What Are Animal Spirits?

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, to describe how people arrive at financial decisions, including buying and selling securities, in times of economic stress or uncertainty. In Keynes’s 1936 publication, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, he speaks of animal spirits as the human emotions that affect consumer confidence.

Today, animal spirits describe the psychological and emotional factors that drive investors to take action when faced with high levels of volatility in the capital markets. The term comes from the Latin spiritus animalis, which means “the breath that awakens the human mind.” In some ways, Keynes’ insights into human behavior predicted the rise of behavioral economics.

Understanding Animal Spirits

The technical concept of spiritus animalis can be traced as far back as 300 B.C., in the fields of human anatomy and medical physiology. There, animal spirits applied to the fluid or spirit present in sensory activities and nerve endings in the brain that resulting in mass psychological phenomena like manias or hysterias.

Animal spirits also appeared in literary culture, where they referred to states of physical courage, gaiety, and exuberance. The literary meaning implies that animal spirits can be high or low depending on an individual’s degree of health and energy.

Animal Spirits in Finance and Economics

Today in finance, the term animal spirits arise in market psychology and behavioral economics. Animal spirits represent the emotions of confidence, hope, fear, and pessimism that can affect financial decision-making, which in turn can fuel or hamper economic growth. If spirits are low, then confidence levels will be low, which will drive down a promising market—even if the market or economy fundamentals are strong. Likewise, if spirits are high, confidence among participants in the economy will be high, and market prices will soar.

The Role of Emotion in Business Decisions

According to the theory behind animal spirits, the decisions of business leaders are based on intuition and the behavior of their competitors rather than on solid analysis. Keynes understood that in times of economic upheaval, irrational thoughts might influence people as they pursue their financial self-interests.

Keynes further posited in The General Theory that trying to estimate the future yield of various industries, companies, or activities using general knowledge and available insight “amounts to little and sometimes to nothing.” He proposed that the only way people can make decisions in an uncertain environment is if animal spirits guide them.

Animal Spirits Enter the 21st Century

In 2009, the term animal spirits returned to popularity when two economists—George A. Akerlof (Nobel laureate and professor of economics at University of California) and Robert J. Shiller (professor of economics at Yale University)—published their book, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism.

Here, the authors argue that although animal spirits are important, it is equally important that the government actively intervene to control them—via economic policymaking—when necessary. Otherwise, the authors postulate, the spirits might follow their own devices—that is, capitalism could get out of hand, and result in the kind of overindulgence that we saw in the 2008 financial crisis.

Examples of Animal Spirits

The Dotcom Bubble

Animal spirits often manifest as market psychology defined by either fear or greed. For the latter, the term “irrational exuberance” has been used to describe investor enthusiasm that drives asset prices far higher than those assets’ fundamentals justify. Simply tacking on “dotcom” to the name of a company increased its market value to extraordinary levels, with startups showing zero earnings commanding ever-higher share prices.

The crash that followed saw the Nasdaq index, which had risen five-fold between 1995 and 2000, tumble from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct 4, 2002, a 76.81% fall. By the end of 2001, most dot-com stocks had gone bust.

The Great Recession

Another example was the lead-up to the 2008-09 financial crisis and the Great Recession, when the markets were rife with financial innovations. Creative use of both new and existing financial products—like collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)—abounded, particularly in the housing market. Initially, this trend was thought to be positive, that is until the new financial instruments were found to be deceptive and fraudulent. At this point, investor confidence plummeted, a sell-off ensued, and the markets plunged. A clear case of animal spirits run amok.

Critiques of Animal Spirits

“Animal spirits” refers to the tendency for investment prices to rise and fall based on human emotion rather than intrinsic value. This theory, however, has been critiqued by some economists who argue that markets are nonetheless efficient and that individual irrationality washes out in the aggregate. The animal spirits thesis, like behavioral economics, essentially throws a monkey wrench into the assumptions of efficiency and rationality.

Other critics argue that bubbles are not the result of mass psychology, but are due to the over-involvement of central banks and too much regulation, which stymie economic growth and throw markets out of equilibrium. These arguments often stem from Austrian economic theory or libertarianism that asserts that large increases in the money supply (“printed” by governments) are the cause of bubbles and their ultimate demise by encouraging malinvestment.

What is Accretive?

In both finance and in general lexicon, the term “accretive” is the adjective form of the word “accretion”, which refers to gradual or incremental growth. For example, an acquisition deal may be deemed accretive for the absorbing company, if that deal contributes to an increase in earnings per share.

By definition, in corporate finance, accretive acquisitions of assets or businesses must ultimately add more value to a company, than the expenditures associated with the acquisition. This can be due to the fact that the newly-acquired assets in question are purchased at a discount to their perceived current market value, or if the assets are expected to grow, as a direct result of the transaction.

Key Takeaways
–The term “accretive” is an adjective that refers to business deals that result in gradual or incremental growth in value for a company.
–In corporate finance, accretive acquisitions of assets must add more value to a company, than the costs of acquiring the target entity,
–Accretive deals can occur if acquired assets are purchased at a discount to their perceived current market value.
–In general finance, accretive investments refer to any security that is purchased at a discount. 

Breaking Down Accretive

In general finance, accretion refers to the change in the price of a bond or security. In fixed-income investments, the word accretive may be used to describe the increase in value attributable to interest accrued but not paid. For example, discounted bonds earn interest through accretion, until they reach maturity. In such cases, acquired bonds are acquired at a discount when compared to the current face value of the bond, also known as the par. As the bond matures, the value increases, based on the interest rate that was in effect at the time of issuance.

Determining the Rate of Accretion

The rate of accretion is determined by dividing the discount by the number of years in the term. In the case of zero coupon bonds, the interest acquired is not compounded. While the value of the bond increases based on the agreed-upon interest rate, it must be held for the agreed-upon term, before it can be cashed out.

Examples of Accretion

If a person purchases a bond with a value of $1,000, for the discounted price of $750, with the understanding that it will be held for 10 years, the deal is considered accretive, because the bond pays out the initial investment, plus interest. Depending on the type of bond purchased, interest may be paid out at regular intervals (annually, semi-annually, etc.), or it may be paid in lump sum, upon maturity.

With zero coupon bonds, there is no interest accrual. Instead, it is purchased at a discount, such as the initial $750 investment for a bond with a face value of $1,000. The bond pays the original face value, also known as the accreted value, of $1,000, in a lump sum upon maturity.

In corporate finance acquisition deals are often accretive. First, let’s assume that the earnings per share of Corporation X is listed as $100, and earnings per share of Corporation Y is listed as $50. When Corporation X acquires Corporation Y, Corporations X’s earnings per share increase to $150–rendering this a 50% accretive deal.

[Important: The antonym to “accretive” is “dilutive”, which describes any deal which causes a corporation’s earnings per share value to drop.]

What Is an Anomaly?

In economics and finance, an anomaly is when the actual result under a given set of assumptions is different from the expected result predicted by a model. An anomaly provides evidence that a given assumption or model does not hold up in practice. The model can either be a relatively new or older model.

Understanding Anomalies

In finance, two common types of anomalies are market anomalies and pricing anomalies. Market anomalies are distortions in returns that contradict the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Pricing anomalies are when something—for example, a stock—is priced differently than how a model predicts it will be priced.

Common market anomalies include the small-cap effect and the January effect. The small-cap effect refers to the small company effect, where smaller companies tend to outperform larger ones over time. The January effect refers to the tendency of stocks to return much more in the month of January than in others.

Anomalies also often occur with respect to asset pricing models, in particular, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Although the CAPM was derived by using innovative assumptions and theories, it often does a poor job of predicting stock returns. The numerous market anomalies that were observed after the formation of the CAPM helped form the basis for those wishing to disprove the model. Although the model may not hold up in empirical and practical tests, it still does hold some utility.

Anomalies tend to be few and far between. In fact, once anomalies become publicly known, they tend to quickly disappear as arbitragers seek out and eliminate any such opportunity from occurring again.

Types of Market Anomalies

In financial markets, any opportunity to earn excess profits undermines the assumptions of market efficiency, which states that prices already reflect all relevant information and so cannot be arbitraged.

January Effect

The January effect is a rather well-known anomaly. According to the January effect, stocks that underperformed in the fourth quarter of the prior year tend to outperform the markets in January. The reason for the January effect is so logical that it is almost hard to call it an anomaly. Investors will often look to jettison underperforming stocks late in the year so that they can use their losses to offset capital gains taxes (or to take the small deduction that the IRS allows if there is a net capital loss for the year). Many people call this event tax-loss harvesting.

As selling pressure is sometimes independent of the company’s actual fundamentals or valuation, this “tax selling” can push these stocks to levels where they become attractive to buyers in January.

Likewise, investors will often avoid buying underperforming stocks in the fourth quarter and wait until January to avoid getting caught up in the tax-loss selling. As a result, there is excess selling pressure before January and excess buying pressure after Jan. 1, leading to this effect.

September Effect

The September effect refers to historically weak stock market returns for the month of September. There is a statistical case for the September effect depending on the period analyzed, but much of the theory is anecdotal. It is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year.

There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children. As with many other calendar effects, the September effect is considered a historical quirk in the data rather than an effect with any causal relationship. 

Days of the Week Anomalies

Efficient market supporters hate the “Days of the Week” anomaly because it not only appears to be true, but it also makes no sense. Research has shown that stocks tend to move more on Fridays than Mondays and that there is a bias toward positive market performance on Fridays. It is not a huge discrepancy, but it is a persistent one.

The Monday effect is a theory which states that returns on the stock market on Mondays will follow the prevailing trend from the previous Friday. Therefore, if the market was up on Friday, it should continue through the weekend and, come Monday, resume its rise. The Monday effect is also known as the “weekend effect.”

On a fundamental level, there is no particular reason that this should be true. Some psychological factors could be at work. Perhaps an end-of-week optimism permeates the market as traders and investors look forward to the weekend. Alternatively, perhaps the weekend gives investors a chance to catch up on their reading, stew and fret about the market, and develop pessimism going into Monday.

Superstitious Indicators

Aside from calendar anomalies, there are some non-market signals that some people believe will accurately indicate the direction of the market. Here is a short list of superstitious market indicators:

• The Super Bowl Indicator: When a team from the old American Football League wins the game, the market will close lower for the year. When an old National Football League team wins, the market will end the year higher. Silly as it may seem, the Super Bowl indicator was correct almost three-quarters of the time over a 53-year period ending in 2021. However, the indicator has one limitation: It contains no allowance for an expansion-team victory!
• The Hemline Indicator: The market rises and falls with the length of skirts. Sometimes this indicator is referred to as the “bare knees, bull market” theory. To its merit, the hemline indicator was accurate in 1987, when designers switched from miniskirts to floor-length skirts just before the market crashed. A similar change also took place in 1929, but many argue as to which came first, the crash or the hemline shifts.
• The Aspirin Indicator: Stock prices and aspirin production are inversely related. This indicator suggests that when the market is rising, fewer people need aspirin to heal market-induced headaches. Lower aspirin sales should indicate a rising market.