What Is Actuarial Science?

Actuarial science is a discipline that assesses financial risks in the insurance and finance fields, using mathematical and statistical methods. Actuarial science applies the mathematics of probability and statistics to define, analyze, and solve the financial implications of uncertain future events. Traditional actuarial science largely revolves around the analysis of mortality and the production of life tables, and the application of compound interest.

Understanding Actuarial Science

Actuarial science attempts to quantify the risk of an event occurring using probability analysis so that its financial impact can be determined. Actuarial science is typically used in the insurance industry by actuaries. Actuaries analyze mathematical models to predict or forecast the reasonableness of an event occurring so that an insurance company can allocate funds to pay out any claims that might result from the event. For example, studying mortality rates of individuals of a certain age would help insurance companies understand the likelihood or timeframe of paying out a life insurance policy.

Actuarial science became a formal mathematical discipline in the late 17th century with the increased demand for long-term insurance coverage. Actuarial science spans several interrelated subjects, including mathematics, probability theory, statistics, finance, economics, and computer science. Historically, actuarial science used deterministic models in the construction of tables and premiums. In the last 30 years, science has undergone revolutionary changes due to the proliferation of high-speed computers and the union of stochastic actuarial models with modern financial theory.

Applications of Actuarial Science

Life insurance and pension plans are the two main applications of actuarial science. However, actuarial science is also applied in the study of financial organizations to analyze their liabilities and improve financial decision-making. Actuaries employ this specialty science to evaluate the financial, economic, and other business applications of future events.

Insurance

In traditional life insurance, actuarial science focuses on the analysis of mortality, the production of life tables, and the application of compound interest, which is the accumulated interest from previous periods plus the interest on the principal investment. As a result, actuarial science can help develop policies for financial products such as annuities, which are investments that pay a fixed income stream. Actuarial science is also used to determine the various financial outcomes for investable assets held by non-profit corporations as a result of endowments. 

In health insurance, including employer-provided plans and social insurance, actuarial science includes analyzing rates of

• Disability in the population or the risk of a certain group of people becoming disabled
• Morbidity or the frequency and the extent to which a disease occurs in a population
• Mortality or mortality rate, which measures the number of deaths in a population that result from a specific disease or event
• Fertility or fertility rate, which measures the number of children born

For example, disability rates are determined for veterans that may have been wounded in the line of duty. Certain percentages are assigned to the extent of the disability to determine the payout from disability insurance.

Actuarial science is also applied to property, casualty, liability, and general insurance–instances in which coverage is generally provided on a renewable period, (such as yearly). Coverage can be canceled at the end of the period by either party.

Pensions

In the pension industry, actuarial science compares the costs of alternative strategies with regard to the design, funding, accounting, administration, and maintenance or redesign of pension plans. A pension plan is a defined-benefit plan, which is a type of retirement plan involving contributions from the employer to be set aside and paid out to the employees upon retirement.

Short-term and long-term bond rates greatly influence pension plans and their investment strategies. Bonds are debt instruments issued by governments and corporations that typically pay a periodic interest rate. For example, in a low-interest-rate environment, a pension plan might have difficulty earning income from the bonds that it has invested in, which increases the probability that the pension plan could run out of money.

Other factors impacting a pension plan’s viability include benefit arrangements, collective bargaining, the employer’s competitors, and changing demographics of the workforce. Tax laws and the policies of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regarding the calculation of pension surpluses also impact the finances of a pension plan. Additionally, economic conditions and trends in the financial markets can impact the probability of a pension plan remaining funded.

Universities and Professional Certifications

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of actuaries employed is expected to grow 21% from 2021 to 2031. For this reason, many universities offer educational degrees and courses on actuarial science. In addition, there are professional designations for those interested in pursuing the field.

Universities

The Society of Actuaries identifies and reports colleges that meet one of three levels of recognition:

• UCAP-Introduction Curriculum: Universities that maintain course requirements for two professional actuarial exams in addition to having met other approved course requirements.
• UCAP-Advanced Curriculum: Universities that maintain course requirements for four professional exams in addition to having met other approved course requirements.
• Center of Actuarial Excellence: Universities that maintain eight specific requirements in connection with a variety of matters. This is the highest tier of competency identified by the SOA for a university.

As of December 2022, there are roughly 25 Center of Actuarial Excellence schools across the United States, Canda, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and China. Within the U.S., these schools include but are not limited to Brigham Young, Georgia State, Purdue, Connecticut, and Michigan.

Professional Designations and Credentials

There are a number of different professional designations an actuary can pursue to further gain credibility and proficiency in their field. The Casualty Actuarial Society offers the Associate (ACAS) and Fellow (FCAS) membership levels, each of the two with escalating requirements. For example, the ACAS credential can be achieved after passing six exams, while the FCAS is earned after nine exams. Areas of focus for the FCAS exam include:

• Probability
• Financial Mathematics
• Financial Economics
• Modern Actuarial Statistics
• Basic Techniques for Ratemaking and Estimating Claim Liabilities
• Regulation & Financial Reporting
• Policy Liabilities, Insurance Company Valuation, and Enterprise Risk Management
• Advanced Ratemaking

The Society of Actuaries promotes several different actuarial exams to demonstrate competency in the field.

• An Associate of the Society of Actuaries (ASA) demonstrates knowledge of fundamental concepts of modeling and managing risk. The examination requirements are changing as of Spring 2023, and the list of required examinations includes topics on predictive analysis, economics, probabilities, and financial markets.
• A Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst (CERA) specializes in having knowledge in identifying, measuring, and managing risk in risk-bearing enterprises. Similar to the ASA requirements, the CERA requirements include a professional course covering code of conduct.
• A Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA) demonstrates knowledge of financial decisions involving pensions, life insurance, health insurance, and investments. FSAs also must demonstrate in-depth knowledge and the application of appropriate techniques to these various areas.

The Bottom Line

Actuarial science is the study of mathematically predicting the probability of something happening in the future and assigning that outcome a financial value. Companies, pension funds, and insurance agencies rely on actuaries to develop models to assess areas of risk and devise policies to mitigate potential future challenges.

What Was the Asian Financial Crisis?

The Asian financial crisis, also called the “Asian Contagion,” was a sequence of currency devaluations and other events that began in July 1997 and spread across Asia. The crisis started in Thailand when the government ended the local currency’s de facto peg to the U.S. dollar after depleting much of the country’s foreign exchange reserves trying to defend it against months of speculative pressure.

Just weeks after Thailand stopped defending its currency, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia were also compelled to let their currencies fall as speculative market pressure built. By October, the crisis spread to South Korea, where a balance-of-payments crisis brought the government to the brink of default.

Other economies also came under pressure, but those with solid economic fundamentals and hefty foreign exchange reserves fared much better. Hong Kong fended off several major but unsuccessful speculative attacks on its currency, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar via a currency board system and backed by massive U.S. dollar reserves. 

Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis

As the Thai baht fell, other Asian currencies fell—some precipitously. Across Asia, inflows of capital slowed or reversed.

The Thai baht had been trading at about 26 to the U.S. dollar before the crisis but lost half its value by the end of 1997, falling to 53 to the dollar by January 1998. The South Korean won fell from about 900 to the dollar to 1,695 by the end of 1997. The Indonesian rupiah, which had been trading at around 2,400 to the dollar in June 1997, plummeted to 14,900 by June 1998, less than one-sixth its precrisis level.

Some of the more heavily affected countries fell into severe recession. Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell from 4.7% in 1997 to -13.1% in 1998. In the Philippines, it slid from 5.2% to -0.5% over the same period. Malaysia’s GDP growth similarly slid from 7.3% in 1997 to -7.4% in 1998, while South Korea’s contracted from 6.2% to -5.1%.

In Indonesia, the ensuing economic crisis led to the collapse of the three-decade-old dictatorship of President Suharto.

The crisis was alleviated by intervention from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and The World Bank, among others, which poured some $118 billion into Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea to bail out their economies.

As a result of the the crisis, affected countries restructured their economies, generally because the IMF required reform as a condition of help. The specific policy changes were different in each country but generally involved strengthening weak financial systems, lowering debt levels, raising interest rates to stabilize currencies, and cutting government spending.

The crisis also serves as a valuable case study for economists to understand how interwoven markets affect one another, especially as it relates to currency trading and national accounts management.

Causes of the Asian Financial Crisis

The crisis was rooted in several threads of industrial, financial, and monetary government policies and the investment trends that they created. Once the crisis began, markets reacted strongly, and one currency after another came under pressure. Some of the macroeconomic problems included current account deficits, high levels of foreign debt, climbing budget deficits, excessive bank lending, poor debt-service ratios, and imbalanced capital inflows and outflows.

Many of these problems were the result of policies to promote export-led economic growth in the years leading up to the crisis. Governments worked closely with manufacturers to support exports, including providing subsidies to favored businesses, more favorable financing, and a currency peg to the U.S. dollar to ensure an exchange rate favorable to exporters.

While this did support exports, it also created risk. Explicit and implicit government guarantees to bail out domestic industries and banks meant investors often did not assess the profitability of an investment but instead looked to its political support. Investment policies also created cozy relationships among local conglomerates, financial institutions, and the regulators who oversaw their industries. Large volumes of foreign money flowed in, often with little attention to potential risks. These factors all contributed to a massive moral hazard in Asian economies, encouraging major investment in marginal and potentially unsound projects.

As the crisis spread, it became clear that the impressive economic growth rates in these countries were concealing serious vulnerabilities. In particular, domestic credit had expanded rapidly for years, often poorly supervised, creating significant leverage along with loans extended to dubious projects. Rapidly rising real estate values (often fueled by easy access to credit) contributed to the problem, along with rising current account deficits and a buildup in external debt. Heavy foreign borrowing, often at short maturities, also exposed corporations and banks to significant exchange rate and funding risks—risks that had been masked by long-standing currency pegs. When the pegs fell apart, companies that owed money in foreign currencies suddenly owed a lot more in local currency terms, forcing many into insolvency.

Many Asian economies had also slid into current account deficits. If a country has a current account surplus, that means it is essentially a net lender to the rest of the world. If the current account balance is negative, then the country is a net borrower from the rest of the world. Current account deficits had grown on the back of heavy government spending (much of it directed to supporting continued export growth).

Response to the Asian Financial Crisis

The IMF intervened to stem the crisis with loans to stabilize the affected economies. The IMF and others lent roughly $118 billion in short-term loans to Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea. The bailouts came with conditions, though: Governments had to raise taxes, cut spending, and eliminate many subsidies. By 1999, many of the affected countries began to show signs of recovery.

Other financial institutions also intervened. For example, in December 1997, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank brokered a deal under which U.S. banks owed money by South Korean companies on short-term loans voluntarily agreed to roll them over into medium-term loans.

Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis

Many of the lessons of the Asian financial crisis remain relevant today. First, beware of asset bubbles, as they have a habit of bursting. Another is that governments need to control spending and pursue prudent economic development policies.

The Bottom Line

In 1997, decades of economic policy planning that featured close relationships among government policy planners, regulators, the industries they regulated, and financial institutions came to a head when markets began putting downward pressure on Asian currencies. The most vulnerable were those countries with high levels of debt and insufficient financing to pay it.

The IMF stepped in to bail out the most affected economies, but it imposed strict conditions in exchange for the help. Some measures included requiring governments to cut spending, raise taxes, eliminate subsidies, and restructure their financial systems.

The crisis also serves as a case study in asset bubbles and how quickly panic selling can trigger contagion that central bankers cannot control.

What Is an Automated Teller Machine (ATM)?

An automated teller machine (ATM) is an electronic banking outlet that allows customers to complete basic transactions without the aid of a branch representative or teller. Anyone with a credit card or debit card can access cash at most ATMs, either in the USA or abroad.

ATMs are convenient, allowing consumers to perform quick self-service transactions such as deposits, cash withdrawals, bill payments, and transfers between accounts. Fees are commonly charged for cash withdrawals by the bank where the account is located, by the operator of the ATM, or by both. Some or all of these fees can be avoided by using an ATM operated directly by the bank that holds the account. Using an ATM abroad can cost more than using one in the USA.

ATMs are known in different parts of the world as automated bank machines (ABMs) or cash machines.

Understanding Automated Teller Machines (ATMs)

The first ATM appeared at a branch of Barclays Bank in London in 1967, though there are reports of a cash dispenser in use in Japan in the mid-1960s. The interbank communications networks that allowed a consumer to use one bank’s card at another bank’s ATM followed in the 1970s.

Within a few years, ATMs had spread around the globe, securing a presence in every major country. They now can be found even in tiny island nations such as Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia.

Types of ATMs

There are two primary types of ATMs. Basic units only allow customers to withdraw cash and receive updated account balances. The more complex machines accept deposits, facilitate line of credit payments and transfers, and access account information.

To access the advanced features of the complex units, a user often must be an account holder at the bank that operates the machine.

Analysts anticipate ATMs will become even more popular and forecast an increase in the number of ATM withdrawals. ATMs of the future are likely to be full-service terminals instead of or in addition to traditional bank tellers.

ATM Design Elements

Although the design of each ATM is different, they all contain the same basic parts:

• Card reader: This part reads the chip on the front of the card or the magnetic stripe on the back of the card.
• Keypad: The keypad is used by the customer to input information, including personal identification number (PIN), the type of transaction required, and the amount of the transaction.
• Cash dispenser: Bills are dispensed through a slot in the machine, which is connected to a safe at the bottom of the machine.
• Printer: If required, consumers can request receipts that are printed out of the ATM. The receipt records the type of transaction, the amount, and the account balance.
• Screen: The ATM issues prompts that guide the consumer through the process of executing the transaction. Information is also transmitted on the screen, such as account information and balances.

Full-service machines now often have slots for depositing paper checks or cash.

How to Use an ATM

Banks place ATMs inside and outside of their branches. Other ATMs are located in high-traffic areas such as shopping centers, grocery stores, convenience stores, airports, bus and railway stations, gas stations, casinos, restaurants, and other locations. Most ATMs that are found in banks are multifunctional, while others that are off-site tend to be primarily or entirely designed for cash withdrawals.

ATMs require consumers to use a plastic card—either a bank debit card or a credit card—to complete a transaction. Consumers are authenticated by a PIN before any transaction can be made.

Many cards come with a chip, which transmits data from the card to the machine. These work in the same fashion as a bar code that is scanned by a code reader.

ATM Fees

Account holders can use their bank’s ATMs at no charge, but accessing funds through a unit owned by a competing bank usually incurs a fee. According to MoneyRates.com, the average total fees to withdraw cash from an out-of-network ATM was $4.55 as of 2022.

Some banks will reimburse their customers for the fee, especially if there is no corresponding ATM available in the area.

So, if you’re one of those people who draws weekly spending money from an ATM, using the wrong machine could cost you nearly $240 a year.

ATM Ownership

In many cases, banks and credit unions own ATMs. However, individuals and businesses may also buy or lease ATMs on their own or through an ATM franchise. When individuals or small businesses such as restaurants or gas stations own ATMs, the profit model is based on charging fees to the machine’s users.

Banks also own ATMs with this intent. They use the convenience of an ATM to attract clients. ATMs also take some of the customer service burdens from bank tellers, saving banks money in payroll costs.

Using ATMs Abroad

ATMs make it simple for travelers to access their checking or savings accounts from almost anywhere in the world.

Travel experts advise consumers to use foreign ATMs as a source of cash abroad, as they generally receive a more favorable exchange rate than they would at most currency exchange offices.

However, the account holder’s bank may charge a transaction fee or a percentage of the amount exchanged. Most ATMs do not list the exchange rate on the receipt, making it difficult to track spending.

The Bottom Line

ATM stands for automated teller machine. These are electronic banking outlets that allow people to complete transactions without going into a branch of their bank. Some ATMs are simple cash dispensers, while others allow a variety of transactions such as check deposits, balance transfers, and bill payments. The first ATMs appeared in the mid- to late 1960s and have grown in number to more than 2 million worldwide.

What Is an Amortization Schedule?

Amortizing loans feature level payment amounts over the life of the loan, but with varying proportions of interest and principal making up each payment. A traditional mortgage is a prime example of such a loan.

A loan amortization schedule represents the complete table of periodic loan payments, showing the amount of principal and interest that comprise each level payment until the loan is paid off at the end of its term. Early in the schedule, the majority of each payment goes toward interest; later in the schedule, the majority of each payment begins to cover the loan’s remaining principal.

Understanding an Amortization Schedule

If you are taking out a mortgage or auto loan, your lender should provide you with a copy of your loan amortization schedule so you can see at a glance what the loan will cost and how the principal and interest will be broken down over its life.

In a loan amortization schedule, the percentage of each payment that goes toward interest diminishes a bit with each payment and the percentage that goes toward principal increases. Take, for example, a loan amortization schedule for a $165,000, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 4.5% interest rate:

Amortization schedules can be customized based on your loan and your personal circumstances. With more sophisticated amortization calculators, like the templates you can find in Excel you can compare how making accelerated payments can accelerate your amortization. If for example, you are expecting an inheritance, or you get a set yearly bonus, you can use these tools to compare how applying that windfall to your debt can affect your loan’s maturity date and your interest cost over the life of the loan.

In addition to mortgages, car loans and personal loans are also amortizing for a term set in advance, at a fixed interest rate with a set monthly payment. The terms vary depending on the asset. Most conventional home loans are 15- or 30-year terms. Car owners often get an auto loan that will be repaid over five years or less. For personal loans, three years is a common term.

Formulas Used in Amortization Schedules

Borrowers and lenders use amortization schedules for installment loans that have payoff dates that are known at the time the loan is taken out, such as a mortgage or a car loan. There are specific formulas that are used to develop a loan amortization schedule. These formulas may be built into the software you are using, or you may need to set up your amortization schedule from scratch.

If you know the term of a loan and the total periodic payment amount, there is an easy way to calculate a loan amortization schedule without resorting to the use of an online amortization schedule or calculator. The formula to calculate the monthly principal due on an amortized loan is as follows:

Principal Payment = Total Monthly Payment – [Outstanding Loan Balance x (Interest Rate / 12 Months)]

To illustrate, imagine a loan has a 30-year term, a 4.5% interest rate, and a monthly payment of $1,266.71. Starting in month one, multiply the loan balance ($250,000) by the periodic interest rate. The periodic interest rate is one-twelfth of 4.5% (or 0.00375), so the resulting equation is $250,000 x 0.00375 = $937.50. The result is the first month’s interest payment. Subtract that amount from the periodic payment ($1,266.71 – $937.50) to calculate the portion of the loan payment allocated to the principal of the loan’s balance ($329.21).

To calculate the next month’s interest and principal payments, subtract the principal payment made in month one ($329.21) from the loan balance ($250,000) to get the new loan balance ($249,670.79), and then repeat the steps above to calculate which portion of the second payment is allocated to interest and which is allocated to the principal. You can repeat these steps until you have created an amortization schedule for the full life of the loan.

An Easier Way to Calculate an Amortization Schedule

Calculating an amortization schedule is as simple as entering the principal, interest rate, and loan term into a loan amortization calculator. But you can also calculate it by hand if you know the rate on the loan, the principal amount borrowed, and the loan term.

How to Calculate the Total Monthly Payment

Typically, the total monthly payment is specified by your lender when you take out a loan. However, if you are attempting to estimate or compare monthly payments based on a given set of factors, such as loan amount and interest rate, you may need to calculate the monthly payment as well.

If you need to calculate the total monthly payment for any reason, the formula is as follows:

Total Monthly Payment = Loan Amount [ i (1+i) ^ n / ((1+i) ^ n) – 1) ]

where:

• i = monthly interest rate. You’ll need to divide your annual interest rate by 12. For example, if your annual interest rate is 6%, your monthly interest rate will be .005 (.06 annual interest rate / 12 months).
• n = number of payments over the loan’s lifetime. Multiply the number of years in your loan term by 12. For example, a 30-year mortgage loan would have 360 payments (30 years x 12 months).

Using the same example from above, we will calculate the monthly payment on a $250,000 loan with a 30-year term and a 4.5% interest rate. The equation gives us $250,000 [(0.00375 (1.00375) ^ 360) / ((1.00375) ^ 360) – 1) ] = $1,266.71. The result is the total monthly payment due on the loan, including both principal and interest charges.

30-Year vs. 15-Year Amortization Table

If a borrower chooses a shorter amortization period for their mortgage—for example, 15 years—they will save considerably on interest over the life of the loan, and they will own the house sooner. That’s because they’ll make fewer payments for which interest will be amortized. Additionally, interest rates on shorter-term loans are often at a discount compared to longer-term loans.

There is a tradeoff, however. A shorter amortization window increases the monthly payment due on the loan. Short amortization mortgages are good options for borrowers who can handle higher monthly payments without hardship; they still involve making 180 sequential payments (15 years x 12 months).

It’s important to consider whether or not you can maintain that level of payment based on your current income and budget.

Using an amortization calculator can help you compare loan payments against potential interest savings for a shorter amortization to decide which option suits you best. Here’s what a $500,000 loan with a 6% interest rate would look like, with a hypothetical 30-year and 15-year schedule to compare: