Global Update:

July 15th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow falls 142 points as Wall Street weighs more aggressive Fed, disappointing bank earnings

Stocks slipped Thursday as big bank earnings kicked off with disappointing results and traders assessed the possibility of even tighter U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve as recessionary fears lingered.

Dow…….30630 -142.6 -0.46%
Nasdaq.11251 +3.6 +0.03%
S&P 500..3790 -11.4 -0.30%

FTSE…….7040 -116.6 -1.63%
Dax……..12520 -236.7 -1.86%
CAC……..5915 -84.8 -1.41%

Nikkei….26643 +164.6 +0.62%
HSI……..20751 -46.7 -0.22%
Shanghai..3282 -2.6 -0.08%
ST Times..3091 -38.1 -1.22%

IDX…….6690.09 +49.10 +0.74%
LQ45…..948.57 +12.14 +1.30%

IDX Energy…1674.50 +14.13 +0.85%
IDX Bsc Mat.1217.36 -3.77 -0.31%
IDX Industrl..1196.24 +26.72 +2.29%
IDXNONCYC..709.14 +4.49 +0.64%
IDX Hlthcare.1538.80 +8.69 +0.54%
IDXCYCLIC…..862.20 +0.47 +0.05%
IDX Techno….7605.34 +40.52 +0.54%
IDX Transp…1931.27 +1.18 +0.06%
IDX Infrast……955.01 +3.43 +0.36%
IDX Finance 1394.25 -11.63 -0.83%
IDX Property…….660 -2.10 -0.32%

Indo10Yr….7.3804 +0.0480 +0.65%
ICBI……….330.6697 -0.8655 -0.26%
US10Yr…..2.9600 +0.0560 +1.93%
VIX…………26.40 -0.42 -1.57%

USDIndx 108.5440 +0.5870 +0.54%‼️
Como Indx..273.26 -4.68 -1.68%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..139.56 -5.20 -3.59%‼️

IndoCDS…159.08 – -%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……15020.00 +28.50 +0.19%‼️
Jisdor..14999.00 +14.00 +0.09%‼️

Euro………1.0018 -0.0036 -0.36%

TLKM……..26.66 -0.21 -0.78%
(3999)
EIDO………21.48 +0.02 +0.09%
EEM……….38.43 -0.35 -0.90%

Oil………….96.16 +0.06 +0.06%
Gold …….1708.20 -25.40 -1.47%‼️
Timah. .25364.00 -210 -0.82%
( Closed 13/7)
Nickel..19212.00 -1814.00 -8.63%‼️
(Closed 14/7)
Silver…….18.36 -0.79 -4.12%
Copper…..323.50 -7.20 -2.18%

Nturl Gas…..6.665 +0.066 +1.00%

Ammonia….3873.33 +16.66 +0.43%
China
(Domestic Price)(13/7)

Coal price…416.35 -13.65 -3.17%‼️
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…410.75 -18.10 -4.22%‼️
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…392.60 -2.40 -0.61%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…367.00 -11.25 -2.97%‼️
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)…..3544 -218 -5.79%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………601.00 +5.75 +0.97%
SoybeanOil…55.78 -0.93 -1.64%
Wheat……….795.00 -15.75 -1.94%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 14/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Semua index regional merah, kecuali nikkei sama IHSG. Tapi berat buat berharap hari ini IHSG ijo lagi, hampir semua komoditas juga merah, yang ijo oil sama gas

Saham saham contrarian mulai muncul, BBCA BBRI GOTO dipake ganjel index, kalo gerakannya lanjut berarti udahan ABC correctionnya. WNS aja.

Global update:
July 14th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow slides 200 points, stocks dip as inflation hits highest level since 1981

Stocks slipped on Wednesday after June inflation data hit its highest level since 1981, adding to growing fears that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its fight to tame rising prices.

Dow…….30773 -208.5 -0.67%
Nasdaq.11248 -17.2 -0.15%
S&P 500..3802 -17.02 -0.45%

FTSE…….7156 -53.5 -0.74%
Dax……..12756 -149.2 -1.16%
CAC……..6000 -43.96 -0.73%

Nikkei….26479 +142.1 +0.54%
HSI……..20798 -46.8 -0.22%
Shanghai..3284 +2.8 +0.09%
ST Times..3129 -17.1 -0.54%

IDX…….6640.99 -77.30 -1.15%
LQ45…..936.43 -13.06 -1.38%

IDX Energy…1660.38 -17.60 -1.05%
IDX Bsc Mat.1221.13 +0.72 +0.06%
IDX Industrl..1169.52 -3.47 -0.30%
IDXNONCYC..704.65 -2.92 -0.41%
IDX Hlthcare.1530.11 -2.89 -0.19%
IDXCYCLIC…..861.74 -11.44 -1.31%
IDX Techno….7565.83 -136.59 -1.77%
IDX Transp…1930.09 -19.57 -1.00%
IDX Infrast……951.58 -5.49 -0.57%
IDX Finance 1405.88 -10.16 -0.72%
IDX Property…….668 – -%

Indo10Yr….7.3324 -0.0241 -0.33%
ICBI……….331.5352 +0.3765 +0.11%
*US10Yr…..2.9040 -0.0540 -1.83%*
*VIX…………26.82 -0.47 -1.72%*

*USDIndx 107.9570 -0.2120 -0.20%‼️*
Como Indx..277.94 +1.93 +0.70%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..144.75 -0.51 -0.35%

*IndoCDS…159.08 +2.38 +1.52%‼️*
(5-yr INOCD5)

*IDR……14991.50 -3.50 -0.02%‼️*
*Jisdor..14985.00 -8.00 -0.05%‼️*

*Euro………1.0054 +0.0018 +0.18%*

TLKM……..26.87 +0.33 +1.24%
*(4026)*
EIDO………21.46 -0.29 -1.33%
EEM……….38.78 -0.09 -0.23%

*Oil………….96.10 +0.26 +0.27%*
*Gold …….1733.60 +8.80 +0.51%*
*Timah. .25574.00 -689 -2.62%*
*( Closed 12/7)*
*Nickel…21026.50 -271.50 -1.27%*
*(Closed 13/7)*
Silver…….19.15 +0.19 +1.00%
Copper…..330.70 +1.90 +0.58%

*Nturl Gas…..6.598 +0.3640 +5.84%‼️*

Ammonia….3856.67 unch +0%
*China*
(Domestic Price)(12/7)

Coal price…430.00 +4.00 +0.94%
(Jul/Newcastle)
*Coal price…428.85 -9.55 -2.18%*
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…395.00 -2.50 -0.63%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…378.25 -6.15 -1.60%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

*CPO(Sept)…..3762 -371 -8.98%‼️*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………595.25 +8.75 +1.49%
SoybeanOil…56.71 -1.21 -2.09%
Wheat………..810.75 -3.50 -0.43%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 13/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_
.
Inflasi US tertinggi sejak 1981, pasti goyang… Ga lama lagi pasti naikin suku bunga deh. Kalo gini mah siap siap beneran diterusin kebawah ABC correction standar. Diluar energy mending exit kalo ada kesempatan, just to be safe

Kembali ke skenario ini? Mungkin saja, yang jelas kita harus siap kalo itu terjadi

Global Update:

July 13th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow drops more than 100 points, stocks fall ahead of key inflation report

U.S. stocks tumbled on Tuesday as worries over global economic growth dented investor appetite for risk assets and Wall Street braced for June inflation data.

Dow…….30981 -192.5 -0.62%
Nasdaq.11265 -107.9 -0.95%
S&P 500..3819 -35.6 -0.92%

FTSE…….7209 +13.3 +0.18%
Dax……..12906 +73.04 +0.57%
CAC……..6044 +47.9 +0.80%

Nikkei….26337 -475.6 -1.77%
HSI……..20845 -279.5 -1.32%
Shanghai..3281 -32.1 -0.97%
ST Times..3145 +14.5 +0.46%

IDX…….6718.29 -3.85 -0.06%
LQ45…..949.50 -2.70 -0.28%

IDX Energy…1677.98 +25.34 +1.53%
IDX Bsc Mat.1220.40 +13.05 +1.08%
IDX Industrl..1172.98 -2.18 -0.19%
IDXNONCYC..707.57 +0.67 +0.10%
IDX Hlthcare.1533.00 -9.00 -0.58%
IDXCYCLIC…..873.18 -2.89 -0.33%”
IDX Techno….7701.42 -10.37 -0.13%
IDX Transp…1949.66 +33.44 +1.74%
IDX Infrast……957.07 -1.95 -0.20%
IDX Finance 1416.04 +2.53 +0.18%
IDX Property…….670 +1.40 +0.20%

Indo10Yr….7.3565 -0.0127 -0.17%
ICBI……….331.1587 +0.0922 +0.03%
US10Yr…..2.9580 -0.0330 -1.10%
VIX…………27.29 +1.12 +4.28%

USDIndx 108.1690 +0.1480 +0.14%‼️
Como Indx..276.01 -11.77 -4.09%‼️
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..145.27 -3.22 -2.17%

IndoCDS…156.70 +11.72 +8.08%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14995.00 +20.00 +0.13%‼️
Jisdor..14993.00 +16.00 +0.12%‼️

Euro………1.0036 -0.0007 -0.07%

TLKM……..26.54 -0.12 -0.45%
(3979)
EIDO………21.75 +0.08 +0.37%
EEM……….38.87 -0.15 -0.38%

Oil………….95.84 -7.15 -6.94%‼️
Gold …….1724.80 -7.10 -0.41%
Timah. .26263.00 +899 +3.54%
( Closed 11/7)
Nickel…21334.00 -546.00 -2.50%
(Closed 12/7)
Silver…….18.96 -0.11 -0.58%
Copper….328.80 -13.05 -3.82%‼️

Nturl Gas…..6.234 -0.2510 -3.87%‼️

Ammonia .3856.67 -550.00 -12.48%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(11/7)

Coal price…426.00 +7.00 +1.67%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…438.40 +11.60 +2.72%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…397.50 +7.50 +1.92%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…384.40 -2.25 -0.58%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)…..4133 -30 -0.72%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………586.50 -42.50 -6.76%‼️
SoybeanOil…57.92 -3.39 -5.53%‼️
Wheat………..814.25 -42.25 -4.93%‼️

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 12/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Asia merah kecuali singapore, US merah, Europe ijo. Memang seringkali ketika US menyedihkan investor mindahin dana ke europe sih, tapi kalo issue nya global biasanya turun bareng.

Index sudah 2 hari merah tipis, keliatan belum mau dibawa turun, MACD nya makin menunjukkan mau rebound. Masih ada kemungkinan mau tutup gap, jadi keep cash ya, pegang barang cukup energy sama sebagian basic material aja, 30-50% max dari total equity

Dilihat dari regression mungkin langsung lanjut rebound, kita tunggu konfirmasi aja

Global Update:

July 12th, 2022

Good morning,

S&P 500 loses 1%, Nasdaq breaks 5-day win streak ahead of earnings season

U.S. equities fell Monday as Wall Street braced for big company earnings reports slated for later in the week which could signal how inflation is impacting businesses.

Dow…….31174 -164.3 -0.52%
Nasdaq.11373 -262.7 -2.26%
S&P 500..3854 -44.95 -1.15%

FTSE…….7197 +0.4 +0.00%
Dax……..12832 -182.8 -1.40%
CAC……..5996 -36.8 -0.61%

Nikkei….26812 +295.1 +1.11%
HSI……..21124 -601.6 -2.77%
Shanghai..3314 -42.5 -1.27%
ST Times..3131 closed +0%

IDX…….6722.15 -18.07 -0.27%
LQ45…..952.20 -7.48 -0.78%

IDX Energy…1652.63 +3.90 +0.24%
IDX Bsc Mat.1207.35 +5.45 +0.45%
IDX Industrl..1175.16 +7.88 +0.67%
IDXNONCYC..706.89 -3.08 -0.43%
IDX Hlthcare.1542.01 +32.01 +2.12%
IDXCYCLIC…..876.07 +6.60 +0.76%
IDX Techno….7711.79 -71.41 -0.92%
IDX Transp…1916.22 +22.32 +1.18%
IDX Infrast……959.02 -1.06 -0.11%
IDX Finance 1413.52 +0.41 +0.03%
IDX Property…….670 +1.40 +0.20%

Indo10Yr….7.3692 -0.0137 -0.19%
ICBI……….331.0665 -0.0258 -0.01%
US10Yr…..2.9910 -0.1100 -3.55%
VIX…………26.17 +1.53 +6.21%

USDIndx 107.0070 -0.1230 -0.11%‼️
Como Indx..287.75 +2.67 +0.94%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..148.49 -2.28 -1.51%

*IndoCDS…144.98 – – *
(5-yr INOCD5) .

IDR……14975.00 -4.00 -0.03%‼️
Jisdor..14969.00 -12.00 -0.08%‼️

Euro………1.0043 -0.0142 -1.39%

TLKM……..26.66 +0.15 +0.57%
(3990)
EIDO………21.67 -0.15 -0.69%
EEM……….39.02 -1.07 -2.67%

Oil…………102.99 -1.80 -1.72%
Gold …….1731.90 -10.40 -0.60%
Timah. .25364.00 – –
( Closed 08/7)
Nickel…21880.00 +381.00 +1.77%
(Closed 11/7)
Silver…….19.07 -0.17 -0.88%
Copper….341.85 -10.35 -2.93%

Nturl Gas…..6.485 +0.4180 +6.89%‼️

Ammonia ..4406.67 -66.66 -1.49%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(07/7)

Coal price…419.00 +5.25 +1.27%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…426.80 +11.30 +2.72%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…390.00 +1.10 +0.28%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…386.65 +5.55 +1.46%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)…..4163 +23 +0.56%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn………….629.00 +5.50 +0.88%
SoybeanOil…61.31 +0.82 +1.36%
Wheat………856.50 -35.00 -3.93%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 11/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Pada kompak merah kecuali nikkei. Hangseng sama Nasdaq rada dalem turunnya

Nikel Gas Coal CPO lanjut naik, gas naik tinggi. Yang lain pada turun. Minyak turun tapi masih diatas 100 USD / barrel

Kalo liat MACD nya index,keliatannya bener ga akan dibawa tutup gap 6162 dulu, atau mungkin dibawa ngayun sekali naik minimal sideways dulu.

Energy Basic Material Industrial

Finance sama Property gerak tapi mencurigakan, pada buy signal tapi apakah hanya technical rebound? Belum ada insentif untuk property jalan, kredit ga digenjot, bunga bank naik -> KPR tambah mahal dan susah -> jual property lebih susah

AKRA PGAS ADRO ELSA

Yang buy signal FNB dan ada spike ELSA

AKRA big akum FNB dan ada spike, mau dibawa lari ini kayanya

AKRA – kenceng ya, dari bottom wave C index kemaren dia lari terus, kemaren fokus di ELSA sama ADRO jadi ga entry di AKRA, kirain akan jalan bareng ELSA

Udah naik 20%< tunggu koreksi nya aja bikin higher low baru kita ikut di wave 3

PGAS – all good kecuali FNS kecil, semoga nyusul AKRA ke atas bareng ADRO ELSA

ADRO – Hari ini semoga mulai akum besar, udah ada freq spike, begitu MACD cross kita nambah muatan

ELSA – All good, tunggu MACD nambah muatan

ANTM INCO TINS (satu paket yang ini) MDKA BRPT tapi agak berlawanan sama harga minyak ini BRPT

ANTM – MACD buy tambah muatan…

MDKA – ABC correction dah beres, LR siap mantul, stoch macd siap tinggal nunggu MACD firm, bandar sama foreign yang masih buang, tapi ada freq spike. kayanya MACD cross pas bandar akum dan FNB

BRPT – LR nya suram, retracement pattern bilang koreksi dulu setelah deket ke fibo 38, bisa jadi failed divergence juga sih, Stoch 833 oersold dan mulai ngebalik, koreksi dulu keliatannya, kalo lanjut kita entry di 833 buy signal

NKP menarik, BRPT juga dari sisi akumulasi bandar nya menarik sih

Wah ga deh ini belum saatnya industrial…

Belum terlihat buy signal yang firm reversal juga