Posts Tagged ‘Technical’

52-Week Range: Overview, Examples, Strategies

Written by admin. Posted in #, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Is the 52-Week Range?

The 52-week range is a data point traditionally reported by printed financial news media, but more modernly included in data feeds from financial information sources online. The data point includes the lowest and highest price at which a stock has traded during the previous 52 weeks.

Investors use this information as a proxy for how much fluctuation and risk they may have to endure over the course of a year should they choose to invest in a given stock. Investors can find a stock’s 52-week range in a stock’s quote summary provided by a broker or financial information website. The visual representation of this data can be observed on a price chart that displays one year’s worth of price data.

Key Takeaways

  • The 52-week range is designated by the highest and lowest published price of a security over the previous year.
  • Analysts use this range to understand volatility.
  • Technical analysts use this range data, combined with trend observations, to get an idea of trading opportunities.

Understanding the 52-Week Range

The 52-week range can be a single data point of two numbers: the highest and lowest price for the previous year. But there is much more to the story than these two numbers alone. Visualizing the data in a chart to show the price action for the entire year can provide a much better context for how these numbers are generated.

Since price movement is not always balanced and rarely symmetrical, it is important for an investor to know which number was more recent, the high or the low. Usually an investor will assume the number closest to the current price is the most recent one, but this is not always the case, and not knowing the correct information can make for costly investment decisions.

Two examples of the 52-week range in the following chart show how useful it might be to compare the high and low prices with the larger picture of the price data over the past year.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


These examples show virtually the same high and low data points for a 52-week range (set 1 marked in blue lines) and a trend that seems to indicate a short-term downward move ahead.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


The overlapping range on the same stock (set 2 marked in red lines) now seems to imply that an upward move may be following at least in the short term. Both of these trends can be seen to play out as expected (though such outcomes are never certain). Technical analysts compare a stock’s current trading price and its recent trend to its 52-week range to get a broad sense of how the stock is performing relative to the past 12 months. They also look to see how much the stock’s price has fluctuated, and whether such fluctuation is likely to continue or even increase.

The information from the high and low data points may indicate the potential future range of the stock and how volatile its price is, but only the trend and relative strength studies can help a trader or analyst understand the context of those two data points. Most financial websites that quote a stock’s share price also quote its 52-week range. Sites like Yahoo Finance, Finviz.com and StockCharts.com allow investors to scan for stocks trading at their 12-month high or low.

Current Price Relative to 52-Week Range

To calculate where a stock is currently trading at in relations to its 52-week high and low, consider the following example:

Suppose over the last year that a stock has traded as high as $100, as low as $50 and is currently trading at $70. This means the stock is trading 30% below its 52-week high (1-(70/100) = 0.30 or 30%) and 40% above its 52-week low ((70/50) – 1 = 0.40 or 40%). These calculations take the difference between the current price and the high or low price over the past 12 months and then convert them to percentages.

52-Week Range Trading Strategies

Investors can use a breakout strategy and buy a stock when it trades above its 52-week range, or open a short position when it trades below it. Aggressive traders could place a stop-limit order slightly above or below the 52-week trade to catch the initial breakout. Price often retraces back to the breakout level before resuming its trend; therefore, traders who want to take a more conservative approach may want to wait for a retracement before entering the market to avoid chasing the breakout.

Volume should be steadily increasing when a stock’s price nears the high or low of its 12-month range to show the issue has enough participation to break out to a new level. Trades could use indicators like the on-balance volume (OBV) to track rising volume. The breakout should ideally trade above or below a psychological number also, such as $50 or $100, to help gain the attention of institutional investors.

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Autocorrelation: What It Is, How It Works, Tests

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Autocorrelation: What It Is, How It Works, Tests

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What Is Autocorrelation?

Autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It’s conceptually similar to the correlation between two different time series, but autocorrelation uses the same time series twice: once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods. 

For example, if it’s rainy today, the data suggests that it’s more likely to rain tomorrow than if it’s clear today. When it comes to investing, a stock might have a strong positive autocorrelation of returns, suggesting that if it’s “up” today, it’s more likely to be up tomorrow, too.

Naturally, autocorrelation can be a useful tool for traders to utilize; particularly for technical analysts.

Key Takeaways

  • Autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals.
  • Autocorrelation measures the relationship between a variable’s current value and its past values.
  • An autocorrelation of +1 represents a perfect positive correlation, while an autocorrelation of -1 represents a perfect negative correlation.
  • Technical analysts can use autocorrelation to measure how much influence past prices for a security have on its future price.

Understanding Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation can also be referred to as lagged correlation or serial correlation, as it measures the relationship between a variable’s current value and its past values.

As a very simple example, take a look at the five percentage values in the chart below. We are comparing them to the column on the right, which contains the same set of values, just moved up one row.

 Day  % Gain or Loss Next Day’s % Gain or Loss
 Monday  10%  5%
 Tuesday  5%  -2%
 Wednesday  -2%  -8%
 Thursday  -8%  -5%
 Friday  -5%  

When calculating autocorrelation, the result can range from -1 to +1.

An autocorrelation of +1 represents a perfect positive correlation (an increase seen in one time series leads to a proportionate increase in the other time series).

On the other hand, an autocorrelation of -1 represents a perfect negative correlation (an increase seen in one time series results in a proportionate decrease in the other time series).

Autocorrelation measures linear relationships. Even if the autocorrelation is minuscule, there can still be a nonlinear relationship between a time series and a lagged version of itself.

Autocorrelation Tests

The most common method of test autocorrelation is the Durbin-Watson test. Without getting too technical, the Durbin-Watson is a statistic that detects autocorrelation from a regression analysis.

The Durbin-Watson always produces a test number range from 0 to 4. Values closer to 0 indicate a greater degree of positive correlation, values closer to 4 indicate a greater degree of negative autocorrelation, while values closer to the middle suggest less autocorrelation.

Correlation vs. Autocorrelation

Correlation measures the relationship between two variables, whereas autocorrelation measures the relationship of a variable with lagged values of itself.

So why is autocorrelation important in financial markets? Simple. Autocorrelation can be applied to thoroughly analyze historical price movements, which investors can then use to predict future price movements. Specifically, autocorrelation can be used to determine if a momentum trading strategy makes sense.

Autocorrelation in Technical Analysis

Autocorrelation can be useful for technical analysis, That’s because technical analysis is most concerned with the trends of, and relationships between, security prices using charting techniques. This is in contrast with fundamental analysis, which focuses instead on a company’s financial health or management.

Technical analysts can use autocorrelation to figure out how much of an impact past prices for a security have on its future price.

Autocorrelation can help determine if there is a momentum factor at play with a given stock. If a stock with a high positive autocorrelation posts two straight days of big gains, for example, it might be reasonable to expect the stock to rise over the next two days, as well.

Example of Autocorrelation

Let’s assume Rain is looking to determine if a stock’s returns in their portfolio exhibit autocorrelation; that is, the stock’s returns relate to its returns in previous trading sessions.

If the returns exhibit autocorrelation, Rain could characterize it as a momentum stock because past returns seem to influence future returns. Rain runs a regression with the prior trading session’s return as the independent variable and the current return as the dependent variable. They find that returns one day prior have a positive autocorrelation of 0.8.

Since 0.8 is close to +1, past returns seem to be a very good positive predictor of future returns for this particular stock.

Therefore, Rain can adjust their portfolio to take advantage of the autocorrelation, or momentum, by continuing to hold their position or accumulating more shares.

What Is the Difference Between Autocorrelation and Multicollinearity?

Autocorrelation is the degree of correlation of a variable’s values over time. Multicollinearity occurs when independent variables are correlated and one can be predicted from the other. An example of autocorrelation includes measuring the weather for a city on June 1 and the weather for the same city on June 5. Multicollinearity measures the correlation of two independent variables, such as a person’s height and weight.

Why Is Autocorrelation Problematic?

Most statistical tests assume the independence of observations. In other words, the occurrence of one tells nothing about the occurrence of the other. Autocorrelation is problematic for most statistical tests because it refers to the lack of independence between values.

What Is Autocorrelation Used for?

Autocorrelation can be used in many disciplines but is often seen in technical analysis. Technical analysts evaluate securities to identify trends and make predictions about their future performance based on those trends.

The Bottom Line

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