Posts Tagged ‘invest’

How to Analyze Mid-Cap Stocks

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Golfers refer to the “sweet spot” as the position on the face of the club head that when hit produces the maximum result. A very similar result occurs when investing in mid-cap stocks, those companies with market capitalizations ranging from $2 billion to $10 billion. Most often, they are established businesses sandwiched between slower growth large-cap multinationals and faster-growing small-cap businesses.

In recent years, mid-cap stocks have outperformed both their large-cap and small-cap peers with very little added risk. It’s as if they have hit the sweet spot of performance. In this article, we examine the key attributes of mid-cap stocks including how to analyze them and why you should consider these often-misunderstood stocks for your portfolio.

Why Include Mid-Caps in Your Portfolio

Having already established that the historical performance of mid-cap stocks is equal to or in many cases better than both large-cap and small-cap stocks, it’s important to point out that performance isn’t the only reason to include mid-caps in your portfolio. Several others make them very tempting indeed. For example, most mid-caps are simply small caps that have grown bigger. Additional growth makes them the stepping stones to becoming large-cap businesses. Part of growing is obtaining additional financing to fuel expansion. Mid-caps generally have an easier time of it than small caps do.

While mid-caps have an advantage over small caps when it comes to raising funds, their advantage over large caps amounts to earnings growth. Smaller in size, mid-caps often have yet to reach the mature stage where earnings slow and dividends become a bigger part of a stock’s total return. Possibly the most overlooked reason for investing in mid-caps is the fact that they receive less analyst coverage than large caps because they are less known yet and many analysts have not spotted them yet or they have not piqued the interest of the mainstream readers of analyst reports. At the same time, they have already graduated from the high-risk zone of small-cap stocks, and their business model is much more proven.

Some of the best-performing stocks historically have been unloved companies that suddenly became loved, producing the institutional buyers necessary to move their price higher. Some call this the “money flow.” Call it what you will, institutional support is vital to a rising stock price. These big players can both create and destroy value for shareholders. In the end, investing in mid-caps makes sense because they provide investors with the best of both worlds: small-cap growth combined with large-cap stability.

Profitability

One of the beautiful things about mid-cap stocks is that you’re investing in businesses that are generally profitable, have been for some time and possess seasoned management teams. This doesn’t mean they’ve stopped growing; on the contrary, the average mid cap’s earnings tend to grow at a faster rate than the average small-cap while doing so with less volatility and risk. In addition to earnings growth, it’s important to find stocks whose earnings are sustainable for many years to come. That’s what turns a mid-cap into a large-cap.

Telltale signs indicating whether a company’s earnings are heading in the right direction include higher gross margins and operating margins combined with lower inventories and accounts receivable. If it routinely turns its inventory and receivables faster, this usually leads to higher cash flow and increased profits. All of these attributes help reduce risk. Mid-cap stocks tend to possess these attributes more frequently than other stocks.

Financial Health

Whatever size stock you’re interested in, it’s important to invest in companies with strong balance sheets. Famed investor Benjamin Graham used three criteria to assess the financial health of a company:

  • Total debt that is less than tangible book value. Tangible book value is defined as total assets less goodwill, other intangible assets, and all liabilities.
  • A current ratio greater than two. Current ratio is defined as current assets divided by current liabilities. It is an indication of a company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations.
  • Total debt less than two times net current asset value. Companies meeting this criterion are able to pay off their debts with cash and other current assets making them far more stable.

Given the unpredictability of business, a strong balance sheet can help companies survive the lean years. Because mid-caps tend to have stronger balance sheets than small caps, this reduces risk while providing superior returns to large caps. When investing in mid-caps, you are in a sense combining the financial strength of a large-cap with the growth potential of a small-cap with the end result often being above-average returns.

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth are the two most important factors in long-term returns. In recent years, mid-cap stocks have outperformed both large-cap and small-cap stocks because of their superior growth on both the top and bottom lines. Industry experts suggest mid-caps are able to produce better returns because they are quicker to act than large caps and more financially stable than small caps, providing a one-two punch in the quest for growth.

Investors interested in mid-cap stocks should consider the quality of revenue growth when investing. If gross and operating margins are increasing at the same time as revenues, it’s a sign the company is developing greater economies of scale resulting in higher profits for shareholders. Another sign of healthy revenue growth is lower total debt and higher free cash flow. The list goes on, and while many of the criteria investors use to assess stocks of any size definitely apply here, it’s vitally important with mid-caps that you see progress on the earnings front because that’s what’s going to turn it into a large-cap. Revenue growth is important but earnings growth is vital.

Reasonable Price

Nobody wants to overpay when shopping, and buying stocks is no different. Warren Buffett believes that “It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” Many refer to people interested in growth at a reasonable price as GARP investors. Some of the things GARP investors focus on when evaluating mid-cap stocks include growth measures like sales and earnings growth rates along with value measures like price/earnings and price/cash flow.

Whatever measures you choose, the most important criteria should be the quality of the company. As the Oracle of Omaha says, it doesn’t make sense to get a great deal on a dud company. Deep-value investors might disagree, but true GARP followers are simply looking to avoid overpaying, not obtaining the deal of the century. 

Stocks or Funds

Investing in mid-caps is an excellent way to simultaneously diversify and enhance the performance of your investment portfolio. Some investors will find there’s too much work involved in evaluating individual stocks, and if that’s you, an excellent alternative is to invest in exchange-traded funds or mutual funds, letting the professionals handle the evaluation process. Whatever your preference is, mid-caps are definitely worth considering.

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Daily Analysis 20230216

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 16th, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks close slightly higher, Nasdaq notches 3-day win streak as investors weigh retail sales and inflation data

Stocks ticked higher Wednesday as traders mulled what strong retail sales along with the latest U.S. inflation data mean for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking campaign.

Dow…….34129 +38.8 +0.11%
Nasdaq.12071 +110.5 +0.92%
*@S&P 500..4148 +11.5 +0.28%

FTSE…….7998 +43.98 +0.55%
Dax……..15506 +125.8 +0.82%
CAC……..7301 +87.1 +1.21%

Nikkei…..27502 -100.9 -0.37%
HSI………20812 -301.6 -1.43%
Shanghai..3280 -12.8 -0.39%

IDX…..6914.54 -27.32 -0.39%
LQ45….957.64 -2.67 -0.28%
IDX30…497.86 -1.46. -0.29%

IDXEnergy…2109.61 -2.13 -0.10%
IDX BscMat 1262.25 -6.02 -0.47%
IDX Indstrl…1158.36 -4.31 -0.37%
IDXNONCYC..759.46 +0.67 +0.09%
IDX Hlthcare1617.13 +4.82 +0.30%
IDXCYCLIC…845.08 -1.58 -0.19%
IDX Techno5528.40 -72.11 -1.29%
IDX Transp1831.57 -23.15 -1.25%
IDX Infrast….859.10 -1.29 -0.15 %
IDX Finance1426.36 -9.74 -0.68%
IDX Banking1165.33 -10.61-0.90%
IDX Property….697 -6.40 -0.91%

Indo10Yr.6.7774+0.0081 +0.12%
ICBI..350.4552 -0.1658 -0.05%
US10Yr.3.8090 +0.0480 +1.28%
VIX……18.23 -0.68 -3.60%👍

USDIndx103.8220+0.5530+0.54%
Como Indx.270.38 -3.18 -1.16%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..161.85 -2.49 -1.52%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15206.50 +39.50 +0.26%
Jisdor.15194.00 +26.00 +0.17%

Euro……1.0690 -0.0045 -0.42%

TLKM….24.96 -0.43 -1.69%
(3792)
EIDO……23.40 -0.11 -0.47%
EEM……40.11 -0.34 -0.84%

Oil……..78.59 -0.47 -0.59%
Gold 1845.30 -20.10 -1.08%
Timah 26817 -711.00 -2.58%
(Closed 02/14)
Nickel.26026.50 -461.00 -1.74%
(Closed 02/15)
Silver…….21.63 +0.05 +0.25%
Copper..402.55 +1.50 +0.37%

Nturl Gas.2.466 -0.135 -5.19%‼️

Ammonia4406.67 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(02/14)

Coal price.219.90 +0.40 +0.18%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price196.00 +1.50 +0.77%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price 195.40 +2.50 +1.30%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price 197.10 +3.00. +1.55%
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.136.50 +2.50 +1.83%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 142.00+10.25 +7.78%‼️
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price140.00 +9.25 +7.07%‼️
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price139.00 +8.25 +6.31%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(Apr)….3935 -20 -0.50%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..674.00 -5.75 -0.85%
SoybeanOil..61.44 +0.91 +1.50%
Wheat…….780.25 -16.50 -2.07%

Wood pulp…6050.00 -10 -0.17%
(Closed 02/15)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US europe ijo, asia yang kemaren masih pada merah, semoga hari ini ikutan ijo lagi

Oil merah, gas merah, coal gantian ijo, semoga lanjut dorong ADRO naik tinggi selain issue buyback. Metal2 masih merah kecuali silver copper, kemaren MDKA udah mulai jalan, jangan dulu entry tapi, sabar tunggu firm reversal, CPO merah lagi

IHSG – stoch balik sell, macd sw,last day NFS, MFI down, BD acc, alligator up, ST up, minor correction udah kena fibo 38 terus mantul, harusnya test resistance 6961, candle terakhir low lower shadow, bullish candle tanda perlawanan market ga mau dibawa turun, semoga ijo ikut US

Tinggal Healthcare, Infrastructure melemah, financials belum keliatan jalan padahal bank bank mulai gerak, BRIS gila 15% kemaren

Stochastic Buy Signal: AKRA AMRT

MACD Buy Signal: AKRA BRIS BRPT AGRO BSSR

Average Return: Meaning, Calculations and Examples

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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What Is Average Return?

The average return is the simple mathematical average of a series of returns generated over a specified period of time. An average return is calculated the same way that a simple average is calculated for any set of numbers. The numbers are added together into a single sum, then the sum is divided by the count of the numbers in the set.

Key Takeaways

  • The average return is the simple mathematical average of a series of returns generated over a specified period of time.
  • The average return can help measure the past performance of a security or portfolio.
  • The average return is not the same as an annualized return, as it ignores compounding.
  • The geometric average is always lower than the average return.

Understanding Average Return

There are several return measures and ways to calculate them. For the arithmetic average return, one takes the sum of the returns and divides it by the number of return figures.


Average Return = Sum of Returns Number of Returns \text{Average Return} = \dfrac{\text{Sum of Returns}}{\text{Number of Returns}}
Average Return=Number of ReturnsSum of Returns

The average return tells an investor or analyst what the returns for a stock or security have been in the past, or what the returns of a portfolio of companies are. The average return is not the same as an annualized return, as it ignores compounding.

Average Return Example

One example of average return is the simple arithmetic mean. For instance, suppose an investment returns the following annually over a period of five full years: 10%, 15%, 10%, 0%, and 5%. To calculate the average return for the investment over this five-year period, the five annual returns are added together and then divided by 5. This produces an annual average return of 8%.

Now, let’s look at a real-life example. Shares of Walmart returned 9.1% in 2014, lost 28.6% in 2015, gained 12.8% in 2016, gained 42.9% in 2017, and lost 5.7% in 2018. The average return of Walmart over those five years is 6.1%, or 30.5% divided by 5 years.

Calculating Returns From Growth

The simple growth rate is a function of the beginning and ending values or balances. It is calculated by subtracting the ending value from the beginning value and then dividing by the beginning value. The formula is as follows:


Growth Rate = BV EV BV where: BV = Beginning Value EV = Ending Value \begin{aligned} &\text{Growth Rate} = \dfrac{\text{BV} -\text{EV}}{\text{BV}}\\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &\text{BV} = \text{Beginning Value}\\ &\text{EV} = \text{Ending Value}\\ \end{aligned}
Growth Rate=BVBVEVwhere:BV=Beginning ValueEV=Ending Value

For example, if you invest $10,000 in a company and the stock price increases from $50 to $100, then the return can be calculated by taking the difference between $100 and $50 and dividing by $50. The answer is 100%, which means you now have $20,000.

The simple average of returns is an easy calculation, but it is not very accurate. For more accurate calculations of returns, analysts and investors also frequently use the geometric mean or the money-weighted rate of return.

Average Return Alternatives

Geometric Average

When looking at average historical returns, the geometric average is a more precise calculation. The geometric mean is always lower than the average return. One benefit of using the geometric mean is that the actual amounts invested need not be known. The calculation focuses entirely on the return figures themselves and presents an apples-to-apples comparison when looking at two or more investments’ performances over more various time periods.

The geometric average return is sometimes called the time-weighted rate of return (TWR) because it eliminates the distorting effects on growth rates created by various inflows and outflows of money into an account over time.

Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR)

Alternatively, the money-weighted rate of return (MWRR) incorporates the size and timing of cash flows, making it an effective measure for returns on a portfolio that has received deposits, dividend reinvestments, and/or interest payments, or has had withdrawals.

The MWRR is equivalent to the internal rate of return (IRR), where the net present value equals zero.

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Daily Analysis 20230215

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 15th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 150 points lower following January’s hotter-than-expected inflation report

Stocks wavered Tuesday and the Dow fell, reversing earlier gains, after the January consumer price index report showed that inflation grew at higher-than-expected 6.4% annual rate

Treasury yields ticked higher, and the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury closed at 5.022%, above 5% for the first time since July 2007.

Dow…….34089 -156.7 -0.46%
Nasdaq.11960 +68.4 +0.57%
S&P 500..4136 -1.2 -0.03%

FTSE…….7954 +6.3 +0.08%
Dax……..15381 -16.8 -0.11%
CAC……..7214 +5.2. +0.07%

Nikkei…..27603 +175.5 +0.64%
HSI………21114 -50.7 -0.24%
Shanghai..3293 +9.1 +0.28%

IDX…..6941.85 +41.72 +0.60%
LQ45….960.31 +7.09 +0.74%
IDX30…499.33 +0.75%
IDX80…134.19 +0.70%
IDXEnergy…2111.75 +25.40 +1.22%
IDX BscMat 1268.27 +4.25 +0.34%
IDX Indstrl…1162.67 -2.72 -0.23%
IDXNONCYC..758.78 +3.69 +0.49%
IDX Hlthcare1612.13 +29.29+1.86%
IDXCYCLIC…846.65 -1.94 -0.23%
IDX Techno5600.51 +17.84 +0.32%
IDX Transp1854.72 +18.36 +1.03%
IDX Infrast….860.38 +2.80 +0.33 %
IDX Finance1436.09 +3.36 +0.23%
IDX Banking1175.94 +5.13 +0.44%
IDX Property….703 -1.50 -0.21%
Indo10Yr.6.7693+0.0202+0.30%
ICBI..350.6210 -0.0916 -0.03%
US10Yr.3.7610 +0.0440 +1.18%
VIX……18.91 -1.43 -7.09%👍

USDIndx103.2690-0.036 -0.03%
Como Indx.273.56 +0.77 +0.28%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..164.34 -0.19 -0.11%
.
IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15166.50 -38.00 -0.25%
Jisdor.15216.00 -48.00 -0.32%

Euro……1.0735 +0.0014 +0.11%

TLKM….25.39 +0.08 +0.32%
(3863)
EIDO……23.51 +0.12 +0.51%
EEM……40.45 -0.07 -0.17%

Oil……..79.06 -1.08 -1.36%
Gold 1865.40 +1.90 +0.10%
Timah 27528 +179.00 +0.65%
(Closed 02/13)
Nickel.26487.50 +29.00 +0.11%
(Closed 02/14)
Silver…….21.87 +0.02 +0.10%
Copper..407.50 +1.75 +0.43%

Nturl Gas.2.601 +0.162 +6.64%‼️

Ammonia4406.67 +300.0 +7.31%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(02/13)

Coal price.219.50 -1.50 -0.61%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price194.50 -4.25 -2.13%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price 192.90 -4.20 -2.13%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price 194.10 -4.50 -2.26%
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.134.00 +2.00 +1.52%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.75 +3.25 +2.53%
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price130.75 +1.85 +1.44%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price130.75 +0.80 +0.62%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(Apr)….3955 +21 +0.53%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..679.75 -2.50 -0.37%
SoybeanOil..60.53 +0.29 +0.48%
Wheat…….796.75 -4.00 -0.50%

Wood pulp…6060.00 -20 -0.33%
(Closed 02/14)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia, D’Origin
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Wah, US balik merah walau nasdaq ijo, europe tipis2, asia ijo kecuali hangseng. Prepare merah lagi tudei

oil merah, gas ijo tebel, coal NCF merah Rotterdam ijo, kemaren coal drop saham coal naik, nurut teknikal, ga tau hari ini, semoga masih melawan gravitasi. Metal2 ijo semua, kita cermati apa sudah waktunya entry lagi di basic materials versi tambang logam ANTM MDKA INCO TINS dkk. CPO rebound dikit, tunggu buy signal aja

IHSG – foreign nett buylag, BD acc, MFI sw, stoch buy, MACD up lagi, w% masih says up, semoga kalopun koreksi minor aja. Masih jadwal wave 3, cuma masih berat breakout resistance

Healthcare, Consumer Cyclicals, Infrastructure

Stoch Buy Signal: ESSA SMGR SRTG TLKM ABMM GGRM MTMH MYOR

MACD Buy Signal: MIKA

Alligator Buy Signal: BABP

Supertrend screener MYOR ENRG