Posts Tagged ‘stock’

Daily Analysis 20230217

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 17th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes 400 points lower as hot inflation report, comments from Fed’s Bullard raise rate hike fears

Stocks fell Thursday after another hot inflation report, and a decline in jobless claims, showed the economy is holding up amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Dow…….33697 -431.2 -1.26%
Nasdaq.11856 -214.8 -1.78%
S&P 500..4090 -57.2 -1.38%

FTSE…….8013 +14.70 +0.18%
Dax……..15534 +27.3 +0.18%
CAC……..7366 +65.3 +0.89%

Nikkei…..27696 +194.6 +0.71%
HSI………20988 +175.5 +0.84%
Shanghai..3249 -31.5 -0.96%

IDX…..6895.66 -18.87 -0.27%
LQ45….953.49 -4.15 -0.43%
IDX30…495.68 -2.19 -0.44%

IDXEnergy…2098.15 -11.47 -0.54%
IDX BscMat 1260.50 -1.75 -0.14%
IDX Indstrl…1157.69 -0.67 -0.06%
IDXNONCYC..755.41 -4.04 -0.53%
IDX Hlthcare1605.40 -11.73 -0.73%
IDXCYCLIC…849.72 +4.64 +0.55%
IDX Techno5585.84 +57.44 +1.04%
IDX Transp1846.95 +15.38 +0.84%
IDX Infrast….867.03 +7.94 +0.92 %
IDX Finance1423.17 -3.19 -0.22%
IDX Banking1156.81 -8.52 -0.73%
IDX Property….697 -0.30 -0.05%

Indo10Yr.6.7698 -0.0076 -0.11%
ICBI..350.6495 +0.1943 +0.06%
US10Yr.3.8430 +0.0340 +0.89%
VIX……20.17 +1.94 +10.64%‼️

USDIndx104.0500+0.2289+0.21%‼️
Como Indx.270.25 -0.13 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..163.48 +1.63 +1.01%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15206.50 +39.50 +0.26%
Jisdor.15176.00 -18.00 -0.12%

Euro……1.0690 -0.0045 -0.42%

TLKM….24.87 -0.09 -0.36%
(3774)
EIDO……23.29 -0.11 -0.47%
EEM……40.12 +0.01 +0.02%

Oil……..78.49 -0.10 -0.13%
Gold 1851.80 +6.50 +0.35%
Timah 26658 -159.00 -0.59%
(Closed 02/15)
Nickel.26647.00 +620.90 +2.38%‼️
(Closed 02/16)
Silver…….21.71 +0.14 +0.64%
Copper..412.15 +10.00 +2.49%

Nturl Gas.2.394 -0.072 -2.92%

Ammonia4406.67 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(02/15)

Coal price.214.00 -5.90 -2.68%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price186.30 -9.70 -4.95%‼️
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price183.95 -11.45 -5.86%‼️
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price185.45 -11.65 -5.91%‼️
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.137.00 +0.50 +0.37%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 139.00-3.00 -2.11%
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price137.00 -3.00 -2.14%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price137.40 -1.60 -1.15%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(May)….4070 +126 +3.19%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..675.00 +1.00 +0.15%
SoybeanOil..62.15 +0.71 +1.16%
Wheat…….776.25 -4.00. -0.51%

Wood pulp…6030.00 -20 -0.33%
(Closed 02/16)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Era9wati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah rada dalem, europe market closing masih ijo asia varied, IHSG merah lagi

CPO naik tinggi, itu kayanya kemaren AALI LSIP naik tinggi… Oil merah, gas drop, coal drop, metal2 naik semua, watchout for ANTM MDKA INCO

IHSG – 2 hari NFS, belum jadi break resistance, masih SW dulu. stoch down, MACD sell, MFI sw, bd sw, jangan terlalu aggresive dulu, cermati yang lagi hajatan aja. Major trend masih up, wave 3, tapi belum lari. Kayanya nunggu resmi laporan keuangan big bank keluar semua dulu

Tinggal infrastructure yang arahnya bagus, healthcare melemah juga

Stoch Buy Signal: ASII TINS BRMS LSIP WIFI

MACD Buy Signal: GOTO INDY SRTG AALI ASSA LSIP

Alligator Buy Signal: INDF AGII BRMS MLPL IGAR

Supertrend: MTEL AALI LSIP WIFI

A Stock Sell-Off Vocabulary Guide

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Stock sell-offs are tough for long-term buy-and-hold investors to swallow. But they are a necessary and natural element of a functional marketplace. Laws of supply and demand and investor appetite fuel both uptrends and downtrends. As investors, it’s important to be aware of both of these phenomena so that we can plan accordingly.

Sell-offs also conjure up a special vocabulary of finance and investing words in the media that may be unfamiliar. Here is a cheat sheet of some of that lingo for the next time you find yourself in a downdraft.

Key Takeaways

  • Stock sell-offs are a necessary and natural element of a functional marketplace, even if they are tough for long-term buy-and-hold investors to swallow.
  • Sell-offs also conjure up a special vocabulary of finance and investing words in the media that may be unfamiliar, such as volatility, buying the dips, and short selling.
  • Knowing the language of financial markets can only make you smarter and a better investor.

Bond Yields

Rising bond yields are often blamed for a sell-off in stocks. As the Fed raises overnight lending rates and the yield, or return, on U.S. Treasury bond prices rise, it makes them more attractive to investors, large and small, who are looking for a safer and less volatile place to put their money than stocks.

Bond yields have been so low for so long, but they are starting to creep higher, drawing more money to them and away from stock. Aside from their effect on equities, though, there are various reasons why yields matter.

Buy the Dips

Buy the dips” is trader slang for buying securities following a decline in prices, with the inkling that they have fallen for no apparent reason and should recover and keep rising in short order. It’s kind of like an unexpected sale at your favorite retailer, except you think the value of the things you buy on that sale day will get more valuable over time. It doesn’t always work out in the stock market, but people like saying it.

Capitulation

In a way, you can think of capitulation as ripping your computer off the desk, hurling it across the room, and throwing the mother of all tantrums. But really it’s another way of saying that you can’t bear the losses anymore in a particular security or market and you are going to cut your losses and sell. When markets or a particular stock sell off in heavy volume, many investors are tempted to abandon ship and sell their stakes as well, or capitulate. That only exacerbates the losses.

Circuit Breaker

A circuit breaker is like the breaker box in your basement. However, this one can shut off the juice at the major securities exchanges. Exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq are sometimes compelled to flip the switch when there is too much of an imbalance between sell and buy orders.

With more and more trades being pushed through computer algorithms, those imbalances can be more frequent. They last anywhere from a few minutes to several hours, but it’s all in the name of smoothing out the order flow so markets can effectively match buyers and sellers. Trading is halted for 15 minutes when a Level 1 circuit breaker is triggered by a 7 percent decrease from the S&P 500’s closing price.

Correction

In general, a correction is a 10% decline of the price of a security, market, or index from its most recent high. A correction should not be confused with a crash or just a bad day in the markets; these happen fairly frequently and can last anywhere from a couple of days to several months. Stocks can be in a correction before the index they are included in falls into one.

Implied Volatility

Implied volatility refers to the estimated changes in a security’s price and is generally used when pricing options. In general, implied volatility increases when the market is bearish—when investors believe that the asset’s price will decline over time—and decreases when the market is bullish—when investors believe that the price will rise over time.

Inflation

Simply put, inflation is the rate at which the level of prices for goods and services rises, which can drive the purchasing power of a currency lower. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to rising inflation when it sets overnight lending rates or the Federal Funds Rate, as it is known.

Since the Fed has been raising rates of late and plans to continue to do so a few more times, at least, it makes borrowing costs more expensive which can impede growth and thus profits. It may sound complicated, but you can understand the relationship between interest rates and stock markets.

Short Selling

Basically, short selling is a bet that a security or index will decline wherein a short seller borrows shares to offer them for sale. The idea is to sell such shares, of which the short seller has no ownership, at a higher price hoping that the price falls by the time the trade needs to be settled. That would enable the short seller to acquire shares at the lower price and deliver them to the buyer, making a profit equaling the difference in prices.

While, if done right, short selling can be profitable, it can amount to massive losses if the trade goes the other way. It is definitely not a strategy for beginners.

Tariff

Tariffs are increased duties that are levied by countries on goods they import to protect domestic industries. These levies make the imported goods less attractive to domestic consumers. But even as this is expected to be a shot in the arm for the domestic economy, it has other consequences like upsetting trade partners who may retaliate, setting off a trade war. When this occurs with a significant trading partner, the future of large corporations that conduct business in those countries comes under question, putting pressure on the stock markets.

Volatility

Technically speaking, volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion, or returns, for a given security or market index. That’s another way of saying it’s a measurement of change (or beta) of a security or index against its normal patterns or benchmarks it is weighed against. In the stock market, one way of measuring volatility is to look at the Chicago Board of Options Volatility Index (VIX).

There are many other ways to measure volatility, depending on what you are looking at or measuring. If you think of it as a measurement of the rate of change that reflects uncertainty or risk, you are on the right track.

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What Is a Bar Graph?

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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What Is a Bar Graph?

A bar graph is a graphical representation of information. It uses bars that extend to different heights to depict value.

Bar graphs can be created with vertical bars, horizontal bars, grouped bars (multiple bars that compare values in a category), or stacked bars (bars containing multiple types of information).

Bar graphs are commonly used in business and financial analysis to display often complicated data. They can convey information quickly and effectively. In the financial industry, a volume chart is a commonly used vertical bar graph.

Key Takeaways

  • Bar graphs can display data in visual ways.
  • Bar graphs have an x-axis and a y-axis and can be used to compare one or more categories of data.
  • Data is presented via vertical or horizontal bars.
  • Bars can represent one or more labeled variables.
  • Bars can also be grouped together for comparative purposes.

Understanding a Bar Graph

The purpose of a bar graph is to convey relational information quickly in a visual manner. The bars display the value for a particular category of data.

The vertical axis on the left or right side of the bar graph is called the y-axis. The horizontal axis at the bottom of a bar graph is called the x-axis.

The height or length of the bars represents the value of the data. The value corresponds to levels on the y-axis.

The values on the x-axis can be any variable, such as time, earnings per share (EPS), revenue, or cash flow. Bar graphs are often used to depict trading volume for a security. They appear in a panel below a security’s price chart.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


Bar Graph Properties

Certain aspects of a bar graph separate them from other types of graphs and charts.

  • The bars on a bar graph have equal width and interval spacing.
  • Bars can run vertically or horizontally.
  • Bars share the same starting point or base. In other words, all bars will start at the bottom of the graph and extend upward (vertically) or they’ll start at the side of the graph and extend across (horizontally).
  • The y-axis of a bar graph is the side or vertical axis.
  • The x-axis of a bar graph is the bottom or horizontal axis.
  • Data value is defined on the y-axis; data type is defined on the x-axis.
  • Bar height or extension corresponds to the value of data.
  • The higher or longer a bar, the greater the value.
  • If colors are used, a bar graph may include a legend that defines them.

Bar Graph Types

Vertical Bar Graph

A vertical bar graph contains data that’s displayed vertically using rectangular bars that represent a measure of data. The rectangular bars start and extend from the bottom x-axis. The y-axis allows users to measure the height of the bars against specific levels of value inscribed on it. Usually, the higher the bar, the greater the value.

Horizontal Bar Graph

A horizontal bar graph contains data that’s displayed horizontally using rectangular bars that represent a measure of data. The rectangular bars start and extend from the side y-axis, In this case, the x-axis allows users to measure the length of the bars against specific levels of value inscribed on it. Usually, the longer the bar, the greater the value.

Grouped Bar Graph

Grouped bar graphs, also called clustered bar graphs, represent discrete values for more than one item in the same category. The separate, rectangular bars are grouped together. Essentially, they break down the overall value (or items) for (or within) the category. A grouped bar graph could display more than one category, each with its separate rectangular bars. The information can be depicted vertically or horizontally.

Stacked Bar Graph

Stacked bar graphs, also known as composite bar graphs, divide a total into parts. These parts are typically identified using different colors within the same rectangular bar. So, a single rectangular bar that represents a total will display several parts and colors. The parts need to be labeled for identification. The information can be depicted vertically or horizontally.

Bar Graph Uses

  • A bar graph is used to present data visually
  • It can be used by industries to convey complicated information easily
  • It can compare different variables and values
  • It can reveal and facilitate the study of patterns over time
  • It can compare various sets of data
  • It can display categories and sub-categories
  • It can display results of surveys

In technical analysis, a volume bar chart shows how much trading volume there was on a particular day. The x-axis displays days, while a bar extending up from any day depicts the amount of volume, as measured by the y-axis.

When a bar graph has a well-defined zero point and the data set has both positive and negative values in relation to this point, both ranges of values can be displayed. Bars above the zero line typically represent positive values, while bars below the zero line typically show negative values.

Example of a Bar Graph

Many traders employ a moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which is a popular technical indicator that illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.

The following daily price chart for Apple stock shows three types of bar graphs.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


Extending from the right is price by volume, a type of horizontal bar graph which shows volume dispersion based on price.

Along the bottom of the chart, volume is shown using a vertical bar graph. It displays bars representing the number of shares traded per day.

Finally, the MACD histogram at the very bottom shows the separation between the MACD and the signal line. When the histogram crosses the zero line it means the MACD and signal line have crossed, which some traders use as a trade signal.

Bar Graph vs. Bar Chart

A bar graph shows data in columns, while a bar chart is a technical analysis tool that displays the open, high, low, and close prices for a particular security during a specific time period (such as a day or week) using a vertical bar. Small horizontal lines extend to the left and right of the vertical bar to show the open and close prices. The top and bottom of each bar represent the high and low prices for the period.

Unlike the bar graph, the price bar chart only covers relevant prices and does not extend all the way up from the x-axis.

Bar Graph vs. Histogram

The most immediately noticeable difference between a bar graph and a histogram is that the bars in a bar graph typically don’t touch each other (other than in a grouped bar graph). A histogram is a type of bar graph where the bars have no gaps between them.

A histogram is used to depict the frequency distribution of variables in a data set. A bar graph depicts a comparison of discrete or categorical variables. Furthermore, a histogram displays distribution frequency as a two-dimensional figure: the height and width of rectangles have specific meanings. Both can vary. A bar graph is one-dimensional. The height of the rectangular bars represents something specific while the width is meaningless.

Bar Graph Limitations

A bar graph is a way to display information. How the data is chosen to be displayed could affect its interpretation. For example, if too large of a scale is chosen, then the data may appear insignificant when in actuality, it’s not. The scale doesn’t allow for an appropriate comparison.

In addition, bar graphs may make data look compelling when it actually lacks substance. For example, looking at only a few days worth of volume data in a stock doesn’t provide much relevant information. Yet comparing recent volume to volume over the last year can provide a technical trader with useful information for trading decisions.

What Are Some Benefits of a Bar Graph?

A bar graph can be of great use when you have to explain the meaning of complex data. It allows you to compare different sets of data among different groups easily. It instantly demonstrates this relationship using two axes, where the categories are on one axis and the various values are on the other. A bar graph can also illustrate important changes in data throughout a period of time.

Why Are Bar Graphs Used?

They’re used to present data, or a concept involving data, in a visual way. This can make it easier for people to quickly understand the meaning of the data. In addition, presenting data graphically rather than through text or the spoken word can be an efficient and faster way to communicate.

What Are the Types of Bar Graphs?

There are horizontal and vertical bar graphs. There are also stacked and grouped bar graphs. While histograms are similar in appearance to bar graphs, they represent data in a different way.

The Bottom Line

A bar graph can be a very useful business tool that helps deliver complicated data and concepts in a way that’s easy to understand.

The overall relationship of the data (and, thus, the main point that a company is making with its presentation) is illustrated using the y-axis (values) and the x-axis (categories).

Traders use volume bar graphs every day. These can measure, for example, the number of trades executed over a certain time period (such as a day) for different securities. Or, they can indicate the volume of trades at particular prices for a security.

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The Pioneers of Technical Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Whether you consider yourself a technical analyst or not, there are very few investing techniques that do not at least give a nod to the technical side of investing. Some investing styles use nothing but technical analysis, with their practitioners often claiming that they know nothing of stock fundamentals because all they need is in the charts. This segment of investing didn’t sprout from nothing. In this article, we will look at the men that pioneered the field of technical analysis. (See also: Technical Analysis.)

All Things Flow From Dow

Charles Dow occupies a huge place in the history of finance. He founded The Wall Street Journal – the benchmark by which all financial papers are measured – and, more importantly for our purpose, he created the Dow Jones Industrial Index. In doing so, Dow opened the door to technical analysis. Dow recorded the highs and lows of his average daily, weekly and monthly, correlating the patterns with the ebb and flow of the market. He would then write articles, always after the fact, pointing out how certain patterns explained and predicted previous market events.

However, Dow can’t take all – or even a majority of – the credit for the theory bearing his name. Dow Theory would have only acted as a hindsight confirmation of loose principals if it weren’t for William P. Hamilton. (See also: Giants of Finance: Charles Dow.)

First One Into the Water: William P. Hamilton

Dow Theory was a collection of market trends linked heavily to oceanic metaphors. The fundamental, long-term trend of four or more years was the tide of the market – either rising (bullish) or falling (bearish). This was followed by shorter-term waves that lasted between a week and a month. And, lastly, there were the splashes and tiny ripples of choppy water insignificant day-to-day fluctuations.

Hamilton used these measures in addition to a few rules – such as the railroad average and the industrial average confirming each other’s direction – to call bull and bear markets with laudable accuracy. Although he did call the 1929 crash too early (1927, 1928), he made a final appeal on Oct. 21, 1929, three days before the crash and mere weeks before his death at the age of 63.

The Practitioner: Robert Rhea

Robert Rhea took Dow Theory and turned it into a practical indicator for going long or short in the market. He literally wrote the book on the topic: “The Dow Theory” (1932). Rhea was successful at using the theory to call tops and bottoms – and able enough to profit from those calls. Very soon after mastering Dow Theory, Rhea didn’t need to trade on his knowledge. He only had to write it down.

After calling the market bottom in 1932 and a top in 1937, the fortunes made by subscribers to Rhea’s investment letter, Dow Theory Comments, brought in thousands more subscribers. As with Hamilton, however, Rhea’s life as a market prognosticator was short – he died in 1939. (See also: Dow Theory Tutorial.)

The Wizard: Edson Gould

Perhaps the most accurate forecaster with the longest track record, Edson Gould, was still making calls up to 1983 at the age of 81. Gould also made most of his money from writing newsletters rather than investing, selling subscriptions for $500 in 1930. He caught all of the major bull and bear market points, making several eerily accurate predictions, such as the Dow rising 400 points in a 20-year bull market, that the Dow would top 1,040 in 1973 and so on.

Gould used charts, market psychology and indicators including the Senti-Meter – the DJIA divided by the dividends per share of the companies. Gould was so good at his trade that he continued to make accurate calls from beyond the grave. Gould died in 1987, but in 1991, the Dow hit 3,000, as he’d predicted. At the time of his prediction in 1979, the Dow had yet to break 1,000.

[The work of these pioneers formed the foundation for a huge array of technical tools used by traders today to develop profitable trading strategies. To learn more, check out the Technical Analysis course on the Investopedia Academy, which includes interactive content and real-world examples to boost your trading skills.]

The Chartist: John Magee

John Magee wrote the bible of technical analysis, “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” (1948). Magee was one of the first to trade solely on the stock price and its pattern on the historical charts. Magee charted everything: individual stocks, averages, trading volumes – basically anything that could be graphed. He then poured over these charts to identify broad patterns and specific shapes like weak triangles, flags, bodies, shoulders and so on.

Unfortunately for Magee, early on, he was better at looking after his clients than his own portfolio, often selling out in his own portfolio based on gut feelings despite strong hold signals from his charts. From his 40s to his death at 86, however, Magee was one of the most disciplined technical analysts around, refusing to even read a current newspaper lest it interfere with the signals of his charts. (For more, see: Analyzing Chart Patterns.)

The Omissions

There is bound to be some controversy with a list like this. Where is the infamous Jesse Livermore, the trader whose gut calls on price ticks are arguably the first successful technical trades? What about R. N. Elliott? What about WD Gann?

Well, Livermore did little in the area of theorizing and died broke. Elliott tweaked technical analysis with his own hypothesis, but his theories are difficult to test and even harder to trade – involving something of mysticism piled on top of numbers. Similarly, Gann’s lines, while seemingly useful in concept, are so sensitive to error that their practicality is questionable. Both of these men were purported to have made fortunes trading on their theories, but there is no solid record to back that up as there is for Livermore. Certainly no multi-million-dollar estate was left behind by either.

The Bottom Line

Dow, Hamilton, Rhea, Gould and Magee are on the main track of technical analysis, each carrying the theory and practice a little further. There are of course, many branching side paths that, while interesting detours, didn’t advance this main thrust. Every time an investor – fundamental or technical – talks about getting in low or picking entry and exit points, they are paying homage to these men and the techniques for which they laid the foundation. (See also: Introduction to Types of Trading: Technical Traders.)

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