Posts Tagged ‘ends’

Daily Analysis 20230811

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

August 11th, 2023

 

Good morning,

 

Dow ends Thursday slightly higher, lifted by weaker-than-expected inflation data, Disney pops nearly 5%

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

edged higher Thursday, helped by a post-earnings Disney

rally and a key inflation reading showing slightly less year-over-year inflation growth than expected.

 

Dow……35176  +52.8      +0.18%

Nasdaq13738  +15.98    +0.12%

S&P 500.4469  +1.1         +0.03%

 

FTSE…..7619   +31.3       +0.41%

Dax……15997  +143.9     +0.91%

CAC……7434   +111.6     +1.52%

 

Nikkei…32474   +269.3  +0.84%

HSI…….19248   +2.2       +0.01%

Shanghai.3254 +10.1     +0.31%

 

IDX…..6893.23   +18.16    +0.12%

LQ45….966.48   +1.18       +0.12%

IDX30…501.45   +0.28       +0.06%

 

IDXEnergy…1940.94  +28.82 +1.51%

IDX BscMat.1098.97 +0.35   +0.03%

IDX Indstrl…1204.59  -7.90    -0.65%

IDXNONCYC.750.22 +0.17    +0.02%

IDX Hlthcare1490.49+1.59    +0.11%

IDXCYCLIC….913.88  -0.89    -0.10%

IDX Techno.4484.67 +30.83 +0.69%

IDX Transp..1873.52 +15.12 +0.81%

IDX Infrast… .858.21 +3.24   +0.38%

IDX Finance.1428.13 -2.54    -0.18%

IDX Banking.1228.06+1.50   +0.12%

IDX Property..755       -2.00   -2.70%

 

*Indo10Yr.6.3964* -0.0013  -0.02%

*ICBI….369.5720* +0.2564 +0.07%

*US2Yr.4.8500*  -0.040    -0.83%

*US5Yr 4.2340   +0.095   +2.30%*

*US10Yr4.1150  +0.1050 +2.62%*

*US30Yr.4.2680 +0.103   +2.47%*

*VIX…….15.85   -0.11      -0.69%*

 

*USDIndx 102.6230* +0.1330 +0.13%

Como Indx…279.96  -2.08   -0.74%

(Core Commodity CRB)

BCOMIN….142.56    -0.35    -0.24%

 

 

*IndoCDS.80.21  -0.02  -0.02%*

(5-yr INOCD5) *(09/08)*

 

*IDR…..15185.00‼️-4.50    -0.03%*

*Jisdor.15204.00 ‼️-2.00   -0.01%*

 

*Euro……1.0982  +0.0005  +0.05%*

 

TLKM…24.57  -0.01   -0.04%

*(3736)*

EIDO….23.10   +0.03  +0.13%

EEM…..40.15   +0.06  +0.15%

 

*Oil…..82.90‼️  -1.33   -1.58%*

*Gold…1944.90‼️* -4.00  -0.21%

Timah..27259.00  -41.00   -0.15%

*(Closed 09/08)*

Nickel..20430.50  -88.00   -0.43%

(Closed 10/08)

Silver…… 22.76  +0.02   +0.09%

Copper.375.65   -2.95     -0.78%

 

*Iron Ore 62%  104.70 +0.29 +0.28%*

(09/08)

Nturl Gas.2.7850  -0.0070  -0.25%

*Ammonia  China..3366.67 unch  +0%*

(Domestic Price)(10/08)

 

Coal price..143.00 +0.50 +0.35%

(Agt/Newcastle)

Coal price.149.00 +0.75  +0.51%

(Sept/Newcastle)

Coal price.152.25 +1.35  +0.89%

(Oct/Newcastle)

Coal price.155.50 +1.25  +0.81%

(Nov/Newcastle)

 

Coal price117.50  +1.65  +1.42%

(Agt/Rotterdam)

Coal price.120.25  -0.35   -0.29%

(Sept/ Rotterdam)

Coal price.120.55  -0.10   -0.08%

(Oct/Rotterdam)

Coal price.122.10  -0.30   -0.25%

(Nov/Rotterdam)

 

CPO(Oct)..3727  -38   -1.00%

(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

 

Corn………496.25  +2.00   +0.40%

SoybeanOil 60.48 +0.05   +0.08%

Wheat……663.75  +2.00   +0.40%

 

*Wood pulp..4620.00‼️* +20  +0.43%

(Closed 09/08)

 

©️Phintraco Sekuritas

Broker Code: *_AT_*

_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia

_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

US ijo europe ijo, asia ijo, ayo ijo lagi IHSG hari ini…

USD index naik, kebanyakan commodities turun kecuali silver, iron ore sama coal. Bagus buat PTBA dkk, tapi tambang mineral mineral logam jadi kurang OK

IHSG – stoch rev up almost buy, MACD down rev, BD flat, FNB 5 days straight, triangle keliatan mau breakout ke atas, semoga lanjut

Basic Materials dan Industrials rada slow down, Infrastructure Property Financials sama Consumer Non-Cyclicals jalan

Stochastic Buy Signal: INDY ITMG SRTG TOWR UNTR ABMM HMSP SMAR. Big accum: INDY ITMG SRTG TOWR. Kayanya emang coal mau hajatan ini…

MACD Buy Signal: SIDO ADMR JPFA CEKA

Alligator Buy Signal: BUKA

Supertrend Buy Signal: BBNI

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Daily Analysis 20230509

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

May 09th, 2023

Good morning,

S&P 500 ends Monday little changed as investors look ahead to key inflation reports

The S&P 500
closed near the flat line on Monday as investors looked ahead to pivotal inflation readings, including April’s consumer price index report.

Dow……33619 -55.7 -0.17%
Nasdaq12257 +21.5. +0.18%
S&P 500.4138 +1.9 +0.05%

FTSE…..7778 closed +0%
Dax……15953 -8.2 -0.05%
CAC……7441 +7.88 +0.11%

Nikkei…..28959 -199.5 -0.68%
HSI………20297 +247.7 +1.24%
Shanghai.3395 +60.5 +1.81%

IDX…..6769.63 -18.00 -0.27%
LQ45….938.05 -7.00 -0.74%
IDX30…488.17 -4.19 -0.85%

IDXEnergy…1975.57 +21.21 +1.09%
IDX BscMat 1120.00 +5.15 +0.46%
IDX Indstrl…1156.37 +11.07 +0.97%
IDXNONCYC.736.71 +2.68 +0.37%
IDX Hlthcare1476.23 -9.40 -0.63%
IDXCYCLIC….821.69 +5.27 +0.65%
IDX Techno..4866.67 -7.07 -0.15%
IDX Transp..1830.38 +20.74 +1.15%
IDX Infrast…..817.59 -0.15 -0.02%
IDX Finance.1379.11 +0.92 +0.07%
IDX Banking.1141.65 -8.54 -0.74%
*IDX Property…722 +18.90 +2.69%*

Indo10Yr.6.6543 +0.0005 +0.007%
ICBI….358.4588 -0.0580 -0.02%
*US2Yr.4.0012 +0.0831 +2.12%*
*US5Yr 3.4878 +0.0774 +2.27%*
*US10Yr3.5070 +0.0720 +2.10%*
*US30Yr.3.8230* +0.0730 +1.95%
*VIX……16.98👍 -0.21 -1.22%*

*USDIndx101.3770 +0.1630 +0.16%*
Como Indx.264.00 +2.40 +0.92%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…154.19 +0.63 +0.41%

*IndoCDS.100.00 -0.49 -0.49%*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(08/05)*

*IDR…..14710.50 +32.50 +0.22%*
*Jisdor.14709.00 +35.00 +0.24%*

*Euro……1.1003 -0.0016 -0.15%*

*TLKM..27.83 -0.77 -2.69%*
*(4094)*
EIDO….24.02 -0.27 -1.11%
EEM…..39.41 +0.02 +0.05%

*Oil……72.99 +1.65 +2.31%*
Gold…2028.40 +3.60 +0.18%
Timah..26064.00 closed +0%
*(Closed 05/05)*
Nickel..24712.50 closed +0%
(Closed 05/05)
Silver……25.79 -0.14 -0.54%
Copper…392.00 +3.70 +0.95%
*Iron Ore 62% 103.55 -0.32 -0.31%*
(05/05)
*Nturl Gas.2.245 +0.130 +6.15%‼️*

Coal price.169.65 closed +0%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.168.50 closed +0%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.174.60 closed +0%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.182.60 closed +0%
(Agt/Newcastle)

Coal price.127.15 unch +0%
(May/Rotterdam)
Coal price.122.50 +0.45 +0.37%
(Jun/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 123.10 +1.90 +1.57%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price 123.60 +2.05 +1.69%
(Agt/Rotterdam)

*CPO(Jul)…3758 +167.00 +4.48%‼️*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..596.50 unch +0%
SoybeanOil53.65 -0.68 -1.25%
Wheat…..654.00 -6.25 -0.95%

*Wood pulp..4010.00 +10 +0.25%*
(Closed 08/05)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_
*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

US ijo tebel, Europe masih tipis2, asia kemaren ijo, IHSG ijo tebel, lanjut ah…

 

IHSG – stoch buy, macdup, MFI flat, w% uptrend, BD FF acc, alligator buy, double bottom formed, semoga breakout

 

Industrials, Infrastructure, disusul Basic Materials dan Consumer Non-Cyclicals

 

Stochastic Buy Signal: ACES BUKA ESSA PTBA SRTG UNVR AVIA LSIP MLPL

 

MACD Buy Signal: AMRT KLBF UNVR GGRM

 

Alligator Buy Signal: AGRO TAPG

 

Supertrend Buy Signal: UNVR ADHI

Oil Gas Ijo, Coal Merah, Gold merah, metal2 lain ijo, nikel ijo tebel lagi, GO GO INCO, CPO drop lagi

 

ACES – tunggu macd assess lagi, BD FF masih dist

 

BUKA – big accumulation, FNB, stoch buy macd up, MFI upw% up, udah bikin higher low, bisa spec buy sih…

 

Spike nya meyakinkan

 

UNVR – stoch buy macd buy, MFI up, w% uptrend, double bottom, adagap di atas, tapi PBV 31, PER 35, saya mah skip… Yang pegang hold

 

Spike lumayan

 

KLBF – stoch up, macd buy, MFI up, w% down, BD FF acc, abis wave 5 Belum beres abc correction, baru koreksi ke sekitar fibo 23, Belum beres sih keliatannya WNS

 

 

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Debunking 8 Myths About Technical Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Some traders and investors denounce technical analysis (TA) as a superficial study of charts and patterns without any concrete, conclusive or profitable results. Others believe it is a sort of Holy Grail that once mastered will unleash sizable profits. These opposing viewpoints have led to misconceptions about technical analysis and how it is used.  

Technical analysis tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities. Contrary to fundamental analysis, technical analysts do not necessarily care much about the companies behind the stocks they trade or their profitability.

Some misconceptions about technical analysis are based on education and training. For example, a trader trained in using only fundamentals may not trust technical analysis at all. But that doesn’t mean someone who is trained in technical analysis can’t use it profitably.

Other TA assumptions are based on bad experiences. For example, the incorrect use of technical indicators often leads to losses. That doesn’t mean the method is necessarily wrong; possibly the person just needs more practice and training. The negative sentiment can be perpetuated by unscrupulous marketing, promising overnight riches if a simple TA indicator is bought and used. It rarely is that easy.

Here are eight common technical analysis myths—and why they simply aren’t true. 

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analysis (TA) tries to capture market psychology and sentiment by analyzing price trends and chart patterns for possible trading opportunities.
  • Many opponents of TA subscribe to myths about the strategy.
  • Common myths about TA include it being only for day trading and only used by individual traders.
  • Other myths include the idea that TA is quick and easy, with all decisions made by software.
  • Some erroneously expect TA to make precise price predictions and be equally appropriate across all financial markets.

1. Technical Analysis Is Only for Short-Term Trading or Day Trading

It is a common myth that technical analysis is only appropriate for short-term and computer-driven trading like day trading and high-frequency trades. Technical analysis existed and was practiced before computers were common, and some of the pioneers in technical analysis were long-term investors and traders, not day traders. Technical analysis is used by traders on all time frames, from one-minute charts to weekly and monthly charts.

2. Only Individual Traders Use Technical Analysis 

While individuals do use technical analysis, hedge funds and investment banks make ample use of technical analysis as well. Investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis. High-frequency trading, which encompasses a significant amount of the trading volume on the stock exchanges, is heavily dependent on technical concepts. 

3. Technical Analysis Has a Low Success Rate

A look at the list of successful market traders, who have decades of trading experience, debunks this myth. Successful trader interviews have cited significant numbers of traders who owe their success to technical analysis and patterns. For example, Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders (Wiley, 2012) by Jack D. Schwager features interviews with many professionals who’ve profited solely by using technical analysis.

4. Technical Analysis Is Quick and Easy 

The internet is full of technical analysis courses that promise trading success. Though many individuals enter the trading world by placing their first trade based on simple technical indicators, continued success in trading requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline. It requires dedicated time, knowledge, and attention. Technical analysis is only a tool, only one piece of the puzzle.

5. Ready-Made Technical Analysis Software Can Help Traders Make Easy Money 

Unfortunately, this is not true. There are many online ads for cheap and costly software that claims to do all your analysis for you. In addition, less-experienced traders sometimes confuse technical analysis tools in broker-provided trading software for trading models that will guarantee profit. Though technical analysis software provides insights about trends and patterns, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee profits. It’s up to the trader to correctly interpret trends and data.

6. Technical Indicators Can Be Applied Across All Markets

While technical analysis can be applied to many markets, specific asset classes have specific requirements. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and bonds all have differences. There may be time-dependent patterns like high volatility in futures and options nearing expiry, or seasonal patterns in commodities. Don’t make the mistake of applying technical indicators intended for one asset class to another.

7. Technical Analysis Can Provide Precise Price Predictions 

Many novices expect recommendations from technical analysts or software patterns to be 100% precise. For example, inexperienced traders may expect a prediction as specific as, “stock ABC will reach $62 in two months.” However, experienced technical analysts usually avoid quoting prices so specifically. Rather they tend to quote a range such as, “stock A could move in the range of $59 to $64 in the next two to three months.”

Traders betting their money on technical recommendations should be aware that technical analysis provides a predictive range, not an exact number. Technical analysis is also about probability and likelihoods, not guarantees. If something works more often than not, even though it doesn’t work all the time, it can still be very effective at generating profits.

8. The Winning Rate in Technical Analysis Should Be Higher

It’s a common myth that a high percentage of winning trades is needed for profitability. However, that is not always the case. Assume Peter makes four winning trades out of five, while Molly makes one winning trade out of five. Who is more successful? Most people would say Peter, but we don’t actually know until we get more information. Profitability is a combination of win rate and risk/reward. If Peter makes $20 on his winners but is down $80 from his one loss, he ends up with $0. If Molly makes $50 on her win and losses $10 on her losses, she walks away with $10. She is better off, even with fewer wins. Proper trade structuring allows for profitability even with few winners

The Bottom Line

Technical analysis provides a large basket of tools and concepts for trading. There are successful traders who don’t use it, and there are successful traders who do. Some believe technical analysis is the best way to trade, while others claim it is misguided and lacks a theoretical basis.

Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn’t guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.

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