Posts Tagged ‘Adjusting’

23 Jan 2024

Donchian Channels: Formula, Calculations and Uses

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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Donchian channels, a popular technical analysis tool, particularly among commodity traders, was developed by Richard Donchian, a pioneer in managed futures. These channels are primarily used to identify breakout points in price moves, which are key for traders looking to capture significant trends.

Key Takeaways

Donchian channels are a popular technical analysis tool, particularly among commodity traders.
The Donchian channel is formed by plotting two boundary lines: the upper line marks the highest security price over a set number of periods, and the lower line marks the lowest price over the same time.
Donchian channels are a versatile tool in technical analysis, offering several practical applications for traders and investors alike.
Combining moving averages, volume indicators, and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) with Donchian channels can lead to a more complete picture of the market for an asset.
Donchian channels can offer clarity for identifying trends and breakout signals. However, their effectiveness hinges on carefully considering period length, market conditions, risk, and match with other indicators.

The Donchian channel is formed by plotting two boundary lines: the upper line marks the highest security price over a set number of periods, and the lower line marks the lowest price over the same periods. The default setting for Donchian channels is 20 periods, the typical number of trading days in a month.

The middle line, frequently included in Donchian channel calculations, represents the average of the upper and lower boundaries. This tool is particularly effective in trending markets, allowing traders to visualize price volatility and momentum. When the price breaks through the upper channel, it may indicate a buying opportunity, signaling a bullish trend. Conversely, a break below the lower channel could be a bearish signal, potentially a prompt to short. However, in range-bound markets, Donchian channels may produce frequent false signals. Thus, this tool is often used with other indicators to confirm trends and filter out noise.

Understanding the Formula and Calculation

Technical analysis in trading evaluates and predicts future price moves and trends for securities. One tool employed is the Donchian channel. While the mathematical formula behind it is straightforward, online trading platforms, charting software, and technical analysis apps can calculate and plot the Donchian channels for you. This convenience is helpful, but it’s also important to understand the nuts and bolts to know the tool’s benefits and limits.

Calculating the Donchian channels involves three basic components: the upper band, the lower band, and the middle band. The middle band is optional. The key aspect of this tool is the period (N), which determines the channel’s sensitivity. A lower value for N makes the channel more sensitive to price moves, while a higher value makes it less sensitive, capturing broader price trends. The selection of N depends on the trader’s strategy, with shorter periods used for shorter-term trading and longer periods for long-term trend following.

The Upper Band

The upper band is calculated by identifying the higher price of the asset over a set number of periods (N).

$Upper Band = max(High over the last N periods)$

The Lower Band

This is the lowest price of the asset over the same number of periods (N).

$Lower Band = min(low over the last N periods)$

The Middle Band

The middle band is the average of the upper and lower bands.

$Middle Band = (Upper Band + Lower Band)/2$

Practical Uses of Donchian Channels

Donchian channels are versatile in technical analysis, with applications that include the following:

Identifying trends: A major use of Donchian channels is to identify the prevailing trend in the market. When the price of an asset consistently trades near the upper band, this indicates a strong uptrend, suggesting bullish sentiment. Conversely, trading near the lower band signals a downtrend, signaling a bearish sentiment.
Breakout signals: They are particularly effective in spotting breakout opportunities. A breakout above the upper band signals a potential buying opportunity since it suggests that the asset might continue to rise. Meanwhile, a break below the lower band can signal a selling or short-selling opportunity since it could suggest the decline has further to go.
Support and resistance levels: The upper and lower bands of the Donchian channel can suggest the support and resistance levels. Traders frequently watch them closely to make buying or selling decisions. For instance, a bounce off the lower band might be seen as a buying opportunity, while resistance at the upper band can be a cue to sell.

Stop loss and exit points: Donchian channels can help set stop loss orders and determine exit points. For example, a common strategy is to place a stop loss order just below the lower band when buying, which helps limit potential losses if the market moves unfavorably.
Measure of volatility: The width of the Donchian channel can serve as an indicator of market volatility. A wider channel indicates higher volatility, as the price is making larger swings over the set period. Conversely, a narrow channel indicates lower volatility.
Filtering noise: In longer-term trading strategies, setting a longer term for the Donchian channels can help filter market noise and help you focus on the relevant price moves.

It should be noted that, like any trading tool in technical analysis, Donchian channels are not foolproof. Traders should know the risk of false breakouts and their limits in sideways markets.

Coordinating Donchian Channels With Other Tools

Donchian channels can be integrated with other technical analysis tools to bolster a trading strategy. Here are several ways to do so:

Moving averages and volume: Moving averages are used to smooth out price data for a period by creating a constantly updated average price. You can lay them over a Donchian channel to confirm or isolate trends. Also, you can use volume charts to confirm the solidity of a breakout signaled by the Donchian channel.

Relative strength index (RSI): This measures how rapid price shifts occur. Often, technical analysts use this data, scored between 0 and 100, to recognize when there’s too much buying or selling of a security. You can use RSI with a Donchian channel to initiate or back off trades. For example, a breakout beyond the upper band, with a high RSI, could suggest an overtraded security and signal the need for caution before buying. Alternatively, a breakout below the lower band and a low RSI could indicate the security is oversold, a signal of a potential buying opportunity.

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD): Using MACD with Donchian channels combines trend and momentum strategies. MACD measures momentum by comparing two moving averages and can be used to confirm signals from a Donchian channel. For example, should a price break the upper Donchian band, signaling a bullish trend, a bullish MACD crossover (when the line in the MACD crosses above the signal line) could indicate how strong the trend is. Likewise, should the price drop beneath the lower Donchian channel and have a bearish MACD crossover, this would signal that the move downward is a strong trend.

Factors to Consider When Using Donchian Channels

When using Donchian channels, several factors should be tailored to individual trading strategies:

Selecting the period length: The default setting is 20 periods, but traders may adjust it to suit their trading needs and style. A shorter period makes the channel more sensitive to recent price moves, which is ideal for short-term trading. In contrast, a longer period smooths out the price data, which can be beneficial for long-term trend following.
Market conditions: Donchian channels are most effective in trending markets. In range-bound or sideways markets, the channels may produce frequent false signals. It is essential to assess the overall market condition and use Donchian channels accordingly, possibly with other indicators that help identify market phases.
Risk management: As with any trading strategy, risk management is crucial. Setting stop-loss orders is recommended to manage potential losses, especially in volatile markets. A stop loss at the lower and upper bands of the Donchian channel can be strategically placed for a long position and a short position, respectively.
Combining with other indicators: To help confirm signals and reduce the risk of false breakouts, it is often beneficial to use Donchian channels with other technical indicators like the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), or moving averages. This multiple-indicator approach can provide a more complete view of the market.

Understanding false breakouts: A challenge with Donchian channels is that false breakouts occur when the price breaks through a band but then quickly reverses. Being ready for potential false signals is necessary for effective trading.
Historical performance: Analyzing how an asset has historically responded to Donchian channel levels can help understand how it might perform in the future. However, past performance does not always indicate future results, so this should be one of several considerations.
Adjustments for different assets: Different assets may behave differently, and what works for one asset or market may not work for another. Adjusting the settings of the Donchian channels to suit the characteristics of the specific assets is often necessary.
Volatility consideration: The Donchian channel’s width can indicate the asset’s volatility. The channels will widen in highly volatile markets, and the price might hit the bands more frequently. This should be taken into account when interpreting the signals generated.

Backtesting: Before applying Donchian channels strategies to live trading, backtesting on historical data may prove beneficial. This helps in understanding how the strategy would have performed in the past and in refining the approach based on real market data.
Market context: Economic indicators, market sentiment, and fundamental factors should not be ignored. The overall market context needs to be considered. Tools like Donchian channels are most effective in a comprehensive trading strategy considering diverse market aspects.

Limitations and Risks of Donchian Channels

Donchian channels, like any technical analysis tool, have certain limitations and risks that traders should know:

Lagging indicator: The first limitation concerns lag. Donchian channels are based on past price data, making them lagging indicators. This means they react to price changes rather than predict them. In rapidly changing markets, this lag can lead to delayed entry and exit signals, potentially impacting the profitability of trades.

False breakouts: A significant risk associated with Donchian channels is the occurrence of false breakouts. The price may break through the upper or lower band, suggesting a trend change or continuation, but then quickly reverse direction. This can lead to traders entering or exiting positions based on misleading signals.

Sideways markets: Donchian channels are most effective in trending markets. In range-bound or sideways markets, when the price fluctuates within a narrow band, these channels can produce frequent whipsaws, frequent reversals leading to confusion and potential losses.

Overreliance on them: Moreover, relying solely on Donchian channels for trading decisions can be risky. It is generally more effective to use with other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis to confirm signals and gain a more comprehensive market perspective. Indeed, while Donchian channels can help set stop-loss levels, determining the best place for these stops can be challenging, especially in volatile markets. The wrong stop-loss settings can lead to premature exits from potentially profitable trades or substantial losses.

The wrong period setting: The effectiveness of Donchian channels is also heavily dependent on the chosen period setting. Different settings can produce vastly different results, and no one-size-fits-all setting works for all markets or all types of assets. In addition, traders might experience psychological biases, such as confirmation bias, when they only use the channel signals that confirm their preexisting beliefs or positions. This can lead to misguided trading decisions.

Leaves a lot out: It should be noted that Donchian channels do not consider broader market conditions, news events, economic data releases, or other fundamental factors that can significantly impact asset prices. The tool ignores market context. Finally, traders might unintentionally introduce bias by selecting channel parameters that align with their desired outcomes rather than those that objectively reflect market conditions.

Understanding these limitations and risks is required for effectively using Donchian channels in trading. Traders are typically advised to use a holistic approach that combines several methods of analysis methods and sound risk management practices.

Example of Donchian Channel Trading Strategy

This example entails using the Donchian channel on the exchange-traded fund Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ). This example was conducted on a four-hour chart from Dec. 14, 2022, to Dec. 14, 2023.

The buy condition occurs when the candle’s high is above the Donchian channel’s upper band. This would close any short positions. Conversely, the sell condition rule entails when the candle’s low is lower than the lower band of the Donchian channel. This condition will close any long positions.

The strategy assumptions for Donchian channel trading include the following:

Initial capital of $1,000,000
Order size of 100% of equity
No pyramiding of orders
No leveraged trades
Commissions and slippage are ignored
Period length of 20

Donchian Channel on QQQ.

Tradingview

The results are as follows:

Net profit: 9.64%
Total closed trades: 15
Percentage of profitable trades: 46.67%
Profit factor generated: 1.35
Maximum drawdown: 14.87%
Buy and hold over same period: 55.12%

Donchian Channel Profit and Loss.

Tradingview

This example illustrates the potential effectiveness of the Donchian channels. However, it is critical to note that traders typically utilize more complex trading strategies and leverage, and they subject the indicator to more extensive backtesting and optimization before applying it to real trading.

Other Indicators Similar to Donchian Channels

Several technical analysis indicators share similarities with Donchian channels:

Bollinger Bands: A volatility indicator consisting of a middle simple moving average and two standard deviation lines above and below it.
Keltner channels: Like Bollinger Bands, but the channels are defined by an exponential moving average and average true range.
Moving average envelopes: These are moving averages set above and below the price by a specified percentage.
Price channels: Plots a security’s highest high and lowest low over a certain period.
Average true range bands: Creates a volatility-based range around the price based on the average true range of an asset.

How Reliable are Donchian Channels?

The reliability of Donchian channels, like any technical analysis tool, depends on several factors. Its effectiveness can vary based on market conditions, asset types, and how it is used within a broader trading strategy. Donchian channels should be employed with an understanding of their limitations and with other analysis methods and sound trading practices.

How do Donchian Channels Differ From Other Technical Analysis Indicators?

Donchian channels differ from other technical analysis indicators in several key ways. One is their focus on price extremes while exhibiting strong trend lines. Many technical analysis indicators give a smoothed average price trend, while Donchian channels create a band enclosing the extreme highs and lows. This can be particularly useful for identifying breakout points and the size of volatility.

How Do I Pick the Number of Periods for a Donchian Channel?

Selecting the right number of periods for Donchian channels is crucial and should match your trading strategy, your trading horizon, and the market’s volatility. Fewer periods will be more responsive to price moves, which is better for short-term trading. A higher number of periods gives you a wider overview of market trends, which is better for long-term trading strategies. You should also consider the asset or market involved, the range in price for the market or asset over time, and your risk tolerance when setting the number of periods.

What are the Best Technical Analysis Indicators to use with Donchian Channels?

Combining Donchian channels with other technical analysis indicators can create a more robust and comprehensive trading strategy. The best indicators to pair with Donchian channels typically complement their trend-following nature or help in confirming signals. Some indicators include the RSI, MACD, the average directional index, the stochastic oscillator, the parabolic stop and reverse, and candlestick patterns.

The Bottom Line

Donchian channels, a technical analysis tool developed by Richard Donchian, can effectively identify market trends and potential breakout points. The channels are constructed using two primary lines: the upper band, which is the highest price over a set number of periods (typically 20), and the lower band, which is the lowest price over the same number of periods. An optional middle band can also be included, representing the average of the upper and lower bands. The simplicity of this formula, focusing on price extremes, enables traders to visualize market volatility, momentum, and potential shifts in market trends.

Donchian channels are versatile and can be adapted to diverse trading strategies and time frames, from day trading to long-term investing. They are commonly used to spot breakout prospects, with a break above the upper channel indicating a potential buy signal and a break below the lower channel suggesting a sell or short sell signal. However, they are most effective in trending markets and can produce false signals in range-bound scenarios. Hence, they are usually used with other indicators, like RSI or MACD, for a more comprehensive analysis. While Donchian channels offer valuable insights, traders should be aware of their limitations and incorporate them into a broader, diversified trading strategy that aligns with their risk tolerance and market outlook.

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15 Dec 2014

Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses (ALAE) Definition, Examples

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Are Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses (ALAE)?

Allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) are costs attributed to the processing of a specific insurance claim. ALAE is part of an insurer’s expense reserves. It is one of the largest expenses for which an insurer has to set aside funds, along with contingent commissions.

Key Takeaways

Allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) are expenses attributed to a specific insurance claim.
ALAE, along with unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ULAE), represent an insurer’s estimate of the money it will pay out in claims and expenses.
Expenses associated with ULAE are more general and may include overhead, investigations, and salaries.
Small, straightforward claims are the easiest for an insurance company to settle and often require less ALAE when compared to claims that may take years to settle.

Understanding Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses (ALAE)

Allocated loss adjustment expenses, along with unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ULAE), represent an insurer’s estimate of the money it will pay out in claims and expenses. Insurers set aside reserves for these expenses to ensure claims aren’t made fraudulently and to process legitimate claims quickly.

ALAEs link directly to the processing of a specific claim. These costs may include payments to third parties for activities like investigating claims, acting as loss adjusters, or as legal counsel for the insurer. Expenses associated with ULAE are more general and may include overhead, investigations, and salaries.

Life insurance companies that use in-house employees for field adjustments would report that expense as an unallocated loss adjustment expense.

Special Considerations

Some commercial liability policies contain endorsements, which require the policyholder to reimburse its insurance company for loss adjustment expenses (ALAE or ULAE). Adjusting a loss is “the process of ascertaining the value of a loss or negotiating a settlement.”

Therefore, loss adjustment expenses are most often those costs incurred by an insurance company in defending or settling a liability claim brought against its policyholder. These expenses can include fees charged by attorneys, investigators, experts, arbitrators, mediators, and other fees or expenses incidental to adjusting a claim.

It is important to carefully read the endorsement language, which may say that a loss adjustment expense is not intended to include the policyholder’s attorney fees and costs if an insurer denies coverage and a policyholder successfully sues the insurer. In this situation, where the insurance company has done no actual “adjusting” of the claim, it should not be entitled to apply its deductible to the expenses incurred by the policyholder in defending the claim abandoned by the insurance company.

ALAE vs. Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expenses (ULAE)

Insurers have gradually shifted from categorizing expenses as ULAE to categorizing them as ALAE. This is primarily because insurers are more sophisticated in how they treat claims and have more tools at their disposal to manage the costs associated with claims.

Small, straightforward claims are the easiest for an insurance company to settle and often require less ALAE when compared to claims that may take years to settle. Claims that could result in substantial losses are the most likely to receive extra scrutiny by insurers and may involve in-depth investigations, settlement offers, and litigation. With greater scrutiny comes greater cost.

Analysts can tell how accurate an insurance company has been at estimating its reserves by examining its loss reserve development. Loss reserve development involves an insurer adjusting estimates to its loss and loss adjustment expense reserves over a period of time.

What are the differences between ALAE and ULAE?

Allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) are costs attributed to the processing of a specific insurance claim. ALAE is part of an insurer’s expense reserves. Expenses associated with unallocated loss adjustment are more general and may include overhead, investigations, and salaries.

What should policyholders know about “endorsements”?

Endorsements require the policyholder to reimburse the insurance company for loss adjustment expenses. Read the endorsement language, which may say that a loss adjustment expense is not intended to include the policyholder’s attorney fees and costs if an insurer denies coverage and a policyholder successfully sues the insurer.

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28 Nov 2011

Asset-Based Approach: Calculations and Adjustments

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Is an Asset-Based Approach?

An asset-based approach is a type of business valuation that focuses on a company’s net asset value. The net asset value is identified by subtracting total liabilities from total assets. There is some room for interpretation in terms of deciding which of the company’s assets and liabilities to include in the valuation and how to measure the worth of each.

Key Takeaways

There are several methods available for calculating the value of a company.
An asset-based approach identifies a company’s net assets by subtracting liabilities from assets.
The asset-based valuation is often adjusted to calculate a company’s net asset value based on the market value of its assets and liabilities.

Understanding an Asset-Based Approach

Identifying and maintaining awareness of the value of a company is an important responsibility for financial executives. Overall, stakeholder and investor returns increase when a company’s value increases, and vice versa.

There are a few different ways to identify a company’s value. Two of the most common are the equity value and enterprise value. The asset-based approach can also be used in conjunction with these two methods or as a standalone valuation. Both equity value and enterprise value require the use of equity in the calculation. If a company does not have equity, analysts may use the asset-based valuation as an alternative.

Many stakeholders will also calculate the asset-based value and use it comprehensively in valuation comparisons. The asset-based value may also be required for private companies in certain types of analysis as added due diligence. Furthermore, the asset-based value can also be an important consideration when a company is planning a sale or liquidation.

The asset-based approach uses the value of assets to calculate a business entity’s valuation.

Calculating Asset-Based Value

In its most basic form, the asset-based value is equivalent to the company’s book value or shareholders’ equity. The calculation is generated by subtracting liabilities from assets.

Often, the value of assets minus liabilities differs from the value reported on the balance sheet due to timing and other factors. Asset-based valuations can provide latitude for using market values rather than balance sheet values. Analysts may also include certain intangible assets in asset-based valuations that may or may not be on the balance sheet.

Adjusting Net Assets

One of the biggest challenges in arriving at an asset-based valuation is adjusting net assets. An adjusted asset-based valuation seeks to identify the market value of assets in the current environment. Balance sheet valuations use depreciation to decrease the value of assets over time. Thus, the book value of an asset is not necessarily equivalent to the fair market value.

Other considerations for net asset adjustments may include certain intangibles that are not fully valued on the balance sheet or included on the balance sheet at all. Companies might not find it necessary to value certain trade secrets. However, since an adjusted asset-based approach looks at what a company could potentially sell for in the current market, these intangibles are important to consider.

In an adjusted net asset calculation, adjustments can also be made for liabilities. Market value adjustments can potentially increase or decrease the value of liabilities, which directly affects the calculation of adjusted net assets.

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12 Jan 2011

What Is an Assortment Strategy in Retail, and How Does It Work?

Written by admin. Posted in A, Financial Terms Dictionary

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What Is an Assortment Strategy?

An assortment strategy in retailing involves the number and type of products that stores display for purchase by consumers. Also called a “product assortment strategy,” it is a strategic tool that retailers use to manage and increase sales. The strategy is made up of two major components:

The depth of products offered, or how many variations of a particular product a store carries (e.g. how many sizes or flavors of the same product).
The width (breadth) of the product variety, or how many different types of products a store carries.

Key Takeaways

An assortment strategy is a strategic retail industry sales tool that optimizes the variety of goods offered for sale.
This strategy is centered around the concepts of “a deep assortment” and “a wide variety.”
Product assortment strategies got their start in the context of brick-and-mortar stores, but have since been carried over successfully to e-commerce platforms.

How Assortment Strategies Work

Essentially, a product assortment strategy is a retail industry sales tool with the concepts of depth and breadth at its core. However, not all retailers will be able to use both components of this strategy at the same time.

An assortment strategy can have many layers of sub- and related strategies, as each store will need to tailor the strategy to address its own particular needs and goals.

A deep assortment—the opposite of a narrow assortment—of products means that a retailer carries a number of variations of a single product. A wide variety—the opposite of a narrow variety—of products means that a retailer carries a large number of different kinds of products.

An assortment strategy is not one-size-fits-all; it needs to be customized to respond to a business’s parameters.

A Challenge for Small Stores

Retailers face a trade-off when determining an assortment strategy. Choosing both a wide variety and a deep assortment of products simultaneously requires a large amount of space, and is typically reserved for big-box retailers.

Stores with smaller spaces may choose to specialize in a certain type of product and offer customers a variety of colors and styles; other stores may offer a deep assortment of products but a narrow variety—one reason why a 7-Eleven (private since 2005) might carry just one brand of canned cat food, for example, while a Kroger (NYSE: KR) likely would have the space to stock 12 brands of canned cat food, if it chose to.

A Brick-and-Mortar Term

Originally, assortment strategy referred only to brick-and-mortar stores because the strategy’s components of depth and breadth had a lot to do with physical space and the visual and tactile interaction between consumer and product. Recently, though, all sales venues—brick-and-mortar, click and mortar, and e-tailing—have used varieties of the strategy to gain competitive advantage.

Adjusting for Demographics

By grouping together items that they believe will appeal to certain types of customers, retailers may fine-tune their assortment strategies to target consumers’ demographic profiles. If a retailer wants to attract customers who are new parents, for example, it might fill the shelves with infant apparel from trendy brands, along with toys, bedding, and other products new parents need.

A Strategic Selling Tool

A strategically arranged product assortment can upsell customers on supplemental items as they search for the item that brought them to the store.

Grouping related items together strategically, whether or not they are necessities, is a common way to stimulate impulse buying:

By placing garden hoses near sprinklers and other lawn-care products, a retailer might drive more into a customer’s basket. Likewise, installing a luxurious patio dining set—complete with attractive outdoor dishware and bar accessories—in the middle of the more prosaic yard-care products could even send some customers scurrying to the housewares section of the store.
A presentation of flashlights—or any battery-driven product—could include a nearby display of the batteries needed to use the product. Or a manager could locate the batteries near the check-out counter to remind customers before they leave the store that the flashlight won’t work without batteries.

Potential Disadvantages of Assortment Strategies

Although the depth of product assortment may help attract customers, there are certain caveats to relying only on an assortment strategy. If items in an assortment are placed incorrectly, the demand for these products may vary drastically.

If less-popular items are mixed in with popular items, for example, they could detract from the more-popular items’ appeal. Or, if the assortment is too vast, customers may have difficulty finding the item they are seeking. Overwhelming shoppers with too many buying options can be counterproductive and discourage customer engagement.

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