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Comparing Notional Value vs. Market Value

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Notional Value vs. Market Value: An Overview

The notional value and market value both describe the value of a security. Notional value speaks to how much total value a security theoretically controls—for instance through derivatives contracts or debt obligations. Market value, on the other hand, is the price of a security right now that can be bought or sold on an exchange or through a broker.

Market value is also used to refer to the market capitalization of a publicly traded company and is determined by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current share price.

Key Takeaways

  • Notional value is the total value controlled by a position or obligation; e.g. how much value is represented by a derivatives contract.
  • Market value is price of a security set by buyers and sellers in the marketplace through supply and demand.
  • For example, a call option representing 100 shares of XYZ stock with a strike price of $40 may trade in the market for $1.20 per contract (100 x $1.20 = $120 market value), but represents a notional value of $4,000 (100 x $40).

Notional Value

The notional value is the total amount of a security’s underlying asset at its spot price. The notional value distinguishes between the amount of money invested and the amount of money associated with the whole transaction. The notional value is calculated by multiplying the units in one contract by the spot price.

For example, assume an investor wants to buy one gold futures contract. The futures contract costs the buyer 100 troy ounces of gold. If gold futures are trading at $1,300, then one gold futures contract has a notional value of $130,000.

Notional value can be used in futures and stocks. But it is more often seen and used in the following five ways: through interest rate swaps, total return swaps, equity options, foreign currency exchange and foreign currency derivatives, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

With interest rate swaps, the notional value is used to come up with the amount of interest due. With total return swaps, the notional value is used as part of several calculations that determine the swap rates. With equity options, the notional value refers to the value that the option controls. With foreign currency exchange and foreign currency derivatives, notional value is used to value the currencies.

Notional value accounts for the total value of the position, while market value is the price at which the position can be bought or sold, as set by the market.

Market Value

Market value is very different from notional value. Market value is the price of a security that buyers and sellers agree on in the marketplace. The security’s market value is calculated by determining the security’s supply and demand. Unlike the notional value, which determines the total value of a security based on its contract specification, the market value is the price of one unit of the security.

For example, assume that the S&P 500 Index futures are trading at $2,700. The market value of one unit of the S&P 500 Index is $2,700. Conversely, the notional value of one S&P Index futures contract is $675,000 ($2,700*250) because one S&P Index futures contract leverages 250 units of the index.

A company’s market value is a good indication of investors’ perceptions of its business prospects. The range of market values in the marketplace is enormous, ranging from less than $1 million for the smallest companies to hundreds of billions for the world’s biggest and most successful companies.

Market value can fluctuate a great deal over periods of time and is substantially influenced by the business cycle. Market values may plunge during the bear markets that accompany recessions, and often rise during the bull markets that are a feature of economic expansion.

The Bottom Line

Market value and notional value each represent different sums that are important for investors to understand. The notional value is how much value is represented by an obligation or contract—for instance, an options contract that controls 1,000 bushels of wheat or a corporate bond with a face value at maturity of $1,000. The market value of these obligations, however, will vary due to supply and demand and prevailing market conditions. For instance if the options contract is very far out of the money, its market value may be close to zero, or if interest rates rise substantially the market value of the bond will be for less than $1,000.

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Using Bullish Candlestick Patterns to Buy Stocks

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart for tracking the movement of securities. They have their origins in the centuries-old Japanese rice trade and have made their way into modern-day price charting. Some investors find them more visually appealing than the standard bar charts and the price actions easier to interpret.

Candlesticks are so named because the rectangular shape and lines on either end resemble a candle with wicks. Each candlestick usually represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock. Over time, the candlesticks group into recognizable patterns that investors can use to make buying and selling decisions.

Key Takeaways

  • Candlestick charts are useful for technical day traders to identify patterns and make trading decisions.
  • Bullish candlesticks indicate entry points for long trades, and can help predict when a downtrend is about to turn around to the upside.
  • Here, we go over several examples of bullish candlestick patterns to look out for.

Click Play to Learn How to Use Bullish Candlestick Patterns to Buy Stock

How to Read a Single Candlestick

Each candlestick represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock through four pieces of information: the opening price, the closing price, the high price, and the low price. The color of the central rectangle (called the real body) tells investors whether the opening price or the closing price was higher.

A black or filled candlestick means the closing price for the period was less than the opening price; hence, it is bearish and indicates selling pressure. Meanwhile, a white or hollow candlestick means that the closing price was greater than the opening price. This is bullish and shows buying pressure.

The lines at both ends of a candlestick are called shadows, and they show the entire range of price action for the day, from low to high. The upper shadow shows the stock’s highest price for the day, and the lower shadow shows the lowest price for the day.

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020


Bullish Candlestick Patterns

Over time, groups of daily candlesticks fall into recognizable patterns with descriptive names like three white soldiers, dark cloud cover, hammer, morning star, and abandoned baby, to name just a few. Patterns form over a period of one to four weeks and are a source of valuable insight into a stock’s future price action. Before we delve into individual bullish candlestick patterns, note the following two principles:

  1. Bullish reversal patterns should form within a downtrend. Otherwise, it’s not a bullish pattern, but a continuation pattern.
  2. Most bullish reversal patterns require bullish confirmation. In other words, they must be followed by an upside price move which can come as a long hollow candlestick or a gap up and be accompanied by high trading volume. This confirmation should be observed within three days of the pattern.

The bullish reversal patterns can further be confirmed through other means of traditional technical analysis—like trend lines, momentum, oscillators, or volume indicators—to reaffirm buying pressure. There are a great many candlestick patterns that indicate an opportunity to buy. We will focus on five bullish candlestick patterns that give the strongest reversal signal.

1. The Hammer or the Inverted Hammer

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2021


  • The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which signals that a stock is nearing the bottom in a downtrend.
  • The body of the candle is short with a longer lower shadow. This is a sign of sellers driving prices lower during the trading session, only to be followed by strong buying pressure to end the session on a higher close.
  • Before we jump in on the bullish reversal action, however, we must confirm the upward trend by watching it closely for the next few days.
  • The reversal must also be validated through the rise in the trading volume.

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2021


The Inverted Hammer also forms in a downtrend and represents a likely trend reversal or support.

  • It’s identical to the Hammer except for the longer upper shadow, which indicates buying pressure after the opening price.
  • This is followed by considerable selling pressure, which wasn’t enough to bring the price down below its opening value.

Again, bullish confirmation is required, and it can come in the form of a long hollow candlestick or a gap up, accompanied by a heavy trading volume.

2. The Bullish Engulfing

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020

The Bullish Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern.

  • The Bullish Engulfing pattern appears in a downtrend and is a combination of one dark candle followed by a larger hollow candle.
  • The second candle completely ‘engulfs’ the real body of the first one, without regard to the length of the tail shadows.
  • On the second day of the pattern, the price opens lower than the previous low, yet buying pressure pushes the price up to a higher level than the previous high, culminating in an obvious win for the buyers.

It is advisable to enter a long position when the price moves higher than the high of the second engulfing candle—in other words when the downtrend reversal is confirmed.

3. The Piercing Line

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020

Similar to the engulfing pattern, the Piercing Line is a two-candle bullish reversal pattern, also occurring in downtrends.

  • The first long black candle is followed by a white candle that opens lower than the previous close.
  • Soon thereafter, the buying pressure pushes the price up halfway or more (preferably two-thirds of the way) into the real body of the black candle.

4. The Morning Star

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020

As the name indicates, the Morning Star is a sign of hope and a new beginning in a gloomy downtrend.

  • The pattern consists of three candles: one short-bodied candle (called a doji or a spinning top) between a preceding long black candle and a succeeding long white one.
  • The color of the real body of the short candle can be either white or black, and there is no overlap between its body and that of the black candle before. It shows that the selling pressure that was there the day before is now subsiding.
  • The third white candle overlaps with the body of the black candle and shows renewed buyer pressure and a start of a bullish reversal, especially if confirmed by the higher volume.

5. The Three White Soldiers

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2021


This pattern is usually observed after a period of downtrend or in price consolidation.

  • It consists of three long white candles that close progressively higher on each subsequent trading day.
  • Each candle opens higher than the previous open and closes near the high of the day, showing a steady advance of buying pressure.
  • Investors should exercise caution when white candles appear to be too long as that may attract short sellers and push the price of the stock further down. 

While there are some ways to predict markets, technical analysis is not always a perfect indication of performance. Either way, to invest you’ll need a broker account. You can check out Investopedia’s list of the best online stock brokers to get an idea of the top choices in the industry.

Putting It All Together

The chart below for Enbridge, Inc. (ENB) shows three of the bullish reversal patterns discussed above: the Inverted Hammer, the Piercing Line, and the Hammer.

The chart for Pacific DataVision, Inc. (PDVW) shows the Three White Soldiers pattern. Note how the reversal in downtrend is confirmed by the sharp increase in the trading volume.

What Is the Most Bullish Candlestick Pattern?

The bullish engulfing pattern and the ascending triangle pattern are considered among the most favorable candlestick patterns. As with other forms of technical analysis, it is important to look for bullish confirmation and understand that there are no guaranteed results.

What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern?

A spinning top, or doji, is a candlestick with a short body and two long shadows, indicating that prices fluctuated over the course of a trading period before ultimately closing near the opening price. In technical analysis, this indicates that neither buyers or sellers have the upper hand.

What Is a Bullish Belt Hold Candlestick Pattern?

A bullish belt hold is a pattern of declining prices, followed by a trading period of significant gains. In technical analysis, this is considered a sign of reversal after a downtrend. As with other forms of technical analysis, traders should be careful to wait for bullish confirmation. Even with confirmation, there is no guarantee that a pattern will play out.

The Bottom Line

Investors should use candlestick charts like any other technical analysis tool (i.e., to study the psychology of market participants in the context of stock trading). They provide an extra layer of analysis on top of the fundamental analysis that forms the basis for trading decisions.

We looked at five of the more popular candlestick chart patterns that signal buying opportunities. They can help identify a change in trader sentiment where buyer pressure overcomes seller pressure. Such a downtrend reversal can be accompanied by a potential for long gains. That said, the patterns themselves do not guarantee that the trend will reverse. Investors should always confirm reversal by the subsequent price action before initiating a trade. 

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What Is a Paper Trade? Definition, Meaning, and How to Trade

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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What Is Paper Trade?

A paper trade is a simulated trade that allows an investor to practice buying and selling without risking real money. The term dates back to a time when (before the proliferation of online trading platforms) aspiring traders would practice on paper before risking money in live markets. While learning, a paper trader records all trades by hand to keep track of hypothetical trading positions, portfolios, and profits or losses. Today, most practice trading involves the use of an electronic stock market simulator, which looks and feels like an actual trading platform.

Key Takeaways

  • Paper trading is simulated trading that allows investors to practice buying and selling securities.
  • Paper trading can test a new investment strategy before employing it in a live account.
  • Many online brokers offer clients paper trade accounts.
  • Paper trades teach novices how to navigate platforms and make trades, but may not represent the true emotions that occur during real market conditions.

What Does Paper Trading Tell You?

The development of online trading platforms and software has increased the ease and popularity of paper trading. Today’s simulators allow investors to trade live markets without the commitment of actual capital and the process can help to gauge whether investment ideas have merit. Online brokers such as TradeStation, Fidelity, and TD Ameritrade’s thinkorswim offer clients paper trading simulators.

For example, TD Ameritrade’s paperMoney® is designed to help customers try options and different investment strategies without the worry of losing any money. Nearly everything about the simulator is the same as their feature-rich thinkorswim trading platform, except the investor is not trading real money. Investopedia provides a free simulator for trading stocks.

To get the most benefits from paper trading, an investment decision and the placing of trades should follow real trading practices and objectives. The paper investor should consider the same risk-return objectives, investment constraints, and trading horizon as they would use with a live account. For example, it would make little sense for a risk-averse long-term investor to practice numerous short-term trades like a day trader.

Also, paper transactions can be applied to many market conditions. As an example, a trade placed in a market characterized by high levels of market volatility is likely to result in higher slippage costs due to wider spreads compared to a market that is moving in an orderly manner. Slippage occurs when a trader obtains a different price than expected from the time the trade is initiated to the time the trade is made.

Investors and traders can use simulated trading to familiarize themselves with various order types such as stop-loss, limit orders, and market orders. Charts, quotes, and news feeds are available on many platforms as well.

Paper Trade Accounts vs. Live Accounts

Paper trading may provide a false sense of security and often results in distorted investment returns. In other words, nonconformity with the real market happens because paper trading does not involve the risk of real genuine capital. Also, paper trading allows for basic investment strategies—such as buying low and selling high—which are more challenging to adhere to in real life, but are relatively easy to achieve while paper trading.

The fact is that investors and traders are likely to exhibit different emotions and judgment when risking real money, which may lead them to different behavior when operating a live account. For example, consider a real trade by a new foreign exchange trader who enters into a long position with the euro against the U.S. dollar ahead of nonfarm payrolls data. If the report is much better than expected and the euro drops sharply, then the trader may double down in an attempt to recoup losses in a paper trade, as opposed to taking the loss as would be advisable in a real trade.

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What They Are, and What They Tell Investors

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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A Bollinger Band® is a technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines. They are plotted as two standard deviations, both positively and negatively, away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security’s price and can be adjusted to user preferences.

Bollinger Bands® was developed by technical trader John Bollinger and designed to give investors a higher probability of identifying when an asset is oversold or overbought.

Key Takeaways

  • Bollinger Bands® is a technical analysis tool to generate oversold or overbought signals and was developed by John Bollinger.
  • Three lines compose Bollinger Bands: A simple moving average, or the middle band, and an upper and lower band.
  • The upper and lower bands are typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20-day simple moving average and can be modified.
  • When the price continually touches the upper Bollinger Band, it can indicate an overbought signal.
  • If the price continually touches the lower band it can indicate an oversold signal.

Understanding Bollinger Bands

How to Calculate Bollinger Bands®

The first step in calculating Bollinger Bands® is to compute the simple moving average (SMA) of the security, typically using a 20-day SMA. A 20-day SMA averages the closing prices for the first 20 days as the first data point.

The next data point drops the earliest price, adds the price on day 21 and takes the average, and so on. Next, the standard deviation of the security price will be obtained. Standard deviation is a mathematical measurement of average variance and features prominently in statistics, economics, accounting, and finance.

For a given data set, the standard deviation measures how far numbers are from an average value. Standard deviation can be calculated by taking the square root of the variance, which itself is the average of the squared differences of the mean.

Next, multiply that standard deviation value by two and both add and subtract that amount from each point along the SMA. Those produce the upper and lower bands.

Here is this Bollinger Band® formula:


BOLU = MA ( TP , n ) + m σ [ TP , n ] BOLD = MA ( TP , n ) m σ [ TP , n ] where: BOLU = Upper Bollinger Band BOLD = Lower Bollinger Band MA = Moving average TP (typical price) = ( High + Low + Close ) ÷ 3 n = Number of days in smoothing period (typically 20) m = Number of standard deviations (typically 2) σ [ TP , n ] = Standard Deviation over last  n  periods of TP \begin{aligned} &\text{BOLU} = \text {MA} ( \text {TP}, n ) + m * \sigma [ \text {TP}, n ] \\ &\text{BOLD} = \text {MA} ( \text {TP}, n ) – m * \sigma [ \text {TP}, n ] \\ &\textbf{where:} \\ &\text {BOLU} = \text {Upper Bollinger Band} \\ &\text {BOLD} = \text {Lower Bollinger Band} \\ &\text {MA} = \text {Moving average} \\ &\text {TP (typical price)} = ( \text{High} + \text{Low} + \text{Close} ) \div 3 \\ &n = \text {Number of days in smoothing period (typically 20)} \\ &m = \text {Number of standard deviations (typically 2)} \\ &\sigma [ \text {TP}, n ] = \text {Standard Deviation over last } n \text{ periods of TP} \\ \end{aligned}
BOLU=MA(TP,n)+mσ[TP,n]BOLD=MA(TP,n)mσ[TP,n]where:BOLU=Upper Bollinger BandBOLD=Lower Bollinger BandMA=Moving averageTP (typical price)=(High+Low+Close)÷3n=Number of days in smoothing period (typically 20)m=Number of standard deviations (typically 2)σ[TP,n]=Standard Deviation over last n periods of TP

What Do Bollinger Bands® Tell You?

Bollinger Bands® is a popular technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market. John Bollinger has a set of 22 rules to follow when using the bands as a trading system.

The Squeeze

The “squeeze” is the central concept of Bollinger Bands®. When the bands come close together, constricting the moving average, it is called a squeeze. A squeeze signals a period of low volatility and is considered by traders to be a potential sign of future increased volatility and possible trading opportunities.

Conversely, the wider apart the bands move, the more likely the chance of a decrease in volatility and the greater the possibility of exiting a trade. These conditions are not trading signals. The bands do not indicate when the change may take place or in which direction the price could move.

Breakouts

Approximately 90% of price action occurs between the two bands. Any breakout above or below the bands is significant. The breakout is not a trading signal and many investors mistake that when the price hits or exceeds one of the bands as a signal to buy or sell. Breakouts provide no clue as to the direction and extent of future price movement.

Example of Bollinger Bands®

In the chart below, Bollinger Bands® bracket the 20-day SMA of the stock with an upper and lower band along with the daily movements of the stock’s price. Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, when the markets become more volatile the bands widen; during less volatile periods, the bands’ contract.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


Limitations of Bollinger Bands®

Bollinger Bands® is not a standalone trading system but just one indicator designed to provide traders with information regarding price volatility. John Bollinger suggests using them with two or three other non-correlated indicators that provide more direct market signals and indicators based on different types of data. Some of his favored technical techniques are moving average divergence/convergence (MACD), on-balance volume, and relative strength index (RSI).

Because Bollinger Bands® are computed from a simple moving average, they weigh older price data the same as the most recent, meaning that new information may be diluted by outdated data. Also, the use of 20-day SMA and 2 standard deviations is a bit arbitrary and may not work for everyone in every situation. Traders should adjust their SMA and standard deviation assumptions accordingly and monitor them.

What Do Bollinger Bands® Tell You?

Bollinger Bands® gives traders an idea of where the market is moving based on prices. It involves the use of three bands—one for the upper level, another for the lower level, and the third for the moving average. When prices move closer to the upper band, it indicates that the market may be overbought. Conversely, the market may be oversold when prices end up moving closer to the lower or bottom band.

Which Indicators Work Best with Bollinger Bands®?

Many technical indicators work best in conjunction with other ones. Bollinger Bands® are often used along with the relative strength indicator (RSI) as well as the BandWidth indicator, which is the measure of the width of the bands relative to the middle band. Traders use BandWidth to find Bollinger Squeezes.

How Accurate Are Bollinger Bands®?

Since Bollinger Bands® are set two use +/- two standard deviations around an SMA, we should expect that approximately 95% of the time, the observed price action will fall within these bands.

What Time Frame Is Best Used With Bollinger Bands®?

Bollinger Bands® typically use a 20-day moving average.

The Bottom Line

Bollinger Bands® can be a useful tool for traders for assessing the relative level of over- or under-sold position of a stock and provides them with insight on when to enter and exit a position. Certain aspects of Bollinger Bands®, such as the squeeze, work well for currency trading. Buying when stock prices cross below the lower Bollinger Band® often helps traders take advantage of oversold conditions and profit when the stock price moves back up toward the center moving-average line.

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