Posts Tagged ‘trading’

Daily Analysis 20230502

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

May 02nd 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes slightly lower following JPMorgan’s takeover of fallen First Republic

The Dow Jones Industrial Averag
e inched lower Monday in the wake of the government’s seizure of First Republic over the weekend and the bank’s subsequent sale to JPMorgan Chase.

Dow……34052 -46.5 -0.14%
Nasdaq12213 -13.99 -0.11%
S&P 500.4168 -1.6 -0.04%

FTSE…..7871 closed +0%
Dax……15922 closed +0%
CAC……7492 closed +0%

Nikkei…..29123 +266.7 +0.92%
HSI………19895 closed +0%
Shanghai.3323 closed +0%

IDX…..6915.72 closed +0%
LQ45….961.75 closed +0%
IDX30…501.01 closed +0%

IDXEnergy…2094.86 closed +0%
IDX BscMat 1171.17 closed +0%
IDX Indstrl…1207.23 closed +0%
IDXNONCYC.726.67 closed +0%
IDX Hlthcare1541.67closed +0%
IDXCYCLIC…..810.83closed +0%
IDX Techno..4937.07’closed +0%
IDX Transp..1809.88 closed +0%
IDX Infrast…..822.05 closed +0%
IDX Finance.1385.54 closed +0%
IDX Banking.1151.04 closed +0%
IDX Property…700 closed +0%

Indo10Yr.6.7151 closed +0%
ICBI….356.7992 closed +0%
US2Yr.4.1407 +0.1199 +2.98%
US5Yr 3.6328 +0.1345 +3.84%‼
US10Yr3.5700+0.1370 +3.84%‼
US30Yr.3.8090+0.1270 +3.45%‼
VIX…… 16.08 +0.30 +1.90%

USDIndx102.1510 +0.6480 +0.64%
Como Indx.266.32 -1.83 -0.68%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…154.49 +0.59 +0.38%

IndoCDS..90.11 -8.90 -8.98%👍
(5-yr INOCD5) (28/04)

IDR…..14674.50👍 closed +0%
Jisdor.14661.00👍 closed +0%

Euro……1.0975 -0.0044 -0.40%

TLKM..28.51 -0.29 -1.01%
(4180)
EIDO….24.68 -0.07 -0.26%
EEM….39.00 -0.13 -0.33%

Oil……75.68 -1.10 -1.43%
Gold.1991.20 -7.90 -0.40%
Timah..26088.00 closed +0%
(Closed 28/04)
Nickel..24259.00 closed +0%
(Closed 28/04)
Silver……25.25 +0.02 +0.08%
Copper…393.40 +4.35 +1.12%

Nturl Gas.2.313 -0.0850 -3.54%

Coal price.185.15 closed +0%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.187.60 closed +0%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.191.60 closed +0%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.195.85 closed +0%
(Agt/Newcastle)

Coal price.136.40 closed +0%
(May/Rotterdam)
Coal price.132.80 closed +0%
(Jun/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.80 closed +0%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price 136.40 closed +0%
(Agt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jul)…3353 closed +0%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..584.50 -0.50 -0.09%
SoybeanOil51.81 +0.14 +0.17%
Wheat….618.25 -15.50 -2.45%

Wood pulp..4000.00 unch +0%
(Closed 01/05)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US closing merah kemaren, Europe closed, Asia kebanyakan tutup, Nikkei ijo. Interest Rate US naik lagi, ga bagus buat saham ini

Oil gas merah, coal market (Newcastle/Rotterdam) closed, Gold merah, silver copper ijo

IHSG – Stoch Up, MACD up, MFI flat, w% masih uptrend, BD FF acc, rejection candle di fibo 50, tapi harusnya masih firm retracement pattern, sekalian breakout double bottom. Semoga cepet rally lagi

Industrials melemah, Infrastructure, Basic Materials, Transportation siap jalan, Technology Healthcare sama Consumer Non-Cyclicals terlihat mau nyusul. Financials melemah, kalo lanjut melemah bahaya buat index

Stochastic Buy Signal banyak, kita sort yang FNB atau BD accum: ADRO ICBP ADMR ASSA BRMS LPPF

MACD Buy Signal: ACES GOTO SRTG ADMR ISAT

Alligator Buy Signal: BBTN TOWR

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Daily Analysis 20230428

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 28th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow and S&P 500 post best day since January; Nasdaq climbs 2% as Big Tech rallies

Stocks finished Thursday higher as strong results from Meta Platforms
boosted tech-related names.

Dow……33826 +524.3 +1.67%
Nasdaq12142 +287.9 +2.43%
S&P 500.4135 +79.4 +1.96%

FTSE…..7832 -21.1 -0.27%
Dax……15800 +4.7 +0.03%
CAC……7484 +17.2 +0.23%

Nikkei…..28458 +41.2 +0.14%
HSI………19840 +83.01 +0.42%
Shanghai.3286 +21.8 +0.67%

IDX…..6945.48 +35.33 +0.51%
LQ45….965.08 +1.88 +0.19%
IDX30…503.31 +1.15 +0.23%

IDXEnergy…2100.78 +3.53 +0.17%
IDX BscMat 1161.15 -2.62 -0.23%
IDX Indstrl…1226.68 -1.00 -0.08%
IDXNONCYC.719.96 +4.19 +0.58%
IDX Hlthcare1523.84 -7.28 -0.48%
IDXCYCLIC…..809.15 -0.85 -0.10%
IDX Techno..4879.94 +48.81 +1.01%
IDX Transp..1791.17 +13.25 +0.75%
IDX Infrast…..823.92 +5.29. +0.65%
IDX Finance.1387.17 -3.44 -0.25%
IDX Banking.1159.12 +0.73 +0.06%
IDX Property…694 +1.40 +0.21%

Indo10Yr.6.7221 +0.0059 +0.09%
ICBI….356.8889 +0.1975 +0.06%👍
US2Yr.4.0806 +0.1326 +3.36%
US5Yr 3.5981 +0.1040 +2.98%
US10Yr3.5280+0.0830 +2.40%
US30Yr.3.7560+0.0510 +1.37%
VIX…… 17.03 -1.81 -9.61%👍

USDIndx101.5030 +0.0360 +0.04%
Como Indx.265.22 +0.27 +0.10%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…152.53 +0.33 +0.22%

IndoCDS..97.530 +2.460 +2.59%
(5-yr INOCD5) (26/04)

IDR…..14706.50 -129.50 -0.87%👍
Jisdor.14751.00 -131.00 -0.88%👍

Euro……1.1027 -0.0013 -0.12%

TLKM..29.31 +0.15 +0.51%
(4324)
EIDO….24.71 +0.45 +1.85%
EEM….38.93 +0.52 +1.35%

Oil……74.77 +0.43 +0.62%
Gold.1996.70 -3.20 -0.16%
Timah..25754.00 +170.00 +0.66%
(Closed 26/04)
Nickel..24131.50 +473.00 +1.99%
(Closed 27/04)
Silver……25.19 +0.01 +0.04%
Copper…388.70 +3.00 +0.78%

Nturl Gas.2.356 +0.0450 +1.94%

Coal price.189.95 -0.20 -0.11%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.185.90 -4.10 -2.16%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.188.50 -4.50 -2.33%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.192.50 -3.60 -1.84%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.140.00 -0.15 -0.11%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.136.00 +1.10 +0.82%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 132.50 +1.50 +1.15%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.10 +1.20 +0.92%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jul)…3455 -116 -3.25%‼
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..581.50 -19.50 -3.24%‼
SoybeanOil50.83 -1.67 -3.18%‼
Wheat…..629.25 -12.75 -1.99%

Wood pulp..4050.00‼ -60.00 -1.46%
(Closed 26/04)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US ijo tebel, Europe masih tipis2, asia kemaren ijo, IHSG ijo tebel, lanjut ah…

Oil Gas Ijo, Coal Merah, Gold merah, metal2 lain ijo, nikel ijo tebel lagi, GO GO INCO, CPO drop lagi

IHSG – stoch buy, macdup, MFI flat, w% uptrend, BD FF acc, alligator buy, double bottom formed, semoga breakout

Industrials, Infrastructure, disusul Basic Materials dan Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Stochastic Buy Signal: ACES BUKA ESSA PTBA SRTG UNVR AVIA LSIP MLPL

MACD Buy Signal: AMRT KLBF UNVR GGRM

Alligator Buy Signal: AGRO TAPG

Supertrend Buy Signal: UNVR ADHI

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Daily Analysis 20230427

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 27th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow, S&P 500 close lower Wednesday as First Republic woes eclipse Big Tech earnings

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
lost more than 200 points as investors’ worries over First Republic overshadowed their excitement around Big Tech earnings.

Dow……33302 -228.96 -0.68%
Nasdaq11854 +55.2 +0.47%
S&P 500.4055 -15.6 -0.38%

FTSE…..7853 -38.5 -0.49%
Dax……15796 -76.4 -0.48%
CAC……7467 -64.95 -0.86%

Nikkei…..28416 -203.6 -0.71%
HSI………19757 +139.4 +0.71%
Shanghai.3264 -0.8 -0.02%

IDX…..6910.15 +88.34 +1.29%
LQ45….963.21 +14.87 +1.57%
IDX30…502.17 +8.08 +1.64%

IDXEnergy…2097.25 +30.69 +1.49%
IDX BscMat 1163.77 +5.61 +0.48%
IDX Indstrl…1227.68 +20.28 +1.68%
IDXNONCYC.715.67 +8.65 +1.22%
IDX Hlthcare1531.12+15.21 +1.00%
IDXCYCLIC…..810.00 +0.69 +0.09%
IDX Techno..4831.13 -9.64 -0.20%
IDX Transp..1777.92 +46.15 +2.66%
IDX Infrast…..818.64 +10.28 +1.27%
IDX Finance.1390.61 +0.81 +0.06%
IDX Banking.1158.39 +6.52. +0.57%
IDX Property…692 +8.00 +1.18%

Indo10Yr.6.7162 -0.0427 -0.63%👍
ICBI….356.6914 +1.1217 +0.32%👍
US2Yr.3.9480 +0.0008 +0.02%
US5Yr 3.4941 +0.0467 +1.35%
US10Yr3.4450+0.0450 +1.32%
US30Yr.3.7050+0.0490 +1.34%
VIX…… 18.84 +0.08 +0.43%

USDIndx101.4670 -0.3960 -0.39%
Como Indx.264.94 -3.84 -1.43%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…152.19 +0.52 +0.35%

IndoCDS..95.070 +0.010 +0.01%
(5-yr INOCD5) (25/04)

IDR…..14836.00 -103.00 -0.69%👍
Jisdor.14882.00 +27.00 +0.18%

Euro……1.1040 +0.0062 +0.56%

TLKM..29.16 +0.75 +2.64%
(4340)
EIDO…24.26 +0.54 +2.28%
EEM……38.41 +0.22 +0.58%

Oil……74.31 -2.93 -3.79%‼
Gold.1999.90 -8.00 -0.40%
Timah..25584.00 -1062.00 -3.99%‼
(Closed 25/04)
Nickel..23658.50 +398.00 +1.71%
(Closed 26/04)
Silver……25.18 -0.10 -0.40%
Copper…385.70 -1.65 -0.43%

Nturl Gas.2.311 -0.0075 -3.14%‼

Ammonia 3050.00‼ unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(25/04)

Coal price.190.15 +1.10 +0.58%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.190.00 +3.15 +1.69%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.193.00 +1.25 +0.65%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.196.10 +0.50 +0.26%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.140.15 +0.15 +0.11%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.134.90 -3.10 -2.25%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.00 -2.75 -2.05%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 129.90 -2.50 -1.88%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jul)…3571 -67 -1.84%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..601.00 -6.75 -1.11%
SoybeanOil52.50 +0.36 +0.69%
Wheat…..642.00 -11.00 -1.68%

Wood pulp..4110.00‼ -50.00 -1.20%
(Closed 26/04)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

DJI merah Nasdaq ijo, Europe merah, Asia varied, IHSG sama Hangseng jalan. Hari ini koreksi sehat dulu keliatannya

oil gas merah, coal ijo, metal2 merah semua kecuali nikel, pas buat INCO. CPO masih merah lagi

IHSG – kemaren opening jump, tutup gap, closing lebih tinggi, candle long lower shadow, harusnya lanjut sih. Stoch up, MACDup, MFI flat, w% uptrend, BD FF acc, breakout resistance fibo 38, dikit lagi double bottom nya firm. Semoga lanjut rally nya

Industrials, Infrastructure

Stochastic Buy Signal banyak banget, kita liat yang sambil big accum: INCO JPFA APIC SMDR

MACD Buy Signal: CPIN PTBA AVIA LSIP

Alligator Buy Signal: BTPS

Supertrend Buy Signal: INDF ASSA HEAL PTPP SMDR

INCO – stoch buy macd up MFI down w% sw, BD FF acc, udah bikin higher low, posisi di modus volume profile, Elliot wave besarnya masih perkiraan wave 3, walau koreksi jauh tapi ga break bottom wave 2, bisa buy ini

Belum ada spike baru

Harga masih aman

JPFA – Abis drop jauh, sabar tunggu higher low

APIC – wah, saham hajatan, ga berani ah volatile banget gini ngejarnya

Udah tinggal ditunggu guyurannya ini sih

SMDR – stoch buy, macd up, MFI sw, w% uptrend, abis gorengan, koreksi udah sampe fibo 61, ok buat mantul, bikin double bottom, breakout resistance, menarik, kita check spike

Udah ada spike, tapi belum terlalu significant

harga sih aman, tinggal idealnya tunggu spike yang significant kita baru ikut entry

CPIN – sabar tunggu higher low

PTBA – stoch almost buy, macd buy, MFI up, w% uptrend, FF acc BD dist, mencurigakan… itungan proyeksi Elliot wave udah beres wave 5, dan ketemu reg bear div, jangan dulu deh… Buat new entry ga berani

LSIP – masuk saham value investing, stoch buy MACD buy MFI down w% sw, BD FF ngebalik buy, double bottom setelah bikin higher low, ok sih buat BOW setengah candle kemaren, soale pas CPO price juga turun.

Belum ada spike baru

Harga sih aman banget… BOW setengah botol dulu

BTPS – stoch rev down, MACD still up, 833 sell MFI sw w% sw, BD FF dist, udah bikin higher low sih, tapi skip dulu, belum waktunya

INDF – stoch buy macd up,MFI flat, w%uptrend, BD dist, FF acc, baru breakout resistance / neckline CNH, ketemu reg bear RSI, bisa BOW sih ini, stoploss kalo breakdown neckline lagi

Belum ah, ada reg bear ga ada spike bd dist… skip dulu

ASSA – stoch sell macd up 833buy.BD acc FF acc tipis, MFI down, w% uptrend, telat sih entry nya harusnya di MACD kemaren, walau sekarang ikut 833 bisa jadi ok continuation

Belum spike significant lagi

HEAL – stoch overbought, MACD up, MFI up BD FF acc, w% up, deket fibo 38, sabar tunggu bikin higher low di fibo 23

Spike lumayan

 

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McGinley Dynamic: The Reliable Unknown Indicator

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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The McGinley Dynamic is a little-known yet highly reliable indicator invented by John R. McGinley, a chartered market technician and former editor of the Market Technicians Association’s Journal of Technical Analysis. Working within the context of moving averages throughout the 1990s, McGinley sought to invent a responsive indicator that would automatically adjust itself in relation to the speed of the market.

His eponymous Dynamic, first published in the Journal of Technical Analysis in 1997, is a 10-day simple and exponential moving average with a filter that smooths the data to avoid whipsaws.

Key Takeaways

  • John R. McGinley is a chartered market technician known for his work with technical market strategies and trading techniques.
  • The McGinley Dynamic is a moving average indicator he created in the 1990s that looks to automatically adjust itself to the pace of the financial markets.
  • The technique helps address the tendency to inappropriately apply moving averages.
  • It also helps to account for the gap that often exists between prices and moving average lines.

Simple Moving Average (SMA) vs. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

A simple moving average (SMA) smooths out price action by calculating past closing prices and dividing by the number of periods. To calculate a 10-day simple moving average, add the closing prices of the last 10 days and divide by 10. The smoother the moving average, the slower it reacts to prices.

A 50-day moving average moves slower than a 10-day moving average. A 10- and 20-day moving average can at times experience the volatility of prices that can make it harder to interpret price action. False signals may occur during these periods, creating losses because prices may get too far ahead of the market.

An exponential moving average (EMA) responds to prices much more quickly than a simple moving average. This is because the EMA gives more weight to the latest data rather than older data. It’s a good indicator for the short term and a great method to catch short-term trends, which is why traders use both simple and exponential moving averages simultaneously for entry and exits. Nevertheless, it too can leave data behind.

The Problem With Moving Averages

In his research, McGinley found moving averages had many problems. In the first place, they were inappropriately applied. Moving averages in different periods operate with varying degrees in different markets. For example, how can one know when to use a 10-day, 20-day, or 50-day moving average in a fast or slow market? In order to solve the problem of choosing the right length of the moving average, the McGinley Dynamic was built to automatically adjust to the current speed of the market.

McGinley believes moving averages should only be used as a smoothing mechanism rather than a trading system or signal generator. It is a monitor of trends. Further, McGinley found moving averages failed to follow prices since large separations frequently exist between prices and moving average lines. He sought to eliminate these problems by inventing an indicator that would hug prices more closely, avoid price separation and whipsaws, and follow prices automatically in fast or slow markets.

McGinley Dynamic Formula

This he did with the invention of the McGinley Dynamic. The formula is:


MD i = M D i − 1 + Close − M D i − 1 k × N × ( Close M D i − 1 ) 4 where: MD i = Current McGinley Dynamic M D i − 1 = Previous McGinley Dynamic Close = Closing price k = . 6  (Constant 60% of selected period N) N = Moving average period \begin{aligned} &\text{MD}_i = MD_{i-1} + \frac{ \text{Close} – MD_{i-1} }{ k \times N \times \left ( \frac{ \text{Close} }{ MD_{i-1} } \right )^4 } \\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &\text{MD}_i = \text{Current McGinley Dynamic} \\ &MD_{i-1} = \text{Previous McGinley Dynamic} \\ &\text{Close} = \text{Closing price} \\ &k = .6\ \text{(Constant 60\% of selected period N)} \\ &N = \text{Moving average period} \\ \end{aligned} ​MDi​=MDi−1​+k×N×(MDi−1​Close​)4Close−MDi−1​​where:MDi​=Current McGinley DynamicMDi−1​=Previous McGinley DynamicClose=Closing pricek=.6 (Constant 60% of selected period N)N=Moving average period​

The McGinley Dynamic looks like a moving average line, yet it is actually a smoothing mechanism for prices that turns out to track far better than any moving average. It minimizes price separation, price whipsaws, and hugs prices much more closely. And it does this automatically as a factor of its formula.

Because of the calculation, the Dynamic Line speeds up in down markets as it follows prices yet moves more slowly in up markets. One wants to be quick to sell in a down market, yet ride an up-market as long as possible. The constant N determines how closely the Dynamic tracks the index or stock. If one is emulating a 20-day moving average, for instance, use an N value half that of the moving average, or in this case 10.

It greatly avoids whipsaws because the Dynamic Line automatically follows and stays aligned to prices in any market—fast or slow—like a steering mechanism of a car that can adjust to the changing conditions of the road. Traders can rely on it to make decisions and time entrances and exits.

The Bottom Line

McGinley invented the Dynamic to act as a market tool rather than as a trading indicator. But whatever it’s used for, whether it is called a tool or indicator, the McGinley Dynamic is quite a fascinating instrument invented by a market technician that has followed and studied markets and indicators for nearly 40 years. In creating the Dynamic, McGinley sought to create a technical aid that would be more responsive to the raw data than simple or exponential moving averages.

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