What Is an Anomaly?

In economics and finance, an anomaly is when the actual result under a given set of assumptions is different from the expected result predicted by a model. An anomaly provides evidence that a given assumption or model does not hold up in practice. The model can either be a relatively new or older model.

Understanding Anomalies

In finance, two common types of anomalies are market anomalies and pricing anomalies. Market anomalies are distortions in returns that contradict the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Pricing anomalies are when something—for example, a stock—is priced differently than how a model predicts it will be priced.

Common market anomalies include the small-cap effect and the January effect. The small-cap effect refers to the small company effect, where smaller companies tend to outperform larger ones over time. The January effect refers to the tendency of stocks to return much more in the month of January than in others.

Anomalies also often occur with respect to asset pricing models, in particular, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Although the CAPM was derived by using innovative assumptions and theories, it often does a poor job of predicting stock returns. The numerous market anomalies that were observed after the formation of the CAPM helped form the basis for those wishing to disprove the model. Although the model may not hold up in empirical and practical tests, it still does hold some utility.

Anomalies tend to be few and far between. In fact, once anomalies become publicly known, they tend to quickly disappear as arbitragers seek out and eliminate any such opportunity from occurring again.

Types of Market Anomalies

In financial markets, any opportunity to earn excess profits undermines the assumptions of market efficiency, which states that prices already reflect all relevant information and so cannot be arbitraged.

January Effect

The January effect is a rather well-known anomaly. According to the January effect, stocks that underperformed in the fourth quarter of the prior year tend to outperform the markets in January. The reason for the January effect is so logical that it is almost hard to call it an anomaly. Investors will often look to jettison underperforming stocks late in the year so that they can use their losses to offset capital gains taxes (or to take the small deduction that the IRS allows if there is a net capital loss for the year). Many people call this event tax-loss harvesting.

As selling pressure is sometimes independent of the company’s actual fundamentals or valuation, this “tax selling” can push these stocks to levels where they become attractive to buyers in January.

Likewise, investors will often avoid buying underperforming stocks in the fourth quarter and wait until January to avoid getting caught up in the tax-loss selling. As a result, there is excess selling pressure before January and excess buying pressure after Jan. 1, leading to this effect.

September Effect

The September effect refers to historically weak stock market returns for the month of September. There is a statistical case for the September effect depending on the period analyzed, but much of the theory is anecdotal. It is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year.

There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children. As with many other calendar effects, the September effect is considered a historical quirk in the data rather than an effect with any causal relationship. 

Days of the Week Anomalies

Efficient market supporters hate the “Days of the Week” anomaly because it not only appears to be true, but it also makes no sense. Research has shown that stocks tend to move more on Fridays than Mondays and that there is a bias toward positive market performance on Fridays. It is not a huge discrepancy, but it is a persistent one.

The Monday effect is a theory which states that returns on the stock market on Mondays will follow the prevailing trend from the previous Friday. Therefore, if the market was up on Friday, it should continue through the weekend and, come Monday, resume its rise. The Monday effect is also known as the “weekend effect.”

On a fundamental level, there is no particular reason that this should be true. Some psychological factors could be at work. Perhaps an end-of-week optimism permeates the market as traders and investors look forward to the weekend. Alternatively, perhaps the weekend gives investors a chance to catch up on their reading, stew and fret about the market, and develop pessimism going into Monday.

Superstitious Indicators

Aside from calendar anomalies, there are some non-market signals that some people believe will accurately indicate the direction of the market. Here is a short list of superstitious market indicators:

• The Super Bowl Indicator: When a team from the old American Football League wins the game, the market will close lower for the year. When an old National Football League team wins, the market will end the year higher. Silly as it may seem, the Super Bowl indicator was correct almost three-quarters of the time over a 53-year period ending in 2021. However, the indicator has one limitation: It contains no allowance for an expansion-team victory!
• The Hemline Indicator: The market rises and falls with the length of skirts. Sometimes this indicator is referred to as the “bare knees, bull market” theory. To its merit, the hemline indicator was accurate in 1987, when designers switched from miniskirts to floor-length skirts just before the market crashed. A similar change also took place in 1929, but many argue as to which came first, the crash or the hemline shifts.
• The Aspirin Indicator: Stock prices and aspirin production are inversely related. This indicator suggests that when the market is rising, fewer people need aspirin to heal market-induced headaches. Lower aspirin sales should indicate a rising market.

What Is Additional Paid-in Capital (APIC)?

Additional paid-in capital (APIC) is an accounting term referring to money an investor pays above and beyond the par value price of a stock.

Often referred to as “contributed capital in excess of par,” APIC occurs when an investor buys newly-issued shares directly from a company during its initial public offering (IPO) stage. APIC, which is itemized under the shareholder equity (SE) section of a balance sheet, is viewed as a profit opportunity for companies as it results in them receiving excess cash from stockholders.

How Additional Paid-in Capital (APIC) Works

During its IPO, a firm is entitled to set any price for its stock that it sees fit. Meanwhile, investors may elect to pay any amount above this declared par value of a share price, which generates the APIC.

Let us assume that during its IPO phase the XYZ Widget Company issues one million shares of stock, with a par value of $1 per share, and that investors bid on shares for $2, $4, and $10 above the par value. Let us further assume that those shares ultimately sell for $11, consequently making the company $11 million. In this instance, the APIC is $10 million ($11 million minus the par value of $1 million). Therefore, the company’s balance sheet itemizes $1 million as “paid-in capital,” and $10 million as “additional paid-in capital.”

Once a stock trades in the secondary market, an investor may pay whatever the market will bear. When investors buy shares directly from a given company, that corporation receives and retains the funds as paid-in capital. But after that time, when investors buy shares in the open market, the generated funds go directly into the pockets of the investors selling off their positions.

Special Considerations

APIC is generally booked in the SE section of the balance sheet. When a company issues stock, there are two entries that take place in the equity section: common stock and APIC. The total cash generated by the IPO is recorded as a debit in the equity section, and the common stock and APIC are recorded as credits.

The APIC formula is:

APIC = (Issue Price – Par Value) x Number of Shares Acquired by Investors.

Par Value

Due to the fact that APIC represents money paid to the company above the par value of a security, it is essential to understand what par actually means. Simply put, “par” signifies the value a company assigns to stock at the time of its IPO, before there is even a market for the security. Issuers traditionally set stock par values deliberately low—in some cases as little as a penny per share—in order to preemptively avoid any potential legal liability, which might occur if the stock dips below its par value.

Market Value

Market value is the actual price a financial instrument is worth at any given time. The stock market determines the real value of a stock, which shifts continuously as shares are bought and sold throughout the trading day. Thus, investors make money on the changing value of a stock over time, based on company performance and investor sentiment.

Additional Paid-in Capital vs. Paid-in Capital

Paid-in capital, or contributed capital, is the full amount of cash or other assets that shareholders have given a company in exchange for stock. Paid-in capital includes the par value of both common and preferred stock plus any amount paid in excess.

Additional paid-in capital, as the name implies, includes only the amount paid in excess of the par value of stock issued during a company’s IPO.

Both of these items are included next to one another in the SE section of the balance sheet.

Benefits of Additional Paid-in Capital

For common stock, paid-in capital consists of a stock’s par value and APIC, the latter of which may provide a substantial portion of a company’s equity capital, before retained earnings begin to accumulate. This capital provides a layer of defense against potential losses, in the event that retained earnings begin to show a deficit. 

Another huge advantage for a company issuing shares is that it does not raise the fixed cost of the company. The company doesn’t have to make any payment to the investor; even dividends are not required. Furthermore, investors do not have any claim on the company’s existing assets.

After issuing stock to shareholders, the company is free to use the funds generated any way it chooses, whether that means paying off loans, purchasing an asset, or any other action that may benefit the company.

Correction—March 29, 2022: A previous version of this article inaccurately represented where APIC appears on the balance sheet.

What Is Average Selling Price (ASP)?

The term average selling price (ASP) refers to the price at which a certain class of good or service is typically sold. The average selling price is affected by the type of product and the product life cycle. The ASP is the average selling price of the product across multiple distribution channels, across a product category within a company, or even across the market as a whole.

Understanding Average Selling Price (ASP)

The average selling price is the price for a product or service in various markets, and is normally used in the retail and technology industries. The established ASP for a particular good can act as a benchmark price, helping other manufacturers, producers, or retailers set the prices for their own products.

Marketers who try to set a price for a product must also consider where they want their product to be positioned. If they want their product image to be part of a high-quality choice, they have to set a higher ASP.

Products like computers, cameras, televisions, and jewelry tend to have higher average selling prices while products like books and DVDs will have a low average selling price. When a product is the latter part of its product life cycle, the market is most likely saturated with competitors, therefore, driving down the ASP.

In order to calculate the ASP, divide the total revenue earned from the product by the total number of units sold. This average selling price is usually reported during quarterly financial results and can be considered as accurate as possible given regulation on fraudulent reporting.

Special Considerations

The smartphone market is a big industry which uses average selling prices. In the smartphone market, the average selling price indicates how much money a handset manufacturer is receiving on average for the phones that it sells.

For product-driven companies like Apple, calculations for average selling price provide pivotal information about its financial performance and, by extension, the performance of its stock price. In fact, there’s a clear relationship between Apple’s iPhone ASP and its stock price movements.

The iPhone’s ASP matters even more when considering how each device drives overall profitability for Apple. Apple consolidates its operations under a single profit-and-loss statement (P&L), meaning investors can’t tell how costs, such as marketing and research and development (R&D) are spread among the company’s various products.

Since the iPhone has the highest gross margin in Apple’s device family, the device generates the lion’s share of Apple’s profits. That makes the iPhone crucial in determining Apple’s overall financial performance each quarter.

Examples of Average Selling Price

The term average selling price has a place in the housing market. When the average selling price of a home within a particular region rises, this may be a signal of a booming market. Conversely, when the average price drops, so does the perception of the market in that particular area.

Some industries use ASP in a slightly different way. The hospitality industry—especially hotels and other lodging companies—commonly refers to it as the average room or average daily rate. These average rates tend to be higher during peak seasons, while rates normally drop when travel seems to be low or during off-seasons.