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Arab League

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Arab League

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Member Nations of the Arab League
Algeria (1962)  Jordan* Oman (1971) Syria*
Bahrain (1971) Kuwait (1961) Palestine (1976) Tunisia (1958)
Comoros (1993) Lebanon*  Qatar (1971) United Arab Emirates (1971)
Djibouti (1977) Libya (1953) Saudi Arabia*  Yemen*
Egypt*  Mauritania (1973) Somalia (1974)
Iraq* Morocco (1958) Sudan (1956)
Source: Council on Foreign Relations

*denotes a founding member state

There are four nations that were conferred observer status by the League: Brazil, Eritrea, India, and Venezuela.

The Arab League countries have widely varying levels of population, wealth, gross domestic product (GDP), and literacy. They are all predominantly Muslim, Arabic-speaking countries, but Egypt and Saudi Arabia are considered the dominant players in the League. Through agreements for joint defense, economic cooperation, and free trade, among others, the league helps its member countries to coordinate government and cultural programs to facilitate cooperation and limit conflict.

When Jordan joined the Arab League, its official name was Transjordan.

History of the Arab League

The League was formed in 1945 after the seven founding members signed the Alexandria Protocol in Cairo the previous year. The prominent issue at the time was freeing the Arab countries that were still under colonial rule.

Cairo was the original headquarters for the League in 1945. That changed in 1979 when it was moved to Tunis, Tunisia. The organization revoked Egypt’s membership after it signed a peace treaty with Israel. The League reestablished ties with Egypt in 1987 and moved its headquarters back to Cairo when it was admitted back as a member state in 1989.

The Arab League acted decisively and unanimously during the Arab Spring uprisings in early 2011 by revoking the country’s membership that same year. It supported United Nations (UN) action against then-leader Muammar Gaddafi’s forces. Libya’s membership was reinstated later that year after a representative of the National Transitional Council was installed following Gaddafi’s removal from office to act as the interim government.

The Arab League condemned the Islamic State in 2014 and several of its members launched airstrikes against the militant organization. But it did little as a whole to assist the Shiite-led Iraqi government. Syria’s membership was also under threat because of government violence against civilian protestors as the League passed a resolution to revoke it in 2011. In 2018 and 2019, the organization called on Turkey to withdraw from Syria.

In April 2021, the League called on Somalia to hold postponed presidential and parliamentary elections.

Views on Israel

One of the original goals of the Arab League was to prevent the breakup of Palestine via the creation of the Jewish state of Israel, as the organization recognizes Palestine as a separate nation.

The League’s position on Israel has been inconsistent. In 2019, it denounced Israel’s plans to annex the Jordan Valley. In February 2020, the League denounced the Middle East peace plan put forth by President Donald Trump’s administration, saying it “does not meet the minimum rights and aspirations of Palestinian people.”

Several members seemed to approve of the plan. And in September 2020, the League didn’t condemn the decision by the United Arab Emirates to normalize ties with the Jewish state.

One of the Arab League’s longest-lasting and unanimous actions: Its members’ economic boycott of Israel between 1948 and 1993.

The Arab League Charter

The charter of the Arab League was established on March 22, 1945, and is referred to as the Pact of the League of Arab States. It was signed by the leaders of the seven founding member states: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. As per the agreement, the member states aim to strengthen their ties and reinforce their sovereignty.

The pact is composed of 20 articles that outline the goals, governance, headquarters, and the creation of the Arab League Council. It also features what actions must be taken to resolve disputes among members.

There are also annexes on the following issues:

  • Palestine
  • The cooperation with other non-member Arab countries
  • The appointment of the League’s Secretary-General

The Arab League Council

The League Council is the highest body of the Arab League and is composed of representatives of member states, typically foreign ministers, their representatives, or permanent delegates. Each member state has one vote.

The Council meets twice a year, in March and September. Two or more members may request a special session if they desire.

The general secretariat manages the daily operations of the league and is headed by the secretary-general. The general secretariat is the administrative body of the league, the executive body of the council, and the specialized ministerial councils.

Arab League Member Conflicts

(The Arab League’s effectiveness and influence have been hampered by divisions among member states. During the Cold War, some members were supportive of the Soviet Union while others aligned with Western nations. There has also been rivalry over League leadership—especially between Egypt and Iraq.

Hostilities between monarchies such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Morocco have been disruptive, as have the conduct of states that have undergone political change such as Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser, and Libya under Muammar Gaddafi. The attack on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq by the United States also created significant rifts between members of the Arab League.

Resolutions by the Council don’t have to be unanimously approved by members. However, because they are binding only on the nations that voted for them (no country has to abide by them against its will) their effectiveness is somewhat limited, often amounting to little more than declarations rather than implemented policies.

What Is the Purpose of the Arab League?

The Arab League’s state purpose is to seek close cooperation among its members on matters of common interest—specifically, economics, communication, culture, nationality, social welfare, and health; to strengthen ties, improve communication, and promote common interest among Arabic-speaking nations.

The Pact of the League of Arab States, the organization’s founding document, identifies the mission of the League as follows:

“The purpose of the League is to draw closer the relations between member States and coordinate their political activities with the aim of realizing a close collaboration between them, to safeguard their independence and sovereignty, and to consider in a general way the affairs and interests of the Arab countries.”

Who Is the Leader of the Arab League?

The Arab League is headed by the Secretary-General. As of June 4, 2022, Ahmed Aboul Gheit holds that post. He assumed it in 2016.

Does the Arab League Still Exist?

Yes, the Arab League still exists. But members are skipping League summits and declining positions, possibly a sign of waning enthusiasm for the organization.

Some scholars and statesmen feel that the League is unable to overcome a fundamental paralysis, due to internal divisions among its member nations, leading to “resolutions [that] are prefabricated, out of date, out of touch, and reflexively anti-Israeli,” as states a 2020 article posted by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. The conclusion of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies is that “the time has come to close it down.”

“The League’s paralysis reflects its irrelevance since the 2000s,” Sean Yom, associate professor at Temple University, Philadelphia, and author of From Resilience to Revolution: How Foreign Interventions Destabilize the Middle East, said in a 2018 interview. “If we are going to see the League simply dissolve away, it will probably take another decade or two.”

Why Is Turkey Not in the Arab League?

Turkey has expressed interest in having an observer status in the League but has been refused for several reasons, most noticeably opposition from Iraq (whose Kurdish citizens Turkey has frequently battled with) and Syria (the latter still claims Turkey’s Hatay Province). The League also condemned Turkey’s military interventions in Libya and other countries.

Is the Arab League a Military Alliance?

The Arab League is not a military alliance per se. But its founding members agreed to cooperate in military affairs and coordinate military defense. At the 2007 summit, the leaders of its member states decided to reactivate their joint defense and establish a peacekeeping force to deploy in South Lebanon, Darfur, Iraq, and other hot spots.

At a 2015 summit in Egypt, member states agreed to form a joint voluntary military force in principle.

The Bottom Line

There are many different intergovernmental organizations found around the world. Some of these are global, such as the United Nations, while others are focused more on certain regions like the Arab League. This group is composed of 22 member nations that span the Middle East and Northern Africa. Like other, similar groups, the Arab League’s goals are to strengthen the relationships between member states while promoting their political and economic development.

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Aptitude Test: Definition, How It’s Used, Types, and How to Pass

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Is an Aptitude Test?

An aptitude test is an exam used to determine an individual’s skill or propensity to succeed in a given activity. Aptitude tests assume that individuals have inherent strengths and weaknesses and have a natural inclination toward success or failure in specific areas based on their innate characteristics.

Aptitude tests are generally used for job placement, college program entry, and to help people to get an idea of where their interests and aptitudes can take them regarding careers.

Key Takeaways

  • An aptitude test is used to determine an individual’s abilities, assessing how they are likely to perform in an area in which they have no prior training or knowledge.
  • Schools use aptitude tests to determine if students are inclined toward advanced placement classes or specific areas of study, such as engineering or a foreign language.
  • Human resources departments at some companies will use career assessment tests to learn about a potential candidate’s strengths and weaknesses.
  • An aptitude test does not test knowledge or intelligence, only a particular skill or propensity. Therefore, it is not a test for which a person can study.

Understanding Aptitude Tests

Aptitude tests can be used to determine your capabilities in a variety of subjects. For example, individuals may take an aptitude test to determine the careers that are a good match for their skills and interests. Similarly, high school students may take an aptitude test when thinking about what would be an appropriate college major or whether college is the best choice for them.

In general, aptitude tests measure one’s competence in logical reasoning, numerical skills, or verbal ability; competency can be evaluated through problem-solving tasks and testing one’s critical thinking across various contexts.

When You Might Take an Aptitude Test

Some schools administer aptitude tests to students beginning in elementary school. Combined with intelligence and achievement tests that measure student mastery of academic content, aptitude tests may be used to determine placement in gifted and talented programs or other specific educational tracks.

Language Aptitudes

For example, the Modern Language Aptitude Test (MLAT) measures a student’s potential for successfully mastering foreign languages. Aptitude tests can also help determine if a student needs special education services.

Older Students

For older students, Differential Aptitude Tests (DATs) assess a range of aptitudes from spatial relations to language usage. The results can help administrators make curricular recommendations.

Aptitude and personality tests can be useful in determining skills and abilities to highlight on a resume or cover letter when applying for a job.

Curriculum Guidance

Counselors might use high scores in mechanical reasoning tests to guide students toward courses that prepare them for engineering or designing studies in college. For instance, students who score well in tests measuring speed, accuracy, and problem-solving might choose coursework in computer science, finance, or other fields requiring attention to detail.

Hiring Decisions

Some companies use aptitude tests to help them make hiring decisions. These tests, called career assessment tests, help human resources (HR) personnel learn more about a prospective employee’s strengths and weaknesses. Career assessment tests may also be used within a company to make promotion decisions.

Situational judgment tests are a specific kind of career aptitude test that can help predict how an employee might respond to specific situations in the workplace. They are also used to assess an employee’s communication style and ability to work within a team.

Some situational judgment tests focus specifically on customer service careers. These tests analyze personality traits predictive of successful public interaction, such as empathy, diplomacy, and patience. Situational judgment tests may also be used to predict future competency in sales-related careers.

Types of Aptitude Tests

Many types of aptitude tests are taken for educational or career discovery and ability purposes. The most common aptitude tests are:

  • Mechanical reasoning: These types test your knowledge of physical concepts and are generally used to evaluate you for technical positions.
  • Situational judgment: These tests gauge your reactions to situations and your decision-making.
  • Diagrammatic/spatial reasoning: These tests see how well you can reach a conclusion based on processes contained in diagrams.
  • Abstract reasoning: These measure problem-solving abilities and identify relationships between abstract arrays.
  • Numerical reasoning: In these tests, your abilities with numbers, math, and data are tested.
  • Verbal reasoning: Your language, reading comprehension, and vocabulary are tested in these types.
  • Inductive reasoning: Under the pressure of time, these tests see how well you analyze patterns and data.
  • Logical reasoning: Logical reasoning tests measure how well you recognize patterns and sequences and identify relationships between objects.
  • Clerical aptitude: Clerical tests measure how fast and accurate you can be, seeing how well you can concentrate.

How to Pass an Aptitude Test

You might have heard that you can’t prepare for an aptitude test, but nothing could be further from the truth. Study guides and practice aptitude tests are readily available online and in community or high school libraries.

If you’re unsure about what kind of job you want or where you want to go next in your career, an aptitude or assessment test—offered on various websites, either for free or for a small fee—can be a great way of narrowing down options to make a choice.

Conduct an online search for the type of test you’ll be taking. You’ll find many guides that offer tips on subjects you can read about and practice tests. Once you’ve found the practice tests and some study material:

  • Practice the test daily: Practicing every day gives you continuous exposure to the questions and answers and helps you identify weak spots.
  • Learn the test format: Remembering the format helps you move through the test. It also allows you to identify areas you need to work on.
  • Carefully read the instructions: When you take the test, don’t dive into it. Instead, read all instructions and ensure you understand them, so you don’t work through a section giving wrong answers.
  • Manage your testing time: Answer the questions you know first. Then, go back and work on the more challenging questions.

What Is an Aptitude Test and an Example?

An aptitude test measures your capabilities in specific areas. One aptitude test most people hear of in high school is the Armed Forces Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). The ASVAB tests general science, arithmetic reasoning and mathematics, word knowledge, reading comprehension, mechanical comprehension, and more. The information is used to place applicants in job positions where they will have a better chance of succeeding.

Is an IQ Test an Aptitude Test?

An IQ test tries to measure your intelligence, while an aptitude test measures your ability to apply your intelligence.

Is There an Online Aptitude Test?

While some aptitude tests may still be given using test booklets and bubble sheets, many aptitude tests are administered online. You can find free and paid versions.

The Bottom Line

An aptitude test is a measure of your ability to learn or perform required tasks and succeed in the environment you’re in. They are not a measure of intelligence—these tests look for your strengths and weaknesses, giving you and the evaluator an idea of your abilities.

Most aptitude tests can indicate success in education and a career, but they are not always 100% accurate predictions. For example, it is possible to score very low on an aptitude test for a specific job and be successful with hard work and dedication—the test may have merely taken a snapshot of your knowledge and abilities at a point where you didn’t know much about the field.

Remember that preparation can help you pass an aptitude test even if you have no prior knowledge in an area—if you think of it as learning something new and interesting, you may surprise yourself with what you can do.

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Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Prediction Model

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Prediction Model

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What Is an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)?

An autoregressive integrated moving average, or ARIMA, is a statistical analysis model that uses time series data to either better understand the data set or to predict future trends. 

A statistical model is autoregressive if it predicts future values based on past values. For example, an ARIMA model might seek to predict a stock’s future prices based on its past performance or forecast a company’s earnings based on past periods.

Key Takeaways

  • Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models predict future values based on past values.
  • ARIMA makes use of lagged moving averages to smooth time series data.
  • They are widely used in technical analysis to forecast future security prices.
  • Autoregressive models implicitly assume that the future will resemble the past.
  • Therefore, they can prove inaccurate under certain market conditions, such as financial crises or periods of rapid technological change.

Understanding Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

An autoregressive integrated moving average model is a form of regression analysis that gauges the strength of one dependent variable relative to other changing variables. The model’s goal is to predict future securities or financial market moves by examining the differences between values in the series instead of through actual values.

An ARIMA model can be understood by outlining each of its components as follows:

  • Autoregression (AR): refers to a model that shows a changing variable that regresses on its own lagged, or prior, values.
  • Integrated (I): represents the differencing of raw observations to allow the time series to become stationary (i.e., data values are replaced by the difference between the data values and the previous values).
  • Moving average (MA):  incorporates the dependency between an observation and a residual error from a moving average model applied to lagged observations.

ARIMA Parameters

Each component in ARIMA functions as a parameter with a standard notation. For ARIMA models, a standard notation would be ARIMA with p, d, and q, where integer values substitute for the parameters to indicate the type of ARIMA model used. The parameters can be defined as:

  • p: the number of lag observations in the model, also known as the lag order.
  • d: the number of times the raw observations are differenced; also known as the degree of differencing.
  • q: the size of the moving average window, also known as the order of the moving average.

For example, a linear regression model includes the number and type of terms. A value of zero (0), which can be used as a parameter, would mean that particular component should not be used in the model. This way, the ARIMA model can be constructed to perform the function of an ARMA model, or even simple AR, I, or MA models.

Because ARIMA models are complicated and work best on very large data sets, computer algorithms and machine learning techniques are used to compute them.

ARIMA and Stationary Data

In an autoregressive integrated moving average model, the data are differenced in order to make it stationary. A model that shows stationarity is one that shows there is constancy to the data over time. Most economic and market data show trends, so the purpose of differencing is to remove any trends or seasonal structures. 

Seasonality, or when data show regular and predictable patterns that repeat over a calendar year, could negatively affect the regression model. If a trend appears and stationarity is not evident, many of the computations throughout the process cannot be made and produce the intended results.

A one-time shock will affect subsequent values of an ARIMA model infinitely into the future. Therefore, the legacy of the financial crisis lives on in today’s autoregressive models.

How to Build an ARIMA Model

To begin building an ARIMA model for an investment, you download as much of the price data as you can. Once you’ve identified the trends for the data, you identify the lowest order of differencing (d) by observing the autocorrelations. If the lag-1 autocorrelation is zero or negative, the series is already differenced. You may need to difference the series more if the lag-1 is higher than zero.

Next, determine the order of regression (p) and order of moving average (q) by comparing autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations. Once you have the information you need, you can choose the model you’ll use.

Pros and Cons of ARIMA

ARIMA models have strong points and are good at forecasting based on past circumstances, but there are more reasons to be cautious when using ARIMA. In stark contrast to investing disclaimers that state “past performance is not an indicator of future performance…,” ARIMA models assume that past values have some residual effect on current or future values and use data from the past to forecast future events.

The following table lists other ARIMA traits that demonstrate good and bad characteristics.

Pros

  • Good for short-term forecasting

  • Only needs historical data

  • Models non-stationary data

Cons

  • Not built for long-term forecasting

  • Poor at predicting turning points

  • Computationally expensive

  • Parameters are subjective

What Is ARIMA Used for?

ARIMA is a method for forecasting or predicting future outcomes based on a historical time series. It is based on the statistical concept of serial correlation, where past data points influence future data points.

What Are the Differences Between Autoregressive and Moving Average Models?

ARIMA combines autoregressive features with those of moving averages. An AR(1) autoregressive process, for instance, is one in which the current value is based on the immediately preceding value, while an AR(2) process is one in which the current value is based on the previous two values. A moving average is a calculation used to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different subsets of the full data set to smooth out the influence of outliers. As a result of this combination of techniques, ARIMA models can take into account trends, cycles, seasonality, and other non-static types of data when making forecasts.

How Does ARIMA Forecasting Work?

ARIMA forecasting is achieved by plugging in time series data for the variable of interest. Statistical software will identify the appropriate number of lags or amount of differencing to be applied to the data and check for stationarity. It will then output the results, which are often interpreted similarly to that of a multiple linear regression model.

The Bottom Line

The ARIMA model is used as a forecasting tool to predict how something will act in the future based on past performance. It is used in technical analysis to predict an asset’s future performance.

ARIMA modeling is generally inadequate for long-term forecastings, such as more than six months ahead, because it uses past data and parameters that are influenced by human thinking. For this reason, it is best used with other technical analysis tools to get a clearer picture of an asset’s performance.

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All Risk Insurance: What Is All Risk Insurance, and What Does It (and Doesn’t) Cover?

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

What Is All Risk Insurance, and What Does It (and Doesn't) Cover?

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What Is All Risks?

“All risks” refers to a type of insurance coverage that automatically covers any risk that the contract does not explicitly omit. For example, if an “all risk” homeowner’s policy does not expressly exclude flood coverage, then the house will be covered in the event of flood damage.

This type of policy is found only in the property-casualty market.

Key Takeaways

  • All risks is a comprehensive insurance policy offered in the property-casualty market.
  • All risks and named perils are two types of insurance commonly offered to homeowners and business owners.
  • Insurance that allows for all risks means the policyholder can seek compensation for any events that the contract hasn’t directly ruled out as being covered.
  • Policyholders can usually pay more to have a rider or floater added to the contract that would cover a specific event that was ruled out.
  • All risks insurance differs from named perils insurance, in which the policyholder can only seek compensation for events that are specified in the policy.

Understanding All Risks

Insurance providers generally offer two types of property coverage for homeowners and businesses—named perils and “all risks.” A named perils insurance contract only covers the perils stipulated explicitly in the policy.

For example, an insurance contract might specify that any home loss caused by fire or vandalism will be covered. Therefore, an insured who experiences a loss or damage caused by a flood cannot file a claim to his or her insurance provider, as a flood is not named as a peril under the insurance coverage. Under a named perils policy, the burden of proof is on the insured.

An all risks insurance contract covers the insured from all perils, except the ones specifically excluded from the list. Contrary to a named perils contract, an all risks policy does not name the risks covered, but instead, names the risks not covered. In so doing, any peril not named in the exclusions list is automatically covered.

The most common types of perils excluded from “all risks” include earthquake, war, government seizure or destruction, wear and tear, infestation, pollution, nuclear hazard, and market loss. An individual or business who requires coverage for any excluded event under “all risks” may have the option to pay an additional premium, known as a rider or floater, to have the peril included in the contract.

“All risks” are also called open perils, all perils, or comprehensive insurance.

Burden of Proof

The trigger for coverage under an “all risks” policy is physical loss or damage to property. An insured must prove physical damage or loss has occurred before the burden of proof shifts to the insurer, who then has to prove that an exclusion applies to the coverage.

For example, a small business that experienced a power outage may file a claim citing physical loss. The insurance company, on the other hand, might reject the claim stating that the company experienced a loss of income from a mere loss of property use, which is not the same thing as a physical loss of property.

Special Considerations

Because “all risks” is the most comprehensive type of coverage available and protects the insured from a greater number of possible loss events, it is priced proportionately higher than other types of policies. The cost of this type of insurance should, therefore, be measured against the probability of a claim.

It is possible to have named perils and “all risks” in the same policy. For example, an insured may have a property insurance policy that has all risks coverage on the building and named perils on his personal property. Everyone should read the fine print of any insurance agreement to ensure that they understand what is excluded in the policy.

Also, just because an insurance policy is termed “all risks” does not mean that it covers “all risks” since the exclusions reduce the level of coverage that is offered. Make sure you look for the exclusions in any prospective policy.

What Is the Meaning of All Risk?

All risk is a type of insurance product that requires a risk to be explicitly stated for it to not be covered. For example, if the contract does not state “tree damage” as an omitting risk, then if a tree were to fall on the insured property under an all risk policy, since the tree was not explicitly mentioned, the damage would be covered.

What Are the 4 Major Types of Insurance?

There are insurance products for almost everything, but for most people, there are four types of insurance products that are seen more than any other. Life insurance, auto insurance, health insurance, and long-term disability insurance are those that cover most of an individual’s risk factors. Once someone owns significant property like a house or something high-value like jewelry or other collector items, they will need additional policies tailored to these individual items. However, most people who rent will own the four major types listed above.

What Are All Risk Perils?

All risk perils is another name for all risk insurance as it relates to individual risks. Named perils is an insurance product that names what is insured in case of an accident. All risks, assuming there are no perils mentioned, could be considered all risk perils since all perils are assumed as risk (under the policy). However, these are rare as they put undue risk acceptance on the insurer, and it is much more common to see many perils listed, even on an all risks policy.

The Bottom Line

All risk insurance, also called all risk coverage, is an insurance product that covers any incident that isn’t explicitly mentioned. These policies assume a good deal of risk for the insurer and are less common than named risk coverage, which states exactly what is covered, versus stating only what is to be omitted (which is the case with all risk).

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