Posts Tagged ‘stocks’

Daily Analysis 20230427

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 27th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow, S&P 500 close lower Wednesday as First Republic woes eclipse Big Tech earnings

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
lost more than 200 points as investors’ worries over First Republic overshadowed their excitement around Big Tech earnings.

Dow……33302 -228.96 -0.68%
Nasdaq11854 +55.2 +0.47%
S&P 500.4055 -15.6 -0.38%

FTSE…..7853 -38.5 -0.49%
Dax……15796 -76.4 -0.48%
CAC……7467 -64.95 -0.86%

Nikkei…..28416 -203.6 -0.71%
HSI………19757 +139.4 +0.71%
Shanghai.3264 -0.8 -0.02%

IDX…..6910.15 +88.34 +1.29%
LQ45….963.21 +14.87 +1.57%
IDX30…502.17 +8.08 +1.64%

IDXEnergy…2097.25 +30.69 +1.49%
IDX BscMat 1163.77 +5.61 +0.48%
IDX Indstrl…1227.68 +20.28 +1.68%
IDXNONCYC.715.67 +8.65 +1.22%
IDX Hlthcare1531.12+15.21 +1.00%
IDXCYCLIC…..810.00 +0.69 +0.09%
IDX Techno..4831.13 -9.64 -0.20%
IDX Transp..1777.92 +46.15 +2.66%
IDX Infrast…..818.64 +10.28 +1.27%
IDX Finance.1390.61 +0.81 +0.06%
IDX Banking.1158.39 +6.52. +0.57%
IDX Property…692 +8.00 +1.18%

Indo10Yr.6.7162 -0.0427 -0.63%đź‘Ť
ICBI….356.6914 +1.1217 +0.32%đź‘Ť
US2Yr.3.9480 +0.0008 +0.02%
US5Yr 3.4941 +0.0467 +1.35%
US10Yr3.4450+0.0450 +1.32%
US30Yr.3.7050+0.0490 +1.34%
VIX…… 18.84 +0.08 +0.43%

USDIndx101.4670 -0.3960 -0.39%
Como Indx.264.94 -3.84 -1.43%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…152.19 +0.52 +0.35%

IndoCDS..95.070 +0.010 +0.01%
(5-yr INOCD5) (25/04)

IDR…..14836.00 -103.00 -0.69%đź‘Ť
Jisdor.14882.00 +27.00 +0.18%

Euro……1.1040 +0.0062 +0.56%

TLKM..29.16 +0.75 +2.64%
(4340)
EIDO…24.26 +0.54 +2.28%
EEM……38.41 +0.22 +0.58%

Oil……74.31 -2.93 -3.79%‼
Gold.1999.90 -8.00 -0.40%
Timah..25584.00 -1062.00 -3.99%‼
(Closed 25/04)
Nickel..23658.50 +398.00 +1.71%
(Closed 26/04)
Silver……25.18 -0.10 -0.40%
Copper…385.70 -1.65 -0.43%

Nturl Gas.2.311 -0.0075 -3.14%‼

Ammonia 3050.00‼ unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(25/04)

Coal price.190.15 +1.10 +0.58%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.190.00 +3.15 +1.69%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.193.00 +1.25 +0.65%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.196.10 +0.50 +0.26%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.140.15 +0.15 +0.11%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.134.90 -3.10 -2.25%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.00 -2.75 -2.05%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 129.90 -2.50 -1.88%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jul)…3571 -67 -1.84%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..601.00 -6.75 -1.11%
SoybeanOil52.50 +0.36 +0.69%
Wheat…..642.00 -11.00 -1.68%

Wood pulp..4110.00‼ -50.00 -1.20%
(Closed 26/04)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

DJI merah Nasdaq ijo, Europe merah, Asia varied, IHSG sama Hangseng jalan. Hari ini koreksi sehat dulu keliatannya

oil gas merah, coal ijo, metal2 merah semua kecuali nikel, pas buat INCO. CPO masih merah lagi

IHSG – kemaren opening jump, tutup gap, closing lebih tinggi, candle long lower shadow, harusnya lanjut sih. Stoch up, MACDup, MFI flat, w% uptrend, BD FF acc, breakout resistance fibo 38, dikit lagi double bottom nya firm. Semoga lanjut rally nya

Industrials, Infrastructure

Stochastic Buy Signal banyak banget, kita liat yang sambil big accum: INCO JPFA APIC SMDR

MACD Buy Signal: CPIN PTBA AVIA LSIP

Alligator Buy Signal: BTPS

Supertrend Buy Signal: INDF ASSA HEAL PTPP SMDR

INCO – stoch buy macd up MFI down w% sw, BD FF acc, udah bikin higher low, posisi di modus volume profile, Elliot wave besarnya masih perkiraan wave 3, walau koreksi jauh tapi ga break bottom wave 2, bisa buy ini

Belum ada spike baru

Harga masih aman

JPFA – Abis drop jauh, sabar tunggu higher low

APIC – wah, saham hajatan, ga berani ah volatile banget gini ngejarnya

Udah tinggal ditunggu guyurannya ini sih

SMDR – stoch buy, macd up, MFI sw, w% uptrend, abis gorengan, koreksi udah sampe fibo 61, ok buat mantul, bikin double bottom, breakout resistance, menarik, kita check spike

Udah ada spike, tapi belum terlalu significant

harga sih aman, tinggal idealnya tunggu spike yang significant kita baru ikut entry

CPIN – sabar tunggu higher low

PTBA – stoch almost buy, macd buy, MFI up, w% uptrend, FF acc BD dist, mencurigakan… itungan proyeksi Elliot wave udah beres wave 5, dan ketemu reg bear div, jangan dulu deh… Buat new entry ga berani

LSIP – masuk saham value investing, stoch buy MACD buy MFI down w% sw, BD FF ngebalik buy, double bottom setelah bikin higher low, ok sih buat BOW setengah candle kemaren, soale pas CPO price juga turun.

Belum ada spike baru

Harga sih aman banget… BOW setengah botol dulu

BTPS – stoch rev down, MACD still up, 833 sell MFI sw w% sw, BD FF dist, udah bikin higher low sih, tapi skip dulu, belum waktunya

INDF – stoch buy macd up,MFI flat, w%uptrend, BD dist, FF acc, baru breakout resistance / neckline CNH, ketemu reg bear RSI, bisa BOW sih ini, stoploss kalo breakdown neckline lagi

Belum ah, ada reg bear ga ada spike bd dist… skip dulu

ASSA – stoch sell macd up 833buy.BD acc FF acc tipis, MFI down, w% uptrend, telat sih entry nya harusnya di MACD kemaren, walau sekarang ikut 833 bisa jadi ok continuation

Belum spike significant lagi

HEAL – stoch overbought, MACD up, MFI up BD FF acc, w% up, deket fibo 38, sabar tunggu bikin higher low di fibo 23

Spike lumayan

 

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Debunking 8 Myths About Technical Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Some traders and investors denounce technical analysis (TA) as a superficial study of charts and patterns without any concrete, conclusive or profitable results. Others believe it is a sort of Holy Grail that once mastered will unleash sizable profits. These opposing viewpoints have led to misconceptions about technical analysis and how it is used.  

Technical analysis tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities. Contrary to fundamental analysis, technical analysts do not necessarily care much about the companies behind the stocks they trade or their profitability.

Some misconceptions about technical analysis are based on education and training. For example, a trader trained in using only fundamentals may not trust technical analysis at all. But that doesn’t mean someone who is trained in technical analysis can’t use it profitably.

Other TA assumptions are based on bad experiences. For example, the incorrect use of technical indicators often leads to losses. That doesn’t mean the method is necessarily wrong; possibly the person just needs more practice and training. The negative sentiment can be perpetuated by unscrupulous marketing, promising overnight riches if a simple TA indicator is bought and used. It rarely is that easy.

Here are eight common technical analysis myths—and why they simply aren’t true. 

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analysis (TA) tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities.
  • Many opponents of TA subscribe to myths about the strategy.
  • Common myths about TA include it being only for day trading and only used by individual traders.
  • Other myths include the idea that TA is quick and easy, with all decisions made by software.
  • Some erroneously expect TA to make precise price predictions and be equally appropriate across all financial markets.

1. Technical Analysis Is Only for Short-Term Trading or Day Trading

It is a common myth that technical analysis is only appropriate for short-term and computer-driven trading like day trading and high-frequency trades. Technical analysis existed and was practiced before computers were common, and some of the pioneers in technical analysis were long-term investors and traders, not day traders. Technical analysis is used by traders on all time frames, from one-minute charts to weekly and monthly charts.

2. Only Individual Traders Use Technical Analysis 

While individuals do use technical analysis, hedge funds and investment banks make ample use of technical analysis as well. Investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis. High-frequency trading, which encompasses a significant amount of the trading volume on the stock exchanges, is heavily dependent on technical concepts. 

3. Technical Analysis Has a Low Success Rate

A look at the list of successful market traders, who have decades of trading experience, debunks this myth. Successful trader interviews have cited significant numbers of traders who owe their success to technical analysis and patterns. For example, Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders (Wiley, 2012) by Jack D. Schwager features interviews with many professionals who’ve profited solely by using technical analysis.

4. Technical Analysis Is Quick and Easy 

The internet is full of technical analysis courses that promise trading success. Though many individuals enter the trading world by placing their first trade based on simple technical indicators, continued success in trading requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline. It requires dedicated time, knowledge, and attention. Technical analysis is only a tool, only one piece of the puzzle.

5. Ready-Made Technical Analysis Software Can Help Traders Make Easy Money 

Unfortunately, this is not true. There are many online ads for cheap and costly software that claims to do all your analysis for you. In addition, less-experienced traders sometimes confuse technical analysis tools in broker-provided trading software for trading models that will guarantee profit. Though technical analysis software provides insights about trends and patterns, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee profits. It’s up to the trader to correctly interpret trends and data.

6. Technical Indicators Can Be Applied Across All Markets

While technical analysis can be applied to many markets, specific asset classes have specific requirements. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and bonds all have differences. There may be time-dependent patterns like high volatility in futures and options nearing expiry, or seasonal patterns in commodities. Don’t make the mistake of applying technical indicators intended for one asset class to another.

7. Technical Analysis Can Provide Precise Price Predictions 

Many novices expect recommendations from technical analysts or software patterns to be 100% precise. For example, inexperienced traders may expect a prediction as specific as, “stock ABC will reach $62 in two months.” However, experienced technical analysts usually avoid quoting prices so specifically. Rather they tend to quote a range such as, “stock A could move in the range of $59 to $64 in the next two to three months.”

Traders betting their money on technical recommendations should be aware that technical analysis provides a predictive range, not an exact number. Technical analysis is also about probability and likelihoods, not guarantees. If something works more often than not, even though it doesn’t work all the time, it can still be very effective at generating profits.

8. The Winning Rate in Technical Analysis Should Be Higher

It’s a common myth that a high percentage of winning trades is needed for profitability. However, that is not always the case. Assume Peter makes four winning trades out of five, while Molly makes one winning trade out of five. Who is more successful? Most people would say Peter, but we don’t actually know until we get more information. Profitability is a combination of win rate and risk/reward. If Peter makes $20 on his winners but is down $80 from his one loss, he ends up with $0. If Molly makes $50 on her win and losses $10 on her losses, she walks away with $10. She is better off, even with fewer wins. Proper trade structuring allows for profitability even with few winners

The Bottom Line

Technical analysis provides a large basket of tools and concepts for trading. There are successful traders who don’t use it, and there are successful traders who do. Some believe technical analysis is the best way to trade, while others claim it is misguided and lacks a theoretical basis.

Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn’t guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.

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Daily Analysis 2023041

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 14th, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks close higher Thursday, S&P 500 notches highest close since February

Stocks jumped Thursday as traders cheered another report pointing to cooling U.S. inflation.

Dow……34030 +383.2 +1.14%
Nasdaq12166 +236.9 +1.99%
S&P 500.4146 +54.3 +1.33%

FTSE…..7844 +18.5 +0.24%
Dax……15730 +25.9 +0.16%
CAC……7481 +83.9 +1.13%

Nikkei…..28157 +74.3 +0.26%
HSI………20345 +34.6 +0.17%
Shanghai.3318 -8.8 -0.27%

IDX…..6785.96 -13.37 -0.20%
LQ45….943.89 +0.71 +0.08%
IDX30…491.87 +0.41 +0.08%

IDXEnergy…2044.21 -8.07 -0.39%
IDX BscMat 1153.16 -5.50 -0.47%
IDX Indstrl…1204.59 +0.45 +0.04%
IDXNONCYC.711.08 -1.86 -0.26%
IDX Hlthcare1507.83 +2.40 +0.16%
IDXCYCLIC…..811.94 +1.37 +0.17%
IDX Techno..4836.40 +18.64 +0.39%
IDX Transp..1774.52 -4.49 -0.25%
IDX Infrast…..806.17 +2.72 +0.34%
IDX Finance.1389.03 -2.41 -0.17%
IDX Banking.1147.02 +1.28 +0.11%
IDX Property…694 -2.0 -0.28%

Indo10Yr.6.7472đź‘Ť-0.0201 -0.30%
ICBI….355.1899đź‘Ť+0.3559+0.10%
US2Yr.3.9683 +0.0001 +0.002%
US5Yr 3.5003 +0.0344 +0.99%
US10Yr3.4490 +0.0490 +1.44%
US30Yr.3.6860+0.0510 +1.40%
VIX…… 17.80 -1.29 -6.76%đź‘Ť

USDIndx101.0160 -0.4840 -0.48%đź‘Ť
Como Indx.275.59 -0.14 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…158.52 +2.00 +1.28%

IndoCDS..90.130 -1.9800 -2.15%đź‘Ť
(5-yr INOCD5) (12/04)

IDR…..14745.50 -134.50 -0.90%đź‘Ť
Jisdor.14792.00 -74.00 -0.50%đź‘Ť

Euro……1.1047đź‘Ť +0.0053 +0.48%

TLKM….29.57 +0.67 +2.32%
(4374)
EIDO……24.24 +0.44 +1.85%
EEM……39.93 +0.54 +1.37%

Oil……83.26 +1.73 +2.12%
Gold.2055.30 +30.40 +1.50%đź‘Ť
Timah..24022.00 +289.00 +1.22%
(Closed 12/04)
Nickel..23698.50 +133.50 +0.57%
(Closed 13/04)
Silver……25.93 +0.47 +1.83%
Copper…412.40 +4.30 +1.05%

Nturl Gas.2.013 -0.071 -3.41%

Ammonia 3633.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(10/04)

Coal price.190.75 -3.85 -1.98%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.190.25 -12.15 -6.00%‼️
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.195.4 -10.45 -5.08%‼️
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.195.50 -10.55 -5.12%‼️
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.134.40 +0.60 +0.45%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.125.55 -1.40 -1.10%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 122.95 -2.40 -1.91%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 123.35 -2.40 -1.91%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3715 -60 -1.59%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..625.50 -2.25 -0.36%
SoybeanOil53.83 -0.33 -0.61%
Wheat…..676.00 -11.00 -1.60%

Wood pulp..4690.00 -50.00 -1.05%
(Closed 13/04)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US rebound setelah laporan inflasi yang melandai, europe ijo, asia varied. IHSG harusnya ijo hari ini

USD index turun lagi, commodities naik lagi, oil up gas down, coal dow, all metals up, cpo down. ANTM MDKA INCO TINS let’s go

IHSG – stoch down macd up 833 buy, BD flat, FF acc, MFI down w% down, ada apa ini bandar lokal nahan nahan index… mau serok dulu kali… retracement patternya udah pas 38-23-61, semoga rally ga lama lagi

Gold closing kemaren breakout minor resistance, semoga swing rada panjang test ATH

Property, Industrials, Infrastructure, Financials

Property LK keluar laba 2022 pada naik, SMRA naik paling tinggi

Stochastic Buy Signal: BBTN BTPS CTRA MAPI MNCN MYOR PTPP RMKE WSKT ANJT

MACD Buy Signal: BUKA BABP BMTR HEAL

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Daily Analysis 20230413

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 13th, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks ended Wednesday’s regular trading session on a down note. The S&P 500
closed 0.41% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite
dropped 0.85%. The Dow snapped a four-day winning streak, ending the day down 38.29 points, or 0.11%.

At the first, the major averages were earlier in the session following the release of March’s consumer price index report, which showed headline pressures slowed last month. The CPI advanced 0.1% month over month in March, and 5% from the prior year.

Traders’ sentiment turned in the afternoon after the release of minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In particular, the Fed expects the recent banking crisis to cause a recession later this year.

Dow……33647 -38.3 -0.11%
Nasdaq11929 -102.5 -0.85%
S&P 500.4092 -16.99 -0.41%

FTSE…..7825 +39.1 +0.50%
Dax……15704 +48.4 +0.31%
CAC……7397 +6.7 +0.09%

Nikkei…..28083 +159.3 +0.57%
HSI………20310 -175.4 -0.86%
Shanghai.3327 +13.6 +0.41%

IDX…..6798.96 -12.35 -0.18%
LQ45….943.18 +1.40 +0.15%
IDX30…491.46 +0.62 +0.13%

IDXEnergy…2052.28 -33.74 -1.62%
IDX BscMat 1158.66 -3.28 -0.28%
IDX Indstrl…1204.13 +11.57 +0.97%
IDXNONCYC.712.94 -3.69 -0.51%
IDX Hlthcare1505.43 -8.02 -0.53%
IDXCYCLIC…..810.57 -1.42 -0.18%
IDX Techno..4817.76 -71.02 -1.45%
IDX Transp..1779.01 +6.01 +0.34%
IDX Infrast…..803.45 +0.94 +0.12%
IDX Finance.1391.44 +2.65 +0.19%
IDX Banking.1145.74 +4.32 +0.38%
IDX Property…694 -2.0 -0.28%

Indo10Yr.6.7472+0.0047+0.07%
ICBI….354.8340+0.0088+0.00%
US2Yr.3.9682 -0.0647 -1.60%
US5Yr 3.4659 -0.0690 -1.95%
US10Yr3.4000 -0.0320 -0.93%
US30Yr.3.6350+0.010 +0.28%
VIX…… 19.09 -0.01 -0.05%

USDIndx101.5000 -0.6530 -0.64%đź‘Ť
Como Indx.275.73 +1.00 +0.37%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…156.52 +1.82 +1.17%

IndoCDS..92.110 +0.4900 +0.53%
(5-yr INOCD5) (11/04)

IDR…..14880.00đź‘Ť -5.50 -0.04%
Jisdor.14866.00đź‘Ť -22.00 -0.15%

Euro……1.0994 +0.0080 +0.73%

TLKM….28.90 +0.05 +0.17%
(4297)
EIDO……23.90 +0.05 +0.17%
EEM……39.39 -0.28 -0.71%

Oil……83.26 +1.73 +2.12%
Gold.2024.90 +5.70 +0.28%
Timah..24308.00 – -%
(Closed 06/04)
Nickel..23565.00 +491.00 +2.13%
(Closed 11/04)
Silver……25.46 +0.27 +1.08%
Copper…408.10 +6.15 +1.53%

Nturl Gas.2.084 -0.1760 -7.91%‼️

Ammonia 3633.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(10/04)

Coal price.194.60 -0.55 -0.28%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.202.40 -2.60 -1.26%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.205.90 +1.40 +0.68%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.206.05 -2.10 -1.00%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.133.80 +4.35 +3.36%‼️
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.126.95 +0.95 +0.75%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 125.35 +0.35 +0.28%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 125.75 -0.10 -0.08%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3775 -120 -3.08%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..627.75 +0.00 +0.00%
SoybeanOil54.16 -0.85 -1.55%
Wheat…..679.60 +5.50 +0.82%

Wood pulp..4740.00 -50.00 -1.05%
(Closed 11/04)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah, europe ijo, asia varied, US dollar index turun, yang consequently means semua commodity yang diikat nilai nya ke dollar cenderung naik. Index mungkin akan sideways tapi saham terkait komoditi harusnya tetep jalan

Oil up, gas drop, coal newcastle down, coal rotterdam jump, cpo drop. Ini sih keliatannya giliran ANTM MDKA INCO TINS untuk jalan lagi

IHSG – stoch masih down, macdp, 833 almostbuy, MFI up, BD flat, FNB,w% flat, retracement pattern keliatan mau bawa naik after mantul di fibo 23, masih optimis double bottom jalan

Kemarin BUMN konstruksi semua digoreng, Infrastructure jadi keliatan jalan, selain JSMR yang sudah run duluan. Industrials ASII kemarin naik tinggi, BMTR semoga nyusul, Financials BBCA BBRI BMRI kemaren jalan,semoga lanjut biar bisa ngangkat index, repot gendong GOTO yang bikin rusak aja

Stochastic Buy Signal: ASII PGAS MTEL MTMH MIKA LMSH WINS

MACD Buy Signal: INTP ADHI MTMH PTPP TKIM ANJT

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