What Is Autocorrelation?

Autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It’s conceptually similar to the correlation between two different time series, but autocorrelation uses the same time series twice: once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods. 

For example, if it’s rainy today, the data suggests that it’s more likely to rain tomorrow than if it’s clear today. When it comes to investing, a stock might have a strong positive autocorrelation of returns, suggesting that if it’s “up” today, it’s more likely to be up tomorrow, too.

Naturally, autocorrelation can be a useful tool for traders to utilize; particularly for technical analysts.

Understanding Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation can also be referred to as lagged correlation or serial correlation, as it measures the relationship between a variable’s current value and its past values.

As a very simple example, take a look at the five percentage values in the chart below. We are comparing them to the column on the right, which contains the same set of values, just moved up one row.

What Is an Ascending Triangle?

An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside.

Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since price will typically break out in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming.

An ascending triangle is tradable in that it provides a clear entry point, profit target, and stop-loss level. It may be contrasted with a descending triangle.

What Does the Ascending Triangle Tell You?

An ascending triangle is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, meaning that the pattern is significant if it occurs within an uptrend or downtrend. Once the breakout from the triangle occurs, traders tend to aggressively buy or sell the asset depending on which direction the price broke out.

Increasing volume helps to confirm the breakout, as it shows rising interest as the price moves out of the pattern.

A minimum of two swing highs and two swing lows are required to form the ascending triangle’s trendlines. But a greater number of trendline touches tends to produce more reliable trading results. Since the trendlines are converging on one another, if the price continues to move within a triangle for multiple swings, the price action becomes more coiled, likely leading to a stronger eventual breakout.

Volume tends to be stronger during trending periods than during consolidation periods. A triangle is a type of consolidation, and therefore volume tends to contract during an ascending triangle. As mentioned, traders look for volume to increase on a breakout, as this helps confirm the price is likely to keep heading in the breakout direction. If the price breaks out on low volume, that is a warning sign that the breakout lacks strength. This could mean the price will move back into the pattern. This is called a false breakout.

For trading purposes, an entry is typically taken when the price breaks out. Buy if the breakout occurs to the upside, or short/sell if a breakout occurs to the downside. A stop loss is placed just outside the opposite side of the pattern. For example, if a long trade is taken on an upside breakout, a stop loss is placed just below the lower trendline.

A profit target can be estimated based on the height of the triangle added or subtracted from the breakout price. The thickest part of the triangle is used. If the triangle is $5 high, add $5 to the upside breakout point to get the price target. If the price breaks lower, the profit target is the breakout point less $5.

Example of How to Interpret the Ascending Triangle

Here an ascending triangle forms during a downtrend, and the price continues lower following the breakout. Once the breakout occurred, the profit target was attained. The short entry or sell signal occurred when the price broke below the lower trendline. A stop loss could be placed just above the upper trendline.

Wide patterns like this present a higher risk/reward than patterns that get substantially narrower as time goes on. As a pattern narrows, the stop loss becomes smaller since the distance to the breakout point is smaller, yet the profit target is still based on the largest part of the pattern.

The Difference Between an Ascending Triangle and a Descending Triangle

These two types of triangles are both continuation patterns, except they have a different look. The descending triangle has a horizontal lower line, while the upper trendline is descending. This is the opposite of the ascending triangle, which has a rising lower trendline and a horizontal upper trendline.

Limitations of Trading the Ascending Triangle

The main problem with triangles, and chart patterns in general, is the potential for false breakouts. The price may move out of the pattern only to move back into it, or the price may even proceed to break out the other side. A pattern may need to be redrawn several times as the price edges past the trendlines but fails to generate any momentum in the breakout direction.

While ascending triangles provide a profit target, that target is just an estimate. The price may far exceed that target, or fail to reach it.

Psychology of the Ascending Triangle

Like other chart patterns, ascending triangles indicate the psychology of the market participants underlying the price action. In this case, buyers repeatedly drive the price higher until it reaches the horizontal line at the top of the ascending triangle. The horizontal line represents a level of resistance—the point where sellers step in to return the price to lower levels.

As the price drops downward from the horizontal resistance level, buyers begin to show their resolve, and the price fails to reach the recent low, with the trend turning upward once again at a higher swing low. In other words, the upward-sloping trendline that forms the lower boundary of the ascending triangle is acting as support—the level where buyers jump in and prevent the price from falling any lower.

In a well-defined ascending triangle pattern, the price bounces between the horizontal resistance line and the lower trendline. The lines of the triangle eventually converge, setting the stage for a showdown between upward and downward pressure that could determine which direction the price will move out of the pattern. As it approaches the vertex of the triangle, the price will either break out above the resistance level, suggesting additional gains ahead, or it will fall below the support level, increasing the likelihood that the price will decline.

The Bottom Line

An ascending triangle is a technical analysis chart pattern that occurs when the price of an asset fluctuates between a horizontal upper trendline and an upward-sloping lower trendline. Since the price has a tendency to break out in the same direction as the trend in place before the formation of the triangle, ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns. Traders often wait for the price to break above or below the pattern before entering a position. The ascending triangle pattern is particularly useful for traders because it suggests a clear entry point, profit target, and stop-loss level.

What Is an Arbitrageur?

An arbitrageur is a type of investor who attempts to profit from market inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can relate to any aspect of the markets, whether it is price, dividends, or regulation. The most common form of arbitrage is price.

Arbitrageurs exploit price inefficiencies by making simultaneous trades that offset each other to capture risk-free profits. An arbitrageur would, for example, seek out price discrepancies between stocks listed on more than one exchange by buying the undervalued shares on one exchange while short selling the same number of overvalued shares on another exchange, thus capturing risk-free profits as the prices on the two exchanges converge.

In some instances, they also seek to profit by arbitraging private information into profits. For example, a takeover arbitrageur may use information about an impending takeover to buy up a company’s stock and profit from the subsequent price appreciation.

Understanding an Arbitrageur

Arbitrageurs are typically very experienced investors since arbitrage opportunities are difficult to find and require relatively fast trading. They also need to be detail-oriented and comfortable with risk. This is because most arbitrage plays involve a significant amount of risk. They are also bets with regards to the future direction of markets.

Arbitrageurs play an important role in the operation of capital markets, as their efforts in exploiting price inefficiencies keep prices more accurate than they otherwise would be.

Examples of Arbitrageur Plays

As a simple example of what an arbitrageur would do, consider the following.

The stock of Company X is trading at $20 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) while, at the same moment, it is trading for the equivalent of $20.05 on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). A trader can buy the stock on the NYSE and immediately sell the same shares on the LSE, earning a total profit of 5 cents per share, less any trading costs. The trader exploits the arbitrage opportunity until the specialists on the NYSE run out of inventory of Company X’s stock, or until the specialists on the NYSE or LSE adjust their prices to wipe out the opportunity.

An example of an information arbitrageur was Ivan F. Boesky. He was considered a master arbitrageur of takeovers during the 1980s. For example, he minted profits by buying stocks of Gulf oil and Getty oil before their purchases by California Standard and Texaco respectively during that period. He is reported to have made between $50 million to $100 million in each transaction.

The rise of cryptocurrencies offered another opportunity for arbitrageurs. As the price of Bitcoin reached new records, several opportunities to exploit price discrepancies between multiple exchanges operating around the world presented themselves. For example, Bitcoin traded at a premium at cryptocurrency exchanges situated in South Korea as compared to the ones located in the United States. The difference in prices, also known as the Kimchi Premium, was mainly because of the high demand for crypto in these regions. Crypto traders profited by arbitraging the price difference between the two locations in real-time.