reliability is the double or triple top or bottom. A double top or triple top is typically formed after a long period and signals an imminent trend reversal; if a mutual fund that has been trending higher is unable to break through this formation, it may be headed lower. Conversely, a fund that has formed a double or triple bottom may be poised to move higher.

The Bottom Line

While mutual funds do not readily lend themselves to technical analysis, investors can apply some common technical indicators to predict mutual fund movements. Technical indicators like trendlines, moving averages, RSIs, and chart formations are widely used in mutual fund analysis as they provide reliable signals that are easy to interpret.

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Strategies for Trading Fibonacci Retracements

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Leonardo Pisano, nicknamed Fibonacci, was an Italian mathematician born in Pisa in the year 1170. His father Guglielmo Bonaccio worked at a trading post in Bugia, now called Béjaïa, a Mediterranean port in northeastern Algeria. As a young man, Fibonacci studied mathematics in Bugia, and during his extensive travels, he learned about the advantages of the Hindu-Arabic numeral system.

Key Takeaways

  • In the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, after 0 and 1, each number is the sum of the two prior numbers.
  • In the context of trading, the numbers used in Fibonacci retracements are not numbers in Fibonacci’s sequence; instead, they are derived from mathematical relationships between numbers in the sequence.
  • Fibonacci retracement levels are depicted by taking high and low points on a chart and marking the key Fibonacci ratios horizontally to produce a grid; these horizontal lines are used to identify possible price reversal points.

The Golden Ratio

In 1202, after returning to Italy, Fibonacci documented what he had learned in the “Liber Abaci (“Book of Abacus). In the “Liber Abaci,” Fibonacci described the numerical series that is now named after him. In the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, after 0 and 1, each number is the sum of the two prior numbers. Hence, the sequence is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 and so on, extending to infinity. Each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding number.

This value:1.618 is called Phi or the “Golden Ratio“. The Golden Ratio mysteriously appears frequently in the natural world, architecture, fine art, and biology. For example, the ratio has been observed in the Parthenon, in Leonardo da Vinci’s painting the Mona Lisa, sunflowers, rose petals, mollusk shells, tree branches, human faces, ancient Greek vases, and even the spiral galaxies of outer space.

0.618

The inverse of the golden ratio (1.618) is 0.618, which is also used extensively in Fibonacci trading.

Fibonacci Levels Used in the Financial Markets

In the context of trading, the numbers used in Fibonacci retracements are not numbers in Fibonacci’s sequence; instead, they are derived from mathematical relationships between numbers in the sequence. The basis of the “golden” Fibonacci ratio of 61.8% comes from dividing a number in the Fibonacci series by the number that follows it.

For example, 89/144 = 0.6180. The 38.2% ratio is derived from dividing a number in the Fibonacci series by the number two places to the right. For example: 89/233 = 0.3819. The 23.6% ratio is derived from dividing a number in the Fibonacci series by the number three places to the right. For example: 89/377 = 0.2360. 

Fibonacci retracement levels are depicted by taking high and low points on a chart and marking the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, and 61.8% horizontally to produce a grid. These horizontal lines are used to identify possible price reversal points.

The 50% retracement level is normally included in the grid of Fibonacci levels that can be drawn using charting software. While the 50% retracement level is not based on a Fibonacci number, it is widely viewed as an important potential reversal level, notably recognized in Dow Theory and also in the work of W.D. Gann.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels as Trading Strategy

Fibonacci retracements are often used as part of a trend-trading strategy. In this scenario, traders observe a retracement taking place within a trend and try to make low-risk entries in the direction of the initial trend using Fibonacci levels. Traders using this strategy anticipate that a price has a high probability of bouncing from the Fibonacci levels back in the direction of the initial trend.

For example, on the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see that a major downtrend began in May 2014 (point A). The price then bottomed in June (point B) and retraced upward to approximately the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down move (point C). 

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


In this case, the 38.2% level would have been an excellent place to enter a short position in order to capitalize on the continuation of the downtrend that started in May. There is no doubt that many traders were also watching the 50% retracement level and the 61.8% retracement level, but in this case, the market was not bullish enough to reach those points. Instead, EUR/USD turned lower, resuming the downtrend movement and taking out the prior low in a fairly fluid movement.

The likelihood of a reversal increases if there is a confluence of technical signals when the price reaches a Fibonacci level. Other popular technical indicators that are used in conjunction with Fibonacci levels include candlestick patterns, trendlines, volume, momentum oscillators, and moving averages. A greater number of confirming indicators in play equates to a more robust reversal signal.

Fibonacci retracements are used on a variety of financial instruments, including stocks, commodities, and foreign currency exchanges. They are also used on multiple timeframes. However, as with other technical indicators, the predictive value is proportional to the time frame used, with greater weight given to longer timeframes. For example, a 38.2% retracement on a weekly chart is a far more important technical level than a 38.2% retracement on a five-minute chart.

Using Fibonacci Extensions

While Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to forecast potential areas of support or resistance where traders can enter the market in hopes of catching the resumption of an initial trend, Fibonacci extensions can complement this strategy by giving traders Fibonacci-based profit targets. Fibonacci extensions consist of levels drawn beyond the standard 100% level and can be used by traders to project areas that make good potential exits for their trades in the direction of the trend. The major Fibonacci extension levels are 161.8%, 261.8% and 423.6%.

Let’s take a look at an example here, using the same EUR/USD daily chart:

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


Looking at the Fibonacci extension level drawn on the EUR/USD chart above, we can see that a potential price target for a trader holding a short position from the 38% retracement described earlier lies below at the 161.8% level, at 1.3195.

The Bottom Line

Fibonacci retracement levels often indicate reversal points with uncanny accuracy. However, they are harder to trade than they look in retrospect. These levels are best used as a tool within a broader strategy. Ideally, this strategy is one that looks for the confluence of several indicators to identify potential reversal areas offering low-risk, high-potential-reward trade entries.

Fibonacci trading tools, however, tend to suffer from the same problems as other universal trading strategies, such as the Elliott Wave theory. That said, many traders find success using Fibonacci ratios and retracements to place transactions within long-term price trends.

Fibonacci retracement can become even more powerful when used in conjunction with other indicators or technical signals. Investopedia Academy’s Technical Analysis course covers these indicators as well as how to transform patterns into actionable trading plans.

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Divergence vs. Convergence What’s the Difference?

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Divergence vs. Convergence: An Overview

There are numerous trends and tools in the world of economics and finance. Some of them describe opposing forces, such as divergence and convergence. Divergence generally means two things are moving apart while convergence implies that two forces are moving together. In the world of economics, finance, and trading, divergence and convergence are terms used to describe the directional relationship of two trends, prices, or indicators. But as the general definitions imply, these two terms refer to how these relationships move. Divergence indicates that two trends move further away from each other while convergence indicates how they move closer together.

Key Takeaways

  • Divergence occurs when the price of an asset and an indicator move away from each other.
  • Convergence happens when the price of an asset and an indicator move toward each other.
  • Divergence can be either positive or negative.
  • Convergence occurs because an efficient market won’t allow something to trade for two prices at the same time
  • Technical traders are more interested in divergence as a signal to trade while the absence of convergence is an opportunity for arbitrage.

Divergence

When the value of an asset, indicator, or index moves, the related asset, indicator, or index moves in the other direction. This is what is referred to as divergence. Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction.

Divergence can be either positive or negative. For example, positive divergence occurs when a stock is nearing a low but its indicators start to rally. This would be a sign of trend reversal, potentially opening up an entry opportunity for the trader. On the other hand, negative divergence happens when prices go higher while the indicator signals a new low.

When divergence does occur, it does not mean the price will reverse or that a reversal will occur soon. In fact, divergence can last a long time, so acting on it alone could be mean substantial losses if the price does not react as expected. Traders generally don’t exclusively rely on divergence in their trading activities. That’s because it doesn’t provide timely trade signals on its own. 

Technical analysis focuses on patterns of price movements, trading signals, and various other analytical signals to inform trades, as opposed to fundamental analysis, which tries to find an asset’s intrinsic value.

Convergence

The term convergence is the opposite of divergence. It is used to describe the phenomenon of the futures price and the cash price of the underlying commodity moving closer together over time. In most cases, traders refer to convergence as a way to describe the price action of a futures contract.

Theoretically, convergence happens because an efficient market won’t allow something to trade for two prices at the same time. The actual market value of a futures contract is lower than the contract price at issue because traders have to factor in the time value of the security. As the expiration date on the contract approaches, the premium on the time value shrinks, and the two prices converge.

If the prices did not converge, traders would take advantage of the price difference to make a quick profit. This would continue until prices converged. When prices don’t converge, there is an opportunity for arbitrage. Arbitrage is when an asset is bought and sold at the same time, in different markets, to take advantage of a temporary price difference. This situation takes advantage of inefficiencies in the market.

Key Differences

Technical traders are much more concerned with divergence than convergence, largely because convergence is assumed to occur in a normal market. Many technical indicators commonly use divergence as tools, primarily oscillators. They map out bands (both high and low ones) that occur between two extreme values. They then build trend indicators that flow within those boundaries.

Divergence is a phenomenon that is commonly interpreted to mean that a trend is weak or potentially unsustainable. Traders who employ technical analysis as part of their trading strategies use divergence to read the underlying momentum of an asset.

Convergence occurs when the price of an asset, indicator, or index moves in the same direction as a related asset, indicator, or index in technical analysis. For example, there is convergence when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shows gains at the same time that its accumulation/distribution line is increasing.

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Industrial ETFs Bouncing Off Key Support

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Despite the overshadow of trade tariffs, industrial stocks remain underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate (35% down to 21%), a push for increased infrastructure spending and a strengthening U.S. housing market. Economic data also shows increased industrial activity. Industrial production, which measures the value of output from manufacturers, mines and utilities, is up 5.1% year over year as of September 2018. The sector should additionally benefit from early investor rotation into value names, robust profit forecasts and increased buyback activity.

Senior analyst at Wolfe Research Nigel Coe told Barron’s that he believes industrial stocks can maintain strong growth momentum while the Federal Reserve’s policy remains loose and supportive of growth. However, he cautioned that companies in the sector need to grow into their earnings multiplesforward earnings currently sit at 16.7 times as of October 2018. Price action also suggests that industrial stocks are at key support levels. Three leading exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the sector have all bounced at critical technical areas on their respective charts. Let’s further analyze each fund.

Launched in 2006, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF seeks to track the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select / Aerospace & Defense Index. The fund invests in companies that manufacture, assemble and distribute airplane and defense equipment. ITA charges investors an annual management fee of 0.43% and has returned 9.3% year to date (YTD) as of October 2018. The recent pullback found support on the uptrend line the connects the early May and late June swing lows. This $200 support level on the chart also finds support from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), making it a high-probability buying area. A stop-loss order could be placed just below the candlestick that reversed on the trendline/moving average.

The Invesco DWA Industrials Momentum ETF, also created in 2006, aims to provide similar returns to the DWA Industrials Technical Leaders Index. The ETF’s portfolio holds U.S. industrial firms that are showing strong relative strength and price momentum. As of October 2018, the fund has a -4.69% YTD return and charges a 0.6% management fee. PRN’s chart appears to be forming a double bottom – the most recent swing low found support near the early May swing low at the $57 level. Short-term momentum looks to be moving back to the upside, with the relative strength index (RSI) crossing back above 30. Stops should be placed slightly below double bottom pattern to protect trading capital.

Formed in 2013, the Fidelity MSCI Industrials ETF attempts to replicate the performance of the MSCI USA IMI Industrials Index. It holds companies that cover the broad U.S. industrials sector. The fund has a low expense ratio of just 0.08%, well below the 0.5% category average. Performance wise, FIDU has returned -1.33% YTD. Although FIDU’s share price is trading below the 200-day SMA, it found strong support from the uptrend line that commenced in early May. The recent bounce at the $37.5 support level has moved the RSI out of oversold territory and occurred on above-average volume. Traders who take a long position should protect it with a stop below the most recent swing low.

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