Posts Tagged ‘invest’

Daily Analysis 20230220

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 20th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 100 points higher on Friday, but notches third straight week of losses on rate fears: Live updates

U.S. stocks were mixed on Friday as stubbornly high inflation and a rebound in rates continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Dow…….33827 +129.8 +0.39%
Nasdaq.11787 -68.6 -0.58%
S&P 500..4079 -11.3 -0.28%

FTSE…….8004 -8.1 -0.10%
Dax……..15482 -51.6 -0.33%
CAC……..7348 -18.4 -0.25%

Nikkei…..27513 -183.3 -0.66%
HSI………20720 -267.9 -1.28%
Shanghai..3224 -25.01 -0.77%

IDX…..6895.71 +0.05 +0.05%
LQ45….954.38 +0.89 +0.09%
IDX30…496.30 +0.62 +0.12%

IDXEnergy…2082.24 -15.90 -0.76%
IDX BscMat 1250.68 -9.82 -0.78%
IDX Indstrl…1155.18 -2.51 -0.22%
IDXNONCYC..759.27 +3.86 +0.51%
IDX Hlthcare1615.73 +10.34+0.64%
IDXCYCLIC…844.41 -5.31 -0.63%
IDX Techno5613.44 +27.60 +0.49%
IDX Transp1841.68 -5.26 -0.28%
IDX Infrast….865.21 -1.82 -0.21 %
IDX Finance1427.65 +4.48 +0.32%
IDX Banking1162.24 +5.43 +0.47%
IDX Property….697 – -%

Indo10Yr.6.7641 -0.0056 -0.08%
ICBI..350.7567 +0.1073 +0.03%
US10Yr.3.8280 -0.0150 -0.39%
VIX……20.02 -0.15 -0.74%

USDIndx104.0500+0.2289+0.21%‼️
Como Indx.267.57 -2.68 -0.99%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..163.14 -0.34 -0.21%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15210.00 +51.00 +0.34%‼️
Jisdor.15199.00 +23.00 +0.15%‼️

Euro……1.0686 -0.0004 -0.04%

TLKM….24.86 -0.01 -0.04%
(3778)
EIDO……23.18 -0.11 -0.47%
EEM……39.68 -0.44 -1.10%

Oil…….76.34 -2.15 -2.74%
Gold 1850.20 -1.60 -0.09%
Timah 25856 -1148.00 -4.25%‼️
(Closed 02/17)
Nickel.26647.00 -967.50 -3.63%‼️
(Closed 02/17)
Silver…….21.86 -0.01 -0.06%
Copper..410.50 -1.65 -0.40%

Nturl Gas.2.300 -0.093 -3.88%‼️

Ammonia 4323.33 -83.34 -1.89%
China
(Domestic Price)(02/16)

Coal price.209.35 -4.65 -2.17%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price183.00 -3.30 -1.77%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price180.65 -3.30 -1.79%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price182.40 -3.05 -1.64%
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.136.50 -0.50 -0.36%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 136.20-2.80 -2.01%
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price134.95 -2.05 -1.50%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price134.30 -3.10 -2.26%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(May)….4136 +66 +1.62%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..677.50 +2.50 +0.37%
SoybeanOil..61.75 -0.40 -0.64%
Wheat…….776.25 unch +0%

Wood pulp…6030.00 unch +0%
(Closed 02/19)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Era9wati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Semua merah kecuali Dollar Index dan DJI, Kospi dan IDX ijo tipis, almost doji. Not good, tapi asal major uptrend malah jadi waktunya belanja

Semua commodity juga merah kecuali CPO, pas buat AALI sama LSIP untuk finally jalan

IHSG – belum berhasil breakout resistance, masih NFS, BD flat, MACD sell, Stoch sw, MFI down, ST up alligator up, w% sw, masih sideways dulu kayanya, dengan big banks LK bagus optimis major tetep uptrend, tapi hati2 sell-off pemain teknikal bisa banting karena pada exit liat MACD sell

Healthcare, Infrastructure (versi telco and tower provider, bukan BUMN karya), Energy (versi coal)

Stochastic Buy Signal: GOTO INDY TOWR AALI AGRO ASSA DSNG JSMR PNLF AFMG

JSMR very big accumulation

MACD Buy Signal: AFMG

Alligator Buy Signal: BRIS

Supertrend Buy Signal: GOTO

Using Bullish Candlestick Patterns to Buy Stocks

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

[ad_1]

Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart for tracking the movement of securities. They have their origins in the centuries-old Japanese rice trade and have made their way into modern-day price charting. Some investors find them more visually appealing than the standard bar charts and the price actions easier to interpret.

Candlesticks are so named because the rectangular shape and lines on either end resemble a candle with wicks. Each candlestick usually represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock. Over time, the candlesticks group into recognizable patterns that investors can use to make buying and selling decisions.

Key Takeaways

  • Candlestick charts are useful for technical day traders to identify patterns and make trading decisions.
  • Bullish candlesticks indicate entry points for long trades, and can help predict when a downtrend is about to turn around to the upside.
  • Here, we go over several examples of bullish candlestick patterns to look out for.

Click Play to Learn How to Use Bullish Candlestick Patterns to Buy Stock

How to Read a Single Candlestick

Each candlestick represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock through four pieces of information: the opening price, the closing price, the high price, and the low price. The color of the central rectangle (called the real body) tells investors whether the opening price or the closing price was higher.

A black or filled candlestick means the closing price for the period was less than the opening price; hence, it is bearish and indicates selling pressure. Meanwhile, a white or hollow candlestick means that the closing price was greater than the opening price. This is bullish and shows buying pressure.

The lines at both ends of a candlestick are called shadows, and they show the entire range of price action for the day, from low to high. The upper shadow shows the stock’s highest price for the day, and the lower shadow shows the lowest price for the day.

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020


Bullish Candlestick Patterns

Over time, groups of daily candlesticks fall into recognizable patterns with descriptive names like three white soldiers, dark cloud cover, hammer, morning star, and abandoned baby, to name just a few. Patterns form over a period of one to four weeks and are a source of valuable insight into a stock’s future price action. Before we delve into individual bullish candlestick patterns, note the following two principles:

  1. Bullish reversal patterns should form within a downtrend. Otherwise, it’s not a bullish pattern, but a continuation pattern.
  2. Most bullish reversal patterns require bullish confirmation. In other words, they must be followed by an upside price move which can come as a long hollow candlestick or a gap up and be accompanied by high trading volume. This confirmation should be observed within three days of the pattern.

The bullish reversal patterns can further be confirmed through other means of traditional technical analysis—like trend lines, momentum, oscillators, or volume indicators—to reaffirm buying pressure. There are a great many candlestick patterns that indicate an opportunity to buy. We will focus on five bullish candlestick patterns that give the strongest reversal signal.

1. The Hammer or the Inverted Hammer

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2021


  • The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which signals that a stock is nearing the bottom in a downtrend.
  • The body of the candle is short with a longer lower shadow. This is a sign of sellers driving prices lower during the trading session, only to be followed by strong buying pressure to end the session on a higher close.
  • Before we jump in on the bullish reversal action, however, we must confirm the upward trend by watching it closely for the next few days.
  • The reversal must also be validated through the rise in the trading volume.

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2021


The Inverted Hammer also forms in a downtrend and represents a likely trend reversal or support.

  • It’s identical to the Hammer except for the longer upper shadow, which indicates buying pressure after the opening price.
  • This is followed by considerable selling pressure, which wasn’t enough to bring the price down below its opening value.

Again, bullish confirmation is required, and it can come in the form of a long hollow candlestick or a gap up, accompanied by a heavy trading volume.

2. The Bullish Engulfing

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020

The Bullish Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern.

  • The Bullish Engulfing pattern appears in a downtrend and is a combination of one dark candle followed by a larger hollow candle.
  • The second candle completely ‘engulfs’ the real body of the first one, without regard to the length of the tail shadows.
  • On the second day of the pattern, the price opens lower than the previous low, yet buying pressure pushes the price up to a higher level than the previous high, culminating in an obvious win for the buyers.

It is advisable to enter a long position when the price moves higher than the high of the second engulfing candle—in other words when the downtrend reversal is confirmed.

3. The Piercing Line

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020

Similar to the engulfing pattern, the Piercing Line is a two-candle bullish reversal pattern, also occurring in downtrends.

  • The first long black candle is followed by a white candle that opens lower than the previous close.
  • Soon thereafter, the buying pressure pushes the price up halfway or more (preferably two-thirds of the way) into the real body of the black candle.

4. The Morning Star

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2020

As the name indicates, the Morning Star is a sign of hope and a new beginning in a gloomy downtrend.

  • The pattern consists of three candles: one short-bodied candle (called a doji or a spinning top) between a preceding long black candle and a succeeding long white one.
  • The color of the real body of the short candle can be either white or black, and there is no overlap between its body and that of the black candle before. It shows that the selling pressure that was there the day before is now subsiding.
  • The third white candle overlaps with the body of the black candle and shows renewed buyer pressure and a start of a bullish reversal, especially if confirmed by the higher volume.

5. The Three White Soldiers

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2021


This pattern is usually observed after a period of downtrend or in price consolidation.

  • It consists of three long white candles that close progressively higher on each subsequent trading day.
  • Each candle opens higher than the previous open and closes near the high of the day, showing a steady advance of buying pressure.
  • Investors should exercise caution when white candles appear to be too long as that may attract short sellers and push the price of the stock further down. 

While there are some ways to predict markets, technical analysis is not always a perfect indication of performance. Either way, to invest you’ll need a broker account. You can check out Investopedia’s list of the best online stock brokers to get an idea of the top choices in the industry.

Putting It All Together

The chart below for Enbridge, Inc. (ENB) shows three of the bullish reversal patterns discussed above: the Inverted Hammer, the Piercing Line, and the Hammer.

The chart for Pacific DataVision, Inc. (PDVW) shows the Three White Soldiers pattern. Note how the reversal in downtrend is confirmed by the sharp increase in the trading volume.

What Is the Most Bullish Candlestick Pattern?

The bullish engulfing pattern and the ascending triangle pattern are considered among the most favorable candlestick patterns. As with other forms of technical analysis, it is important to look for bullish confirmation and understand that there are no guaranteed results.

What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern?

A spinning top, or doji, is a candlestick with a short body and two long shadows, indicating that prices fluctuated over the course of a trading period before ultimately closing near the opening price. In technical analysis, this indicates that neither buyers or sellers have the upper hand.

What Is a Bullish Belt Hold Candlestick Pattern?

A bullish belt hold is a pattern of declining prices, followed by a trading period of significant gains. In technical analysis, this is considered a sign of reversal after a downtrend. As with other forms of technical analysis, traders should be careful to wait for bullish confirmation. Even with confirmation, there is no guarantee that a pattern will play out.

The Bottom Line

Investors should use candlestick charts like any other technical analysis tool (i.e., to study the psychology of market participants in the context of stock trading). They provide an extra layer of analysis on top of the fundamental analysis that forms the basis for trading decisions.

We looked at five of the more popular candlestick chart patterns that signal buying opportunities. They can help identify a change in trader sentiment where buyer pressure overcomes seller pressure. Such a downtrend reversal can be accompanied by a potential for long gains. That said, the patterns themselves do not guarantee that the trend will reverse. Investors should always confirm reversal by the subsequent price action before initiating a trade. 

[ad_2]

Source link

Daily Analysis 20230217

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

February 17th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes 400 points lower as hot inflation report, comments from Fed’s Bullard raise rate hike fears

Stocks fell Thursday after another hot inflation report, and a decline in jobless claims, showed the economy is holding up amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Dow…….33697 -431.2 -1.26%
Nasdaq.11856 -214.8 -1.78%
S&P 500..4090 -57.2 -1.38%

FTSE…….8013 +14.70 +0.18%
Dax……..15534 +27.3 +0.18%
CAC……..7366 +65.3 +0.89%

Nikkei…..27696 +194.6 +0.71%
HSI………20988 +175.5 +0.84%
Shanghai..3249 -31.5 -0.96%

IDX…..6895.66 -18.87 -0.27%
LQ45….953.49 -4.15 -0.43%
IDX30…495.68 -2.19 -0.44%

IDXEnergy…2098.15 -11.47 -0.54%
IDX BscMat 1260.50 -1.75 -0.14%
IDX Indstrl…1157.69 -0.67 -0.06%
IDXNONCYC..755.41 -4.04 -0.53%
IDX Hlthcare1605.40 -11.73 -0.73%
IDXCYCLIC…849.72 +4.64 +0.55%
IDX Techno5585.84 +57.44 +1.04%
IDX Transp1846.95 +15.38 +0.84%
IDX Infrast….867.03 +7.94 +0.92 %
IDX Finance1423.17 -3.19 -0.22%
IDX Banking1156.81 -8.52 -0.73%
IDX Property….697 -0.30 -0.05%

Indo10Yr.6.7698 -0.0076 -0.11%
ICBI..350.6495 +0.1943 +0.06%
US10Yr.3.8430 +0.0340 +0.89%
VIX……20.17 +1.94 +10.64%‼️

USDIndx104.0500+0.2289+0.21%‼️
Como Indx.270.25 -0.13 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..163.48 +1.63 +1.01%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15206.50 +39.50 +0.26%
Jisdor.15176.00 -18.00 -0.12%

Euro……1.0690 -0.0045 -0.42%

TLKM….24.87 -0.09 -0.36%
(3774)
EIDO……23.29 -0.11 -0.47%
EEM……40.12 +0.01 +0.02%

Oil……..78.49 -0.10 -0.13%
Gold 1851.80 +6.50 +0.35%
Timah 26658 -159.00 -0.59%
(Closed 02/15)
Nickel.26647.00 +620.90 +2.38%‼️
(Closed 02/16)
Silver…….21.71 +0.14 +0.64%
Copper..412.15 +10.00 +2.49%

Nturl Gas.2.394 -0.072 -2.92%

Ammonia4406.67 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(02/15)

Coal price.214.00 -5.90 -2.68%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price186.30 -9.70 -4.95%‼️
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price183.95 -11.45 -5.86%‼️
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price185.45 -11.65 -5.91%‼️
(Mei/Newcastle)

Coal price.137.00 +0.50 +0.37%
(Feb/Rotterdam)
Coal price 139.00-3.00 -2.11%
(Mar/ Rotterdam)
Coal price137.00 -3.00 -2.14%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price137.40 -1.60 -1.15%
(May/Rotterdam)

CPO(May)….4070 +126 +3.19%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..675.00 +1.00 +0.15%
SoybeanOil..62.15 +0.71 +1.16%
Wheat…….776.25 -4.00. -0.51%

Wood pulp…6030.00 -20 -0.33%
(Closed 02/16)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Era9wati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah rada dalem, europe market closing masih ijo asia varied, IHSG merah lagi

CPO naik tinggi, itu kayanya kemaren AALI LSIP naik tinggi… Oil merah, gas drop, coal drop, metal2 naik semua, watchout for ANTM MDKA INCO

IHSG – 2 hari NFS, belum jadi break resistance, masih SW dulu. stoch down, MACD sell, MFI sw, bd sw, jangan terlalu aggresive dulu, cermati yang lagi hajatan aja. Major trend masih up, wave 3, tapi belum lari. Kayanya nunggu resmi laporan keuangan big bank keluar semua dulu

Tinggal infrastructure yang arahnya bagus, healthcare melemah juga

Stoch Buy Signal: ASII TINS BRMS LSIP WIFI

MACD Buy Signal: GOTO INDY SRTG AALI ASSA LSIP

Alligator Buy Signal: INDF AGII BRMS MLPL IGAR

Supertrend: MTEL AALI LSIP WIFI

What Is Platykurtic? Definition, Examples and Other Distributions

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

[ad_1]

What Does Platykurtic Mean?

The term “platykurtic” refers to a statistical distribution in which the excess kurtosis value is negative. For this reason, a platykurtic distribution will have thinner tails than a normal distribution will, resulting in fewer extreme positive or negative events. The opposite of a platykurtic distribution is a leptokurtic distribution, in which excess kurtosis is positive.

Investors will consider which statistical distributions are associated with different types of investments when deciding where to invest. More risk-averse investors might prefer assets and markets with platykurtic distributions because those assets are less likely to produce extreme results.

Key Takeaways

  • Platykurtic distributions are those with negative excess kurtosis.
  • They have a lower likelihood of extreme events compared to a normal distribution.
  • To minimize the risk of large negative events, risk-averse investors can focus on investments whose returns follow a platykurtic distribution.

Understanding Platykurtic Distributions

There are three basic kinds of statistical distributions: leptokurtic, mesokurtic, and platykurtic. These distributions differ depending on their amount of excess kurtosis, which relates to the probability of extreme positive or negative events. The normal distribution, which is a type of mesokurtic distribution, has a kurtosis of three. Therefore, distributions with kurtosis greater than three are said to have “positive excess kurtosis,” while those with kurtosis of less than three are said to have “negative excess kurtosis.”

Though mesokurtic distributions have a kurtosis of three, leptokurtic and platykurtic distributions have positive and negative excess kurtosis, respectively. Therefore, leptokurtic distributions have a relatively high probability of extreme events, whereas the opposite is true for platykurtic distributions.

The following figures show charts of these three types of distributions, all with the same standard deviation. Although the figure on the left does not reveal much of the differences between these distributions’ tails, the figure on the right gives a clearer view by plotting the quantiles of the distributions against each other. This technique is known as a quantile-quantile plot, or Q-Q for short.

Kurtosis.
Investopedia 

Special Considerations

Most investors believe that equity market returns more closely resemble a leptokurtic distribution than a platykurtic one. That is, while most returns are likely to be similar to the average return for the market as a whole, returns will occasionally deviate widely from the mean. These dramatic and unpredictable events, sometimes referred to as black swans, are less likely to occur in markets that are platykurtic.

For this reason, more cautious investors might avoid investing in leptokurtic markets and focus on investments offering platykurtic returns. On the other hand, some investors deliberately pursue investments with leptokurtic returns, believing that their extreme positive returns will more than compensate for their extreme negative returns.

Real-World Example of a Platykurtic Distribution

Morningstar published a research paper that featured information on the excess kurtosis levels of different types of assets, as observed between February 1994 and June 2011. The list included a wide range of investments, from U.S. and international equities to real estate, commodities, cash, and bonds.

The levels of excess kurtosis were similarly varied. On the low end of the spectrum were cash and international bonds, which had excess kurtosis of -1.43 and 0.58, respectively. On the other end of the spectrum were U.S. high-yield bonds and hedge-fund arbitrage strategies, offering excess kurtosis of 9.33 and 22.59.

Asset classes with intermediate levels of excess kurtosis included international real estate (2.61), equities from international emerging economies (1.98), and commodities (2.29).

An investor looking at this data could quickly discern what kinds of assets they wish to invest in, given their tolerance for potential black swan events. Risk-averse investors who want to minimize the likelihood of extreme events could focus on low-kurtosis investments, while investors more comfortable with extreme events could focus on high-kurtosis ones.

[ad_2]

Source link