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How to Use RRG Charts in Trading

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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The relative rotation graph (RRG) is a sophisticated tool in technical analysis to help investors decide which sectors, individual stocks, and other assets to pursue. Investors can use it to visually compare the performance and momentum of securities and asset classes against a benchmark. RRGs plot assets on a two-dimensional graph, with the x-axis representing the relative strength ratio and the y-axis for relative strength momentum. This format enables traders and investors to visually assess the relative strength and trendline of different securities, making it valuable for trading, rotation, and asset allocation strategies.

Key Takeaways

  • The relative rotation graph (RRG) is a chart used in technical analysis to test the performance and momentum of securities or asset classes against a benchmark.
  • RRGs provide a comprehensive view of the market, helping investors to spot trends, compare multiple securities simultaneously, and make more informed decisions when rebalancing portfolios.
  • RRGs should be used with other forms of analysis since they are a partial view of the market.
  • Several tools and resources are available to create and analyze RRGs, ranging from professional-grade software from Bloomberg and Optuma to more accessible platforms like StockCharts.com.

What is the Relative Rotation Graph?

RRGs are used to identify which stocks or sectors are underperforming and outperforming a market index or benchmark. The RRG has four quadrants: leading, weakening, lagging, and improving. Each quadrant is for different stages of an asset’s performance cycle, providing insights into the rotation of market leadership. This movement of securities through the quadrants helps to spotting trends and potential reversals and could provide investors with a strategic advantage in both short-term and long-term trading.

RRGs were created by Julius de Kempenaer in the early 1990s to visualize the relative performance of stocks and other securities against a benchmark and each other. De Kempenaer’s work has been valuable for helping investors make more informed decisions about trading, rotation, and asset allocation.

RRGs are an excellent visual way of analyzing market trends and relative performance. However, like all technical tools, they should be used with other techniques for a more comprehensive approach to trading and investing.

Understanding the Parts of the Relative Rotation Graph

The key elements of RRG and how they indicate relative strength and momentum are as follows:

  • Axes: The x-axis is the relative strength ratio. This axis measures the performance of a security relative to a benchmark (hence, the strength is “relative”). A value more than 100 indicates outperformance, while a value less than 100 indicates underperformance. The y-axis represents the momentum of the relative strength. This axis shows the rate of change in the relative performance. It is essentially the momentum of the relative strength ratio,
  • Top right quadrant: The top right quadrant in the RRG is the leading quadrant. Securities in this quadrant are outperforming the benchmark, and their momentum is positive. This indicates strong and improving performance.
  • Bottom right quadrant: The bottom right quadrant is the weakening quadrant. Here, securities are still outperforming the benchmark, but their momentum is decreasing. Being here suggests that while they are strong, they might be losing their edge.
  • Bottom left quadrant: This is the lagging quadrant. Securities in this area are underperforming the benchmark with negative momentum. It is a sign of weakness.

  • Top left quadrant: This is the improving quadrant. This quadrant contains securities that are underperforming the benchmark but show increasing momentum. Being here suggests the potential for a turnaround.
  • Data points and movement: Each security or asset is represented as a data point on the graph. The position of a data point within the graph indicates its relative strength and momentum. The movement of these data points is tracked over time, usually in a clockwise direction through the quadrants, which illustrates the evolution of their relative performance.

RRGs help investors spot trends and compare several securities at once. However, RRGs should be used with other forms of analysis since they provide a relative, not absolute, view.

How to Interpret Relative Rotation Graphs

Interpreting RRGs involve analyzing the patterns and movements of securities on this chart to identify market leaders, laggards, and potential rotation opportunities.


Weekly Relative Rotation Graph of Magnificent Seven Stocks as at 18th December 2023.

stockcharts.com


Movements and Patterns in RRGs

Securities in the RRG generally move clockwise through the four quadrants. This rotation reflects the natural ebb and flow of securities’ relative strength and momentum relative to a benchmark. In addition, the further a security is from the center, the stronger its relative strength or weakness is compared with the benchmark. A security far out in the leading or lagging quadrant has a strong trend, whether positive or negative.

The speed at which a security moves through the quadrants can indicate the stability of its trend. Rapid movements might suggest more volatile or less stable trends. Indeed, many RRGs show tails behind the data points, representing their historical path. Longer tails provide more context on historical performance and trend stability.

Identifying Market Leaders and Laggards

Securities in the leading quadrant are outperforming the benchmark with positive momentum and are considered market leaders. A security with a presence or movement deeper into this quadrant suggests a strong and stable outperformance. Meanwhile, securities in the lagging quadrant are underperforming and have negative momentum. These are the laggards of the market. A security that is continuously in or moving deeper into this quadrant has a strong downtrend relative to the benchmark.


Monthly US Sector Rotation as at December 1 2023.

stockcharts.com


Identifying Rotational Opportunities

A security moving from the improving quadrant into the leading quadrant can be an opportunity. This shift indicates a security is starting to outperform the benchmark with increasing momentum. Similarly, a security moving from the weakening to the lagging quadrant suggests that its previous outperformance is deteriorating, and it is now starting to underperform. This could signal a selling opportunity or a warning to avoid new investments.

Meanwhile, a move from lagging to improving suggests that a security is beginning to reverse its underperformance. This indicates an early stage of recovery, a potential buying opportunity for contrarian investors. Also, securities shifting from leading to weakening are still outperforming but are losing momentum. This could be a signal to take the profits or closely watch the situation to see if it continues losing steam.

Using Relative Rotation Graphs with Other Technical Tools

RRGs can be more effective when put together with other charts in the technical analyst’s toolkit. For example, once an RRG helps determine sectors or stocks that are showing relative strength, you can then review stocks in those sectors in greater depth. Candlestick patterns and volume analysis can give more details on the trading behavior for specific stocks, clueing you in about potential reversals in price trends. Indicators like moving averages, the relative strength index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands can also be used to assess the momentum and volatility of these stocks, helping you decide on entries and exits.

In addition, the RRG’s ability to depict sector rotation can provide great help for those using a top-down investment approach. When showing the sectors moving into the leading quadrant, you might allocate more to sectors poised for growth and reduce your exposure to those going into the lagging quadrant. This sector rotation strategy can be particularly useful during different phases of the economic cycle, as certain sectors tend to do better than others based on the economic conditions. This then points to how fundamental analysis can be used with RRG for a fuller picture of particular sectors and their prospects.

Benefits and Limitations of Relative Rotation Graphs

RRGs offer several advantages and limitations when used in trading, analysis, and portfolio management. Understanding these can help make better use of them for investing.

Benefits and Limitations of Relative Rotation Graphs

Benefits

  • Easy Visualization of Market Dynamics

  • Comparison Tool

  • Helps Identify Trends

  • Helps with Timely Decision Making

  • Complements Other Analysis

  • Helps with Deciding Asset Allocation

Limitations

  • Shows Relative, Not Absolute Rotation

  • Lagging Indicator

  • Requires a Benchmark

  • Not a Standalone Tool

  • Provides no Indication of Value

Benefits of Relative Rotation Graphs

Here are some benefits of RRGs:

  • Visualizing market dynamics: RRGs provide a clear, visual representation of the relative strength and momentum of various securities or sectors, making it easier to understand complex market moves.
  • Comparison tool: With RRGs, you can compare several securities simultaneously against a benchmark, which can be valuable for portfolio diversification and sector rotation strategies.
  • Identifying trends: RRGs help pick out leaders, laggards, and emerging trends by observing the movement of securities through different quadrants.
  • Timely decision-making: The dynamic nature of RRGs aids investors in making timely decisions by highlighting changes in momentum and strength before they become evident through price movements alone.
  • Complementing other analyses: RRGs can be used alongside other technical, fundamental, and quantitative analysis tools, providing a more holistic view of the market.
  • Sector and asset allocation: RRGs are particularly useful for sector analysis and distributing assets since they help identify industries or asset classes likely to outperform or underperform.

Limitations of Relative Rotation Graphs

Here are some limitations of RRGs:

  • Relative, not absolute, rotation: RRGs illustrate the performance relative to a benchmark, not the absolute performance. A security in the leading quadrant could still be losing value in a bear market.
  • Lagging indicator: RRGs inherently lag. They reflect past performance and trends, which may not always predict future movements.
  • Requires a benchmark: The effectiveness of RRGs depends on the choice of an appropriate benchmark, which can vary based on the assets.
  • Not a stand-alone tool: RRGs should not to be used in isolation. They do not deliver insights into company fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, or market sentiment.
  • No indication of value: RRGs do not provide information about the value of securities. A stock might be moving into the leading quadrant but still be overpriced.

While RRGs are powerful for visualizing and analyzing market trends and relative performance, they are most effective when used as part of a broader, diversified approach to investment analysis and decision-making. Understanding their limitations is crucial to avoid overestimating their relevance.

Differences Between the Relative Rotation Graph and the Relative Strength Index

The Relative Rotation Graph vs. the Relative Strength Index

Relative Rotation Graph (RRG)

  • Scope: RRG is used to compare several securities against a benchmark.

  • Dimensions: RRG provides a two-dimensional view.

  • Interpretation: RRG is better for relative performance and identifying trends.

  • Usage: RRG is typically used for asset allocation and sector rotation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

  • Scope: The RSI is used for analyzing the price momentum of a single security.

  • Dimensions: The RSI is a one-dimensional oscillator.

  • Interpretation: The RSI illustrates momentum and potential price reversals.

  • Usage: RSI is commonly used to identify potential entries and exits.

The RRG and the relative strength index (RSI) are both used in technical analysis, but serve different purposes and provide different kinds of information. RRGs are used for comparing several securities against a benchmark, while the RSI is for analyzing the price momentum of a single security. In addition, RRGs offer a two-dimensional view (strength and momentum), while the RSI is a one-dimensional oscillator (it constructs high and low bands and provides a trend indicator).

RRG is best used for relative performance and identifying trends. Meanwhile, the RSI is best for ascertaining momentum and potential price reversals. Another set of differences is that RRG is often used for asset allocation and sector rotation, while the RSI commonly helps identify potential entries and exits.

As such, RRG is more for visualizing and comparing the relative strength and trends of multiple securities, and the RSI sets out the momentum of individual securities and can help identify when there are overbought or oversold conditions.

Resources for Creating Relative Rotation Graphs

Making your RRGs requires specialized tools and resources, as these graphs involve complex calculations and dynamic visuals. Here are some great tools to use:

  • RRG Research: Founded by Julius de Kempenaer, the creator of RRGs, the firm’s site provides tools and insights related to RRGs. The website offers educational resources, analysis, and access to RRGs.
  • Bloomberg Professional Services Software: The Bloomberg Professional Services software, a leading financial data and analytics platform, offers RRG charts as part of its services. It provides functions for creating and customizing RRGs, making it a popular choice among professional investors and analysts.
  • Refinitiv Eikon: This platform is another leading financial data and analytics provider that offers RRG charts as part of its services.
  • StockCharts.com: This online platform offers various chart tools, including RRGs. It has a user-friendly interface for creating RRGs, suitable for professionals and individual investors.
  • Optuma: Optuma is a professional-level technical analysis software that includes RRGs among its features. Known for its advanced analysis tools, Optuma caters to professional traders and analysts.

The tool you choose depends on your needs, skill level, and access to resources.

Which Technical Analysis Indicators Work Well with Relative Rotation Graphs?

Combining RRGs with other indicators can provide a more comprehensive view of the market and help refine investment strategies. Some indicators include moving averages, the RSI, the moving average convergence divergence, Bollinger Bands, support and resistance levels, and other chart patterns.

What Asset Groups Work Well with Relative Rotation Graphs?

RRGs are best used to analyze asset groups when relative performance is key. These can include equity sectors and industries, exchange-traded funds, indexes, benchmarks, fixed-income securities, commodities, and currencies. RRGs’ ability to compare several assets simultaneously makes them invaluable for a wide range of investment strategies from picking individual stocks to deciding on broad asset allocations. However, with all financial and investment tools, they should be used as part of a broader, diversified approach to market analysis and not relied upon in isolation.

Which Benchmarks Work Well with Relative Rotation Graphs?

The benchmark chosen is critical in interpreting RRGs, setting the standard against which the other securities or asset classes are measured. The benchmark to use depends on the type of assets being analyzed and the specific goals of the analysis. Some commonly used benchmarks include broad market, sector, fixed-income, commodity, regional, country-specific, currency, real estate, and thematic indexes.

How Can the Reliability of Relative Rotation Graphs Be Improved?

Increasing the reliability of RRGs involves choosing the right benchmarks, using quality data, understanding the tool’s limitations, and integrating it with other forms of analysis. Regular reviews, adaptation to changing market conditions, and ongoing education are essential for effectively using RRGs in trading and investments.

The Bottom Line

RRGs are vital for some types of technical analysis, offering a way to visualize the relative performance and momentum of different securities against a chosen benchmark. Its design, characterized by placing securities in four distinct quadrants—labeled leading, weakening, lagging, and improving—allows traders and investors to quickly grasp shifts in the market and identify assets gaining or losing strength against others. This makes RRGs particularly useful for strategies involving sector rotation, asset allocation, and portfolio diversification.

For traders, RRGs provide a strategic edge by enabling a clear understanding of various market segments’ relative trends and strengths. By integrating RRG analysis with other technical indicators and fundamental insights, traders can identify potential entry and exit points more effectively.

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Alpha: What It Means in Investing, With Examples

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

Alpha: What It Means in Investing, With Examples

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What Is Alpha?

Alpha (α) is a term used in investing to describe an investment strategy’s ability to beat the market, or its “edge.” Alpha is thus also often referred to as “excess return” or “abnormal rate of return,” which refers to the idea that markets are efficient, and so there is no way to systematically earn returns that exceed the broad market as a whole. Alpha is often used in conjunction with beta (the Greek letter β), which measures the broad market’s overall volatility or risk, known as systematic market risk.

Alpha is used in finance as a measure of performance, indicating when a strategy, trader, or portfolio manager has managed to beat the market return over some period. Alpha, often considered the active return on an investment, gauges the performance of an investment against a market index or benchmark that is considered to represent the market’s movement as a whole.

The excess return of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index is the investment’s alpha. Alpha may be positive or negative and is the result of active investing. Beta, on the other hand, can be earned through passive index investing.

Key Takeaways

  • Alpha refers to excess returns earned on an investment above the benchmark return.
  • Active portfolio managers seek to generate alpha in diversified portfolios, with diversification intended to eliminate unsystematic risk.
  • Because alpha represents the performance of a portfolio relative to a benchmark, it is often considered to represent the value that a portfolio manager adds to or subtracts from a fund’s return.
  • Jensen’s alpha takes into consideration the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and includes a risk-adjusted component in its calculation.

Understanding Alpha

Alpha is one of five popular technical investment risk ratios. The others are beta, standard deviation, R-squared, and the Sharpe ratio. These are all statistical measurements used in modern portfolio theory (MPT). All of these indicators are intended to help investors determine the risk-return profile of an investment.

Active portfolio managers seek to generate alpha in diversified portfolios, with diversification intended to eliminate unsystematic risk. Because alpha represents the performance of a portfolio relative to a benchmark, it is often considered to represent the value that a portfolio manager adds to or subtracts from a fund’s return.

In other words, alpha is the return on an investment that is not a result of a general movement in the greater market. As such, an alpha of zero would indicate that the portfolio or fund is tracking perfectly with the benchmark index and that the manager has not added or lost any additional value compared to the broad market.

The concept of alpha became more popular with the advent of smart beta index funds tied to indexes like the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. These funds attempt to enhance the performance of a portfolio that tracks a targeted subset of the market.

Despite the considerable desirability of alpha in a portfolio, many index benchmarks manage to beat asset managers the vast majority of the time. Due in part to a growing lack of faith in traditional financial advising brought about by this trend, more and more investors are switching to low-cost, passive online advisors (often called roboadvisors​) who exclusively or almost exclusively invest clients’ capital into index-tracking funds, the rationale being that if they cannot beat the market they may as well join it.

Moreover, because most “traditional” financial advisors charge a fee, when one manages a portfolio and nets an alpha of zero, it actually represents a slight net loss for the investor. For example, suppose that Jim, a financial advisor, charges 1% of a portfolio’s value for his services and that during a 12-month period Jim managed to produce an alpha of 0.75 for the portfolio of one of his clients, Frank. While Jim has indeed helped the performance of Frank’s portfolio, the fee that Jim charges is in excess of the alpha he has generated, so Frank’s portfolio has experienced a net loss. For investors, the example highlights the importance of considering fees in conjunction with performance returns and alpha.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) postulates that market prices incorporate all available information at all times, and so securities are always properly priced (the market is efficient.) Therefore, according to the EMH, there is no way to systematically identify and take advantage of mispricings in the market because they do not exist.

If mispricings are identified, they are quickly arbitraged away and so persistent patterns of market anomalies that can be taken advantage of tend to be few and far between.

Empirical evidence comparing historical returns of active mutual funds relative to their passive benchmarks indicates that fewer than 10% of all active funds are able to earn a positive alpha over a 10-plus year time period, and this percentage falls once taxes and fees are taken into consideration. In other words, alpha is hard to come by, especially after taxes and fees.

Because beta risk can be isolated by diversifying and hedging various risks (which comes with various transaction costs), some have proposed that alpha does not really exist, but that it simply represents the compensation for taking some un-hedged risk that hadn’t been identified or was overlooked.

Seeking Investment Alpha

Alpha is commonly used to rank active mutual funds as well as all other types of investments. It is often represented as a single number (like +3.0 or -5.0), and this typically refers to a percentage measuring how the portfolio or fund performed compared to the referenced benchmark index (i.e., 3% better or 5% worse).

Deeper analysis of alpha may also include “Jensen’s alpha.” Jensen’s alpha takes into consideration the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market theory and includes a risk-adjusted component in its calculation. Beta (or the beta coefficient) is used in the CAPM, which calculates the expected return of an asset based on its own particular beta and the expected market returns. Alpha and beta are used together by investment managers to calculate, compare, and analyze returns.

The entire investing universe offers a broad range of securities, investment products, and advisory options for investors to consider. Different market cycles also have an influence on the alpha of investments across different asset classes. This is why risk-return metrics are important to consider in conjunction with alpha.

Examples

This is illustrated in the following two historical examples for a fixed income ETF and an equity ETF:

The iShares Convertible Bond ETF (ICVT) is a fixed income investment with low risk. It tracks a customized index called the Bloomberg U.S. Convertible Cash Pay Bond > $250MM Index. The 3-year standard deviation was 18.94%, as of Feb. 28, 2022. The year-to-date return, as of Feb. 28, 2022, was -6.67%. The Bloomberg U.S. Convertible Cash Pay Bond > $250MM Index had a return of -13.17% over the same period. Therefore, the alpha for ICVT was -0 12% in comparison to the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index and a 3-year standard deviation of 18.97%.

However, since the aggregate bond index is not the proper benchmark for ICVT (it should be the Bloomberg Convertible index), this alpha may not be as large as initially thought; and in fact, may be misattributed since convertible bonds have far riskier profiles than plain vanilla bonds.

The WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRW) is an equity investment with higher market risk that seeks to invest in dividend growth equities. Its holdings track a customized index called the WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Index. It had a three-year annualized standard deviation of 10.58%, higher than ICVT.

As of Feb. 28, 2022, DGRW annualized return was 18.1%, which was also higher than the S&P 500 at 16.4%, so it had an alpha of 1.7% in comparison to the S&P 500. But again, the S&P 500 may not be the correct benchmark for this ETF, since dividend-paying growth stocks are a very particular subset of the overall stock market, and may not even be inclusive of the 500 most valuable stocks in America.

Alpha Considerations

While alpha has been called the “holy grail” of investing, and as such, receives a lot of attention from investors and advisors alike, there are a couple of important considerations that one should take into account when using alpha.

  1. A basic calculation of alpha subtracts the total return of an investment from a comparable benchmark in its asset category. This alpha calculation is primarily only used against a comparable asset category benchmark, as noted in the examples above. Therefore, it does not measure the outperformance of an equity ETF versus a fixed income benchmark. This alpha is also best used when comparing the performance of similar asset investments. Thus, the alpha of the equity ETF, DGRW, is not relatively comparable to the alpha of the fixed income ETF, ICVT.
  2. Some references to alpha may refer to a more advanced technique. Jensen’s alpha takes into consideration CAPM theory and risk-adjusted measures by utilizing the risk-free rate and beta.

When using a generated alpha calculation it is important to understand the calculations involved. Alpha can be calculated using various different index benchmarks within an asset class. In some cases, there might not be a suitable pre-existing index, in which case advisors may use algorithms and other models to simulate an index for comparative alpha calculation purposes.

Alpha can also refer to the abnormal rate of return on a security or portfolio in excess of what would be predicted by an equilibrium model like CAPM. In this instance, a CAPM model might aim to estimate returns for investors at various points along an efficient frontier. The CAPM analysis might estimate that a portfolio should earn 10% based on the portfolio’s risk profile. If the portfolio actually earns 15%, the portfolio’s alpha would be 5.0, or +5% over what was predicted in the CAPM model.

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