Posts Tagged ‘Finance’

Daily Analysis 20241206

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

December 06th, 2024

Dow leads losses as stock rally hits pause, bitcoin pulls back from record above $100,000

US stocks drifted lower on Thursday as investors waited for Friday’s crucial jobs report and bitcoin slid after reaching a new high of over $103,000

Dow……44766 -248.3 -0 55%
Nasdaq. 19700 -34.9. -0.18%
S&P 500 6075 -11.4 -0.30%

FTSE…..8349 +13.5 +0.16%
Dax……20359 +126.7 +0.63%
CAC……7331 +27.3 +0.37%

Nikkei….39396 +119.2 +0.30%
HSI……..19560 -182.02 -0.92%
Shanghai.3369 +4.2 +0.13%

IDX…7313.31 -13.45 -0.16%
LQ45…874.45 -13.45 -0.18%
IDX30.446.58 -5.44 -1.20%

IDXEnergy…2661.27 +13.05 +0.49%
IDX BscMat 1349.55 +2.93 +0.22%
IDX Indstrl..1076.88 +2.19 +0.20%
IDXNONCYC.736.98 -0.59 -0.08%
IDX Hlthcare1471.14 +6.26. +0.36%
IDXCYCLC…834.66 +2.73 +0.33%
IDX Techno..4198.11 -9.51 -0.23%
IDX Transp 1385.64 +2.67 +0.19%
IDX Infrast 1465.90 +4.73 . +0.46%
IDX Finance1458.57 -13.54 -0.92%
IDX Banking1206.51 -20.13 -1.64%
IDX Property..777 +5.20 +0.68%

Indo10Yr.6.9714 +0.0077 +0.11%
ICBI….392.8888 +0.0900 +0.02%
US2Yr.4.146 +0.014 +0.34%
US5Yr 4.078 +0.007 +0.17%
US10Yr4.178 -0.011 -0.26%
US30Yr.4.336 -0.014 -0.32%
VIX..13.54 +0.09 +0.67%

USDIndx 105.7260👍 -0.616 -0.58%
Como Indx….286.43 +1.08 +0.38%
BCOMIN….146.58 -0.29 -0.20%

IndoCDS..73.22 -0.49 -0.66%
(5-yr INOCD5) (04/12)

IDR…….15862.00❗️-75.50 -0.47%
Jisdor..15892.00❗️-65.00 -0.41%

Euro…1.0588❗️ +0.0078 +0.74%

TLKM.17.16 -0.34 -1.91%
( 2727)
EIDO…20.39 +0.03 +0.15%
EEM…43.92 +0.29 +0.66%

Oil………68.30 -0.39 -0.57%
(WTI,Nymex)
Oil………72.17 -0.14 -0.19%
(Brent)
Gold…2648.40 -24.90 -0.93%
(Comex)
Gold…2631.91 -18.64 -0.70%
(Spot/XAUUSD)
Timah.29034.00 +210.00 +0.73%
(Closed 04/12)
Nickel.15962.00 -1118.50 -0.74%
(Closed 05/12)
Silver…..31.54 -0.30 -0.94%
Copper.419.25 -0.35 -0.08%

Iron Ore 62% 106.29 +0.21 +0.20%
(03/12)
Nturl Gas 3.084 +0.021 +0.36%
Ammonia China 2820.00 – -%
(Domestic Price)(05/12)

Coal price.133.25 -0.15 -0.11%
(Dec/Newcastle)
Coal price.132.75 -1.40 -1.04%
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price.133.75 -1.00 -0.74%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price 134.50 -1.00 -0.74%
(Mar/Newcastle)

Coal price.114.50 -0.70 -0.61%
(Dec/Rotterdam)
Coal price.112.90 -1.80 -1.57%
(Jan/Rotterdam)
Coal Price 113.10 -1.75 -1.52%
(Feb/Rotterdam),
Coal/Price 113.35 -1.65 -1.43%
(Mar/Rotterdam)

CPO(Feb) 5138 +101 +2.01%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………435.00 +5.00 +1.16%
SoybeanOil 42.31 +0.89 +2.15%
Wheat……558.25 +10.00 +1.82%

Wood pulp.4502.00 unch +0%
(Closed 04/12)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Be loomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah, europe ijo, asia varied, IHSG turun tipis, US treasury bond up, masih merah dulu kayanya IHSG hari ini

USD index ddown tapi metal2 juga kebanyakan down kecuali tin dan iron ore, oil slightly down, gas up, coal down CPO up

IHSG – stoch up macd up MFI up w% uptrend, BD masih acc, kemaren FNS, ketemu resistance, wjar ngeden dulu, masih optimis jalan tapi dengan US market sekarang kayanya belum langsung lanjut

Property lagi… Basic Materials mulai ngintip2

Stochastic Buy Signal: ADRO AMMN ANTM HRUM MDKA ADMR BMTR PWON SMSM WIFI, big accum ANTM ADMR BMTR PWON WIFI

MACD Buy Signal: AKRA ANTM INCOPO PTBA ADMR BMTR MARK PNLF PWON SMRA, big accum AKRA ANTM ADMR BMTR PWON SMRA

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Daily Analysis 20240313

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

March 13th, 2024

Good morning,

Dow jumps more than 200 points, S&P 500 pops 1% for new closing high as Nvidia resurges

Stocks jumped Tuesday after fresh U.S. inflation data was about in line with expectations, clearing the way for investors to resume buying high-flying tech names such as Nvidia and Meta Platforms.

Dow……39005 +235.8 +0.61%
Nasdaq16266 +246.4 +1.54%
S&P 500.5175 +57.3 +1.12%

FTSE…..7748 +78.6 +1.02%
Dax……17965 +218.8 +1.23%
CAC……8087 +67.8 +0.84%

Nikkei..38798 -22.98. O -0.23%
HSI……17093 +505.9 +3.05%
Shanghai.3055 -12.5 -0.41%

IDX…..7394.31 closed +0%
LQ45..1000.35 closed +0%
IDX30…508.41 closed +0%

IDXEnergy..2138.32 closed +0%
IDX BscMat.1271.69 closed +0%
IDX Indstrl…1105.02 closed +0%
IDXNONCYC.707.85 closed +0%
IDX Hlthcare1309.02closed +0%
IDXCYCLIC…828.54 closed +0%
IDX Techno3643.01 closed +0%
IDX Transp 1581.60 closed +0%
IDX Infrast 1587.87 closed +0%
IDX Finance.1534.80closed +0%
IDX Banking.1407.51closed +0%
IDX Property.. 676 cloeed +0%

Indo10Yr.6.6859 closed+0.08%
ICBI…378.3791 closed +0%
US2Yr.4.503 +0.015 +0.32%
US5Yr 4.148 +0.007 +0.17%
US10Yr4.153 -0.003 -0.07%
US30Yr.4.312+0.000 +0.01%
VIX………13.84 -1.38 -9.07%👍

USDIndx 102.9570 +0.090 +0.09%
Como Indx..278.32 +0.33 +0.12%
BCOMIN…..141.79 +0.37 +0.26%

IndoCDS..70.24 -0.01 -0.01%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/03)

IDR…..15590.00 closed +0%
Jisdor.15603.00 closed +0%

Euro….1.0929 +0.00 +0.02%

TLKM…24.97 -0.09 -0.34(%
(3885-.)
EIDO……22.91 -0.03 -0.11%
EEM……41.36 +0.46 +1.11%

Oil…….77.96 +0.40 +0.52%
Gold..2162.00‼️ -4.10 -0.19%
Timah..27634.00❗️👍 +4.00 +0.01%
(Closed 11/03)
Nickel..18534.50❗️👍 +157.50 +0.86%
(Closed 12/03)
Silver……24.32 -0.07 -0.30%
Copper.393.75 +0.55 +0.14%

Iron Ore 62% 113.00 -4.05 -3.46%‼️
(11/03)&’
Nturl Gas..1.707 -0.001 -0.12%
Ammonia China.3260.00‼️ +16.67 +0.75%
(Domestic Price)(12/03/24)

Coal price.130.65 -2.35 -1.77%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price 130.40 -2.95 -2.21%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.131.25 -3.10 -2.31%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.131.90 -2.95 -2.19%
(Jun/Newcastle)

Coal price..109.40 +0.75 +0.69%
(Mar/Rotterdam)
Coal price..106.05 +0.60 +0.57%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price..104.50 -0.25 -0.24%
(May/Rotterdam)
Coal price..102.50 +0.10 +0.10%
(Jun/Rotterdam)

CPO(May)..4122+2.00 +0.05%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn….441.75 +0.00 +0.00%
SoybeanOil 47.82 +1.18 +2.53%
Wheat….547.50 +0.25 +0.05%

Wood pulp..5450.00❗️ unch +0%
(Closed 12/03)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US Europe ijo semua, asia kemaren jepang china merah, hongkong ijo tebel… US bond rate yang 2 tahun naik agak tinggi, yang lain rata2 naik juga, bisa jadi bikin koreksi globally hari ini, IHSG isa jadi ngejar kemaren ga ikut ijo, atau bisa jadi kebagian koreksinya doang. Tapi kalo liat chart, kemaren ijo tebel 2 hari, giliran turun sih

USD index naik dkit, gold silver iron ore merah, Tin Nickel Copper ijo, oil ijo, gas coal Newcastle merah, rotterdam Ijo, kayanya sih merah dulu hari ini saham Coal. CPO lanjut, kita pantau LSIP buat re-entry

IHSG – bikin new record high, 2 kali kejadian bikin record high terus dibanting abis abisan, hati-hati. Udah kena reg beaar div MACD sama RSI, jadi harus extra caution. oscillators pada buy, MFI sw, BD flat FF acc, trailing stop guys…

Tinggal Financials sama Basic Materials, yang lain udah lemes. Sekalinya big bank dibanting index ikut

Stochastic Buy Signal: BBRI CPIN HRTA LPPF MIKA SMRA INDS AALI. Lho AALI tertendang keluar Kompas 100 ternyata. Big accum CPIN BBRI

MACD Buy Signal: MDKA MNCN MTMH WIFI, big acc WIFI

Stochastic Continuation Signal and Big Accum: SIDO TKIM

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Daily Analysis 20230313

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

March 13th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 300 points lower, posts worst week since June as Silicon Valley Bank collapse sparks selloff

Stocks tumbled Friday as tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank shut down following losses in its bond portfolio, prompting the biggest bank failure since the global financial crisis and sending shockwaves through the banking sector.

Dow……31910 -345.2 -1.07%
Nasdaq11139 -199.5 -1.76%
S&P 500.3862 -56.8 -1.45%

FTSE…….7748 -131.6 -1.67%
Dax……..15428 -205.2 -1.31%
CAC……..7221 -95.2 -1.30%

Nikkei…..28144 -479.2 -1.67%
HSI……..19320 -605.8 -3.04%‼️
Shanghai.3230 -46.02 -1.40%

IDX…..6765.30 -34.49 -0.51%
LQ45….937.14 -5.75 -0.61%
IDX30…487.68 -3.61 -0.73%

IDXEnergy…2050.29 -10.55 -0.51%
IDX BscMat 1177.07 -1.75 -0.15%
IDX Indstrl..1170.18 -6.01 -0.51%
IDXNONCYC..727.65 -1.25 -0.17%
IDX Hlthcare1544.07 -3.04 -0.20%
IDXCYCLIC…829.95 -4.46 -0.53%
IDX Techno.5358.07 -72.43 -1.33%
IDX Transp.1814.30 -26.98 -1.47%
IDX Infrast….831.78 -4.62 -0.55%
IDX Finance1393.63 -9.78 -0.70%
IDX Banking1132.84 -9.79 -0.86%
IDX Property….681 -2.50 -0.37%

Indo10Yr.6.9713 -0.0182 -0.26%
ICBI….349.0598 +0.4047 +0.12%
US2Yr4.5925 -0.0045 -0.10%
US5Yr 3.9700.-0.0170 -0.43%
US10Yr3.7040 -0.0090-0.26%
US30Yr.3.7120 -0.012 -0.32%
VIX…… 24.80 +2.19 +9.69%‼️

USDIndx104.5760 -0.6790 -0.65%‼️
Como Indx.264.99 +0.34 +0.13%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…156.28 -1.38 -0.88%

IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR…..15450.00‼️ +17.50 +0.11%
Jisdor.15468.00‼️ +30.00 +0.19%

Euro……1.0643 +0.00630 +0.60%

TLKM….25.99 +0.32 +1.25%
(4020)
EIDO……22.11 -0.09 -0.41%
EEM……37.84 -0.20 -0.53%

Oil….76.68 +0.96 +1.27%
Gold1867.20‼️ +32.60 +1.88%
Timah .22912.00 – 439 -1.65%
(Closed 03/10)
Nickel..22688.00 -577.0 -2.48%
(Closed 03/10)
Silver…..20.51 +0.34 +1.69%
Copper.400.05 -0.85 -0.21%

Nturl Gas.2.436 -0.0560 -2.25%

Ammonia 4406.67 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(03/08)

Coal price.185.24 +5.25 +2.92%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price.193.00 +9.00 +4.89%‼️
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.197.34 +9.25 +4.92%‼️
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.201.50 +5.00 +2.55%
(Jun/Newcastle)

Coal price.135.00 +8.25 +6.51%‼️
(Mar/Rotterdam)
Coal price 132.00 +8.75 +7.10%‼️
(Apr/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.50 +7.75 +6.26%‼️
(May/Rotterdam)
Coal price 131.50 +7.05 +5.66%‼️
(Jun/Rotterdam)

CPO(May)…4098 -106 -2.52%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..617.25 +5.75 +0.94%
SoybeanOil.56.61 -0.45 -0.79%
Wheat…..679.25 +13.50 +2.03%

Wood pulp…5690.00 unch +0.18%
(Closed 03/12)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Index regional closing merah semua, HangSeng paling dalem drop nya. Masih rada suram, tapi ga lama lagi harusnya, bank sudah mulai gerak

OIl up, gas down, coal jump, gold silver ijo, metal2 lain merah, cpo drop lagi. Siap siap ANTM MDKA

IHSG – stochastic and macd still down, 833 buy, BD flalt, NFB udah 2 hari, MFIup, w% sw, udah koreksi ke sekitar fibo 50-61, udah cukup buat mantul, walau jeleknya triangle breakdown…

Financials udah gerak, Property, Technology. Yang kemaren leading Industrials sama Energy melemah

Stoch Buy Signal: BBTN SCMA TPIA

MACD buy signal: BBRI TPIA

Alligator Buy Signal: MTEL

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Anchoring and Adjustment Definition in Business & Finance

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Is Anchoring and Adjustment?

Anchoring and adjustment is a phenomenon wherein an individual bases their initial ideas and responses on one point of information and makes changes driven by that starting point. The anchoring and adjustment heuristic describes cases in which a person uses a specific target number or value as a starting point, known as an anchor, and subsequently adjusts that information until an acceptable value is reached over time. Often, those adjustments are inadequate and remain too close to the original anchor, which is a problem when the anchor is very different from the true answer.

Key Takeaways

  • Anchoring and adjustment is a cognitive heuristic where a person starts off with an initial idea and adjusts their beliefs based on this starting point.
  • Anchoring and adjustment have been shown to produce erroneous results when the initial anchor deviates from the true value. 
  • Awareness of anchoring, monetary incentives, giving careful consideration to a range of possible ideas, expertise, experience, personality, and mood can all modify the effects of anchoring.  
  • Anchoring can be used to advantage in sales and price negotiations where setting an initial anchor can influence subsequent negotiations in your favor.

Understanding Anchoring and Adjustment

Anchoring is a cognitive bias described by behavioral finance in which individuals fixate on a target number or value—usually, the first one they get, such as an expected price or economic forecast. Unlike the conservatism bias, which has similar effects but is based on how investors relate new information to old information, anchoring occurs when an individual makes new decisions based on the old, anchor number. Giving new information thorough consideration to determine its impact on the original forecast or opinion might help mitigate the effects of anchoring and adjustment, but the characteristics of the decision-maker are as important as conscious consideration.

The problem with anchoring and adjustment is that if the value of the initial anchor is not the true value, then all subsequent adjustments will be systematically biased toward the anchor and away from the true value. However, if the anchor is close to the true value then there is essentially no problem.

One of the issues with adjustments is that they may be influenced by irrelevant information that the individual may be thinking about and drawing unfounded connections to the actual target value. For instance, suppose an individual is shown a random number, then asked an unrelated question that seeks an answer in the form of an estimated value or requires a mathematical equation to be performed quickly. Even though the random number they were shown has nothing to do with the answer sought, it might be taken as a visual cue and become an anchor for their responses. Anchor values can be self-generated, be the output of a pricing model or forecasting tool, or be suggested by an outside individual.

Studies have shown that some factors can influence anchoring, but it is difficult to avoid, even when people are made aware of it and deliberately try to avoid it. In experimental studies, telling people about anchoring, cautioning them that it can bias their judgment, and even offering them monetary incentives to avoid anchoring can reduce, but not eliminate, the effect of anchoring.

Higher levels of experience and skill in a specific field can help reduce the impact of anchoring in that subject area, and higher general cognitive ability may reduce anchoring effects in general. Personality and emotion can also play a role. A depressed mood increases anchoring, as do the personality traits of agreeableness, conscientiousness, introversion, and openness.

Anchoring and Adjustment in Business and Finance

In sales, price, and wage negotiations, anchoring and adjustment can be a powerful tool. Studies have shown that setting an anchor at the outset of a negotiation can have more effect on the final outcome than the intervening negotiation process. Setting a deliberate starting point can affect the range of all subsequent counteroffers.

For example, a used car salesman (or any salesman) can offer a very high price to start negotiations that are arguably well above the fair value. Because the high price is an anchor, the final price will tend to be higher than if the car salesman had offered a fair or low price to start. A similar technique may be applied in hiring negotiations when a hiring manager or prospective hire proposes an initial salary. Either party may then push the discussion to that starting point, hoping to reach an agreeable amount that was derived from the anchor.

In finance, the output of a pricing model or from an economic forecasting tool may become the anchor for an analyst. One possible way to counteract this is to look at multiple, diverse models or strands of evidence. Social psychology researcher Phillip Tetlock has found that forecasters who make predictions based on many different ideas or perspectives (“foxes”) tend to make better forecasts than those who focus on only a single model or a few big ideas (“hedgehogs”). Considering several different models and a range of different forecasts may make an analyst’s work less vulnerable to anchoring effects.

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