Posts Tagged ‘dollar’

Daily Analysis 20230413

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

April 13th, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks ended Wednesday’s regular trading session on a down note. The S&P 500
closed 0.41% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite
dropped 0.85%. The Dow snapped a four-day winning streak, ending the day down 38.29 points, or 0.11%.

At the first, the major averages were earlier in the session following the release of March’s consumer price index report, which showed headline pressures slowed last month. The CPI advanced 0.1% month over month in March, and 5% from the prior year.

Traders’ sentiment turned in the afternoon after the release of minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In particular, the Fed expects the recent banking crisis to cause a recession later this year.

Dow……33647 -38.3 -0.11%
Nasdaq11929 -102.5 -0.85%
S&P 500.4092 -16.99 -0.41%

FTSE…..7825 +39.1 +0.50%
Dax……15704 +48.4 +0.31%
CAC……7397 +6.7 +0.09%

Nikkei…..28083 +159.3 +0.57%
HSI………20310 -175.4 -0.86%
Shanghai.3327 +13.6 +0.41%

IDX…..6798.96 -12.35 -0.18%
LQ45….943.18 +1.40 +0.15%
IDX30…491.46 +0.62 +0.13%

IDXEnergy…2052.28 -33.74 -1.62%
IDX BscMat 1158.66 -3.28 -0.28%
IDX Indstrl…1204.13 +11.57 +0.97%
IDXNONCYC.712.94 -3.69 -0.51%
IDX Hlthcare1505.43 -8.02 -0.53%
IDXCYCLIC…..810.57 -1.42 -0.18%
IDX Techno..4817.76 -71.02 -1.45%
IDX Transp..1779.01 +6.01 +0.34%
IDX Infrast…..803.45 +0.94 +0.12%
IDX Finance.1391.44 +2.65 +0.19%
IDX Banking.1145.74 +4.32 +0.38%
IDX Property…694 -2.0 -0.28%

Indo10Yr.6.7472+0.0047+0.07%
ICBI….354.8340+0.0088+0.00%
US2Yr.3.9682 -0.0647 -1.60%
US5Yr 3.4659 -0.0690 -1.95%
US10Yr3.4000 -0.0320 -0.93%
US30Yr.3.6350+0.010 +0.28%
VIX…… 19.09 -0.01 -0.05%

USDIndx101.5000 -0.6530 -0.64%👍
Como Indx.275.73 +1.00 +0.37%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…156.52 +1.82 +1.17%

IndoCDS..92.110 +0.4900 +0.53%
(5-yr INOCD5) (11/04)

IDR…..14880.00👍 -5.50 -0.04%
Jisdor.14866.00👍 -22.00 -0.15%

Euro……1.0994 +0.0080 +0.73%

TLKM….28.90 +0.05 +0.17%
(4297)
EIDO……23.90 +0.05 +0.17%
EEM……39.39 -0.28 -0.71%

Oil……83.26 +1.73 +2.12%
Gold.2024.90 +5.70 +0.28%
Timah..24308.00 – -%
(Closed 06/04)
Nickel..23565.00 +491.00 +2.13%
(Closed 11/04)
Silver……25.46 +0.27 +1.08%
Copper…408.10 +6.15 +1.53%

Nturl Gas.2.084 -0.1760 -7.91%‼️

Ammonia 3633.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(10/04)

Coal price.194.60 -0.55 -0.28%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.202.40 -2.60 -1.26%
(May/Newcastle)
Coal price.205.90 +1.40 +0.68%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.206.05 -2.10 -1.00%
(Jul/Newcastle)

Coal price.133.80 +4.35 +3.36%‼️
(Apr/Rotterdam)
Coal price.126.95 +0.95 +0.75%
(May/ Rotterdam)
Coal price 125.35 +0.35 +0.28%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price 125.75 -0.10 -0.08%
(Jul/Rotterdam)

CPO(Jun)…3775 -120 -3.08%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……..627.75 +0.00 +0.00%
SoybeanOil54.16 -0.85 -1.55%
Wheat…..679.60 +5.50 +0.82%

Wood pulp..4740.00 -50.00 -1.05%
(Closed 11/04)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US merah, europe ijo, asia varied, US dollar index turun, yang consequently means semua commodity yang diikat nilai nya ke dollar cenderung naik. Index mungkin akan sideways tapi saham terkait komoditi harusnya tetep jalan

Oil up, gas drop, coal newcastle down, coal rotterdam jump, cpo drop. Ini sih keliatannya giliran ANTM MDKA INCO TINS untuk jalan lagi

IHSG – stoch masih down, macdp, 833 almostbuy, MFI up, BD flat, FNB,w% flat, retracement pattern keliatan mau bawa naik after mantul di fibo 23, masih optimis double bottom jalan

Kemarin BUMN konstruksi semua digoreng, Infrastructure jadi keliatan jalan, selain JSMR yang sudah run duluan. Industrials ASII kemarin naik tinggi, BMTR semoga nyusul, Financials BBCA BBRI BMRI kemaren jalan,semoga lanjut biar bisa ngangkat index, repot gendong GOTO yang bikin rusak aja

Stochastic Buy Signal: ASII PGAS MTEL MTMH MIKA LMSH WINS

MACD Buy Signal: INTP ADHI MTMH PTPP TKIM ANJT

What Is a Paper Trade? Definition, Meaning, and How to Trade

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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What Is Paper Trade?

A paper trade is a simulated trade that allows an investor to practice buying and selling without risking real money. The term dates back to a time when (before the proliferation of online trading platforms) aspiring traders would practice on paper before risking money in live markets. While learning, a paper trader records all trades by hand to keep track of hypothetical trading positions, portfolios, and profits or losses. Today, most practice trading involves the use of an electronic stock market simulator, which looks and feels like an actual trading platform.

Key Takeaways

  • Paper trading is simulated trading that allows investors to practice buying and selling securities.
  • Paper trading can test a new investment strategy before employing it in a live account.
  • Many online brokers offer clients paper trade accounts.
  • Paper trades teach novices how to navigate platforms and make trades, but may not represent the true emotions that occur during real market conditions.

What Does Paper Trading Tell You?

The development of online trading platforms and software has increased the ease and popularity of paper trading. Today’s simulators allow investors to trade live markets without the commitment of actual capital and the process can help to gauge whether investment ideas have merit. Online brokers such as TradeStation, Fidelity, and TD Ameritrade’s thinkorswim offer clients paper trading simulators.

For example, TD Ameritrade’s paperMoney® is designed to help customers try options and different investment strategies without the worry of losing any money. Nearly everything about the simulator is the same as their feature-rich thinkorswim trading platform, except the investor is not trading real money. Investopedia provides a free simulator for trading stocks.

To get the most benefits from paper trading, an investment decision and the placing of trades should follow real trading practices and objectives. The paper investor should consider the same risk-return objectives, investment constraints, and trading horizon as they would use with a live account. For example, it would make little sense for a risk-averse long-term investor to practice numerous short-term trades like a day trader.

Also, paper transactions can be applied to many market conditions. As an example, a trade placed in a market characterized by high levels of market volatility is likely to result in higher slippage costs due to wider spreads compared to a market that is moving in an orderly manner. Slippage occurs when a trader obtains a different price than expected from the time the trade is initiated to the time the trade is made.

Investors and traders can use simulated trading to familiarize themselves with various order types such as stop-loss, limit orders, and market orders. Charts, quotes, and news feeds are available on many platforms as well.

Paper Trade Accounts vs. Live Accounts

Paper trading may provide a false sense of security and often results in distorted investment returns. In other words, nonconformity with the real market happens because paper trading does not involve the risk of real genuine capital. Also, paper trading allows for basic investment strategies—such as buying low and selling high—which are more challenging to adhere to in real life, but are relatively easy to achieve while paper trading.

The fact is that investors and traders are likely to exhibit different emotions and judgment when risking real money, which may lead them to different behavior when operating a live account. For example, consider a real trade by a new foreign exchange trader who enters into a long position with the euro against the U.S. dollar ahead of nonfarm payrolls data. If the report is much better than expected and the euro drops sharply, then the trader may double down in an attempt to recoup losses in a paper trade, as opposed to taking the loss as would be advisable in a real trade.

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Definition, Uses, Example in Technical Analysis

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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What Is a Horizontal Line?

In technical analysis, a horizontal line is often drawn on a price chart to highlight areas of support or resistance.

In geometric analysis, a horizontal line proceeds parallel to the x-axis. Put another way, on a perfectly horizontal line, all values on the line will have the same y-value.

Key Takeaways

  • A horizontal line is commonly used in technical analysis to mark areas of support or resistance.
  • A horizontal line runs parallel to the x-axis.
  • In technical analysis, the horizontal line is typically drawn along a swing high, or a series of them, where each high in the series stopped at a similar level. The same concept applies to swing lows.

Understanding a Horizontal Line

Horizontal lines are commonly used in technical analysis to highlight areas of support, where the price stopped falling and then bounced on prior occasions, or resistance, which is where the price stopped rising and then proceeded to fall on prior occasions.

The horizontal line is drawn by connecting similar swing lows in price to create a horizontal support line. For a horizontal resistance line, similar swing highs are connected.

The horizontal line is then used for analytical or trading purposes. For example, if the price of an asset is moving between support and resistance horizontal lines then the price is considered to be range-bound.

A move below the support horizontal line could indicate a further price decline, but if support holds and the price bounces higher then prices could be forthcoming. The same concepts apply to a resistance horizontal line. If the price moves above resistance, higher prices could be forthcoming. If the price reaches resistance and then starts to decline, the horizontal line has held and traders will watch for lower prices.

In more simple terms, a horizontal line on any chart is where the y-axis values are equal. If it has been drawn to show a series of highs in the data, a data point moving above the horizontal line would indicate a rise in the y-axis value over recent values in the data sample.

Fundamental Horizontal Analysis

Horizontal analysis is used to compare values or prices over time. This is an aspect of fundamental analysis in which an analyst will compare various earnings reports and statements over time. In this kind of analysis, time functions as the horizontal x-axis and allows analysts to calculate percentage changes over time, a useful tool for representing the degree of change.

Horizontal analysis looks at the trend of financial statements over multiple periods, using a specified base period, and typically shows the changes from the base period in dollars and percentages.

The percentage change is calculated by first dividing the dollar change between the comparison year and the base year by the item value in the base year, then multiplying the quotient by 100. For example, when you hear someone saying that revenues increased by 10% this past quarter, that person is using horizontal analysis.

Horizontal analysis can be used on any item in a company’s financials, from revenues to earnings per share (EPS), and is useful when comparing the performance of various companies.

A Horizontal Line as it Relates to Supply and Demand Curves

Supply and demand curves are drawn with price on the vertical axis of the graph and quantity demanded on the horizontal axis. When looking at supply and demand curves, a perfectly horizontal line indicates that an item has perfect elasticity, or that its demand is immediately responsive to changes in price. When the price of a perfectly elastic good or service increases above the market price, the quantity demanded falls to zero. With perfect elasticity, consumers simply are not willing to spend more than a specific price for a good or service.

Example of How to Use the Horizontal Line in Technical Analysis

Drawing a horizontal line is one of the simplest forms of technical analysis, but it also provides important information. On the chart below, a horizontal line is drawn on the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) exchange traded fund (ETF).

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


An uptrend is when a price makes higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Therefore, a horizontal line can highlight when price is making a new high, in this case, thus showing signs of an uptrend. On the SPY chart above, the price is moving above the horizontal line indicating an uptrend. If the price falls back below the horizontal line, it could warn that uptrend has failed and lower prices may be forthcoming.

In this sense, the horizontal line acts like a line in the sand, where moving above the line is bullish.

The Difference Between a Horizontal Line and a Trendline

Both these terms could refer to the same thing: drawn lines on a chart. While a horizontal line is specifically horizontal, a trendline is typically angled and drawn along rising swing lows during a price uptrend or drawn along dropping swing highs during a downtrend.

Limitations of Using a Horizontal Line in Technical Analysis

A horizontal line is not an actual barrier for price. It is a technical tool which may help traders determine whether they should be more bearish or bullish.

Where a horizontal line is drawn is subjective. Not all traders may place the horizontal line at the same price.

At highly important prices, where a horizontal line may be drawn, it is possible the price will whipsaw around it. This could cause confusion or some potential losing trades until the price makes a more decisive move above or below the line.

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Anticipate Trends to Find Profits

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Technical analysis is a useful tool that allows a trader to anticipate certain market activity before it occurs. These anticipations are drawn from previous chart patterns, probabilities of certain trade setups and a trader’s previous experience. Over time, anticipation can eliminate the need for over-analyzing market direction as well as identifying clear, objective areas of significance. It isn’t as hard as it sounds. Read on to find out how to anticipate the direction of a market trend and follow it through to a profit.

Anticipation vs. Prediction

Technical analysis is often referred to as some sort of black magic used to time the market. However, what many outside of the financial world don’t realize is that traders don’t try to predict the future. Instead, they create strategies that have a high probability of succeeding—situations where a trend or market movement can be anticipated.

Let’s face it: if traders could pick tops and bottoms on a consistent basis, they would be spending more time out in a Ferrari F430 convertible enjoying a nice stretch of highway than they would hunched over their computer screen. Many of you have probably tried picking tops and bottoms in the past and are through with the game. Perhaps you’re already following in the footsteps of many professional traders who attempt to find situations where they can anticipate a move and then take a portion of that move when the setups occur.

The Power of Anticipation

When deciding on whether or not to make a trade, you likely have your own strategies for entering and exiting the market. (If you don’t, you should decide on them before clicking the buy/sell button.) Technical traders use certain tools such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic, or the commodity channel index (CCI), along with recognizable chart patterns that have occurred in the past with a certain measured result.

Experienced traders will probably have a good idea of what the outcome of a trade will be as it plays out. If the trade is going against them as soon as they enter and it doesn’t turn around within the next few bars, odds are that they weren’t correct on their analysis. However, if the trade does go in their favor within the next few bars, then they can begin to look at moving the stops up to lock in gains as the position plays out. (“Bars” are used as a generic term here, as some of you may use candlesticks or line charts for trading.)

The figure below is an example of a trade taken on the British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) currency pair. It uses an exponential moving average (EMA) crossover to determine when to be long and when to be short. The blue line is a 10-period EMA, and the red is a 20-period EMA. When the blue line is over the red, you are long, and vice versa for shorts. In a trending market, this is a powerful setup to take because it allows you to participate in the large move that often follows this signal. The first arrow shows a false signal, while the second shows a very profitable signal.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021


This is where the power of anticipation comes into play. The active trader typically monitors open positions as they play out to see if any adjustments need to be made. Once you had gone long at the first arrow, within three bars, you would already be down more than 100 pips. By placing your stop at the longer-term trend moving average, you will probably want to be out of that trade anyway, as a potential reversal might be signaled.

On the second arrow, once you were long, it would only take a few days before this trade went in your favor. The trade management comes into play by trailing your stop up to your personal trading style. In this case, you could have used a close under the blue line as your stop, or waited for a close underneath the red line (longer-term moving average). By being active in position management—by following the market with your stops and accepting them when they are hit—you are far more likely to have greater returns in the long run than you would be if you removed the stop right before the market blasted through it.

The above figure illustrates the difference between anticipation and prediction. In this case, we are anticipating that this trade will have a similar result based on the results of previous trades. After all, this pattern was nearly identical to the one that worked before, and all other things remaining equal, it should have a decent enough chance to work in our favor.

So did we make a prediction about what would happen in this case? Absolutely not. If we had, we wouldn’t have put our stop-loss in place at the same time the trade was sent. Unlike anticipation, which uses past results to determine the probability of future ones, making an accurate prediction often involves a combination of luck and conjecture, making the results much less, well, predictable.

Limited Emotion

By monitoring the trade(s) in real-time and adjusting accordingly, we ensure that emotions aren’t able to get the better of us and cause a deviation from the original plan. Our plan originated before the position was taken (and thus had no conflict of interest), so we use this to look back on when the trade is active.

Since we already have a plan that involves no emotion, we are able to do as much as possible to stick to that plan during the heat of battle. Make a point of minimizing emotion, but not completely removing it. You’re only human, after all, and trading like a robot is nearly impossible for most traders, no matter how successful they are. We know what the market will look like if our anticipation both does and does not occur.

Therefore, by using the chart above, you can see where the signals clearly did and did not work as they were happening based on the price action of each bar and its relation to the moving averages. The key is to take ownership of your trades and act based on your trading plan time and time again.

The Bottom Line

Objectivity is essential to trading survival. Technical analysis provides many views of anticipation in a clear and concise manner, but as with everything else in life, it doesn’t provide a guarantee of success. However, by sticking to a trading plan day in and day out, our emotions are minimized and we can greatly increase the probability of making a winning trade. With time and experience, you can learn to anticipate the direction of your trades and improve your chances of achieving better returns.

Investopedia does not provide tax, investment, or financial services and advice. The information is presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

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