Posts Tagged ‘Line’

Average Collection Period Formula, How It Works, Example

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

[ad_1]

What Is an Average Collection Period?

Average collection period refers to the amount of time it takes for a business to receive payments owed by its clients in terms of accounts receivable (AR). Companies use the average collection period to make sure they have enough cash on hand to meet their financial obligations. The average collection period is an indicator of the effectiveness of a firm’s AR management practices and is an important metric for companies that rely heavily on receivables for their cash flows.

Key Takeaways

  • The average collection period refers to the length of time a business needs to collect its accounts receivables.
  • Companies calculate the average collection period to ensure they have enough cash on hand to meet their financial obligations.
  • The average collection period is determined by dividing the average AR balance by the total net credit sales and multiplying that figure by the number of days in the period.
  • This period indicates the effectiveness of a company’s AR management practices.
  • A low average collection period indicates that an organization collects payments faster.

How Average Collection Periods Work

Accounts receivable is a business term used to describe money that entities owe to a company when they purchase goods and/or services. Companies normally make these sales to their customers on credit. AR is listed on corporations’ balance sheets as current assets and measures their liquidity. As such, they indicate their ability to pay off their short-term debts without the need to rely on additional cash flows.

The average collection period is an accounting metric used to represent the average number of days between a credit sale date and the date when the purchaser remits payment. A company’s average collection period is indicative of the effectiveness of its AR management practices. Businesses must be able to manage their average collection period to operate smoothly.

A lower average collection period is generally more favorable than a higher one. A low average collection period indicates that the organization collects payments faster. However, this may mean that the company’s credit terms are too strict. Customers who don’t find their creditors’ terms very friendly may choose to seek suppliers or service providers with more lenient payment terms.

Formula for Average Collection Period

Average collection period is calculated by dividing a company’s average accounts receivable balance by its net credit sales for a specific period, then multiplying the quotient by 365 days.

Average Collection Period = 365 Days * (Average Accounts Receivables / Net Credit Sales)

Alternatively and more commonly, the average collection period is denoted as the number of days of a period divided by the receivables turnover ratio. The formula below is also used referred to as the days sales receivable ratio.

Average Collection Period = 365 Days / Receivables Turnover Ratio

The average receivables turnover is simply the average accounts receivable balance divided by net credit sales; the formula below is simply a more concise way of writing the formula.

Average Accounts Receivables

For the formulas above, average accounts receivable is calculated by taking the average of the beginning and ending balances of a given period. More sophisticated accounting reporting tools may be able to automate a company’s average accounts receivable over a given period by factoring in daily ending balances.

When analyzing average collection period, be mindful of the seasonality of the accounts receivable balances. For example, analyzing a peak month to a slow month by result in a very inconsistent average accounts receivable balance that may skew the calculated amount.

Net Credit Sales

Average collection period also relies on net credit sales for a period. This metric should exclude cash sales (as those are not made on credit and therefore do not have a collection period).

In addition to being limited to only credit sales, net credit sales exclude residual transactions that impact and often reduce sales amounts. This includes any discounts awarded to customers, product recalls or returns, or items re-issued under warranty.

When calculating average collection period, ensure the same timeframe is being used for both net credit sales and average receivables. For example, if analyzing a company’s full year income statement, the beginning and ending receivable balances pulled from the balance sheet must match the same period.

Importance of Average Collection Period

Average collection period boils down to a single number; however, it has many different uses and communicates a variety of important information.

  • It tells how efficiently debts are collected. This is important because a credit sale is not fully completed until the company has been paid. Until cash has been collected, a company is yet to reap the full benefit of the transaction.
  • It tells how strict credit terms are. This is important as strict credit terms may scare clients away; on the other hand, credit terms that are too loose may attract customers looking to take advantage of lenient payment terms.
  • It tells how competitors are performing. This is important because all figures needed to calculate the average collection period are available for public companies. This gives deeper insight into what other companies are doing and how a company’s operations compare.
  • It tells early signals of bad allowances. This is important because as the average collection period increases, more clients are taking longer to pay. This metric can be used to signal to management to review its outstanding receivables at risk of being uncollected to ensure clients are being monitored and communicated with.
  • It tells of a company’s short-term financial health. This is important because without cash collections, a company will go insolvent and lack the liquidity to pay its short-term bills.

How to Use Average Collection Period

The average collection period does not hold much value as a stand-alone figure. Instead, you can get more out of its value by using it as a comparative tool.

The best way that a company can benefit is by consistently calculating its average collection period and using it over time to search for trends within its own business. The average collection period may also be used to compare one company with its competitors, either individually or grouped together. Similar companies should produce similar financial metrics, so the average collection period can be used as a benchmark against another company’s performance.

Companies may also compare the average collection period with the credit terms extended to customers. For example, an average collection period of 25 days isn’t as concerning if invoices are issued with a net 30 due date. However, an ongoing evaluation of the outstanding collection period directly affects the organization’s cash flows.

The average collection period is often not an externally required figure to be reported. It is also generally not included as a financial covenant. The usefulness of average collection period is to inform management of its operations.

Example of Average Collection Period

As noted above, the average collection period is calculated by dividing the average balance of AR by total net credit sales for the period, then multiplying the quotient by the number of days in the period.

Let’s say a company has an average AR balance for the year of $10,000. The total net sales that the company recorded during this period was $100,000. We would use the following average collection period formula to calculate the period:

($10,000 ÷ $100,000) × 365 = Average Collection Period

class=”ql-syntax”>

The average collection period, therefore, would be 36.5 days. This is not a bad figure, considering most companies collect within 30 days. Collecting its receivables in a relatively short and reasonable period of time gives the company time to pay off its obligations.

If this company’s average collection period was longer—say, more than 60 days— then it would need to adopt a more aggressive collection policy to shorten that time frame. Otherwise, it may find itself falling short when it comes to paying its own debts.

Accounts Receivable (AR) Turnover

The average collection period is closely related to the accounts turnover ratio, which is calculated by dividing total net sales by the average AR balance.

Using the previous example, the AR turnover is 10 ($100,000 ÷ $10,000). The average collection period can also be calculated by dividing the number of days in the period by the AR turnover. In this example, the average collection period is the same as before: 36.5 days.

365 days ÷ 10 = Average Collection Period

class=”ql-syntax”>

Collections by Industries

Not all businesses deal with credit and cash in the same way. Although cash on hand is important to every business, some rely more on their cash flow than others.

For example, the banking sector relies heavily on receivables because of the loans and mortgages that it offers to consumers. As it relies on income generated from these products, banks must have a short turnaround time for receivables. If they have lax collection procedures and policies in place, then income would drop, causing financial harm.

Real estate and construction companies also rely on steady cash flows to pay for labor, services, and supplies. These industries don’t necessarily generate income as readily as banks, so it’s important that those working in these industries bill at appropriate intervals, as sales and construction take time and may be subject to delays.

Why Is the Average Collection Period Important?

The average collection period indicates the effectiveness of a firm’s accounts receivable management practices. It is very important for companies that heavily rely on their receivables when it comes to their cash flows. Businesses must manage their average collection period if they want to have enough cash on hand to fulfill their financial obligations.

How Is the Average Collection Period Calculated?

In order to calculate the average collection period, divide the average balance of accounts receivable by the total net credit sales for the period. Then multiply the quotient by the total number of days during that specific period.

So if a company has an average accounts receivable balance for the year of $10,000 and total net sales of $100,000, then the average collection period would be (($10,000 ÷ $100,000) × 365), or 36.5 days.

Why Is a Lower Average Collection Period Better?

Companies prefer a lower average collection period over a higher one as it indicates that a business can efficiently collect its receivables.

The drawback to this is that it may indicate the company’s credit terms are too strict. Stricter terms may result in a loss of customers to competitors with more lenient payment terms.

How Can a Company Improve its Average Collection Period?

A company can improve its average collection period in a few ways. It can set stricter credit terms limiting the number of days an invoice is allowed to be outstanding. This may also include limiting the number of clients it offers credit to in an effort to increase cash sales. It can also offer pricing discounts for earlier payment (i.e. 2% discount if paid in 10 days).

The Bottom Line

The average collection period is the average number of days it takes for a credit sale to be collected. During this period, the company is awarding its customer a very short-term “loan”; the sooner the client can collect the loan, the earlier it will have the capital to use to grow its company or pay its invoices. While a shorter average collection period is often better, too strict of credit terms may scare customers away.

[ad_2]

Source link

Attorney-in-Fact: Definition, Types, Powers and Duties

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Attorney-in-Fact: Definition, Types, Powers and Duties

[ad_1]

What Is an Attorney-in-Fact?

An attorney-in-fact, also called an “agent,” is a person who is authorized to act on behalf of another person, known as the “principal,” typically to perform business or other official transactions. The principal usually designates someone as their attorney-in-fact by assigning them power of attorney, although a court may choose to assign it if the person being represented is incapacitated. The rules regulating power of attorney vary from state to state.

An attorney-in-fact is not necessarily a lawyer. Indeed, attorneys-in-fact don’t require any special qualifications at all. They can be a family member or close friend. Power of attorney may also be granted to more than one person. In such a case it should be stated whether a simple majority or unanimity is required for an action to be taken.

Key Takeaways

  • An attorney-in-fact is someone who is designated to act on behalf of another person, whether in business, financial, or personal matters.
  • An attorney-in-fact is designated through the granting of power of attorney, usually by the person who will be represented.
  • An attorney-in-fact need not be an attorney-at-law, which is another name for “lawyer.” The former makes decisions for a principal, while the latter advises and represents a client but is not involved in decision-making.
  • The person appointing the attorney-in-fact is called the “principal,” and the attorney-in-fact is sometimes referred to as the “agent.”
  • Sometimes the courts can assign an individual power of attorney for another person if they have become incapacitated.

Attorney-in-Fact and Power of Attorney

An attorney-in-fact is a person who has been legally appointed to act on behalf of another person in a legal or business matter. The person appointing the attorney-in-fact is called the “principal,” and the attorney-in-fact is sometimes referred to as the “agent.”

An attorney-in-fact is usually appointed through a legal document called a power of attorney (POA). This document gives the attorney-in-fact the authority to make decisions and take actions on behalf of the principal in a variety of legal and financial matters. For example, an attorney-in-fact might be given the power to sign documents, manage a bank account, or sell property on behalf of the principal.

The attorney-in-fact is not required to be an actual lawyer, but they must act in the best interests of the principal and follow any instructions or guidelines set forth in the power of attorney. The attorney-in-fact is also required to keep the principal’s affairs confidential and to keep records of all actions taken on behalf of the principal.

It’s important to note that an attorney-in-fact is not the same as a lawyer or an attorney. A lawyer is a professional who is licensed to practice law, while an attorney-in-fact is simply a person who has been given the authority to act on behalf of another person.

Attorneys are trained in the legal system and are responsible for representing clients in legal matters, such as in court or in negotiations with other parties. Attorneys are also responsible for giving legal advice and guidance to their clients.

An attorney-in-fact, on the other hand, is any person who has been appointed to act on behalf of another person in a legal or business matter.

Types of Power of Attorney

There are two basic types of power of attorney (POA) granted to attorneys-in-fact.

  • General – General power of attorney grants the attorney-in-fact not only the right to conduct any business and sign any documents on behalf of the principal, but to make decisions, including financial decisions, on their behalf.
  • Limited – Under a limited power of attorney assignment, also sometimes known as “special power of attorney,” the attorney-in-fact can be authorized to conduct certain transactions and make some decisions but not others. They are limited to the topics specified in the assigning document.

Anyone assigning power of attorney should take care to choose someone they trust.

The Powers and Duties of an Attorney-in-Fact

If the attorney-in-fact is designated as a general power of attorney, they are allowed to conduct any actions that the principal would reasonably take. This means an attorney-in-fact would be able to open and close bank accounts, withdraw funds, trade stocks, pay bills, and cash checks—all on behalf of the principal.

With a limited power of attorney, the attorney-in-fact is granted broad powers in one or more areas but not others. For example, the attorney-in-fact could be authorized to carry out transactions at the direction of the principal but not to make business or financial decisions. It could also be narrower, such as only granting the right to sign documents related to the pending sale of a specific piece of property.

Attorney-in-Fact vs. Attorney-at-Law

As noted above, an attorney-in-fact need not be a lawyer. And another term for “lawyer” is “attorney-at-law.” If you have passed a state bar exam and are thus legally qualified in that state to prosecute and defend actions in a court on behalf of a client who has retained you, then you are an attorney-at-law.

Their functions are also different. An attorney-in-fact must make decisions for their principal, while an attorney-at-law makes no decisions for their client. Instead, they offer advice to their client and can represent them in the courtroom.

When a power of attorney is deemed “durable,” it continues even after the principal becomes incapacitated, an event that would normally terminate it.

Durable Power of Attorney

A power of attorney generally terminates when a person dies, becomes incapacitated, or consciously chooses to revoke it via a notice filed in court. It can also end if it has a set date or its purpose has been accomplished. However, if it has been designated as a “durable” power of attorney, the attorney-in-fact retains the power of attorney should a principal become incapacitated. In such a situation the attorney-in-fact can continue to make decisions for the principal, including in matters of finance and healthcare.

Durable power of attorney can be granted ahead of time on condition that it only takes effect due to a triggering event, such as when the principal becomes incapacitated. This is also called a “springing” power of attorney. In this case it is a good idea to name one or more successors, as the original designee may be unavailable or, due to changed circumstances, be unwilling to assume the responsibility of becoming an attorney-in-fact.

Why Do You Need an Attorney-in-Fact?

There can be a variety of reasons to designate an attorney-in-fact. It can simply be for convenience, if, for example, you are buying or selling an asset and it is a burden for you to appear in person to close the deal. It can also be for cases in which you cannot act for yourself, whether due to physical or mental incapacity or something less serious, such as travel, illness, or accident.

Does an Attorney-in-Fact Need to Be a Lawyer?

No. An attorney-in-fact can be anyone you wish to designate as such. Often they are a family member or close friend. That said, there is nothing to prevent you from choosing a lawyer, also known as an “attorney-at-law,” as your attorney-in-fact.

What’s the Difference Between an Attorney and Attorney-in-Fact?

It’s important to note that an attorney-in-fact is not the same as a lawyer or an attorney. A lawyer is a professional who is licensed to practice law, while an attorney-in-fact is simply a person who has been given the authority to act on behalf of another person.

Are Power of Attorney and Attorney-in-Fact the Same Thing?

Absolutely not. An attorney-in-fact is someone to whom you consent to give your power of attorney. When making decisions on your behalf, the attorney-in-fact is usually required to show the written document providing power of attorney as proof of their authority.

What Are the Liabilities of Being an Attorney-in-Fact?

As an attorney-in-fact, you are legally responsible for carrying out the duties and responsibilities assigned to you by the principal. This means that you have a legal obligation to act in the best interests of the principal and to follow the instructions and guidelines set forth in the power of attorney. If you fail to fulfill your duties as an attorney-in-fact, you may be held liable for any damages or losses that result from your actions or inactions. For example, if you make a financial decision on behalf of the principal that results in a loss of money, you may be held financially responsible for that loss.

Additionally, you may be held liable for any actions you take on behalf of the principal that are outside the scope of the power of attorney. For example, if the power of attorney specifically states that you are not authorized to sell the principal’s property, but you go ahead and sell it anyway, you could be held liable for any losses that the principal incurs as a result of the sale. To avoid potential liability, it’s important to carefully review the power of attorney and make sure you fully understand your responsibilities as an attorney-in-fact. You should also seek legal guidance if you have any questions or concerns about your duties as an attorney-in-fact.

The Bottom Line

An attorney-in-fact is someone who is granted authority to make decisions on behalf of another person, known as the “principal.” Such authority is granted via a written document providing power of attorney to the attorney-in-fact. Power of attorney can be either general or limited to certain specified transactions and topics. Typically, it only lapses if the principal dies, becomes incapacitated, or consciously revokes it through a notice filed in court. However, if it is a durable power of attorney, the attorney-in-fact will continue to serve if the principal becomes incapacitated.

Making a decision to appoint an attorney-in-fact should not be done lightly, and the person so designated should be a person or persons (you can appoint more than one) whom you trust. Family members and close friends are popular choices. If you appoint more than one, be sure to specify if decisions can be made by majority vote or must be unanimous.

[ad_2]

Source link

501(c) Organization: What They Are, Types, and Examples

Written by admin. Posted in #, Financial Terms Dictionary

[ad_1]

What Is 501(c)?

501(c) is a designation under the United States Internal Revenue Code (IRC) that confers tax-exempt status on nonprofit organizations. Specifically, it identifies which nonprofit organizations are exempt from paying federal income tax.

The government offers this tax break to promote the presence of organizations that exist purely for the public good and help them stay afloat. Common tax-exempt organizations include charities, government entities, advocacy groups, educational and artistic groups, and religious entities. 

Key Takeaways

  • Section 501(c) of the Internal Revenue Code designates certain types of organizations as tax-exempt—they pay no federal income tax.
  • Common tax-exempt organizations include charities, government entities, advocacy groups, educational and artistic groups, and religious entities. 
  • The 501(c)(3) organization is probably the most familiar entity.
  • Donations to certain qualified tax-exempt organizations may be deductible from a taxpayer’s income.

Watch Now: What Is a 501(c) Organization?

Types of 501(c) Organizations

Under subsection 501(c), there are multiple sections that delineate the different types of tax-exempt organizations, according to their purpose and operations.

The most common include:

  • 501(c)(1): Any corporation that is organized under an act of Congress that is exempt from federal income tax
  • 501(c)(2): Corporations that hold a title of property for exempt organizations
  • 501(c)(3): Corporations, funds, or foundations that operate for religious, charitable, scientific, literary, or educational purposes
  • 501(c)(4): Nonprofit organizations that promote social welfare
  • 501(c)(5): Labor, agricultural, or horticultural associations
  • 501(c)(6): Business leagues, chambers of commerce, etc., that are not organized for profit
  • 501(c)(7): Recreational organizations

Groups that might fit the designated categories must still apply for classification as 501(c) organizations and meet all of the stipulations required by the IRS. Tax exemption is not automatic, regardless of the nature of the organization.

501(c)(3) Organizations

The 501(c)(3) organization is probably the most familiar tax category outlined in Section 501(c)(3) of the IRC. It covers the sort of nonprofits that people commonly come into contact with, and donate money to (see Special Considerations, below).

In general, there are three types of entities that are eligible for 501(c)(3) status: charitable organizations, churches/religious entities, and private foundations. 

Other Types of 501(c) Organizations

The 501(c) designation has expanded over time to encompass more types of organizations.

Other organizations that qualify for listing under this designation can potentially include:

  • Fraternal beneficiary societies that operate under the lodge system and provide for the payment of life, illness, and other benefits for their members and dependents
  • Teacher’s retirement fund associations, so long as they are local in nature and none of their net earnings grow for the benefit of a private shareholder
  • Benevolent life insurance associations that are local
  • Certain mutual cooperative electric and telephone companies
  • Nonprofit, co-op health insurers
  • Cemetery companies that are owned and operated for the exclusive benefit of their members or are not operated for profit
  • Credit unions that do not have capital stock organized
  • Insurers—aside from life insurance companies—with gross receipts that are less than $600,000
  • A variety of trusts for such purposes as providing supplement unemployment benefits and pensions
  • Organizations whose membership is made up of current and former members of the armed forces of the United States or their spouses, widows, descendants, and auxiliary units in their support

Tax-exempt organizations must file certain documents to maintain their status, as explained in IRS Publication 557.

Tax-Deductible Donations to 501(c) Organizations

In addition to being tax-exempt themselves, 501(c) organizations offer a tax advantage to others: A portion of donations they receive may be deductible from a taxpayer’s adjusted gross income (AGI). Organizations falling under section 501(c)(3)—which are primarily charities and educational or social-welfare-orientated nonprofits—are often qualified to offer this benefit to donors.

In general, an individual who itemizes deductions on their tax return may deduct contributions to most charitable organizations up to 50% (60% for cash contributions) of their AGI computed without regard to net operating loss carrybacks. Individuals generally may deduct charitable contributions to other organizations up to 30% of their AGI.

A charity or nonprofit must have 501(c)3 status if you plan to deduct your donation to it on your federal tax return. The organization itself can often tell you which sorts of donations are deductible, and to what extent—for example, if you buy a one-year museum membership for $100, $50 might be deductible.

What Is the Meaning of 501(c) Organization?

If an organization is labeled 501(c), it means it is a nonprofit organization concerned with providing a public benefit and is exempt from paying federal income taxes. The 501(c) designation encompasses many types of organizations, including charities, government entities, advocacy groups, educational and artistic groups, and religious entities. 

What Is the Difference Between a 501(c) and a 501(c)(3)?

501(c) and 501(c)(3) are two different tax categories in the Internal Revenue Code. Both are nonprofit organizations exempt from federal income tax. However, a 501(c)(3)—which consists of charitable organizations, churches/religious entities, and private foundations—can also tell its donors that they can deduct their contributions on their tax returns.

What Are the Types of Nonprofits?

The IRS has issued a long list of the type of nonprofit organizations that can qualify for 501(c) status. Common examples include charitable organizations, churches and religious organizations, social advocacy groups, and trade organizations.

The Bottom Line

Organizations that are formed strictly to help the public and not primarily to make a profit, as is the case with most businesses, are an important presence in society. The U.S. government rewards these entities with a 501(c) designation and tax-exempt status because they reduce the burden on the state and improve the lives of the population.

We aren’t just talking about charities here, either. The IRS recognizes dozens of different types of nonprofit organizations as 501(c)s, including some credit unions and insurers.

[ad_2]

Source link

Autocorrelation: What It Is, How It Works, Tests

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Autocorrelation: What It Is, How It Works, Tests

[ad_1]

What Is Autocorrelation?

Autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It’s conceptually similar to the correlation between two different time series, but autocorrelation uses the same time series twice: once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods. 

For example, if it’s rainy today, the data suggests that it’s more likely to rain tomorrow than if it’s clear today. When it comes to investing, a stock might have a strong positive autocorrelation of returns, suggesting that if it’s “up” today, it’s more likely to be up tomorrow, too.

Naturally, autocorrelation can be a useful tool for traders to utilize; particularly for technical analysts.

Key Takeaways

  • Autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals.
  • Autocorrelation measures the relationship between a variable’s current value and its past values.
  • An autocorrelation of +1 represents a perfect positive correlation, while an autocorrelation of -1 represents a perfect negative correlation.
  • Technical analysts can use autocorrelation to measure how much influence past prices for a security have on its future price.

Understanding Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation can also be referred to as lagged correlation or serial correlation, as it measures the relationship between a variable’s current value and its past values.

As a very simple example, take a look at the five percentage values in the chart below. We are comparing them to the column on the right, which contains the same set of values, just moved up one row.

 Day  % Gain or Loss Next Day’s % Gain or Loss
 Monday  10%  5%
 Tuesday  5%  -2%
 Wednesday  -2%  -8%
 Thursday  -8%  -5%
 Friday  -5%  

When calculating autocorrelation, the result can range from -1 to +1.

An autocorrelation of +1 represents a perfect positive correlation (an increase seen in one time series leads to a proportionate increase in the other time series).

On the other hand, an autocorrelation of -1 represents a perfect negative correlation (an increase seen in one time series results in a proportionate decrease in the other time series).

Autocorrelation measures linear relationships. Even if the autocorrelation is minuscule, there can still be a nonlinear relationship between a time series and a lagged version of itself.

Autocorrelation Tests

The most common method of test autocorrelation is the Durbin-Watson test. Without getting too technical, the Durbin-Watson is a statistic that detects autocorrelation from a regression analysis.

The Durbin-Watson always produces a test number range from 0 to 4. Values closer to 0 indicate a greater degree of positive correlation, values closer to 4 indicate a greater degree of negative autocorrelation, while values closer to the middle suggest less autocorrelation.

Correlation vs. Autocorrelation

Correlation measures the relationship between two variables, whereas autocorrelation measures the relationship of a variable with lagged values of itself.

So why is autocorrelation important in financial markets? Simple. Autocorrelation can be applied to thoroughly analyze historical price movements, which investors can then use to predict future price movements. Specifically, autocorrelation can be used to determine if a momentum trading strategy makes sense.

Autocorrelation in Technical Analysis

Autocorrelation can be useful for technical analysis, That’s because technical analysis is most concerned with the trends of, and relationships between, security prices using charting techniques. This is in contrast with fundamental analysis, which focuses instead on a company’s financial health or management.

Technical analysts can use autocorrelation to figure out how much of an impact past prices for a security have on its future price.

Autocorrelation can help determine if there is a momentum factor at play with a given stock. If a stock with a high positive autocorrelation posts two straight days of big gains, for example, it might be reasonable to expect the stock to rise over the next two days, as well.

Example of Autocorrelation

Let’s assume Rain is looking to determine if a stock’s returns in their portfolio exhibit autocorrelation; that is, the stock’s returns relate to its returns in previous trading sessions.

If the returns exhibit autocorrelation, Rain could characterize it as a momentum stock because past returns seem to influence future returns. Rain runs a regression with the prior trading session’s return as the independent variable and the current return as the dependent variable. They find that returns one day prior have a positive autocorrelation of 0.8.

Since 0.8 is close to +1, past returns seem to be a very good positive predictor of future returns for this particular stock.

Therefore, Rain can adjust their portfolio to take advantage of the autocorrelation, or momentum, by continuing to hold their position or accumulating more shares.

What Is the Difference Between Autocorrelation and Multicollinearity?

Autocorrelation is the degree of correlation of a variable’s values over time. Multicollinearity occurs when independent variables are correlated and one can be predicted from the other. An example of autocorrelation includes measuring the weather for a city on June 1 and the weather for the same city on June 5. Multicollinearity measures the correlation of two independent variables, such as a person’s height and weight.

Why Is Autocorrelation Problematic?

Most statistical tests assume the independence of observations. In other words, the occurrence of one tells nothing about the occurrence of the other. Autocorrelation is problematic for most statistical tests because it refers to the lack of independence between values.

What Is Autocorrelation Used for?

Autocorrelation can be used in many disciplines but is often seen in technical analysis. Technical analysts evaluate securities to identify trends and make predictions about their future performance based on those trends.

The Bottom Line

Placeholder

[ad_2]

Source link