Daily Analysis 20240104

Daily Analysis 20240104

January 04th, 2024
Good morning,
Dow tumbles nearly 300 points Wednesday, Nasdaq closes lower for a 2nd straight day in 2024
The Nasdaq Composite
 fell for a second session Wednesday to start the year, building on its worst daily performance in nearly three months.
Dow……37430   -284.9   -0.76%
Nasdaq14592   -173.7   -1.18%
S&P 500.4705   -38.02   -0.80%
FTSE…..7682  -39.2     -0.51%
Dax……16538 -230.97 -1.38%
CAC……7412  -119.0    -1.58%
Nikkei..33464    closed   +0%
HSI…….16646   -142.1    -0.85%
Shanghai.2967 +4.97     +0.17%
IDX…..7379.09 -44.50    -0.61%
LQ45….973.38 -6.05       -0.38%
IDX30…494.25 -4.17       -0.84%
IDXEnergy..2134.80   -8.16     -0.38%
IDX BscMat.1326.31 -5.83     -0.44%
IDX Indstrl…1103.81 -1.70     -0.15%
IDXNONCYC.718.44 -5.97     -0.82%
IDX Hlthcare1341.16 -12.40  -0.92%
IDXCYCLIC…825.24  +3.63    +0.44%
IDX Techno4418.00  +0.19    +0.02%
IDX Transp 1656.97 +2.01     +0.12%
IDX Infrast  1577.29. +0.98   +0.06%
IDX Finance.1448.02 -4.07.   -0.28%
IDX Banking.1267.99 -1.01    -0.08%
IDX Property.. 709      -0.90    -0.12%
Indo10Yr.6.6494+0.0333 +0.50%
ICBI…374.1959  -0.4937  -0.13%
US2Yr.4.333  +0.009   +0.21%
US5Yr 3.905  -0.017    -0.43%
US10Yr3.920 -0.021    -0.53%
US30Yr.4.070-0.013    -0.32%
VIX….14.04  +0.84  +6.36%‼️
USDIndx 102.4570 +0.221 +0.22%
Como Indx..265.25  +2.62    +1.00%
BCOMIN……139.93   -1.24     -0.88%
 IndoCDS..69.23    -0.06    -0.09%
  (5-yr INOCD5) (02/01)
IDR…..15481.00 +11.00 +0.07%
Jisdor.15495.00 +22.00 +0.14%
Euro….1.0920  -0.0022  -0.20%
TLKM…25.62  -0.28   -1.08%
(3970)
EIDO….22.05   -0.16   -0.72%
EEM….39.52   -0.22    -0.55%
Oil……..72.70  +2.32  +3.30%‼️
Gold..2042.80 -30.60 -1.48%
Timah..25184.00 -231   -0.91%
(Closed 02/01)
Nickel..16425.00 -140   -0.85%
(Closed 03/01)
Silver……23.16   -0.80     -3.32%
Copper.386.15   -1.90     -0.49%
Iron Ore 62% 136.37   –        -%
 (02/01)
Nturl Gas..2.687  +0.113  +4.39%‼️
Ammonia China.3656.67 +33.34 +0.92%
(Domestic Price)(02/02)
Coal price.128.50  +0.75  +0.59%
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price 127.09  +0.15  +0.67%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price.125.75  +0.90  +0.72%
(Mar/Newcastle)
Coal price 124.40  +0.50  +0.40%
(Apr/Newcastle)
Coal price.108.95 +2.80   +2.64%
(Jan/Rotterdam)
Coal price 103.75 +2.20  +2.17%
(Feb/Rotterdam).
Coal price. 99.25  +2.15  +2.21%
(Mar/Rotterdam)
Coal price .97.20  +2.00  +2.10%
(Apr/Rotterdam)
CPO(Mar)..3624   -36        -0.98%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn……465.25     +1.50    +0.32%
SoybeanOil 48.60 +0.31    +0.64%
Wheat….600.25    -6.50      -1.07%
Wood pulp..5050.00 +10  +0.20%
(Closed 02/01)
©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia

Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Update Global Economic Calendar
3 Jan 2023

GERMANY MARKET :
Unemployment Change (Dec)
Actual : 5K
Forecast : 20K
Previous : 22K

Unemployment Rate (Dec)
Actual : 5.9%
Forecast : 5.9%
Previous : 5.9%

Unemployment Persons (Dec)
Actual : 2.703M
Forecast : –
Previous : 2.702M

U.S MARKET :
MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec/29)
Actual : -10.7%
Forecast : –
Previous : -1.5%

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Dec/29)
Actual : 6.76%
Forecast : –
Previous : 6.83%

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Actual : 47.4
Forecast : 47.1
Previous : 46.7

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec)
Actual : 48.1
Forecast : 46.1
Previous : 45.8

ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Dec)
Actual : 47.1
Forecast : –
Previous : 48.3

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

US merah dalem, keliatanya karena release berita ISM manufacturing unemployment dan new order turun. europe merah, asia juga, IHSG kemaren memang sudah diduga jadwal turun, sekarang diharap naik tapi kalo global merah semua rada berat. Semoga hanya sideways atau koreksi kecil

US bond rates ga banyak rubah, USD index naik, metal turun semua, oil gas coal naik, CPO masih turun. Kayanya belum jalan ini ANTM INCO TINS MDKA, tapi harusnya major udah uptrend. AALI LSIP juga

IHSG – stoch up flattening OB, MACD up flattening, MFI sw, w% masih uptrend, BD mulai dist, FNS, udah di wave 5, agak mengkhawatirkan…

Cacing RSI malah all good, Consumer Non-Cyclicals sama Consumer Cyclicals yang arahnya paling bagus

Stochastic Buy Signal: AKRA ARTO GOTO TOWR ADHI HEAL ISAT JSMR PTPP. yang big accum cuma TOWR

MACD Buy Signal: BRIS BBKP BRMS Big accum BRIS BBKP

Stochastic Continuation Signal: INCO big acc MPMX spike

Daily Analysis 20230721

Daily Analysis 20230721

July 21st 2023

Good morning,

Dow rises more than 100 points to notch first 9-day rally since 2017. Nasdaq tumbles 2%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped for a ninth consecutive day on Thursday after better-than-expected earnings results from drugmaker Johnson & Johnson. It was the Dow’s best daily winning streak since 2017.

But the broader market suffered after post-earnings declines in trader favorites Netflix and Tesla.

Dow……35225 +163.97 +0.47%
*Nasdaq14064 -294.7 -2.05%*
S&P 500.4535 -30.9 -0.68%

FTSE…..7646 +57.9 +0.76%
Dax……15204 +95.3 +0.59%
CAC……7385 +57.97 +0.79%

Nikkei…32491 -406.51 -1.23%
HSI…….18928 -24.3 -0.13%
Shanghai.3170 -29.3 -0.92%

IDX…..6864.19 +33.99 +0.50%
LQ45….961.53 +3.16 +0.33%
IDX30…499.59 +2.06. +0.41%

IDXEnergy…1896.18 +29.14 +1.56%
IDX BscMat.1046.76 +7.52 +0.72%
IDX Indstrl…1191.18 +1.29 +0.10%
IDXNONCYC.754.31 -2.09 -0.28%
IDX Hlthcare1533.91 -8.01 -0.52%
IDXCYCLIC….928.05 +2.33 +0.25%
IDX Techno.4883.29 -48.05 -0.97%
IDX Transp..1904.44 +6.92 +0.36%
IDX Infrast… .851.03 +3.27 +0.39%
IDX Finance.1434.67 +12.02 +0.85%
IDX Banking.1205.89 +12.24 +1.03%
*IDX Property..766 +11.50 +1.53%*

*Indo10Yr.6.3110*+0.0043 +0.07%
*ICBI….369.1376* -0.031 -0.01%
*US2Yr.4.8450* +0.077 +1.61%
*US5Yr 4.1050 +0.123 +3.09%‼️*
*US10Yr3.8510 +0.097 +2.58%*
*US30Yr.3.9200*+0.069 +1.79%
*VIX…….13.99 +0.23 +1.67%*

*USDIndx 100.8800* +0.5990 +0.60%
Como Indx…274.+0 +1.61 +0.59%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…….143.77 +1.18 +0.83%

*IndoCDS.82.24 – -%*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(18/07)*

*IDR…..14986.00 -11.00 -0.07%*
*Jisdor.14991.00 -3.00 -0.02%*

*Euro……1.1134* -0.0069 -0.62%

TLKM…25.63 -0.07 -0.27%
*(3793)*
EIDO….23.47 -0.06 -0.25%
EEM…..40.38 -0.30 -0.74%

Oil…..75.63 +0.40 +0.53%
*Gold…2011.40* -7.10 -0.35%
Timah..28540.00 – -%
*(Closed 18/07)*
*Nickel..21332.00 +400.50 +1.91%*
(Closed 20/07)
Silver…. 24.96 -0.35 -1.38%
Copper.382.95 +1.75 +0.46%

Iron Ore 62% 112.08 -0.09 -0.08%
(19/07)
*Nturl Gas.2.747 +0.1260 +4.81%‼️*
Ammonia China..2816.67 -16.66 -0.59%
(Domestic Price)(19/07)

Coal price.132.00 unch +0/%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.140.00 +1.60 +1.16%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.141.95 +1.80 +1.28%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price.145.00 +2.25 +1.58%
(Oct/Newcastle)

Coal price109.75 +1.75 +1.62%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
*Coal price.111.60 +5.60 +5.28%‼️*
(Agt/ Rotterdam)
*Coal price.111.35 +5.85 +5.55%‼️*
(Sept/Rotterdam)
*Coal price.111.00 +5.80 +5.51%‼️*
(Oct/Rotterdam)

*CPO(Okt)..4047 +153 +3.92%‼️*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn….546.25 -6.75 -1.22%
SoybeanOil 62.42 +0.98 +1.60%
Wheat…727.00 -0.75 -0.10%

*Wood pulp..4380.00* unch +0%
(Closed 20/07)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_
*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

DJI lanjut naik, Nasdaq drop. Europe ijo, asia merah kecuali IHSG. Semoga lanjut ijo IHSG hari ini.

USD index naik lagi, gols silver merah copper merah, nickel ijo, oil gas coal naik udah waktunya energy jalan lagi kayanya. CPO naik tinggi kita tunggu bangunnya AALI LSIP

Reminder !
LQ45 Major Rebalancing Jul23

Estimasi announcement akan dipublish pada minggu depan & efektif per penutupan market diperdagangan 31 Juli 2023. Beberapa saham potensial masuk & potensial keluar dengan asumsi memperhatikan likuiditas transaksi selama 1Q-2Q 2023 antara lain :

• Potential Inclusion
BUMI, ADMR, GGRM, ISAT, BRMS, MAPI
• Potential Exclusion
TINS, SIDO, SCMA, JPFA, TPIA, EMTK

*Disclaimer On
IndoPremier Wealth Management

Harus hati2 sama EMTK nih, masih ada di porto, kalo beneran keluar LQ45 kemungkinan besar dibanting lagi

IHSG – stoch sell, 833 down, MACD still up, FNB terus, BD acc, IHNS target udah done kemaren udah koreksi, kita liat target triple bottom yang lebih besar. MInimal target ke fibo 61 dulu

Technology Healthcare Property, Basic Materials sama Energy masih leading tapi lagi shaky. Yang ga asiknya financials slow down, padahal index ga bisa jalan kalo financials ga jalan

Stochastic Buy Signal: BBNI PGAS TBIG ENRG RAJA

MACD buy signal: EXCL BTPS GGRM PWON RAJA TOBA

Alligator Buy Signal: ANTM BFIN

Supertrend Buy Signal: BSDE