What Is Attribution Analysis?

Attribution analysis is a sophisticated method for evaluating the performance of a portfolio or fund manager. Also known as “return attribution” or “performance attribution,” it attempts to quantitatively analyze aspects of an active fund manager’s investment selections and decisions—and to identify sources of excess returns, especially as compared to an index or other benchmark.

For portfolio managers and investment firms, attribution analysis can be an effective tool to assess strategies. For investors, attribution analysis works as a way to assess the performance of fund or money managers.

How Attribution Analysis Works

Attribution analysis focuses on three factors: the manager’s investment picks and asset allocation, their investment style, and the market timing of their decisions and trades.

The method begins by identifying the asset class in which a fund manager chooses to invest. An asset class generally describes the type of investments that a manager chooses; within that, it can also get more specific, describing a geographical marketplace in which they originate and/or an industry sector. European fixed income debt or U.S. technology equities could both be examples.

Then, there is the allocation of the different assets—that is, what percentage of the portfolio is weighted to specific segments, sectors, or industries. 

Specifying the type of assets will help identify a general benchmark for the comparison of performance. Often, this benchmark will take the form of a market index, a basket of comparable assets.

Analyzing Investment Style

The next step in attribution analysis is to determine the manager’s investment style. Like the class identification discussed above, a style will provide a benchmark against which to gauge the manager’s performance.

The first method of style analysis concentrates on the nature of the manager’s holdings. If they are equities, for example, are they the stocks of large-cap or small-cap companies? Value- or growth-oriented?

American economist Bill Sharpe introduced the second type of style analysis in 1988. Returns-based style analysis (RBSA) charts a fund’s returns and seeks an index with comparable performance history. Sharpe refined this method with a technique that he called quadratic optimization, which allowed him to assign a blend of indices that correlated most closely to a manager’s returns.

Explaining Alpha

Once an attribution analyst identifies that blend, they can formulate a customized benchmark of returns against which they can evaluate the manager’s performance. Such an analysis should shine a light on the excess returns, or alpha, that the manager enjoys over those benchmarks.

The next step in attribution analysis attempts to explain that alpha. Is it due to the manager’s stock picks, selection of sectors, or market timing? To determine the alpha generated by their stock picks, an analyst must identify and subtract the portion of the alpha attributable to sector and timing. Again, this can be done by developing customize benchmarks based on the manager’s selected blend of sectors and the timing of their trades. If the alpha of the fund is 13%, it is possible to assign a certain slice of that 13% to sector selection and timing of entry and exit from those sectors. The remainder will be stock selection alpha.

Market Timing and Attribution Analysis

Though some managers employ a buy-and-hold strategy, most are constantly trading, making buy and sell decisions throughout a given period. Segmenting returns by activity can be useful, telling you if a manager’s decisions to add or subtract positions from the portfolio helped or hurt the final return—vis-à-vis a more passive buy-and-hold approach.

Enter market timing, the third big factor that goes into attribution analysis. A fair amount of debate exists on its importance, though.

Certainly, this is the most difficult part of attribute analysis to put into quantitative terms. To the extent that market timing can be measured, scholars point out the importance of gauging a manager’s returns against benchmarks reflective of upturns and downturns. Ideally, the fund will go up in bullish times and will decline less than the market in bearish periods.

Even so, some scholars note that a significant portion of a manager’s performance with respect to timing is random, or luck. As a result, in general, most analysts attribute less significance to market timing than asset selection and investment style.

What Is at Par?

The term “at par” means at face value. A bond, preferred stock, or other debt instrument may trade at par, below par, or above par.

Par value is static, unlike market value, which fluctuates with credit ratings, time to maturity, and interest rate fluctuations. The par value is assigned at the time the security is issued. When securities were issued in paper form, the par value was printed on the face of the security, hence the term “face value.”

Understanding at Par

Due to the constant fluctuations of interest rates, bonds and other financial instruments almost never trade exactly at par. A bond will not trade at par if current interest rates are above or below the bond’s coupon rate, which is the interest rate that it yields.

A bond that was trading at par would be quoted at 100, meaning that it traded at 100% of its par value. A quote of 99 would mean that it is trading at 99% of its face value.

Par value for common stock exists in an anachronistic form. In its charter, the company promises not to sell its stock at lower than par value. The shares are then issued with a par value of one penny. This has no effect on the stock’s actual value in the markets.

A New Bond

If, when a company issues a new bond, it receives the face value of the security, the bond is said to have been issued at par. If the issuer receives less than the face value for the security, it is issued at a discount. If the issuer receives more than the face value for the security, it is issued at a premium.

The yield for bonds and the dividend rate for preferred stocks have a material effect on whether new issues of these securities are issued at par, at a discount, or at a premium.

A bond that trades at par has a yield equal to its coupon. Investors expect a return equal to the coupon for the risk of lending to the bond issuer.

Example of at Par

If a company issues a bond with a 5% coupon, but prevailing yields for similar bonds are 10%, investors will pay less than par for the bond to compensate for the difference in rates. The bond’s value at its maturity plus its yield up to that time must be at least 10% to attract a buyer.

If prevailing yields are lower, say 3%, an investor is willing to pay more than par for that 5% bond. The investor will receive the coupon but have to pay more for it due to the lower prevailing yields.

What Is the Accounting Equation?

The accounting equation states that a company’s total assets are equal to the sum of its liabilities and its shareholders’ equity.

This straightforward relationship between assets, liabilities, and equity is considered to be the foundation of the double-entry accounting system. The accounting equation ensures that the balance sheet remains balanced. That is, each entry made on the debit side has a corresponding entry (or coverage) on the credit side.

The accounting equation is also called the basic accounting equation or the balance sheet equation.

Understanding the Accounting Equation

The financial position of any business, large or small, is based on two key components of the balance sheet: assets and liabilities. Owners’ equity, or shareholders’ equity, is the third section of the balance sheet.

The accounting equation is a representation of how these three important components are associated with each other.

Assets represent the valuable resources controlled by the company, while liabilities represent its obligations. Both liabilities and shareholders’ equity represent how the assets of a company are financed. If it’s financed through debt, it’ll show as a liability, but if it’s financed through issuing equity shares to investors, it’ll show in shareholders’ equity.

The accounting equation helps to assess whether the business transactions carried out by the company are being accurately reflected in its books and accounts. Below are examples of items listed on the balance sheet.

Assets

Assets include cash and cash equivalents or liquid assets, which may include Treasury bills and certificates of deposit.

Accounts receivables list the amounts of money owed to the company by its customers for the sale of its products. Inventory is also considered an asset.

The major and often largest value asset of most companies be that company’s machinery, buildings, and property. These are fixed assets that are usually held for many years.

Liabilities

Liabilities are debts that a company owes and costs that it needs to pay in order to keep the company running.

Debt is a liability, whether it is a long-term loan or a bill that is due to be paid.

Costs include rent, taxes, utilities, salaries, wages, and dividends payable.

Shareholders’ Equity

The shareholders’ equity number is a company’s total assets minus its total liabilities. 

It can be defined as the total number of dollars that a company would have left if it liquidated all of its assets and paid off all of its liabilities. This would then be distributed to the shareholders.

Retained earnings are part of shareholders’ equity. This number is the sum of total earnings that were not paid to shareholders as dividends.

Think of retained earnings as savings, since it represents the total profits that have been saved and put aside (or “retained”) for future use.

Accounting Equation Formula and Calculation

$\text{Assets}=(\text{Liabilities}+\text{Owner’s Equity})$Assets=(Liabilities+Owner’s Equity)

The balance sheet holds the elements that contribute to the accounting equation:

1. Locate the company’s total assets on the balance sheet for the period.
2. Total all liabilities, which should be a separate listing on the balance sheet.
3. Locate total shareholder’s equity and add the number to total liabilities.
4. Total assets will equal the sum of liabilities and total equity.

As an example, say the leading retailer XYZ Corporation reported the following on its balance sheet for its latest full fiscal year:

• Total assets: $170 billion
• Total liabilities: $120 billion
• Total shareholders’ equity: $50 billion

If we calculate the right-hand side of the accounting equation (equity + liabilities), we arrive at ($50 billion + $120 billion) = $170 billion, which matches the value of the assets reported by the company.

About the Double-Entry System

The accounting equation is a concise expression of the complex, expanded, and multi-item display of a balance sheet. 

Essentially, the representation equates all uses of capital (assets) to all sources of capital, where debt capital leads to liabilities and equity capital leads to shareholders’ equity.

For a company keeping accurate accounts, every business transaction will be represented in at least two of its accounts. For instance, if a business takes a loan from a bank, the borrowed money will be reflected in its balance sheet as both an increase in the company’s assets and an increase in its loan liability.

If a business buys raw materials and pays in cash, it will result in an increase in the company’s inventory (an asset) while reducing cash capital (another asset). Because there are two or more accounts affected by every transaction carried out by a company, the accounting system is referred to as double-entry accounting.

The double-entry practice ensures that the accounting equation always remains balanced, meaning that the left side value of the equation will always match the right side value.

In other words, the total amount of all assets will always equal the sum of liabilities and shareholders’ equity.

The global adherence to the double-entry accounting system makes the account keeping and tallying processes more standardized and more fool-proof.

The accounting equation ensures that all entries in the books and records are vetted, and a verifiable relationship exists between each liability (or expense) and its corresponding source; or between each item of income (or asset) and its source.

Limits of the Accounting Equation

Although the balance sheet always balances out, the accounting equation can’t tell investors how well a company is performing. Investors must interpret the numbers and decide for themselves whether the company has too many or too few liabilities, not enough assets, or perhaps too many assets, or whether its financing is sufficient to ensure its long-term growth.

Real-World Example

Below is a portion of Exxon Mobil Corporation’s (XOM) balance sheet in millions as of Dec. 31, 2019:

• Total assets were $362,597
• Total liabilities were $163,659
• Total equity was $198,938

The accounting equation is calculated as follows:

• Accounting equation = $163,659 (total liabilities) + $198,938 (equity) equals $362,597, (which equals the total assets for the period)

What Is a 100% Equities Strategy?

A 100% equities strategy is a strategy commonly adopted by pooled funds, such as a mutual fund, that allocates all investable cash solely to stocks. Only equity securities are considered for investment, whether they be listed stocks, over-the-counter stocks, or private equity shares.

Understanding a 100% Equities Strategy

100% equities strategies represent portfolios that only select investments from the equities (i.e., stocks) universe. 100% equity strategies are predominant in the market and encompass a large majority of offerings.

In practice, many 100% equity strategies will have an investment objective or mandate to invest at least 80% in equities. The 80% threshold is a formality used in regulatory or registration documentation for the majority of equity funds in the marketplace, with many funds deploying anywhere from 90% to 100% to equities.

100% equity means that there will be no bonds or other asset classes. Furthermore, it implies that the portfolio would not make use of related products like equity derivatives, or employ riskier strategies such as short selling or buying on margin. Instead, 100% equities implies a more focused, traditional approach to equity investment.

Special Considerations

Equities are generally considered a riskier asset class over alternatives such as bonds, money market funds, and cash.

A well-diversified portfolio of all stocks can protect against individual company risk, or even sector risk, but market risks will still persist that can affect the equities asset class. Thus, both systemic and idiosyncratic risks are important considerations for aggressive equity investors. As a result, most financial advice recommends a portfolio that includes both equity and fixed-income (bond) components.

100% Equities Strategy Types

In the 100% equity strategy category, an investor will find a wide range of sub-classes to choose from, including those that focus on one (or a combination of) labels like capital appreciation, aggressive growth, growth, value, and income. Outlined below are some of the characteristics investors can expect from some of the most prominent 100% equity strategies.

Growth

Growth investing is a style used by many aggressive equity investors who are comfortable with higher-risk investments and seek to take advantage of growing companies. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is a broad market index that helps to represent the growth category.

Growth companies offer emerging technologies, new innovations, or a significant sector advantage that gives them above average expectations for revenue and earnings growth.

Value

Value stocks are often known as long term core holdings for an investor’s portfolio. These equity funds will rely on fundamental analysis to identify stocks that are undervalued in comparison to their fundamental value.

Investment metrics for value investing often include price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and free cash flow.

Income

Income investing is also a top category for core long-term holdings in a portfolio. Income funds will invest in equities with a focus on current income. Income from equity investments is primarily focused on mature companies paying steady dividend rates.

In the income category, real estate investment trusts and master limited partnerships are two publicly traded stock categories with unique incorporation structures that require them to pay high levels of income to equity investors.

Market Capitalization

Capitalization is a popular investing strategy for all equity portfolios. Generally, capitalization is broken down by large cap, mid cap, and small cap.

Large-cap companies can offer the lowest volatility as they have established businesses and steady earnings that pay dividends. Small-cap companies, on the other hand, are usually considered to have the highest risk since they are typically in the early stages of their development.