Posts Tagged ‘Individual’

Debunking 8 Myths About Technical Analysis

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Some traders and investors denounce technical analysis (TA) as a superficial study of charts and patterns without any concrete, conclusive or profitable results. Others believe it is a sort of Holy Grail that once mastered will unleash sizable profits. These opposing viewpoints have led to misconceptions about technical analysis and how it is used.  

Technical analysis tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities. Contrary to fundamental analysis, technical analysts do not necessarily care much about the companies behind the stocks they trade or their profitability.

Some misconceptions about technical analysis are based on education and training. For example, a trader trained in using only fundamentals may not trust technical analysis at all. But that doesn’t mean someone who is trained in technical analysis can’t use it profitably.

Other TA assumptions are based on bad experiences. For example, the incorrect use of technical indicators often leads to losses. That doesn’t mean the method is necessarily wrong; possibly the person just needs more practice and training. The negative sentiment can be perpetuated by unscrupulous marketing, promising overnight riches if a simple TA indicator is bought and used. It rarely is that easy.

Here are eight common technical analysis myths—and why they simply aren’t true. 

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analysis (TA) tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities.
  • Many opponents of TA subscribe to myths about the strategy.
  • Common myths about TA include it being only for day trading and only used by individual traders.
  • Other myths include the idea that TA is quick and easy, with all decisions made by software.
  • Some erroneously expect TA to make precise price predictions and be equally appropriate across all financial markets.

1. Technical Analysis Is Only for Short-Term Trading or Day Trading

It is a common myth that technical analysis is only appropriate for short-term and computer-driven trading like day trading and high-frequency trades. Technical analysis existed and was practiced before computers were common, and some of the pioneers in technical analysis were long-term investors and traders, not day traders. Technical analysis is used by traders on all time frames, from one-minute charts to weekly and monthly charts.

2. Only Individual Traders Use Technical Analysis 

While individuals do use technical analysis, hedge funds and investment banks make ample use of technical analysis as well. Investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis. High-frequency trading, which encompasses a significant amount of the trading volume on the stock exchanges, is heavily dependent on technical concepts. 

3. Technical Analysis Has a Low Success Rate

A look at the list of successful market traders, who have decades of trading experience, debunks this myth. Successful trader interviews have cited significant numbers of traders who owe their success to technical analysis and patterns. For example, Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders (Wiley, 2012) by Jack D. Schwager features interviews with many professionals who’ve profited solely by using technical analysis.

4. Technical Analysis Is Quick and Easy 

The internet is full of technical analysis courses that promise trading success. Though many individuals enter the trading world by placing their first trade based on simple technical indicators, continued success in trading requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline. It requires dedicated time, knowledge, and attention. Technical analysis is only a tool, only one piece of the puzzle.

5. Ready-Made Technical Analysis Software Can Help Traders Make Easy Money 

Unfortunately, this is not true. There are many online ads for cheap and costly software that claims to do all your analysis for you. In addition, less-experienced traders sometimes confuse technical analysis tools in broker-provided trading software for trading models that will guarantee profit. Though technical analysis software provides insights about trends and patterns, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee profits. It’s up to the trader to correctly interpret trends and data.

6. Technical Indicators Can Be Applied Across All Markets

While technical analysis can be applied to many markets, specific asset classes have specific requirements. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and bonds all have differences. There may be time-dependent patterns like high volatility in futures and options nearing expiry, or seasonal patterns in commodities. Don’t make the mistake of applying technical indicators intended for one asset class to another.

7. Technical Analysis Can Provide Precise Price Predictions 

Many novices expect recommendations from technical analysts or software patterns to be 100% precise. For example, inexperienced traders may expect a prediction as specific as, “stock ABC will reach $62 in two months.” However, experienced technical analysts usually avoid quoting prices so specifically. Rather they tend to quote a range such as, “stock A could move in the range of $59 to $64 in the next two to three months.”

Traders betting their money on technical recommendations should be aware that technical analysis provides a predictive range, not an exact number. Technical analysis is also about probability and likelihoods, not guarantees. If something works more often than not, even though it doesn’t work all the time, it can still be very effective at generating profits.

8. The Winning Rate in Technical Analysis Should Be Higher

It’s a common myth that a high percentage of winning trades is needed for profitability. However, that is not always the case. Assume Peter makes four winning trades out of five, while Molly makes one winning trade out of five. Who is more successful? Most people would say Peter, but we don’t actually know until we get more information. Profitability is a combination of win rate and risk/reward. If Peter makes $20 on his winners but is down $80 from his one loss, he ends up with $0. If Molly makes $50 on her win and losses $10 on her losses, she walks away with $10. She is better off, even with fewer wins. Proper trade structuring allows for profitability even with few winners

The Bottom Line

Technical analysis provides a large basket of tools and concepts for trading. There are successful traders who don’t use it, and there are successful traders who do. Some believe technical analysis is the best way to trade, while others claim it is misguided and lacks a theoretical basis.

Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn’t guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.

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Appraisal Management Company (AMC): What it is in Real Estate

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Appraisal Management Company (AMC): What it is in Real Estate

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What Is an Appraisal Management Company (AMC)?

An Appraisal Management Company (AMC) is an independent entity through which mortgage lenders order residential real estate valuation services for properties on which they are considering extending loans to homebuyers.

AMCs fulfill an administrative function in the appraisal process, including selecting an appraiser and delivering the appraisal report to the lender. Individual appraisers who work for AMCs provide the actual property valuation services.

Key Takeaways

  • An Appraisal Management Company (AMC) is an independent real estate appraisal company hired by a lender to perform valuations on potentially mortgaged properties.
  • AMCs select state-licensed or state-qualified appraisers to valuate properties and deliver appraisal reports to lenders.
  • Customers seeking a mortgage on a prospective property, lenders, and mortgage brokers cannot choose the appraiser.
  • The U.S. government developed appraiser independence guidelines, restricting the influence lenders have on appraisers.

Understanding Appraisal Management Companies (AMC)

AMCs have been a part of the real estate landscape for the past 50 years. However, their numbers remained limited until the financial crisis of 2007 to 2008.

In 2009, the New York Attorney General, government-sponsored enterprises Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) established the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) appraisal guidelines. The HVCC guidelines, no longer on the books, laid the foundation for the appraiser independence found in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the Truth in Lending Act. Laws obligating lenders to use independent appraisers led to a sharp rise in the use and number of AMCs.

The HVCC and later federal regulation sought to limit the amount of direct contact that lenders could have with appraisers. Essentially, the U.S. federal government created appraiser independence requirements to prevent lenders from influencing appraisers to inflate property values, a problem believed to have contributed to the housing crisis.

With an AMC, mortgage brokers, loan officers, nor homeowners may select the appraiser for the property on which they want to lend/borrow funds. Since the former parties have a financial interest in the transaction, there is a risk they might attempt to influence the appraiser to assign a higher value to the property than market conditions support so the transaction will go through.

When the system works correctly, the AMC chooses an appraiser with local knowledge of the market for the property being appraised.

Appraisal Management Company (AMC) Requirements

AMCs maintain a pool of state-licensed or state-qualified appraisers to meet requests from lending institutions. An appraiser is then assigned to provide an appraisal report for the property.

AMC appraisers are not provided with any prior information regarding the property or put in contact with the lending institution. The appraiser’s assessment must meet the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) guidelines. If there are any issues, the AMC can legally assist.

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Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Definition

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Arrow's Impossibility Theorem Definition

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What is Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem?

Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a social-choice paradox illustrating the flaws of ranked voting systems. It states that a clear order of preferences cannot be determined while adhering to mandatory principles of fair voting procedures. Arrow’s impossibility theorem, named after economist Kenneth J. Arrow, is also known as the general impossibility theorem.

Key Takeaways

  • Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a social-choice paradox illustrating the impossibility of having an ideal voting structure.
  • It states that a clear order of preferences cannot be determined while adhering to mandatory principles of fair voting procedures.
  • Kenneth J. Arrow won a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his findings.

Click Play to Learn the Definition of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

Understanding Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

Democracy depends on people’s voices being heard. For example, when it is time for a new government to be formed, an election is called, and people head to the polls to vote. Millions of voting slips are then counted to determine who is the most popular candidate and the next elected official.

According to Arrow’s impossibility theorem, in all cases where preferences are ranked, it is impossible to formulate a social ordering without violating one of the following conditions:

  • Nondictatorship: The wishes of multiple voters should be taken into consideration.
  • Pareto Efficiency: Unanimous individual preferences must be respected: If every voter prefers candidate A over candidate B, candidate A should win.
  • Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives: If a choice is removed, then the others’ order should not change: If candidate A ranks ahead of candidate B, candidate A should still be ahead of candidate B, even if a third candidate, candidate C, is removed from participation. 
  • Unrestricted Domain: Voting must account for all individual preferences.
  • Social Ordering: Each individual should be able to order the choices in any way and indicate ties.

Arrow’s impossibility theorem, part of social choice theory, an economic theory that considers whether a society can be ordered in a way that reflects individual preferences, was lauded as a major breakthrough. It went on to be widely used for analyzing problems in welfare economics. 

Example of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

Let’s look at an example illustrating the type of problems highlighted by Arrow’s impossibility theorem. Consider the following example, where voters are asked to rank their preference of three projects that the country’s annual tax dollars could be used for: A; B; and C. This country has 99 voters who are each asked to rank the order, from best to worst, for which of the three projects should receive the annual funding.

  • 33 votes A > B > C (1/3 prefer A over B and prefer B over C)
  • 33 votes B > C > A (1/3 prefer B over C and prefer C over A)
  • 33 votes C > A > B (1/3 prefer C over A and prefer A over B)

Therefore,

  • 66 voters prefer A over B
  • 66 voters prefer B over C
  • 66 voters prefer C over A

So a two-thirds majority of voters prefer A over B and B over C and C over A—a paradoxical result based on the requirement to rank order the preferences of the  three alternatives.

Arrow’s theorem indicates that if the conditions cited above in this article i.e. Non-dictatorship, Pareto efficiency, independence of irrelevant alternatives, unrestricted domain, and social ordering are to be part of the decision making criteria then it is impossible to formulate a social ordering on a problem such as indicated above without violating one of the following conditions.

Arrow’s impossibility theorem is also applicable when voters are asked to rank political candidates. However, there are other popular voting methods, such as approval voting or plurality voting, that do not use this framework.

History of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

The theorem is named after economist Kenneth J. Arrow. Arrow, who had a long teaching career at Harvard University and Stanford University, introduced the theorem in his doctoral thesis and later popularized it in his 1951 book Social Choice and Individual Values. The original paper, titled A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare, earned him the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1972.

Arrow’s research has also explored the social choice theory, endogenous growth theory, collective decision making, the economics of information, and the economics of racial discrimination, among other topics.

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Accrued Income: Money Earned But Not Yet Received

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Accrued Income: Money Earned But Not Yet Received

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What Is Accrued Income?

Accrued income is the money a company has earned in the ordinary course of business but has yet to be received, and for which the invoice is yet to be billed to the customer.

Mutual funds or other pooled assets that accumulate income over a period of time—but only pay shareholders once a year—are, by definition, accruing their income. Individual companies can also generate income without actually receiving it, which is the basis of the accrual accounting system.

Key Takeaways

  • Accrued income is revenue that’s been earned, but has yet to be received.
  • Both individuals and companies can receive accrued income.
  • Although it is not yet in hand, accrued income is recorded on the books when it is earned, in accordance with the accrual accounting method.

Understanding Accrued Income

Most companies use accrual accounting. It is an alternative to the cash accounting method and is necessary for companies that sell products or provide services to customers on credit. Under the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), accrual accounting is based on the revenue recognition principle. This principle seeks to match revenues to the period in which they were earned, rather than the period in which cash is received.

In other words, just because money has not yet been received, it does not mean that revenue has not been earned.

The matching principle also requires that revenue be recognized in the same period as the expenses that were incurred in earning that revenue. Also referred to as accrued revenue, accrued income is often used in the service industry or in cases in which customers are charged an hourly rate for work that has been completed but will be billed in a future accounting period. Accrued income is listed in the asset section of the balance sheet because it represents a future benefit to the company in the form of a future cash payout.

In 2014, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which establishes regulations for U.S. businesses and non-profits, introduced “Accounting Standards Code Topic 606 Revenue from Contracts with Customers” to provide an industry-neutral revenue recognition model to increase financial statement comparability across companies and industries. Public companies were required to apply the new revenue recognition rules beginning in Q1 2018. The FASB also issued the following amendments to ASU No. 2014-09 to provide clarification on the guidance:

-ASU No. 2015-14, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) – Deferral of the Effective Date

-ASU No. 2016-08, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) – Principal versus Agent Considerations (Reporting Revenue Gross Versus Net)

-ASU No. 2016-10, Revenue from Contracts with Customers(Topic 606) – Identifying Performance Obligations and Licensing

-ASU No. 2016-12, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) – Narrow-Scope Improvements and Practical Expedients 

Examples of Accrued Income

Assume Company A picks up trash for local communities and bills its customers $300 at the end of every six-month cycle. Even though Company A does not receive payment for six months, the company still records a $50 debit to accrued income and a $50 credit to revenue each month. The bill has not been sent out, but the work has been performed, and therefore expenses have already been incurred and revenue earned.

When cash is received for the service at the end of six months, a $300 credit in the amount of the full payment is made to accrued income, and a $300 debit is made to cash. The balance in accrued income returns to zero for that customer.

Accrued income also applies to individuals and their paychecks. The income that a worker earns usually accrues over a period of time. For example, many salaried employees are paid by their company every two weeks; they do not get paid at the end of each workday. At the end of the pay cycle, the employee is paid and the accrued amount returns to zero. If they leave the company, they still have pay that has been earned but has not yet been disbursed.

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