Posts Tagged ‘Investment’

Debunking 8 Myths About Technical Analysis

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Some traders and investors denounce technical analysis (TA) as a superficial study of charts and patterns without any concrete, conclusive or profitable results. Others believe it is a sort of Holy Grail that once mastered will unleash sizable profits. These opposing viewpoints have led to misconceptions about technical analysis and how it is used.  

Technical analysis tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities. Contrary to fundamental analysis, technical analysts do not necessarily care much about the companies behind the stocks they trade or their profitability.

Some misconceptions about technical analysis are based on education and training. For example, a trader trained in using only fundamentals may not trust technical analysis at all. But that doesn’t mean someone who is trained in technical analysis can’t use it profitably.

Other TA assumptions are based on bad experiences. For example, the incorrect use of technical indicators often leads to losses. That doesn’t mean the method is necessarily wrong; possibly the person just needs more practice and training. The negative sentiment can be perpetuated by unscrupulous marketing, promising overnight riches if a simple TA indicator is bought and used. It rarely is that easy.

Here are eight common technical analysis myths—and why they simply aren’t true. 

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analysis (TA) tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities.
  • Many opponents of TA subscribe to myths about the strategy.
  • Common myths about TA include it being only for day trading and only used by individual traders.
  • Other myths include the idea that TA is quick and easy, with all decisions made by software.
  • Some erroneously expect TA to make precise price predictions and be equally appropriate across all financial markets.

1. Technical Analysis Is Only for Short-Term Trading or Day Trading

It is a common myth that technical analysis is only appropriate for short-term and computer-driven trading like day trading and high-frequency trades. Technical analysis existed and was practiced before computers were common, and some of the pioneers in technical analysis were long-term investors and traders, not day traders. Technical analysis is used by traders on all time frames, from one-minute charts to weekly and monthly charts.

2. Only Individual Traders Use Technical Analysis 

While individuals do use technical analysis, hedge funds and investment banks make ample use of technical analysis as well. Investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis. High-frequency trading, which encompasses a significant amount of the trading volume on the stock exchanges, is heavily dependent on technical concepts. 

3. Technical Analysis Has a Low Success Rate

A look at the list of successful market traders, who have decades of trading experience, debunks this myth. Successful trader interviews have cited significant numbers of traders who owe their success to technical analysis and patterns. For example, Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders (Wiley, 2012) by Jack D. Schwager features interviews with many professionals who’ve profited solely by using technical analysis.

4. Technical Analysis Is Quick and Easy 

The internet is full of technical analysis courses that promise trading success. Though many individuals enter the trading world by placing their first trade based on simple technical indicators, continued success in trading requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline. It requires dedicated time, knowledge, and attention. Technical analysis is only a tool, only one piece of the puzzle.

5. Ready-Made Technical Analysis Software Can Help Traders Make Easy Money 

Unfortunately, this is not true. There are many online ads for cheap and costly software that claims to do all your analysis for you. In addition, less-experienced traders sometimes confuse technical analysis tools in broker-provided trading software for trading models that will guarantee profit. Though technical analysis software provides insights about trends and patterns, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee profits. It’s up to the trader to correctly interpret trends and data.

6. Technical Indicators Can Be Applied Across All Markets

While technical analysis can be applied to many markets, specific asset classes have specific requirements. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and bonds all have differences. There may be time-dependent patterns like high volatility in futures and options nearing expiry, or seasonal patterns in commodities. Don’t make the mistake of applying technical indicators intended for one asset class to another.

7. Technical Analysis Can Provide Precise Price Predictions 

Many novices expect recommendations from technical analysts or software patterns to be 100% precise. For example, inexperienced traders may expect a prediction as specific as, “stock ABC will reach $62 in two months.” However, experienced technical analysts usually avoid quoting prices so specifically. Rather they tend to quote a range such as, “stock A could move in the range of $59 to $64 in the next two to three months.”

Traders betting their money on technical recommendations should be aware that technical analysis provides a predictive range, not an exact number. Technical analysis is also about probability and likelihoods, not guarantees. If something works more often than not, even though it doesn’t work all the time, it can still be very effective at generating profits.

8. The Winning Rate in Technical Analysis Should Be Higher

It’s a common myth that a high percentage of winning trades is needed for profitability. However, that is not always the case. Assume Peter makes four winning trades out of five, while Molly makes one winning trade out of five. Who is more successful? Most people would say Peter, but we don’t actually know until we get more information. Profitability is a combination of win rate and risk/reward. If Peter makes $20 on his winners but is down $80 from his one loss, he ends up with $0. If Molly makes $50 on her win and losses $10 on her losses, she walks away with $10. She is better off, even with fewer wins. Proper trade structuring allows for profitability even with few winners

The Bottom Line

Technical analysis provides a large basket of tools and concepts for trading. There are successful traders who don’t use it, and there are successful traders who do. Some believe technical analysis is the best way to trade, while others claim it is misguided and lacks a theoretical basis.

Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn’t guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.

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Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

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What Is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)?

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a new international development bank that provides financing for infrastructure projects in Asia. It began operations in January 2016.

How the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Works

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank headquartered in Beijing. Like other development banks, its mission is to improve social and economic outcomes in its region, Asia, and beyond. The bank opened in January 2016 and now has 105 approved members worldwide, as of Jul. 30, 2022.

The History of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

China’s leader Xi Jinping first proposed an Asian infrastructure bank at an APEC summit in Bali in 2013. Many observers have interpreted the bank as a challenge to international lending bodies, which some consider too reflective of American foreign policy interests such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

In this bank’s case, China controls half of the bank’s voting shares, which gives the perception that the AIIB will function in the interests of the Chinese government. The U.S. has questioned the bank’s governing standards and its social and environmental safeguards, perhaps pressuring allies not to apply for membership. However, despite American objections, approximately half of NATO has signed on, as has nearly every large Asian country, with the exception of Japan. The result is widely considered in an indicator of China’s growing international influence at the expense of the United States.

The Structure of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

The bank is headed by a Board of Governors composed of one Governor and one Alternate Governor appointed by each of the 86 member countries. A non-resident Board of Directors is responsible for the direction and management of the Bank such as the Bank’s strategy, annual plan and budget and establishing policies and oversight procedures.

The bank staff is headed by a President who is elected by AIIB shareholders for a five-year term and is eligible for re-election once. The President is supported by Senior Management including five Vice Presidents for policy and strategy, investment operations, finance, administration, and the corporate secretariat and the General Counsel and Chief Risk Officer. Mr. Jin Liqun is the current President.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Priorities

The bank’s priorities are projects that promote sustainable Infrastructure and to support countries that are striving to meet environmental and development goals. The bank funds projects linking countries in the region and cross-border infrastructure projects for roads, rail, ports, energy pipelines and telecoms across Central Asia and maritime routes in South East and South Asia and the Middle East. The bank’s priorities also include private capital mobilization and encouraging partnerships that stimulate private capital investment such as those with other multilateral development banks, governments, and private financiers.

An example of an AIIB project is a rural road connectivity initiative that will benefit approximately 1.5 million rural residents in Madhya Pradesh, India. In April 2018, the AIIB announced the project, which is also expected to improve the livelihoods, education, and mobility of the residents of 5,640 villages. The project is a U.S. $140-million jointly financed by the AIIB and the World Bank.

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2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis

Written by admin. Posted in #, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Is the 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis?

The 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis was a contentious debate in Congress that occurred in July 2011 regarding the maximum amount of debt the federal government should be allowed.

Key Takeaways

  • The 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis was one of a series of recurrent debates over increasing the total size of the U.S. national debt.
  • In 2008, the federal budget deficit stood at $458.6 billon, which widened to $1.4 trillion the following year as the government spent heavily to boost the economy.
  • To resolve the crisis, Congress passed a law that increased the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion.

Understanding the 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis

The federal government has rarely achieved a balanced budget, and its budget deficit ballooned following the 2007-08 Financial Crisis. In the 2008 fiscal year, the deficit stood at $458.6 billon, widening to $1.4 trillion in 2009 as the government engaged in a massive fiscal policy response to the economic downturn.

Between 2008 and 2010, Congress raised the debt ceiling from $10.6 trillion to $14.3 trillion. In 2011, as the economy showed early signs of recovery and federal debt approached its limit once again, negotiations began in Congress to balance spending priorities against the ever-rising debt burden. 

Heated debate ensued, pitting proponents of spending and debt against fiscal conservatives. Pro-debt politicians argued that failing to raise the limit would require immediate cuts to spending already authorized by Congress, which could result in late, partial, or missed payments to Social Security and Medicare recipients, government employees, and government contractors.

Moreover, they asserted the Treasury could suspend interest payments on existing debt rather than withhold funds committed to federal programs. The prospect of cutting back on already promised spending was labeled a crisis by debt proponents.

On the other hand, the specter of a technical default on existing Treasury debt roiled financial markets. Fiscal conservatives argued that any debt limit increase should come with constraints on the growth of federal spending and debt accumulation.

Outcome of the 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis

Congress resolved the debt ceiling crisis by passing the Budget Control Act of 2011, which became law on August 2, 2011. This act allowed the debt ceiling to be raised by $2.4 trillion in two phases, or installments.

In the first phase, a $400 billion increase would occur immediately, followed by another $500 billion unless Congress disapproved it. The second phase allowed for an increase between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion, subject to Congressional disapproval as well. In return, the act included $900 billion in slowdowns in planned spending increases over a 10-year period. It also established a special committee charged with finding at least $1.5 trillion in additional savings.

In effect, the legislation incrementally raised the debt ceiling from $14.3 trillion to $16.4 trillion by January 27, 2012.

Following the passage of the act, Standard & Poor’s took the radical step of downgrading the United States long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+, even though the U.S. did not default. The report says, “The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.” The credit rating agency cited the unimpressive size of deficit reduction plans relative to the likely future prospects for politically driven spending and debt accumulation.

Debt Approval Process Leading to the 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis

The U.S. Constitution gives Congress the power to borrow money. Before 1917, this power was exercised by Congress authorizing the Treasury to borrow specified amounts of debt to fund limited expenses, such as war-time military spending, which would be repaid after the end of hostilities. This kept the national debt directly linked to authorized spending.

In 1917, Congress imposed a limit on federal debt as well as individual issuance limits. In 1939, Congress gave the Treasury more flexibility in how it managed the overall structure of federal debt, giving it an aggregate limit. However, by delegating debt management authority to the Treasury, Congress was able to break the direct connection between authorized spending and the debt that finances it. 

While allowing greater flexibility to raise spending, this practice also created a need for Congress to repeatedly raise the debt limit when spending threatens to overrun available credit. Due to occasional political resistance to the idea of continually expanding the federal debt, this process of raising the debt limit has at times engendered controversy, which occurred during the 2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis.

What could happen if Congress does not vote to raise the debt ceiling in 2023?

In a letter to the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned congressional leaders that the U.S. will reach its borrowing limit on Thursday, January 19. Yellen wrote that the Treasury will take “extraordinary measures” to avoid defaulting on its obligations, but she warned these measures might only be sufficient to cover obligations into June. Failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the U.S. economy, the livelihood of all Americans, and global financial stability, she warned. She also mentioned that the U.S. would risk facing another credit rating downgrade, similar to that of 2011.

Once the debt ceiling is reached, what spending will the Treasury cut?

In a letter to the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned congressional leaders that the Treasury will implement extraordinary measures to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on its obligations.

In January 2023, the Treasury will redeem existing and will suspend new investments of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. It will also suspend reinvestment of the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan.

Why did increasing the debt ceiling cause contentious debate in 2011?

Between 2008 and 2010, Congress raised the debt ceiling from $10.6 trillion to $14.3 trillion. In 2011, as the economy showed early signs of recovery and federal debt approached its limit again, negotiations began in Congress to decide spending priorities.  Heated debate ensued between pro-debt politicians and fiscal conservatives. Pro-debt politicians argued that failing to raise the limit could result in late, partial, or missed payments to Social Security and Medicare recipients, government employees, and government contractors. Fiscal conservatives argued that any debt limit increase should come with limits on federal spending and debt accumulation.

The Bottom Line

Following the 2007-08 Financial Crisis, in an effort to slow down the severe recession as well as the persistently high unemployment rate, the government increased federal spending. As a result, the federal debt reached its limit on multiple occasions from 2008 to 2011 which led to a series of increases of the debt limit. In 2011, the Treasury asked for its borrowing capacity to be extended.

The 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis was a contentious debate in Congress that occurred in July 2011 regarding the maximum amount of debt the federal government should be allowed. Congress resolved the debt ceiling crisis by passing the Budget Control Act of 2011, which became law on August 2, 2011. This act allowed the debt ceiling to be raised by $2.4 trillion in two phases, or installments.

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Annualized Total Return Formula and Calculation

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Annualized Total Return Formula and Calculation

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What Is Annualized Total Return?

An annualized total return is the geometric average amount of money earned by an investment each year over a given time period. The annualized return formula is calculated as a geometric average to show what an investor would earn over a period of time if the annual return was compounded.

An annualized total return provides only a snapshot of an investment’s performance and does not give investors any indication of its volatility or price fluctuations.

Key Takeaways

  • An annualized total return is the geometric average amount of money earned by an investment each year over a given time period.
  • The annualized return formula shows what an investor would earn over a period of time if the annual return was compounded.
  • Calculating the annualized rate of return needs only two variables: the returns for a given period and the time the investment was held.

Understanding Annualized Total Return

To understand annualized total return, we’ll compare the hypothetical performances of two mutual funds. Below is the annualized rate of return over a five-year period for the two funds:

  • Mutual Fund A Returns: 3%, 7%, 5%, 12%, and 1%
  • Mutual Fund B Returns: 4%, 6%, 5%, 6%, and 6.7%

Both mutual funds have an annualized rate of return of 5.5%, but Mutual Fund A is much more volatile. Its standard deviation is 4.2%, while Mutual Fund B’s standard deviation is only 1%. Even when analyzing an investment’s annualized return, it is important to review risk statistics.

Annualized Return Formula and Calculation

The formula to calculate annualized rate of return needs only two variables: the returns for a given period of time and the time the investment was held. The formula is:


Annualized Return = ( ( 1 + r 1 ) × ( 1 + r 2 ) × ( 1 + r 3 ) × × ( 1 + r n ) ) 1 n 1 \begin{aligned} \text{Annualized Return} = &\big ( (1 + r_1 ) \times (1 + r_2) \times (1 + r_3) \times \\ &\dots \times (1 + r_n) \big ) ^ \frac{1}{n} – 1 \\ \end{aligned}
Annualized Return=((1+r1)×(1+r2)×(1+r3)××(1+rn))n11

For example, take the annual rates of returns of Mutual Fund A above. An analyst substitutes each of the “r” variables with the appropriate return, and “n” with the number of years the investment was held. In this case, five years. The annualized return of Mutual Fund A is calculated as:


Annualized Return = ( ( 1 + . 0 3 ) × ( 1 + . 0 7 ) × ( 1 + . 0 5 ) × ( 1 + . 1 2 ) × ( 1 + . 0 1 ) ) 1 5 1 = 1 . 3 0 9 0 . 2 0 1 = 1 . 0 5 5 3 1 = . 0 5 5 3 , or  5 . 5 3 % \begin{aligned} \text{Annualized Return} &= \big ( (1 + .03) \times (1 + .07) \times (1 + .05) \times \\ &\quad \quad (1 + .12) \times (1 + .01) \big ) ^ \frac{1}{5} -1 \\ &= 1.309 ^ {0.20} – 1 \\ &= 1.0553 – 1 \\ &= .0553, \text{or } 5.53\% \\ \end{aligned}
Annualized Return=((1+.03)×(1+.07)×(1+.05)×(1+.12)×(1+.01))511=1.3090.201=1.05531=.0553,or 5.53%

An annualized return does not have to be limited to yearly returns. If an investor has a cumulative return for a given period, even if it is a specific number of days, an annualized performance figure can be calculated; however, the annual return formula must be slightly adjusted to:


Annualized Return = ( 1 + Cumulative Return ) 3 6 5 Days Held 1 \begin{aligned} &\text{Annualized Return} = ( 1 + \text{Cumulative Return} ) ^ \frac {365}{ \text{Days Held} } – 1 \\ \end{aligned}
Annualized Return=(1+Cumulative Return)Days Held3651

For example, assume a mutual fund was held by an investor for 575 days and earned a cumulative return of 23.74%. The annualized rate of return would be:


Annualized Return = ( 1 + . 2 3 7 4 ) 3 6 5 5 7 5 1 = 1 . 1 4 5 1 = . 1 4 5 , or  1 4 . 5 % \begin{aligned} \text{Annualized Return} &= ( 1 + .2374) ^ \frac{365}{575} – 1 \\ &= 1.145 – 1 \\ &= .145, \text{or } 14.5\% \\ \end{aligned}
Annualized Return=(1+.2374)5753651=1.1451=.145,or 14.5%

Difference Between Annualized Return and Average Return

Calculations of simple averages only work when numbers are independent of each other. The annualized return is used because the amount of investment lost or gained in a given year is interdependent with the amount from the other years under consideration because of compounding.

For example, if a mutual fund manager loses half of her client’s money, she has to make a 100% return to break even. Using the more accurate annualized return also gives a clearer picture when comparing various mutual funds or the return of stocks that have traded over different time periods. 

Reporting Annualized Return

According to the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS)—a set of standardized, industry-wide principles that guide the ethics of performance reporting—any investment that does not have a track record of at least 365 days cannot “ratchet up” its performance to be annualized.

Thus, if a fund has been operating for only six months and earned 5%, it is not allowed to say its annualized performance is approximately 10% since that is predicting future performance instead of stating facts from the past. In other words, calculating an annualized rate of return must be based on historical numbers.

How Is Annualized Total Return Calculated?

The annualized total return is a metric that captures the average annual performance of an investment or portfolio of investments. It is calculated as a geometric average, meaning that it captures the effects of compounding over time. The annualized total return is sometimes referred to as the compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

What Is the Difference Between an Annualized Total Return and an Average Return?

The key difference between the annualized total return and the average return is that the annualized total return captures the effects of compounding, whereas the average return does not.

For example, consider the case of an investment that loses 50% of its value in year 1 but has a 100% return in year 2. Simply averaging these two percentages would give you an average return of 25% per year. However, common sense would tell you that the investor in this scenario has actually broken even on their money (losing half its value in year one, then regaining that loss in year 2). This fact would be better captured by the annualized total return, which would be 0.00% in this instance.

What Is the Difference Between the Annualized Total Return and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

The annualized total return is conceptually the same as the CAGR, in that both formulas seek to capture the geometric return of an investment over time. The main difference between them is that the CAGR is often presented using only the beginning and ending values, whereas the annualized total return is typically calculated using the returns from several years. This, however, is more a matter of convention. In substance, the two measures are the same.

The Bottom Line

Annualized total return represents the geometric average amount that an investment has earned each year over a specific period. By calculating a geometric average, the annualized total return formula accounts for compounding when depicting the yearly earnings that the investment would generate over the holding period. While the metric provides a useful snapshot of an investment’s performance, it does not reveal volatility and price fluctuations.

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