Technical analysis is a useful tool that allows a trader to anticipate certain market activity before it occurs. These anticipations are drawn from previous chart patterns, probabilities of certain trade setups and a trader’s previous experience. Over time, anticipation can eliminate the need for over-analyzing market direction as well as identifying clear, objective areas of significance. It isn’t as hard as it sounds. Read on to find out how to anticipate the direction of a market trend and follow it through to a profit.

Anticipation vs. Prediction

Technical analysis is often referred to as some sort of black magic used to time the market. However, what many outside of the financial world don’t realize is that traders don’t try to predict the future. Instead, they create strategies that have a high probability of succeeding—situations where a trend or market movement can be anticipated.

Let’s face it: if traders could pick tops and bottoms on a consistent basis, they would be spending more time out in a Ferrari F430 convertible enjoying a nice stretch of highway than they would hunched over their computer screen. Many of you have probably tried picking tops and bottoms in the past and are through with the game. Perhaps you’re already following in the footsteps of many professional traders who attempt to find situations where they can anticipate a move and then take a portion of that move when the setups occur.

The Power of Anticipation

When deciding on whether or not to make a trade, you likely have your own strategies for entering and exiting the market. (If you don’t, you should decide on them before clicking the buy/sell button.) Technical traders use certain tools such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic, or the commodity channel index (CCI), along with recognizable chart patterns that have occurred in the past with a certain measured result.

Experienced traders will probably have a good idea of what the outcome of a trade will be as it plays out. If the trade is going against them as soon as they enter and it doesn’t turn around within the next few bars, odds are that they weren’t correct on their analysis. However, if the trade does go in their favor within the next few bars, then they can begin to look at moving the stops up to lock in gains as the position plays out. (“Bars” are used as a generic term here, as some of you may use candlesticks or line charts for trading.)

The figure below is an example of a trade taken on the British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) currency pair. It uses an exponential moving average (EMA) crossover to determine when to be long and when to be short. The blue line is a 10-period EMA, and the red is a 20-period EMA. When the blue line is over the red, you are long, and vice versa for shorts. In a trending market, this is a powerful setup to take because it allows you to participate in the large move that often follows this signal. The first arrow shows a false signal, while the second shows a very profitable signal.

This is where the power of anticipation comes into play. The active trader typically monitors open positions as they play out to see if any adjustments need to be made. Once you had gone long at the first arrow, within three bars, you would already be down more than 100 pips. By placing your stop at the longer-term trend moving average, you will probably want to be out of that trade anyway, as a potential reversal might be signaled.

On the second arrow, once you were long, it would only take a few days before this trade went in your favor. The trade management comes into play by trailing your stop up to your personal trading style. In this case, you could have used a close under the blue line as your stop, or waited for a close underneath the red line (longer-term moving average). By being active in position management—by following the market with your stops and accepting them when they are hit—you are far more likely to have greater returns in the long run than you would be if you removed the stop right before the market blasted through it.

The above figure illustrates the difference between anticipation and prediction. In this case, we are anticipating that this trade will have a similar result based on the results of previous trades. After all, this pattern was nearly identical to the one that worked before, and all other things remaining equal, it should have a decent enough chance to work in our favor.

So did we make a prediction about what would happen in this case? Absolutely not. If we had, we wouldn’t have put our stop-loss in place at the same time the trade was sent. Unlike anticipation, which uses past results to determine the probability of future ones, making an accurate prediction often involves a combination of luck and conjecture, making the results much less, well, predictable.

Limited Emotion

By monitoring the trade(s) in real-time and adjusting accordingly, we ensure that emotions aren’t able to get the better of us and cause a deviation from the original plan. Our plan originated before the position was taken (and thus had no conflict of interest), so we use this to look back on when the trade is active.

Since we already have a plan that involves no emotion, we are able to do as much as possible to stick to that plan during the heat of battle. Make a point of minimizing emotion, but not completely removing it. You’re only human, after all, and trading like a robot is nearly impossible for most traders, no matter how successful they are. We know what the market will look like if our anticipation both does and does not occur.

Therefore, by using the chart above, you can see where the signals clearly did and did not work as they were happening based on the price action of each bar and its relation to the moving averages. The key is to take ownership of your trades and act based on your trading plan time and time again.

The Bottom Line

Objectivity is essential to trading survival. Technical analysis provides many views of anticipation in a clear and concise manner, but as with everything else in life, it doesn’t provide a guarantee of success. However, by sticking to a trading plan day in and day out, our emotions are minimized and we can greatly increase the probability of making a winning trade. With time and experience, you can learn to anticipate the direction of your trades and improve your chances of achieving better returns.

Whether you consider yourself a technical analyst or not, there are very few investing techniques that do not at least give a nod to the technical side of investing. Some investing styles use nothing but technical analysis, with their practitioners often claiming that they know nothing of stock fundamentals because all they need is in the charts. This segment of investing didn’t sprout from nothing. In this article, we will look at the men that pioneered the field of technical analysis. (See also: Technical Analysis.)

All Things Flow From Dow

Charles Dow occupies a huge place in the history of finance. He founded The Wall Street Journal – the benchmark by which all financial papers are measured – and, more importantly for our purpose, he created the Dow Jones Industrial Index. In doing so, Dow opened the door to technical analysis. Dow recorded the highs and lows of his average daily, weekly and monthly, correlating the patterns with the ebb and flow of the market. He would then write articles, always after the fact, pointing out how certain patterns explained and predicted previous market events.

However, Dow can’t take all – or even a majority of – the credit for the theory bearing his name. Dow Theory would have only acted as a hindsight confirmation of loose principals if it weren’t for William P. Hamilton. (See also: Giants of Finance: Charles Dow.)

First One Into the Water: William P. Hamilton

Dow Theory was a collection of market trends linked heavily to oceanic metaphors. The fundamental, long-term trend of four or more years was the tide of the market – either rising (bullish) or falling (bearish). This was followed by shorter-term waves that lasted between a week and a month. And, lastly, there were the splashes and tiny ripples of choppy water insignificant day-to-day fluctuations.

Hamilton used these measures in addition to a few rules – such as the railroad average and the industrial average confirming each other’s direction – to call bull and bear markets with laudable accuracy. Although he did call the 1929 crash too early (1927, 1928), he made a final appeal on Oct. 21, 1929, three days before the crash and mere weeks before his death at the age of 63.

The Practitioner: Robert Rhea

Robert Rhea took Dow Theory and turned it into a practical indicator for going long or short in the market. He literally wrote the book on the topic: “The Dow Theory” (1932). Rhea was successful at using the theory to call tops and bottoms – and able enough to profit from those calls. Very soon after mastering Dow Theory, Rhea didn’t need to trade on his knowledge. He only had to write it down.

After calling the market bottom in 1932 and a top in 1937, the fortunes made by subscribers to Rhea’s investment letter, Dow Theory Comments, brought in thousands more subscribers. As with Hamilton, however, Rhea’s life as a market prognosticator was short – he died in 1939. (See also: Dow Theory Tutorial.)

The Wizard: Edson Gould

Perhaps the most accurate forecaster with the longest track record, Edson Gould, was still making calls up to 1983 at the age of 81. Gould also made most of his money from writing newsletters rather than investing, selling subscriptions for $500 in 1930. He caught all of the major bull and bear market points, making several eerily accurate predictions, such as the Dow rising 400 points in a 20-year bull market, that the Dow would top 1,040 in 1973 and so on.

Gould used charts, market psychology and indicators including the Senti-Meter – the DJIA divided by the dividends per share of the companies. Gould was so good at his trade that he continued to make accurate calls from beyond the grave. Gould died in 1987, but in 1991, the Dow hit 3,000, as he’d predicted. At the time of his prediction in 1979, the Dow had yet to break 1,000.

[The work of these pioneers formed the foundation for a huge array of technical tools used by traders today to develop profitable trading strategies. To learn more, check out the Technical Analysis course on the Investopedia Academy, which includes interactive content and real-world examples to boost your trading skills.]

The Chartist: John Magee

John Magee wrote the bible of technical analysis, “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” (1948). Magee was one of the first to trade solely on the stock price and its pattern on the historical charts. Magee charted everything: individual stocks, averages, trading volumes – basically anything that could be graphed. He then poured over these charts to identify broad patterns and specific shapes like weak triangles, flags, bodies, shoulders and so on.

Unfortunately for Magee, early on, he was better at looking after his clients than his own portfolio, often selling out in his own portfolio based on gut feelings despite strong hold signals from his charts. From his 40s to his death at 86, however, Magee was one of the most disciplined technical analysts around, refusing to even read a current newspaper lest it interfere with the signals of his charts. (For more, see: Analyzing Chart Patterns.)

The Omissions

There is bound to be some controversy with a list like this. Where is the infamous Jesse Livermore, the trader whose gut calls on price ticks are arguably the first successful technical trades? What about R. N. Elliott? What about WD Gann?

Well, Livermore did little in the area of theorizing and died broke. Elliott tweaked technical analysis with his own hypothesis, but his theories are difficult to test and even harder to trade – involving something of mysticism piled on top of numbers. Similarly, Gann’s lines, while seemingly useful in concept, are so sensitive to error that their practicality is questionable. Both of these men were purported to have made fortunes trading on their theories, but there is no solid record to back that up as there is for Livermore. Certainly no multi-million-dollar estate was left behind by either.

The Bottom Line

Dow, Hamilton, Rhea, Gould and Magee are on the main track of technical analysis, each carrying the theory and practice a little further. There are of course, many branching side paths that, while interesting detours, didn’t advance this main thrust. Every time an investor – fundamental or technical – talks about getting in low or picking entry and exit points, they are paying homage to these men and the techniques for which they laid the foundation. (See also: Introduction to Types of Trading: Technical Traders.)

Most investors evaluate mutual funds using the principles of fundamental rather than technical analysis. Mutual funds tend to be long-term, buy-and-hold investments, and technical analysis is better suited to shorter-term trading.

That said, investors should not overlook the value of some common technical indicators to provide trading insights for almost any kind of investment or financial instrument, including mutual funds. Below are five common technical indicators that can be applied to mutual funds.

1. Trendlines

Most technical analysis starts with trendlines, which are lines that connect multiple price points and extend into the future to identify price trends and areas of support/resistance. For mutual funds, look at a long-term price chart in order to determine its trend.

A trendline can be plotted by drawing a line that connects multiple lows of a mutual fund over time. The fund may have tested this trendline on numerous occasions over the years. If the fund price breaks conclusively through a well-established, long-term trendline, it is a bearish signal. An investor in such a fund should consider selling their fund holdings if this occurs.

Conversely, a breakout above a well-defined trendline may be a bullish signal, indicating the investor should stay in the fund. 

2. Moving Averages

Moving averages are averages of time-series data, such as prices. Investors can use these to identify price trends of a mutual fund. A rising moving average suggests that the fund is in an uptrend, while a declining moving average would indicate that it is in a downtrend.

A second major application arises from the crossover of two moving averages, for example, a short-term, 20-day moving average and a long-term, 200-day moving average.

If the 20-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average, this would be considered a bullish signal for the mutual fund. Conversely, if the 20-day moving average breaks below the 200-day moving average, this would be a bearish signal.

The 200-day moving average is considered a key technical indicator, with breaks above or below that regarded as important trading signals. It is especially suited for mutual fund technical analysis because of its longer-term nature.

3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in order to evaluate whether the mutual fund is overbought or oversold.

An RSI above 70 would suggest that the mutual fund is overbought and its value is overpriced and poised to retreat. An RSI below 30 indicates an oversold state that may trigger a bounce, which may bolster a value investor’s buy decision.

4. Support and Resistance

A support level is formed when a mutual fund trades down to a certain level and then bounces back up. Over time, this level becomes an area of strong support for the mutual fund. Conversely, a resistance area is formed when the fund is unable to break above a certain price level.

The further apart these tests of support and resistance, and the more frequent that the fund trades down or up to the support or resistance level, the more formidable they become. A break of long-term support is very bearish and may signal a substantial downside for the mutual fund. A move above long-term resistance is very bullish and signals significant upside.

5. Chart Formations

There are a number of different chart types used in technical analysis, with the most common being line charts and bar charts.

Advanced users may prefer candlestick charts to point-and-figure charts. Chart formations for a mutual fund can be interpreted like stocks. The head-and-shoulders pattern, for instance, is interpreted as being quite bearish for the fund, while the reverse head-and-shoulders pattern is viewed as a bullish signal.

A chart pattern that is easy to identify and that has a high degree of reliability is the double or triple top or bottom. A double top or triple top is typically formed after a long period and signals an imminent trend reversal; if a mutual fund that has been trending higher is unable to break through this formation, it may be headed lower. Conversely, a fund that has formed a double or triple bottom may be poised to move higher.

The Bottom Line

While mutual funds do not readily lend themselves to technical analysis, investors can apply some common technical indicators to predict mutual fund movements. Technical indicators like trendlines, moving averages, RSIs, and chart formations are widely used in mutual fund analysis as they provide reliable signals that are easy to interpret.