What Is the Aroon Indicator?

The Aroon indicator is a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes in the price of an asset, as well as the strength of that trend. In essence, the indicator measures the time between highs and the time between lows over a time period. The idea is that strong uptrends will regularly see new highs, and strong downtrends will regularly see new lows. The indicator signals when this is happening, and when it isn’t.

The indicator consists of the “Aroon up” line, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the “Aroon down” line, which measures the strength of the downtrend.

The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande in 1995.

Formulas for the Aroon Indicator


$\begin{aligned} \text{Aroon Up}&= \frac{25-\text{Periods Since 25 period High}}{25} \ast100\\ \text{Aroon Down}&=\frac{25-\text{Periods Since 25 period Low}}{25}\ast100 \end{aligned}$Aroon UpAroon Down​=2525−Periods Since 25 period High​∗100=2525−Periods Since 25 period Low​∗100​

How to Calculate the Aroon Indicator

The Aroon calculation requires the tracking of the high and low prices, typically over 25 periods.

1. Track the highs and lows for the last 25 periods on an asset.
2. Note the number of periods since the last high and low.
3. Plug these numbers into the Up and Down Aroon formulas.

What Does the Aroon Indicator Tell You?

The Aroon Up and the Aroon Down lines fluctuate between zero and 100, with values close to 100 indicating a strong trend and values near zero indicating a weak trend. The lower the Aroon Up, the weaker the uptrend and the stronger the downtrend, and vice versa. The main assumption underlying this indicator is that a stock’s price will close regularly at new highs during an uptrend, and regularly make new lows in a downtrend.

The indicator focuses on the last 25 periods, but is scaled to zero and 100. Therefore, an Aroon Up reading above 50 means the price made a new high within the last 12.5 periods. A reading near 100 means a high was seen very recently. The same concepts apply to the Down Aroon. When it is above 50, a low was witnessed within the 12.5 periods. A Down reading near 100 means a low was seen very recently.

Crossovers can signal entry or exit points. Up crossing above Down can be a signal to buy. Down crossing below Up may be a signal to sell.

When both indicators are below 50 it can signal that the price is consolidating. New highs or lows are not being created. Traders can watch for breakouts as well as the next Aroon crossover to signal which direction price is going.

Example of How to Use the Aroon Indicator

The following chart shows an example of the Aroon indicator and how it can be interpreted.

In the chart above, there is both the Aroon indicator and an oscillator that combines both lines into a single reading of between 100 and -100. The crossover of the Aroon Up and Aroon Down indicated a reversal in the trend. While the index was trending, prior to the reversal, the Aroon Down remained very low, suggesting that the index had a bullish bias. Despite the rally on the far right, the Aroon indicator hasn’t shown a bullish bias yet. This is because the price rebounded so quickly that it hasn’t made a new high in the last 25 periods (at the time of the screenshot), despite the rally.

The Difference Between the Aroon Indicator and the Directional Movement Index (DMI)

The Aroon indicator is similar to the Directional Movement Index (DMI) developed by Welles Wilder. It too uses up and down lines to show the direction of a trend. The main difference is that the Aroon indicator formulas are primarily focused on the amount of time between highs and lows. The DMI measures the price difference between current highs/lows and prior highs/lows. Therefore, the main factor in the DMI is price, and not time.

Limitations of Using the Aroon Indicator

The Aroon indicator may at times signal a good entry or exit, but other times it will provide poor or false signals. The buy or sell signal may occur too late, after a substantial price move has already occurred. This happens because the indicator is looking backwards, and isn’t predictive in nature.

A crossover may look good on the indicator, but that doesn’t mean the price will necessarily make a big move. The indicator isn’t factoring the size of moves, it only cares about the number of days since a high or low. Even if the price is relatively flat, crossovers will occur as eventually a new high or low will be made within the last 25 periods. Traders still need to use price analysis, and potentially other indicators, to make informed trading decisions. Relying solely on one indicator isn’t advised.

What Is Absolute Return?

Absolute return is the return that an asset achieves over a specified period. This measure looks at the appreciation or depreciation, expressed as a percentage, that an asset, such as a stock or a mutual fund, achieves over a given period.

Absolute return differs from relative return because it is concerned with the return of a particular asset and does not compare it to any other measure or benchmark.

How Absolute Return Works

Absolute return refers to the amount of funds that an investment has earned. Also referred to as the total return, the absolute return measures the gain or loss experienced by an asset or portfolio independent of any benchmark or other standard. Returns can be positive or negative and may be considered uncorrelated to other market activities.

Relative and Absolute Returns

In general, a mutual fund seeks to produce returns that are better than its peers, its fund category, and the market as a whole. This type of fund management is referred to as a relative return approach to fund investing. The success of the asset is often based on a comparison to a chosen benchmark, industry standard, or overall market performance.

As an investment vehicle, an absolute return fund seeks to make positive returns by employing investment management techniques that differ from traditional mutual funds. Absolute return investment strategies include using short selling, futures, options, derivatives, arbitrage, leverage, and unconventional assets. Absolute returns are examined separately from any other performance measure, so only gains or losses on the investment are considered.

The History of Absolute Return Funds

Alfred Winslow Jones is credited with forming the first absolute return fund in New York in 1949. In recent years, the absolute return approach to fund investing has become one of the fastest-growing investment products in the world and is more commonly referred to as a hedge fund.

Hedge Funds

A hedge fund is not a specific form of investment; it is an investment structured as a pool and set up as either a limited partnership or limited liability company (LLC). A hedge fund manager raises funds by working with outside investors. The manager uses the funds to invest based on a declared strategy involving only the purchase of long equities, such as common stock.

Hedge funds may specialize in specific areas, such as real estate or patents, and may also engage in private equity activities. While anyone may invest in a hedge fund, participants are traditionally accredited and sophisticated investors.

Example of Absolute Return

As a historical example, the Vanguard 500 Index ETF (VOO) delivered an absolute return of 150.15% over the 10-year period ending Dec. 31, 2017. This differed from its 10-year annualized return of 8.37% over the same period. Further, because the S&P 500 Index had an absolute return of 153.07% over the same period, absolute return differed from the relative return, which was -2.92%. 

What Is the 11th District Cost of Funds Index?

The 11th District Cost of Funds Index (COFI) is a monthly weighted average of the interest rates paid on checking and savings accounts offered by financial institutions operating in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It is one of many indices used by mortgage lenders to adjust the interest rate on adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) and was launched in 1981. With an ARM mortgage, the interest rate on a mortgage moves up and down along with some standard interest rate chosen by the lender, and COFI is one of the most popular indices in the western states.

Published on the last day of each month, the COFI represents the cost of funds for western savings institutions that are members of Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, a self-regulatory agency, and satisfy the Bank’s criteria for inclusion in the index.

Understanding the 11th District COFI

The 11th District Cost of Funds Index (COFI) is computed using several different factors, with interest paid on savings accounts comprising the largest weighting in the average. As a result, the index tends to have low volatility and follow market interest rate changes somewhat slowly; it is generally regarded as a two-month lagging indicator of market interest rates. The interest rate on a mortgage will not match the COFI, rather the ARM rate is typically 2% to 3% higher than COFI, depending on the borrower’s credit history, the size and terms of the loan, the ability of the borrower to negotiate with the bank and many other factors.

Because it is computed using data from three western states, the COFI is primarily used in the western U.S., while the 1-year Treasury index is the measure of choice in the eastern region. On April 30, the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco announced the COFI for March 2018 of 0.814%, slightly lower than February.

What Is the Arms Index (TRIN)?

The Arms Index, also called the Short-Term Trading Index (TRIN) is a technical analysis indicator that compares the number of advancing and declining stocks (AD Ratio) to advancing and declining volume (AD volume). It is used to gauge overall market sentiment. Richard W. Arms, Jr. invented it in 1967, and it measures the relationship between market supply and demand. It serves as a predictor of future price movements in the market, primarily on an intraday basis. It does this by generating overbought and oversold levels, which indicate when the index (and the majority of stocks in it) will change direction.

The Formula for Arms Index (TRIN) is:


$\begin{aligned} &\text{TRIN}\ =\ \frac{\text{Advancing Stocks/Declining Stocks}}{\text{Advancing Volume/Declining Volume}}\\ &\textbf{where:}\\ & \begin{aligned} \text{Advancing Stocks}\ =\ &\text{Number of stocks that are higher}\\ &\text{on the day}\end{aligned}\\ &\begin{aligned} \text{Declining Stocks}\ =\ &\text{Number of stocks that are lower}\\ &\text{on the day}\end{aligned}\\ &\begin{aligned} \text{Advancing Volume}\ =\ &\text{Total volume of all advancing}\\ &\text{stocks}\end{aligned}\\ &\begin{aligned}\text{Declining Volume}\ =\ &\text{Total volume of all declining}\\ &\text{stocks}\end{aligned} \end{aligned}$​TRIN = Advancing Volume/Declining VolumeAdvancing Stocks/Declining Stocks​where:Advancing Stocks = ​Number of stocks that are higher​Declining Stocks = ​Number of stocks that are lower​Advancing Volume = ​Total volume of all advancing​​

How to Calculate the Arms Index (TRIN)

TRIN is provided in many charting applications. To calculate by hand, use the following steps.

1. At set intervals, such as every five minutes or daily (or whatever interval is chosen), find the AD Ratio by dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks.
2. Divide total advancing volume by total declining volume to get AD Volume.
3. Divide the AD Ratio by AD Volume.
4. Record the result and plot on a graph.
5. Repeat the calculation at the next chosen time interval.
6. Connect multiple data points to form a graph and see how the TRIN moves over time.

What Does the Arms Index (TRIN) Tell You?

The Arms index seeks to provide a more dynamic explanation of overall movements in the composite value of stock exchanges, such as the NYSE or NASDAQ, by analyzing the strength and breadth of these movements.

An index value of 1.0 indicates that the ratio of AD Volume is equal to the AD Ratio. The market is said to be in a neutral state when the index equals 1.0, since the up volume is evenly distributed over the advancing issues and the down volume is evenly distributed over the declining issues.

Many analysts believe that the Arms Index provides a bullish signal when it’s less than 1.0, since there’s greater volume in the average up stock than the average down stock. In fact, some analysts have found that the long-term equilibrium for the index is below 1.0, potentially confirming that there is a bullish bias to the stock market.

On the other hand, a reading of greater than 1.0 is typically seen as a bearish signal, since there’s greater volume in the average down stock than the average up stock.

The farther away from 1.00 the Arms Index value is, the greater the contrast between buying and selling on that day. A value that exceeds 3.00 indicates an oversold market and that bearish sentiment is too dramatic. This could mean an upward reversal in prices/index is coming.

Conversely, a TRIN value that dips below 0.50 may indicate an overbought market and that bullish sentiment is overheating.

Traders look not only at the value of the indicator but also at how it changes throughout the day. They look for extremes in the index value for signs that the market may soon change directions.

The Difference Between the Arms Index (TRIN) and the Tick Index (TICK)

TRIN compares the number of advancing and declining stocks to the volume in both advancing and declining stocks. The Tick index compares the number of stocks making an uptick to the number of stocks making a downtick. The Tick Index is used to gauge intraday sentiment. The Tick Index does not factor volume, but extreme readings still signal potentially overbought or oversold conditions.

Limitations of Using the Arms Index (TRIN)

The Arms Index has a few mathematical peculiarities that traders and investors should be aware of when using it. Since the index emphasizes volume, inaccuracies arise when there isn’t as much advancing volume in advancing issues as expected. This may not be a typical situation, but it’s a situation that can arise and could potentially make the indicator unreliable.

Here are two examples of instances where problems may occur:

• Suppose that a very bullish day occurs where there are twice as many advancing issues as declining issues and twice as much advancing volume as declining volume. Despite the very bullish trading, the Arms Index would yield only a neutral value of (2/1)/(2/1) = 1.0, suggesting that the index’s reading may not be entirely accurate.
• Suppose that another bullish scenario occurs where there are three times as many advancing issues as declining issues and twice as much advancing volume than declining volume. In this case, the Arms Index would actually yield a bearish (3/1)/(2/1) = 1.5 reading, again suggesting an inaccuracy.

One way to solve this problem would be to separate the two components of the indicator into issues and volume instead of using them in the same equation. For instance, advancing issues divided by declining issues could show one trend, while advancing volume over declining volume could show a separate trend. These ratios are called the advance/decline ratio and upside/downside ratio, respectively. Both of these could be compared to tell the market’s true story.