Posts Tagged ‘Technical’

Industrial ETFs Bouncing Off Key Support

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Despite the overshadow of trade tariffs, industrial stocks remain underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate (35% down to 21%), a push for increased infrastructure spending and a strengthening U.S. housing market. Economic data also shows increased industrial activity. Industrial production, which measures the value of output from manufacturers, mines and utilities, is up 5.1% year over year as of September 2018. The sector should additionally benefit from early investor rotation into value names, robust profit forecasts and increased buyback activity.

Senior analyst at Wolfe Research Nigel Coe told Barron’s that he believes industrial stocks can maintain strong growth momentum while the Federal Reserve’s policy remains loose and supportive of growth. However, he cautioned that companies in the sector need to grow into their earnings multiplesforward earnings currently sit at 16.7 times as of October 2018. Price action also suggests that industrial stocks are at key support levels. Three leading exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the sector have all bounced at critical technical areas on their respective charts. Let’s further analyze each fund.

Launched in 2006, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF seeks to track the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select / Aerospace & Defense Index. The fund invests in companies that manufacture, assemble and distribute airplane and defense equipment. ITA charges investors an annual management fee of 0.43% and has returned 9.3% year to date (YTD) as of October 2018. The recent pullback found support on the uptrend line the connects the early May and late June swing lows. This $200 support level on the chart also finds support from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), making it a high-probability buying area. A stop-loss order could be placed just below the candlestick that reversed on the trendline/moving average.

The Invesco DWA Industrials Momentum ETF, also created in 2006, aims to provide similar returns to the DWA Industrials Technical Leaders Index. The ETF’s portfolio holds U.S. industrial firms that are showing strong relative strength and price momentum. As of October 2018, the fund has a -4.69% YTD return and charges a 0.6% management fee. PRN’s chart appears to be forming a double bottom – the most recent swing low found support near the early May swing low at the $57 level. Short-term momentum looks to be moving back to the upside, with the relative strength index (RSI) crossing back above 30. Stops should be placed slightly below double bottom pattern to protect trading capital.

Formed in 2013, the Fidelity MSCI Industrials ETF attempts to replicate the performance of the MSCI USA IMI Industrials Index. It holds companies that cover the broad U.S. industrials sector. The fund has a low expense ratio of just 0.08%, well below the 0.5% category average. Performance wise, FIDU has returned -1.33% YTD. Although FIDU’s share price is trading below the 200-day SMA, it found strong support from the uptrend line that commenced in early May. The recent bounce at the $37.5 support level has moved the RSI out of oversold territory and occurred on above-average volume. Traders who take a long position should protect it with a stop below the most recent swing low.

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Using Technical Indicators to Develop Trading Strategies

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Indicators, such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands®, are mathematically-based technical analysis tools that traders and investors use to analyze the past and anticipate future price trends and patterns. Where fundamentalists may track economic data, annual reports, or various other measures of corporate profitability, technical traders rely on charts and indicators to help interpret price moves.

The goal when using indicators is to identify trading opportunities. For example, a moving average crossover often signals an upcoming trend change. In this instance, applying the moving average indicator to a price chart allows traders to identify areas where the trend may run out of gas and change direction, which creates a trading opportunity.

Strategies frequently use technical indicators in an objective manner to determine entry, exit, and/or trade management rules. A strategy specifies the exact conditions under which traders are established—called setups—as well as when positions are adjusted and closed. Strategies typically include the detailed use of indicators (often multiple indicators) to establish instances where the trading activity will occur.

While this article does not focus on any specific trading strategy, it serves as an explanation of how indicators and strategies are different (and how they work together) to help technical analysts identify high-probability trading setups.

Key Takeaways

  • Technical indicators are used to see past trends and anticipate future moves.
  • Moving averages, relative strength index, and stochastic oscillators are examples of technical indicators.
  • Trading strategies, including entry, exit, and trade management rules, often use one or more indicators to guide day-to-day decisions.
  • There is no evidence to suggest that one indicator is foolproof or a holy grail for traders.
  • Strategies (and indicators used within those strategies) will vary depending on the investor’s risk tolerance, experience, and objectives.

Indicators

A growing number of technical indicators are available for traders to study, including those in the public domain, such as a moving average or the stochastic oscillator, as well as commercially available proprietary indicators. In addition, many traders develop their own unique indicators, sometimes with the assistance of a qualified programmer. Most indicators have user-defined variables that allow traders to adapt key inputs such as the “look-back period” (how much historical data will be used to form the calculations) to suit their needs.

A moving average, for example, is simply an average of a security’s price over a particular period. The time period is specified in the type of moving average, such as a 50-day or 200-day moving average. The indicator averages the prior 50 or 200 days of price activity, usually using the security’s closing price in its calculation (though other price points, such as the open, high, or low, can also be used). The user defines the length of the moving average as well as the price point that will be used in the calculation.

Strategies

A strategy is a set of objective, absolute rules defining when a trader will take action. Strategies typically include trade filters and triggers, both of which are often based on indicators. Trade filters identify the setup conditions; trade triggers identify exactly when a particular action should be taken. A trade filter, for example, might be a price that has closed above its 200-day moving average. This sets the stage for the trade trigger, which is the actual condition that prompts the trader to act. A trade trigger might occur when the price reaches one tick above the bar that breached the 200-day moving average.

A strategy that is too basic—like buying when price moves above the moving average—is usually not viable because a simple rule can be too evasive and does not provide any definitive details for taking action. Here are examples of some questions that need to be answered to create an objective strategy:

  • What type of moving average will be used, including length and price point used in the calculation?
  • How far above the moving average does the price need to move?
  • Should the trade be entered as soon as the price moves a specified distance above the moving average, at the close of the bar, or at the open of the next bar?
  • What type of order will be used to place the trade? Limit or market?
  • How many contracts or shares will be traded?
  • What are the money management rules?
  • What are the exit rules?

All of these questions must be answered to develop a concise set of rules to form a strategy.

Using Technical Indicators

An indicator is not a trading strategy. While an indicator can help traders identify market conditions, a strategy is a trader’s rule book and traders often use multiple indicators to form a trading strategy. However, different types or categories of indicators—such as one momentum indicator and one trend indicator—are typically recommended when using more than one indicator in a strategy.

Many different categories of technical charting tools exist today, including trend, volume, volatility, and momentum indicators.

Using three different indicators of the same type—momentum, for example—results in the multiple counting of the same information, a statistical term referred to as multicollinearity. Multicollinearity should be avoided since it produces redundant results and can make other variables appear less important. Instead, traders should select indicators from different categories. Frequently, one of the indicators is used to confirm that another indicator is producing an accurate signal.

A moving average strategy, for example, might employ the use of a momentum indicator for confirmation that the trading signal is valid. Relative strength index (RSI), which compares the average price change of advancing periods with the average price change of declining periods, is an example of a momentum indicator.

Like other technical indicators, RSI has user-defined variable inputs, including determining what levels will represent overbought and oversold conditions. RSI, therefore, can be used to confirm any signals that the moving average produces. Opposing signals might indicate that the signal is less reliable and that the trade should be avoided.

Each indicator and indicator combination requires research to determine the most suitable application given the trader’s style and risk tolerance. One advantage of quantifying trading rules into a strategy is that it allows traders to apply the strategy to historical data to evaluate how the strategy would have performed in the past, a process known as backtesting. Of course, finding patterns that existed in the past does not guarantee future results, but it can certainly help in the development of a profitable trading strategy.

Regardless of which indicators are used, a strategy must identify exactly how the readings will be interpreted and precisely what action will be taken. Indicators are tools that traders use to develop strategies; they do not create trading signals on their own. Any ambiguity can lead to trouble (in the form of trading losses).

Choosing Indicators to Develop a Strategy

The type of indicator a trader uses to develop a strategy depends on what type of strategy the individual plans on building. This relates to trading style and risk tolerance. A trader who seeks long-term moves with large profits might focus on a trend-following strategy, and, therefore, utilize a trend-following indicator such as a moving average. A trader interested in small moves with frequent small gains might be more interested in a strategy based on volatility. Again, different types of indicators may be used for confirmation.

Traders do have the option to purchase “black box” trading systems, which are commercially available proprietary strategies. An advantage to purchasing these black box systems is that all of the research and backtesting has theoretically been done for the trader; the disadvantage is that the user is “flying blind” since the methodology is not usually disclosed, and often the user is unable to make any customizations to reflect their trading style.

The Bottom Line

Indicators alone do not make trading signals. Each trader must define the exact method in which the indicators will be used to signal trading opportunities and to develop strategies. Indicators can certainly be used without being incorporated into a strategy; however, technical trading strategies usually include at least one type of indicator.

Many companies offer expensive newsletters, trading systems, or indicators that promise large returns but do not produce the advertised results. Checking reviews and asking for a trial period can help identify the shady operators.

Identifying an absolute set of rules, as with a strategy, allows traders to backtest to determine the viability of a particular strategy. It also helps traders understand the mathematical expectancy of the rules or how the strategy should perform in the future. This is critical to technical traders since it helps to continually evaluate the performance of the strategy and can help determine if and when it is time to close a position.

Traders often talk about a holy grail—the one trading secret that will lead to instant profitability. Unfortunately, there is no perfect strategy that will guarantee success for each investor. Each individual has a unique style, temperament, risk tolerance, and personality. As such, it is up to each trader to learn about the variety of technical analysis tools that are available, research how they perform according to their individual needs, and develop strategies based on the results.

Investopedia does not provide tax, investment, or financial services and advice. The information is presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

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Comparing Simple Moving Average vs. Exponential Moving Average

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Exponential Moving Average vs. Simple Moving Average: An Overview

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA) are similar in that they each measure trends. The two averages are also similar because they are interpreted in the same manner and are both commonly used by technical traders to smooth out price fluctuations.

There are some differences between the two measurements, however. The primary difference between an EMA and an SMA is the sensitivity each one shows to changes in the data used in its calculation.

SMA calculates the average of price data, while EMA gives more weight to current data. The newest price data will impact the moving average more, with older price data having a lesser impact.

More specifically, the exponential moving average gives a higher weighting to recent prices, while the simple moving average assigns equal weighting to all values.

Exponential Moving Average

Since EMAs place a higher weighting on recent data than on older data, they are more reactive to the latest price changes than SMAs are, which makes the results from EMAs more timely and explains why the EMA is the preferred average among many traders.

As shown in the example below, traders with a short-term perspective may not care about which average is used, since the difference between the two averages is usually a matter of mere cents. On the other hand, traders with a longer-term perspective should give more consideration to the average they use because the values can vary by a few dollars, which is enough of a price difference to ultimately prove influential on realized returns, especially when you are trading a large quantity of stock.

As with all technical indicators, there is no one type of average a trader can use to guarantee success.

Simple Moving Average

The SMA is the most common type of average used by technical analysts and is calculated by dividing the sum of a set of prices by the total number of prices found in the series. For example, a seven-period moving average can be calculated by adding the following seven prices together and dividing the result by seven (the result is also known as an arithmetic mean average).

Example
Given the following series of prices:
$10, $11, $12, $16, $17, $19, $20
The SMA calculation would look like this:
$10+$11+$12+$16+$17+$19+$20 = $105
7-period SMA = $105/7 = 15

Moving averages are fundamental to many technical analysis strategies, but successful traders use a combination of techniques. Investopedia’s Technical Analysis Course will show you how to identify patterns, signals, and technical indicators that drive the behavior of stock prices with over five hours of on-demand video, exercises, and interactive content.

Key Takeaways

  • The exponential moving average gives a higher weighting to recent prices.
  • The simple moving average assigns an equal weighting to all values.
  • As with all technical indicators, there is no one type of average a trader can use to guarantee success.

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Definition in Investing and Stock Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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What Is Relative Strength?

Relative strength is a strategy used in momentum investing and in identifying value stocks. It focuses on investing in stocks or other investments that have performed well relative to the market as a whole or to a relevant benchmark. For example, a relative strength investor might select technology companies that have outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index, or stocks that are outperforming the S&P 500 index.

Technical analysts use an indicator known as the relative strength index (RSI) to generate overbought or oversold signals.

Key Takeaways

  • Relative strength is a type of momentum investing used by technical analysts and value investors.
  • It consists of selecting investments that have been outperforming their market or benchmark.
  • Relative strength investors assume that the trend of outperformance will continue. If the trend reverses, their investment will likely perform poorly.

Understanding Relative Strength

While the goal of value investing is to buy low and sell high, the goal of relative strength investing is to buy high and sell even higher. As such, relative strength investors assume that the trends currently displayed by the market will continue for long enough to allow them to realize a positive return. Any sudden reversal to that trend will lead to negative results.

To identify investment candidates, relative strength investors begin by observing a benchmark such as the Nasdaq Composite Index. They will then look to see which companies within that market have outperformed their peers, either by rising more rapidly than their peers or by falling less rapidly than them.

Because relative strength investing assumes that present trends will continue into the future, it is most effective in stable periods with minimal disruption. By contrast, chaotic periods such as the 2007–2008 financial crisis can be dangerous for relative strength investors because they can lead to sharp reversals of investment trends. In those situations, investor psychology can suddenly reverse, with yesterday’s investment darlings suddenly being shunned.

Although momentum investing is often associated with individual stocks, it can also be applied to whole markets or industry sectors using index funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Similarly, investors can make relative strength investments in other asset classes, such as in real estate, using real estate investment trusts (REITs). More exotic instruments, such as commodity futures, options, and other derivative products, can also be used.

Strategies Employing Relative Strength

Relative strength investing can also be used as one component of a larger strategy, such as pairs trading.

Real-World Example of Relative Strength

Harry is a relative strength investor who keeps a close eye on corporate bond prices and the S&P 500. His investment portfolio consists of an S&P 500 index fund and an ETF that tracks the corporate bond market. As a relative strength investor, he periodically increases his allocation toward whichever asset is outperforming at that time. In doing so, he hopes to benefit from the continuing trend of that asset’s outperformance, effectively buying high and selling higher.

In recent months, he has noticed that investors seem to be increasing their portfolio bond allocations at the expense of stocks. This inflow of money into the bond market has been raising bond prices and lowering yields.

Expecting this trend to continue, Harry responds by decreasing his investment in the S&P 500 and increasing his investment in the corporate bond ETF. He hopes to benefit from any ongoing outperformance of bonds relative to stocks.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Short-term and technical traders also look at relative strength. In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100. The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.”

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


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