Posts Tagged ‘Price’

Daily Analysis 20230526

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

May 26th, 2023

Good morning,

The Nasdaq Composite
surged 1.7% in Thursday’s session after stronger-than-expected revenue guidance and an earnings beat from Nvidia
fueled a rally in semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks as well as other technology names. Nvidia shares jumped 24.4% in the session to finish at an all-time high.

Dow……32735 -35.3 -0.11%
Nasdaq12698 *+213.9* +1.71%
S&P 500.4151 +36.04 +0.88%

FTSE…..7571 -56.2 -0.74%
Dax……15794 -48.3 -0.31%
CAC……7229 -24.2 -0.33%

Nikkei…..30801 +118.5 +0.39%
HSI………18747 -369.01 -1.93%
Shanghai.3201 -3.5 -0.11%

IDX…..6704.23 -6.66 -0.70%
LQ45….941.83 -6.66 -0.70%
IDX30…490.21 -3.52 -0.71%

IDXEnergy…1773.97 -35.61 -1.97%
IDX BscMat 1008.47 -13.19 -1.29%
IDX Indstrl…1168.20 -17.65 -1.49%
IDXNONCYC.741.58 +0.41 +0.06%
IDX Hlthcare1478.30 -19.29 -1.29%
IDXCYCLIC…865.99 +2.96 +0.34%.
IDX Techno..4694.88 -65.75 -1.38%
IDX Transp..1854.34 +25.51 +1.39%
IDX Infrast…..824.01 +2.18 +0.27%
IDX Finance.1381.07 -0.97 -0.07%
IDX Banking.1158.97+3.19 +0.28%
IDX Property…..728 +2.90 +0.40%

*Indo10Yr.6.5440 -0.0096 -0.15%👍*
*ICBI..361.7032 +0.2186+0.06%👍*
*US2Yr.4.3230 +0.2030 +4.68%‼️*
*US5Yr 3.9180 +0.1010 +2.65%*
*US10Yr3.8190 +0.0760 +2.03%*
*US30Yr.3.9930*+0.0100 +0.25%
*VIX……19.14 -0.89 -4.44%*

*USDIndx104.2510‼️ +0.3640 +0.35%*
Como Indx.258.49 -4.21 -1.60%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN……140.48 +1.10 +0.79%

*IndoCDS.90.13👍* -0.98 -1.08.%
(5-yr INOCD5) *(24/05)*

*IDR…..14953.00‼️ +53.00 +0.36%*
*Jisdor.14952.00‼️ +47.00 +0.32%*

*Euro……1.0749‼️ -0.0024 -0.22%*

*TLKM..27.32 -0.36 -1.30%*
*(4085)*
EIDO….23.66 -0.04 -0.17%
EEM…..38.32 -0.08 -0.21%

*Oil…..74.13 -2.26 -3.05%‼️*
*Gold…1961.30 -17.10 -0.86%*
*Timah..23865.00* -355.00 -1.46%
*(Closed 24/05)*
*Nickel..21114.50* +332.00 +1.60%
(Closed 25/05)
Silver……22.83 -0.35 -1.51%
Copper…359.25 +2.50 +0.70%

*Iron Ore 62% 105.56 -0.98 -0.92%*
(24/05)
*Nturl Gas.2.454 -0.134 -5.17%‼️*

Coal price.160.00 -0.25 -0.16%
(May/Newcastle)
*Coal price.140.50 -9.50 -6.33%‼️*
(Jun/Newcastle)
*Coal price.139.00 -6.50 -4.47%‼️*
(Jul/Newcastle)
*Coal price.140.65 -6.95 -4.71%‼️*
(Agt/Newcastle)

Coal price.118.65 +0.25 +0.21%
(May/Rotterdam)
*Coal price..99.50 -3.50 -3.40%‼️*
(Jun/ Rotterdam)
*Coal price..94.00 -3.60 -3.69%‼️*
(Jul/Rotterdam)
*Coal price..94.00 -3.60 -3.72%‼️*
(Agt/Rotterdam)

*CPO(Agt)..3498 +92.00 +2.70%*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……577.00 +6.50 +1.14%
*SoybeanOil 47.76 -1.01 -2.07%*
*Wheat……622.25 +16.00 +2.64%*

*Wood pulp..4170.00* +30 +0.72%
(Closed 25/05)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_
*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

Nasdaq ijo tebel walau DJI merah tipis, europe asia kebanyakan merah, semoga lanjut ijo hari ini

USD index lanjut naik lagi, kebanyakan metal lanjut merah lagi kecuali nikel sama copper. Oil gas coalmerah semua, energy lanjut nyungsep

IHSG – stoch up macd balum buy, BD flat FNB walau tambah turun vol nya. closing dibawah fibo 23 lagi, semoga ga beneran break ke bawah

Healthcare Industrials

Stchastic Buy Signal banyak, energy masih skip dulu, kita check ANTM BRIS SCMA SIDO

MACD Buy Signal: MEDC, TBIG TLKM TOWR DSNG MLPL TOBA

Alligator Buy Signal: BBCA ERAA

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Debunking 8 Myths About Technical Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Some traders and investors denounce technical analysis (TA) as a superficial study of charts and patterns without any concrete, conclusive or profitable results. Others believe it is a sort of Holy Grail that once mastered will unleash sizable profits. These opposing viewpoints have led to misconceptions about technical analysis and how it is used.  

Technical analysis tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities. Contrary to fundamental analysis, technical analysts do not necessarily care much about the companies behind the stocks they trade or their profitability.

Some misconceptions about technical analysis are based on education and training. For example, a trader trained in using only fundamentals may not trust technical analysis at all. But that doesn’t mean someone who is trained in technical analysis can’t use it profitably.

Other TA assumptions are based on bad experiences. For example, the incorrect use of technical indicators often leads to losses. That doesn’t mean the method is necessarily wrong; possibly the person just needs more practice and training. The negative sentiment can be perpetuated by unscrupulous marketing, promising overnight riches if a simple TA indicator is bought and used. It rarely is that easy.

Here are eight common technical analysis myths—and why they simply aren’t true. 

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analysis (TA) tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities.
  • Many opponents of TA subscribe to myths about the strategy.
  • Common myths about TA include it being only for day trading and only used by individual traders.
  • Other myths include the idea that TA is quick and easy, with all decisions made by software.
  • Some erroneously expect TA to make precise price predictions and be equally appropriate across all financial markets.

1. Technical Analysis Is Only for Short-Term Trading or Day Trading

It is a common myth that technical analysis is only appropriate for short-term and computer-driven trading like day trading and high-frequency trades. Technical analysis existed and was practiced before computers were common, and some of the pioneers in technical analysis were long-term investors and traders, not day traders. Technical analysis is used by traders on all time frames, from one-minute charts to weekly and monthly charts.

2. Only Individual Traders Use Technical Analysis 

While individuals do use technical analysis, hedge funds and investment banks make ample use of technical analysis as well. Investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis. High-frequency trading, which encompasses a significant amount of the trading volume on the stock exchanges, is heavily dependent on technical concepts. 

3. Technical Analysis Has a Low Success Rate

A look at the list of successful market traders, who have decades of trading experience, debunks this myth. Successful trader interviews have cited significant numbers of traders who owe their success to technical analysis and patterns. For example, Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders (Wiley, 2012) by Jack D. Schwager features interviews with many professionals who’ve profited solely by using technical analysis.

4. Technical Analysis Is Quick and Easy 

The internet is full of technical analysis courses that promise trading success. Though many individuals enter the trading world by placing their first trade based on simple technical indicators, continued success in trading requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline. It requires dedicated time, knowledge, and attention. Technical analysis is only a tool, only one piece of the puzzle.

5. Ready-Made Technical Analysis Software Can Help Traders Make Easy Money 

Unfortunately, this is not true. There are many online ads for cheap and costly software that claims to do all your analysis for you. In addition, less-experienced traders sometimes confuse technical analysis tools in broker-provided trading software for trading models that will guarantee profit. Though technical analysis software provides insights about trends and patterns, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee profits. It’s up to the trader to correctly interpret trends and data.

6. Technical Indicators Can Be Applied Across All Markets

While technical analysis can be applied to many markets, specific asset classes have specific requirements. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and bonds all have differences. There may be time-dependent patterns like high volatility in futures and options nearing expiry, or seasonal patterns in commodities. Don’t make the mistake of applying technical indicators intended for one asset class to another.

7. Technical Analysis Can Provide Precise Price Predictions 

Many novices expect recommendations from technical analysts or software patterns to be 100% precise. For example, inexperienced traders may expect a prediction as specific as, “stock ABC will reach $62 in two months.” However, experienced technical analysts usually avoid quoting prices so specifically. Rather they tend to quote a range such as, “stock A could move in the range of $59 to $64 in the next two to three months.”

Traders betting their money on technical recommendations should be aware that technical analysis provides a predictive range, not an exact number. Technical analysis is also about probability and likelihoods, not guarantees. If something works more often than not, even though it doesn’t work all the time, it can still be very effective at generating profits.

8. The Winning Rate in Technical Analysis Should Be Higher

It’s a common myth that a high percentage of winning trades is needed for profitability. However, that is not always the case. Assume Peter makes four winning trades out of five, while Molly makes one winning trade out of five. Who is more successful? Most people would say Peter, but we don’t actually know until we get more information. Profitability is a combination of win rate and risk/reward. If Peter makes $20 on his winners but is down $80 from his one loss, he ends up with $0. If Molly makes $50 on her win and losses $10 on her losses, she walks away with $10. She is better off, even with fewer wins. Proper trade structuring allows for profitability even with few winners

The Bottom Line

Technical analysis provides a large basket of tools and concepts for trading. There are successful traders who don’t use it, and there are successful traders who do. Some believe technical analysis is the best way to trade, while others claim it is misguided and lacks a theoretical basis.

Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn’t guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.

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Daily Analysis 20230410

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 10th, 2023

Good morning,

US, Europe, and Asian markets on holiday due to Good Friday

Dow……33485 closed +0%
Nasdaq12088 closed +0%
S&P 500.4105 closed +0%

FTSE…..7742 closed +0%
Dax……15598 closed +0%
CAC……7325 closes +0%

Nikkei…..27518 +45.7 +0.17%
HSI………20331 closed +0%
Shanghai.3327 +15.02 +0.45%

IDX…..6792.77 closed +0%
LQ45….937.20 closed +0%
IDX30…488.25 closed +0%

IDXEnergy…2110.30 closed +0%
IDX BscMat 1156.25 closed +0%
IDX Indstrl…1183.33 closed +0%
IDXNONCYC.711.75 closed +0%
IDX Hlthcare1498.62 closed +0%
IDXCYCLIC…..819.43 closed +0%
IDX Techno..4952.41 closed +0%
IDX Transp..1773.31 closed +0%
IDX Infrast…..802.66 closed +0%
IDX Finance.1389.60 closed +0%
IDX Banking.1140.96 closed +0%
IDX Property…687 closed +0%

Indo10Yr.6.7561 closed +0%
ICBI…..354.4280 closed +0
*US2Yr.3.9930 +0.1641 +4.29%‼️
US5Yr 3.5161 +0.1423 +4.22%‼️
US10Yr3.4130 +0.1100 +3.33%‼️
US30Yr.3.6230+0.0750 +2.11%
VIX…… 18.40 closed +0%

USDIndx102.0560 -0.0360 -0.04%
Como Indx.271.99 closed +0%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…154.87 closed +0%

IndoCDS..91.610 -0.010 -0.01%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/04)

IDR…..14912.00 closed +0%
Jisdor.14943.00 closed +0%

Euro……1.0909 -0.0008 -0.07%

TLKM….28.37 closed +0%
(4239)
EIDO……23.62 closed +0%
EEM……39.39 closed +0%

Oil……80.97 +0.27 +0.33%
Gold.2020.60 -5.80 -0.29%
Timah..24308.00 +61.00 +0.25%
(Closed 06/04)
Nickel..23073.00 closed. +0%
(Closed 07/04)
Silver……25.11 +0.01 +0.05%
Copper…402.00 +0.40 +0.11%

Nturl Gas.2.021 -0.015 -0.74%

Ammonia 3700.00 -83.33 +2.15%
China
(Domestic Price)(04/05)

Coal price.193.75 closed +0%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.203.25 closed +0%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.208.65 closed +0%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.211.20 closed +0%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.135.10 closed +0%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.131.95 closed +0%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.00 closed +0%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.85 closed +0%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3800 -24 +0.63%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..643.50 closed +0%
SoybeanOil54.53 closed +0%
Wheat…..676.50 closed +0%

Wood pulp..4860.00 unch +0%
(Closed 09/04)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Jum’at pada libur paskah, asia yang buka kecuali IDX dan pada ijo

Oil ijo gas merah coal closed, metal2 ijo tipis kecuali gold yang merah. cpo ijo

Gold Price 4 hari merah, harus dipantau ketat ANTM MDKA for early reversal.

IHSG – stpch buy, macd masih up, mfi up, BD dist FF masih acc terus, masih positive outlook kalo gini, bandar lokal aja lagi profit taking kayanya. Masih optimis akan finish pattern double bottom

Masih Energy Leading, lanjut Property, Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, Transportation, Basic Materials, Technology. Begitu financials mulai gerak lagi harusnya index juga jalan lagi. Industrials sama Infrastructure mulai gerak

Stoch Buy Signal: BBRI. Yang lain banyak banget yang sell ikutan index

MACD Buy Signal: ERAA EKAD

Alligator Buy Signal: ADRO INCO AGII ELSA MBSS

Supertrend Buy Signal: ERAA JSMR

BBRI – masih sideways sih, tunggu breakout aja

ERAA – supertrend buy, vol breakout, MACD ngebalik buy lagi, BD FF acc, MFI up, w% uptrend, breakout CNH, agak ketinggian sih harga sekarang, tapi harusnya otw fibo 61

Spike belum, kalo buat ngejar tapi ga ada spike signfificant ga berani ah

udah diatas average bandar, kalo mau safe tunggu spike atau harga ke 500, dengan resiko ketinggalan kereta… Tapi better safe than sorry kan

EKAD skip

ADRO – lagi slow down, FNS, stoch almost sell, macd masih up, 833 sell, tunggu 833 buy lagi. Udah naik 20%, wajarnya koreksi dulu

ELSA – harga minyak masih naik, OPEC cut production, stoch sell, macd rev down, FF acc, BD dist, MFI sw, w% sw, lagi di fibo 23, HOLD, watch MACD

MBSS – udah beres gorengannya, skip

INCO – biarkan bikin higher low dulu, next swing baru ikutan

JSMR – udah ketinggian, entry pas MACD sekarang harusnya pullback dulu, wns

 

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Daily Analysis 20230403

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 03rd, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Dow……33274 +415.1 +1.25%
Nasdaq12222 +208.4 +1.74%
S&P 500.4109 +58.5. +1.44%

FTSE…..7632 +11.3 +0.16%
Dax…..15629. +106.4 +0.69%
CAC……7322 +59.02 +0.81%

Nikkei…..28042 +258.6 +0.93%
HSI………20400 +90.98 +0.49%
Shanghai.3273 +11.6 +0.36%

IDX…..6805.28 -3.67 -0.06%
LQ45….937.68 -1.93 -0.20%
IDX30…488.29 -1.07 -0.22%

IDXEnergy…2103.64 +17.36 +0.83%
IDX BscMat 1183.75 +1.40 +0.12%
IDX Indstrl…1185.57 +8.39 +0.71%
IDXNONCYC.731.64 -3.08 -0.42%
IDX Hlthcare1540.65 +4.38 +0.29%
IDXCYCLIC…..822.32 -3.30 -0.40%
IDX Techno..5100.73 -37.97 -0.74%
IDX Transp..1789.36 -10.46 -0.58%
IDX Infrast…..808.84 -1.70 -0.21%
IDX Finance.1385.82 +1.72 +0.12%
IDX Banking.1136.13 -1.14 -0.10%
IDX Property…686 +4.2 +0.62%

Indo10Yr.6.7956 -0.0126 -0.19%👍
ICBI…..353.1919 +0.3423 +0.10%👍
US2Yr.4.0376 -0.0839 -2.03%
US5Yr 3.5836 -0.0966 -2.62%
US10Yr3.4730 -0.0740 -2.08%
US30Yr.3.4730-0.0790 -2.11%
VIX…… 19.02 -0.10 -0.52%

USDIndx102.1660 -0.4899 -0.47%
Como Indx.267.73 +3.35 +1.27%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…159.99 +0.95 +0.59%

IndoCDS..95.060 -3.950 -3.99%👍
(5-yr INOCD5) (03/31)

IDR…..14995.50 -51.50 -0.34%👍
Jisdor.14977.00 -85.00 -0.56%👍

Euro……1.0839 -0.0068 -0.62%

TLKM….27.27 -0.16 -0.58%
(4084)
EIDO……23.53 +0.02 +0.09%
EEM……39.46 -0.05 -0.13%

Oil……75.67 +1.30 +1.75%
Gold.1986.20 -11.50 -0.58%
Timah 25835.00 -81.00 -0.31%
(Closed 03/31)
Nickel..23744.50 +652.00 +2.82%
(Closed 03/31)
Silver…..24.16 +0.17 +0.70%
Copper..409.45 +0.30 +0.07%

Nturl Gas.2.166 +0.062 +2.94%

Ammonia 3966.67 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(03/29)

Coal price.193.00 +5.50 +2.93%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.199.50 +4.00 +2.25%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.205.70 +5.70 +2.85%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price..208.15 +6.90 +3.43%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.137.90 +0.15 +0.11%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.137.00 -1.55 -1.12%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 133.25 -2.25 -1.66%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 132.70 -1.60 -1.19%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3758 -33 -0.87%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..660.50 +11.00 +1.69%
SoybeanOil.55.49 +1.12 +2.06%
Wheat…..692.25 unch +0%

Wood pulp…5080.00 unch +0%
(Closed 04/01)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Semua closing hijau jum’at, IHSG harusnya ijo lagi hari ini

Oil Gas Coal lanjut ijo, Metal2 tipis2 merah dan ijo kecuali nikel yang rebound, ANTM MDKA minor pullback dulu, INCO kita liat, CPO merah lagi

Coal Price belum terlihat firm reversal, walau dari supertrend dan macd sudah bilang up

IHSG – stoch mulai oversold, 833 sell, macd masih up, mungkin minor pullback or sideways dulu sebelum ngejar test resistance neckline double bottom, tapi yang bikin tenang MFI masih up, BD FF acc, w% masih uptrend

Energy leading, Basic Materials, Transportation, Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, sama yang keliatan mau jalan Technology. Consumer Non-Cyclicals anehnya di minggu kedua ramadhan malah melemah, mungkin mau lari lagi di deket lebaran

Stochastic Buy Signal: LMSH

MACD buy signal: ASII INTP PTBA SCMA LPPF

Alligator Buy SIgnal: AMRT BBCA CTRA ERAA

Supertrend Buy Signal: INCO ADMR PWON

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