Global Update:

September 07th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 100 points lower in post-Labor Day session as interest rates pop

U.S. stocks slumped on Tuesday in a volatile trading session as investors weighed what strong economic data and rising rates mean for the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign.

Dow…….31145 -173.1 -0.55%
Nasdaq.11545 -85.95 -0.74%
S&P 500..3908 -16.1 -0.41%

FTSE…….7300 +13.01 +0.18%
Dax……..12871 +110.7 +0.87%
CAC……..6105 +11.4 +0.19%

Nikkei….27627 +6.9 +0.03%
HSI……..19203 -22.97 -0.12%
Shanghai..3200 +13.4 +0.42%
ST Times..3234 +18.6 +0.58%

IDX…….7233.15 +1.27 +0.02%
LQ45…1027.01 -2.28 -0.22%

IDX Energy..2071.92 +58.63 +2.91%‼️
IDX Bsc Mat.1307.05 +8.99 +0.69%
IDX Industrl..1372.37 +12.28 +0.90%
IDXNONCYC..706.56 -2.67 -0.38%
IDX Hlthcare.1421.82 +6.04 +0.43%
IDXCYCLIC…..880.15 -1.00 -0.11%
IDX Techno..7565.93 +8.45 +0.11%
IDX Transp…1941.80 +14.38 +0.75%
IDX Infrast…..1043.29 -4.78 -0.46%
IDX Finance 1518.24 -6.51 -0.43%
IDX Banking..1164.64 -7.52 -0.64%
IDX Property…709 +10.10 +1.45%

Indo10Yr….7.1847 +0.008 +0.11%
ICBI……..335.9016 -0.0317 -0.01%
US10Yr……3.3400 +0.1470 +4.60%‼️
VIX…………26.91 +0.92 +3.54%

USDIndx 110.2140 +0.3950 +0.33%‼️
Como Indx..282.62 -1.85 -0.65%
M(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..148.35 +1.98 +1.35%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 unch +0%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14885.00 -22.00 -0.15%
Jisdor..14885.00 -35.00 -0.23%

Euro………0.9903 -0.0027 -0.27%

TLKM……..30.30 unch +0%
(4510)
EIDO………24.13 +0.09 +0.37%
EEM………38.30 -0.46 -1.19%

Oil…………..86.84 -1.98 -2.22%
Gold ……..1712.60 -8.60 -0.50%
Timah. .21625.00 +565.00 +2.68%‼️
( Closed 05/9)
Nickel…21580.50 -125.00 -0.06%
(Closed 06/9)
Silver…….17.88 -0.14 -0.78%
Copper….345.45 -0.20 -0.06%

Nturl Gas…..8.066 -0.697 -7.95%‼️

Ammonia..4100.00 +233.33 +6.03%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(05/9)

Coal price….450.25 -7.55 -1.65%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….451.25 -12.50 -2.70%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….439.90 -11.60 -2.57%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….380.00 -12.50 -3.18%‼️
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….381.25 -11.25 -2.87%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….374.70 -10.25 -2.68%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3799 -113 -2.89%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..676.00 +10.25 +1.54%
SoybeanOil…63.28 -2.97 -4.48%‼️
Wheat……..817.00 +6.00 +0.74%

Wood pulp…6740.00 +10 +0.15%
(Closed 06/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Setelah libur US lanjut merah, europe ijo, asia mostly ijo kecuali hangseng

Oil Gas Coal turun, metal2 turun kecuali timah, CPO juga turun… Ini harusnya mendukung mau wave 2, tapi sektor financials masih up, ga sinkron jadinya

MACD nya almost golden cross… Sudah bikin higher high dibanding wave B, tapi masih belum break wave 5 kemaren… Jadi New Record High kalo break itu, euforia nya bakal luar biasa sepertinya

IHSG – candle kemaren rada rada shooting star, walau shadow nya pendek. Tapi tetep sih, candle reversal itu. Stochastic MACD akumulasi PSAR alligator supertrend, ichimoku masih indicate lanjut naik, tapi tetep, saya masih believe ini bakal turun. Too early to make a new record high tanpa ada recovery ekonomi yang jelas

Energy, Finance, Basic Materials, Industrials

Global Update:

September 06th, 2022

Good morning,

US markets on holiday due to Labor Day

Dow…….31318 closed +0%
Nasdaq.11631 closed +0%
S&P 500..3924 closed +0%

FTSE…….7287 +6.2 +0.09%
Dax……..12761 -289.5 -2.22%
CAC……..6093 -74.3 -1.20%

Nikkei….27620 -31.2 -0.11%
HSI……..19226 -226.4 -1.16%
Shanghai..3200 +13.4 +0.42%
ST Times..3215 +9.8 +0.31%

IDX…….7231.88 +54.70 +0.76%
LQ45…1029.30 +9.50 +0.93%

IDX Energy..2013.28 +74.26 +3.83%‼️
IDX Bsc Mat.1298.06 +7.20 +0.56%
IDX Industrl..1360.09 +24.18 +1.81%
IDXNONCYC..709.23 -0.52 -0.07%
IDX Hlthcare.1415.78 -16.67 -1.16%
IDXCYCLIC…..881.16 -1.50 -0.17%
IDX Techno..7557.48 -27.86 -0.37%
IDX Transp…1927.41 -35.37 -1.80%
IDX Infrast…..1048.07 +3.66 +0.35%
IDX Finance 1524.75 +5.16 +0.34%
IDX Banking..1172.16 +12.19 +1.05%
IDX Property…704 +4.00 +0.56%

Indo10Yr….7.1767 +0.0120 +0.17%
ICBI……..335.9333 -0.3614 -0.11%
US10Yr……3.1930 closed +0%
VIX…………25.99 closed +0%

USDIndx 109.8190 +0.2850 +0.26%‼️
Como Indx..284.47 -0.15 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..146.38 closed +0%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 +2.31 +1.92%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14907.00 +11.50 +0.08%‼️
Jisdor..14920.00 +20.00 +0.13%‼️

Euro………0.9930 -0.0024 -0.24%

TLKM……..30.30 closed +0%
(4521)
EIDO………24.04 closed +0%
EEM………38.76 closed +0%

Oil…………..88.82 +1.95 +2.24%
Gold ……..1721.20 -14.00 -0.08%
Timah. .21060.00 +95.00 +0.45%
( Closed 02/9)
Nickel…21593.00 +1119.00 +5.47%‼️
(Closed 05/9)
Silver…….18.02 +0.14 +0.78%
Copper….345.85 +4.50 +1.32%

Nturl Gas…..8.763 -0.139 -1.56%

Ammonia….3866.67 – –
China
(Domestic Price)(01/9)

Coal price….457.80 +22.80 +5.24%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….463.75 +22.85 +5.18%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….451.50 +20.95 +4.87%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….392.50 +16.50 +4.39%‼️
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….392.50 +24.15 +6.56%‼️
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….385.00 +23.40 +6.47%‼️
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3912 +11 +0.28%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..665.75 closed +0%
SoybeanOil…66.25 closed +0%
Wheat……..811.00 closed +0%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 05/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US tutup, eropa merah, asia varied, IHSG bikin higher high, apakah akah lanjut wave 1 nya diperpanjang ke atas? Kita tunggu saja… Sementara sih secara keilmuan baru menggeser titik puncak wave 1 sedikit, belum tentu akan long run

Commodity yang merah cuma gold sama natural gas, yang lain semua ijo, coal naik lagi tinggi, nikel juga naik tinggi

Untuk lanjut break high dan bikin new All Time High kayanya kemungkinan kecil sekali, sekarang belum bisa dikatakan ekonomi pulih, masih kondisi krisis, walau memang LK hampir semua emiten meningkat dibanding masa covid sedang merajalela. Masih menduga bahwa akan mentok sebelum mencapai record high dan akan bikin wave 2

IHSG – di banyak indicator bilang bagus dan akan lanjut, foreign juga netbuy terus, bandar akum terus, MFI naik… Tapi fundamentally rapuh, jadi prepare aja kalo market tiba2 ngebalik. Jangan masuk full cash dulu, masuknya hanya di energy sama finance kalo mau, dan pantau ketat, pasang stop loss/trailing stop.

Energy, Financials, Basic Materials, cocok sama kenaikan commodities. Industrials sama Infrastructure juga ada gerakan bagus, tapi belum dulu deh

Healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals sudah cape, ga jadi lari, keliatannya duit market maker masuk ke financials dulu

Global Update:

September 05th, 2022

Good morning,

Major stock averages slide for third week, Nasdaq posts six-day losing streak

U.S. equities fell on Friday to cap their third straight weekly decline, after a solid August jobs report failed to ease fears that the Federal Reserve would keep aggressively hiking interest rates to fight inflation.

Dow…….31318 -337.98 -1.07%
Nasdaq.11631 -154.3 -1.31%
S&P 500..3924 -42.6 -1.07%

FTSE…….7281 +132.7 +1.86%
Dax……..13050 +420.04 +3.33%
CAC……..6168 +133.2 +2.21%

Nikkei….27651 -10.6 -0.04%
HSI……..19452 -145.2 -0.74%
Shanghai..3187 +1.5 +0.05%
ST Times..3206 -18.4 -0.57%

IDX…….7177.18 +24.08 +0.34%
LQ45…1019.79 +2.86 +0.28%

IDX Energy…1939.02 +23.15 +1.21%
IDX Bsc Mat.1290.86 +11.47 +0.90%
IDX Industrl..1335.91 +10.83 +0.82%
IDXNONCYC..709.76 -1.41 -0.20%
IDX Hlthcare.1432.45 +9.90 +0.70%
IDXCYCLIC…..882.66 +0.87 +0.10%
IDX Techno..7585.34 -102.53 -1.33%
IDX Transp…1962.78 +2.34 +0.12%
IDX Infrast…..1044.42 -0.16 -0.02%
IDX Finance 1519.59 +7.26 +0.48%
IDX Banking..1159.98 +7.03 +0.61%
IDX Property…704 +4.00 +0.56%

Indo10Yr….7.1647 +0.0107 +0.15%
ICBI……..336.1665 -0.1329 -0.04%
US10Yr……3.1930 -0.0720 -2.21%
VIX……….25.47 -0.09 -0.35%

USDIndx 109.5340 -0.1570 -0.14%‼
Como Indx..284.62 -5.79 -1.99%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..146.38 -0.82 -0.56%
.
IndoCDS…120.57 +4.15 +3.56%‼
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14895.00 +13.00 +0.09%
Jisdor..14900.00 +16.00 +0.11%

Euro………0.9954 +0.0006 +0.08%

TLKM……..30.30 +0.18 +0.60%
(4515)
EIDO………24.04 +0.07 +0.29%
EEM………39.12 -0.31 -0.79%

Oil…………..86.87 +0.30 +0.35%
Gold ……..1722.60 +16.10 +0.94%
Timah. .21060.00 +95.00 +0.45%
( Closed 02/9)
Nickel….20474.00 +185.50 +0.91%
(Closed 02/9)
Silver…….17.88 +0.24 +1.36%
Copper….341.35 -0.10 -0.03%

Nturl Gas…..8.902 -0.265 -2.89%

Ammonia….3866.67 +66.67 +1.75%
China
(Domestic Price)(01/9)

Coal price….435.00 +7.65 +1.79%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….440.90 +7.20 +1.66%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….430.55 +7.85 +1.86%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….376.00 +5.75 +1.55%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….368.35 +5.35 +1.47%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….361.60 +5.85 +1.64%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3901 -89 -2.23%‼
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..665.75 +7.75 +1.18%
SoybeanOil…66.25 +2.66 +4.18%‼
Wheat……..811.00 +16.75 +2.11%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 04/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US closing jum’at merah, europe ijo, asia merah kecuali shanghai dan Indonesia

Ini, plus issue kenaikan BBM, makin menguatkan itungan technical untuk turun wave 2

Oil dan metal2 mostly naik, gas cpo turun, coal lanjut naik. Mendekati winter dan ada crisis energy dunia, bisa jadi long run ini coal. Technically harusnya ada koreksi dulu sebelum nanti hike lagi di winter sih, tapi kita pantau aja perkembangannya

Masih skenario ini yang paling make sense… tutup gap 6740 dulu

IHSG – Walau stoch jadi buy, MFI naik, bandar akum, foreign entry terus, candle diatas EMA 20 dan 50, tapi kata elliot wave theory harusnya turun wave 2, kenaikan BBM bisa jadi issue yang nganter kesana. Market discounts everything

Financials, Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclicals… Industrials sama Infrastructure mungkin next, after the storm

Global Update:

September 02nd, 2022

Good morning,

Dow, S&P 500 close higher to snap four-day losing streak and begin September

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 ended the first day of September on a high note as traders looked forward to the jobs report Friday.

Dow…….31656 +145.99 +0.46%
Nasdaq.11785 -31.1 -0.26%
S&P 500..3967 +11.9 +0.30%

FTSE…….7149 -135.7 -1.86%
Dax……..12630 -204.7 -1.60%
CAC……..6034 -90.8 -1.48%

Nikkei….27662 -430.0 -1.53%
HSI……..19597 -357.1 -1.79%
Shanghai..3185 -17.2 -0.54%
ST Times..3224 +2.4 +0.07%

IDX…….7153.10 -25.49 -0.36%
LQ45…1016.93 -5.89 -0.58%

IDX Energy…1915.88 +16.38 +0.86%
IDX Bsc Mat.1279.39 -19.09 -1.47%
IDX Industrl..1325.08 +1.93 +0.15%
IDXNONCYC..711.17 +3.55 +0.50%
IDX Hlthcare.1422.55 -14.17 -0.99%
IDXCYCLIC…..881.78 -5.80 -0.65%
IDX Techno..7688.87 -128.7 -1.65%
IDX Transp…1970.44 -9.96 -0.51%
IDX Infrast…..1044.58 +1.46 +0.14%
IDX Finance 1512.32 -3.58 -0.24%
IDX Banking..1152.95 +1.93 +0.17%
IDX Property…701 -0.20 -0.03%

Indo10Yr….7.1540 +0.0042 +0.06%
ICBI……..336.2994 -0.0974 -0.03%
US10Yr……3.2650 +0.1320 +4.21%‼️
VIX……….25.56 -0.31 -1.20%

USDIndx 109.6910 +1.0050 +0.92%‼️
Como Indx..284.62 -5.79 -1.99%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..147.20 -6.23 -4.06%‼️
.
IndoCDS…116.42 – %
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14882.50 +40.00 +0.27%
Jisdor..14884.00 +31.00 +0.21%

Euro………0.9946 -0.0108 -1.07%‼️

TLKM……..30.12 +0.05 +0.17%
(4483)
EIDO………23.97 +0.21 +0.88%
EEM………39.12 -0.31 -0.79%

Oil…………..86.57 -2.22 -2.50%‼️
Gold ……..1706.50 -16.00 -0.93%‼️
Timah. .22793.00 -859.00 -3.63%‼️
( Closed 31/8)
Nickel….20474.00 -954.00 -4.45%‼️
(Closed 01/9)
Silver…….17.64 -0.22 -1.23%
Copper….341.45 -10.00 -2.85%

Nturl Gas…..9.167 +0.040 +0.44%

Ammonia….3800.00 +16.67 +0.44%
China
(Domestic Price)(30/8)

Coal price….427.35 +7.35 +1.75%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….433.70 +18.20 +4.38%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….433.70 +16.95 +4.18%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….370.25 +3.25 +0.89%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….363.00 +5.00 +1.40%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….355.75 +6.00 +1.72%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3990 -143 -3.46%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..658.00 -12.50 -1.86%
SoybeanOil…63.59 -3.89 -5.76%‼️
Wheat……..794.25 -37.25 -4.48%‼️

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 01/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

DJI finally ijo, walau nasdaq merah tipis. Europe asia merah kecuali singapore.

Komoditi hampir semua turun kecuali gas dan coal. Masih memperpanjang kondisi enery ganjel index. Walau udah naik tinggi dan ada resiko koreksi

IHSG – Hampir semua indicator masih bilang index mau turun dulu, cuma PSAR yang up, sama supertrend sih, tapi supertrend basic nya pake ATR, kalo belum confirmed turun belum ngebalik dia. Ternyata tapi opening naik, ikut DJI

Masih Energy, Healthcare, terus Finance. Consumer Non-Cyclicals mulai turun, Consumer Cyclicals masih naik terus RSI nya, padahal banyak saham didalamnya lagi dibanting, tapi kita assess detail deh satu satu