Posts Tagged ‘10’

Daily Analysis 20230621

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

June 21st, 2023

Good morning,

Stocks close lower for a second straight day, Dow sheds 200 points as market rally cools

Stocks fell Tuesday, the first trading day of the week, as a rally that drove the market to levels not seen in more than a year took a breather.

Dow……34054 -245.3 -0.72%
Nasdaq13667 -22.3 -0.16%
S&P 500.4339 -20.9 -0.47%

FTSE…..7569 -19.2 -0.25%
Dax……16111 -89.9 -0.55%
CAC……7294 -19.9 -0.27%

Nikkei…..33389 +18.5 +0.06%
HSI………19608 -305.8 -1.54%
Shanghai.3240 -15.4 -0.47%

IDX…..6660.46 -25.60 -0.38%
LQ45….948.81 -1.21 -0.13%
IDX30…493.61 -0.70 -0.14%

IDXEnergy…1797.12 +2.62 +0.15%
IDX BscMat..990.60 -16.50. -1.64%
IDX Indstrl…1168.07 -7.27 -0.62%
IDXNONCYC.738.81 -7.18 -0.96%
IDX Hlthcare1501.75 +2.72 +0.18%
IDXCYCLIC…868.69 -13.39 -1.52%
IDX Techno.4914.43 -64.66 -1.30%
IDX Transp..1911.26 -26.66 -1.38%
IDX Infrast..áșžz. .848.39 -4.66 -0.55%
IDX Finance.1389.73 -2.54 -0.19%
IDX Banking.1171.55 +0.46 +0.04 %
IDX Property..741 +7.40 +1.01%

Indo10Yr.6.383 +0.0308 +0.48%
ICBI..365.9502 -0.3621 -0.10%
US2Yr.4.6900 -0.070 -1.47%
US5Yr 3.9440 -0.042 -1.05%
US10Yr3.7300-0.100 -2.63%
US30Yr.3.8100-0.110 -2.81%
VIX……13.88👍 -0.31 -2.18%

USDIndx102.5400 +0.0180 +0.02%
Como Indx….267.41 -3.49 -1.29%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN……146.06 -2.96 -1.99%

IndoCDS.83.21 +0.02 +0.02%
(5-yr INOCD5) (19/06)

IDR…..15004.50‌+10.50 +0.07%
Jisdor.15040.00‌ +46.00 +0.31%

Euro……1.0919 -0.0007 -0.06%

TLKM…26.73 +0.02 +0.07%
(4020)
EIDO….22.97 -0.24 -1.03%
EEM…..40.08 -0.80 -1.96%

Oil………70.50 -0.79 -1.11%
Gold…1947.70 -16.40 -0.83%
Timah..26900.00 -51.00 -0.19%
(Closed 18/06)
Nickel..21976.00 -533.00 -2.36%
(Closed 20/06)
Silver….. 23.45 -0.81 -3.33%
Copper..389.35 +1.90 +0.49%

Iron Ore 62% 113.02 +0.09 +0.08%
(16/06)
Nturl Gas.2.485 -0.177 -6.65%‌

Coal price.126.55 -1.80 -1.40%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.134.55 +1.75 +1.31%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.136.55 +1.35 +1.00%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.138.45 +0.90 +0.65%
(Sept/Newcastle)

Coal price117.20 +3.15 +2.76%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price.118.00 +4.85 +4.29%‌
(Jul/ Rotterdam)
Coal price.115.75 +4.30 +3.86%‌
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price.114.95 +4.30 +3.89%‌
(Sept/Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)..3727 -31 -0.82%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……597.50 unch +0%
SoybeanOil 57.66 -0.21 -0.36%
Wheat…708.75 +7.25 +1.03%

Wood pulp..4280.00 -20 -0.47%
(Closed 20/06)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Kemaren index merah semua kecuali nikkei. USD index naik sedikit tapi semua komoditas turun lagi kecuali copper sama iron ore. Masih lesu…

IHSG – stoch sell lagi,MACD rev down, MFI sw, w% down, BD masih acc nahan biar ga drop jauh, masih FNS terus, breakdown MA 10 dan 20, rada mengkhawatirkan, yang signal ngebalik exit dulu di DCB ya, harusnya ada DCB kalo digebukin begini

Akhirnya Basic Materials sama Energy ikut loyo, hold cash dulu guys

Stochastic Buy Signal: BRIS MEDC

BMTR dibanting tapi diakum, menarik dicermati

MACD Buy Signal: BBTN MPMX. Group SRTG kayanya mulai gerak goreng sih, sebelumnya MDKA, kemaren AGII, sekarang MPMX

Alligator Buy Signal: SMGR TINS AGRO ENRG MTMH TKIM

Supertrend Buy Signal: AKRA

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Daily Analysis 20230616

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

June 16th, 2023

Good morning,

S&P 500, Nasdaq rally for sixth straight day as traders hope Fed’s rate-hiking cycle is nearly over

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
on Thursday rallied more than 400 points and the S&P 500 touched a fresh 13-month high, as investors bet the Federal Reserve was close to done raising rates after the central bank this week skipped a hike.

Dow……34408 +428.7 +1.26%
Nasdaq13782 +156.3 +1.15%
S&P 500.4426 +53.3 +1.22%

FTSE…..7628 +25.5 +0.34%
Dax……16290 -20.7 -0.13%
CAC……7291 -37.6 -0.51%

Nikkei…..33485 -16.9 -0.05%
HSI………19829 +420.5 +2.17%
Shanghai.3253 +23.99 +0.74%

IDX…..6713.79 +14.08 +0.21%
LQ45….952.27 +2.46 +0.26%
IDX30…495.48 +1.47 +0.30%

IDXEnergy…1804.57 +13.42 +0.75%
IDX BscMat.1004.10 +6.18. +0.62%
IDX Indstrl…1176.38 -3.82 -0.32%
IDXNONCYC.748.16 +0.55 +0.07%
IDX Hlthcare1516.42 +8.90 +0.59%
IDXCYCLIC…885.38 +0.73 +0.08%
IDX Techno..4899.01 +17.34+0.36%
IDX Transp..1924.74 -33.59 -1.72%
IDX Infrast…..859.73 +5.22 +0.61%
IDX Finance.1396.69 -3.44 -0.25%
IDX Banking.1173.23 +1.15 +0.10%
IDX Property..736 -4.80 -0.65%

Indo10Yr.6.3501 +0.0084 +0.13%
ICBI..366.7252 -0.2243 -0.06%
US2Yr.4.6410 -0.066 -1.40%
US5Yr 3.9130 -0.081 -2.02%
US10Yr3.7200-0.074 -1.95%
US30Yr.3.831-0.062 -1.59%
VIX……14.50 +0.62 +4.47%

USDIndx102.1150 -0.8330 -0.81%
Como Indx.266.91 +6.65 +2.55%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN……148.61 +0.58 +0.39%

*IndoCDS.83.22👍 +0.01 +0.01%*[
(5-yr INOCD5) (14/06)

IDR…..14954.00‌ +47.50 +0.32%
Jisdor.14943.00‌ +48.00 +0.32%

Euro……1.0947 +0.0113 +1.04%

TLKM…27.08 +0.25 +0.93%
(4046)
EIDO….23.45 -0.01 -0.04%
EEM…..41.02 +0.38 +0.94%

Oil……70.54 +1.90 +2.77%
Gold…1970.10 +13.10 +0.67%
Timah..26762.00 +697.00 +2.67%
(Closed 14/06)
Nickel..22975.50 +292.00 +1.29%
(Closed 15/06)
Silver……23.96 -0.04 -0.17%
Copper..389.45. +3.75 +1.05%

Iron Ore 62% 112.75 +0.30 +0.27
(14/06)
Nturl Gas.2.554 +0.2160 +9.24%‌

Coal price.135.95 +3.95 +2.99%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.139.70 +3.55 +2.61%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.141.95 +3.35 +2.42%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.144.30 +2.75 +1.94%
(Sept/Newcastle)

Coal price116.45 +0.05 +0.04%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price.116.80 -0.05 -0.04%
(Jul/ Rotterdam)
Coal price.114.05 -0.15 -0.13%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price.113.40 +0.25 +0.22%
(Sept/Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)..3506 +67 +1.94%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……574.50 +25.25 +4.60%‌
SoybeanOil 56.45 +2.74 +5.10%‌
Wheat…672.75 +31.50 +4.91%‌

Wood pulp..4300.00 -14 -0.32%
(Closed 13/06)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US ijo tebel, europe varied, asia nikkei doang yang merah, lanjut ah hari ini…

Oil rebound, gas jump, coal ijo. ADRO lanjut… Semoga PGAS juga rebound setelah deviden trap. Gold rebound, silver merah copper ijo, timah nikel iron ore ijo.ANTM MDKA INCO TINS lanjut. CPO ijo, mulai harus dicermati AALI LSIP

IHSG – stoch up, macd up, MFI sw, w% uptrend, BD acc, FF dist, kejedot fibo 23 dan midline LR, long lowershadow touch MA 10, closing di atas, mantul sih harusnya, tinggal tunggu foreign acc lagi

Masih Basic Materials sama Energy, yang udah leading Industrials sama Healthcare. Technology mulai melemah

Stochastic Buy Signal: BBRI APIC BBKP MPMX INCI

MACD Buy Signal: BMRI BRPT CPIN INCO INTP KLBF TPIA BSSR MTEL

Alligator Buy Signal: BBHI ERAA LSIP MLPL WIKA

Supertrend Buy Signal: AALI

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Daily Analysis 20230609

Written by itho suryoputro. Posted in Daily Analysis

June 09th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow rises more than 160 points to notch third straight day of gains, S&P 500 hits new closing high for 2023

Stocks climbed Thursday as the market built on its recent gains, and traders looked ahead to key inflation data next week as well as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement

Dow……33833 +168.6 +0.50%
Nasdaq13239 +133.6 +1.02%
S&P 500.4294 +26.4 +0.62%

FTSE…..7600 -24.6 -0.32%
Dax……15990 +29.4 +0.18%
CAC……7222 +19.4 +0.27%

Nikkei…..31641 -272.5 -0.85%
HSI………19299 +47.2 +0.25%
Shanghai.3214 +15.8 +0.49%

IDX…..6666.33 +46.58 +0.70%
LQ45….953.39 +7.99 +0.85%
IDX30…496.99 +4.62 +0.94%

IDXEnergy…1761.68 +20.16 +1.16%
IDX BscMat…998.54 -3.70 -0.37%
IDX Indstrl…1167.97 +5.88 +0.51%
IDXNONCYC.747.16 +3.69 +0.50%
IDX Hlthcare1495.80 +11.56 +0.78%
IDXCYCLIC…878.92 +0.84 +0.10%
IDX Techno..4887.38 +102.46 +2.14%
IDX Transp..1932.01 +14.82 +0.77%
IDX Infrast…..854.13 +3.40 +0.40%
IDX Finance.1382.31 +10.49 +0.76%
IDX Banking.1166.04 +10.45 +0.90%
IDX Property..740 -5.30 -0.71%

Indo10Yr.6.4376+0.0160 +0.25%
ICBI..364.3492 -0.1981 -0.05%
US2Yr.4.5240 -0.032 -0.70%
US5Yr 3.8580 -0.070 -1.96%
US10Yr3.7210 -0.079 -2.08%
US30Yr.3.8888 -0.065 -1.64%
VIX……13.65👍 -0.29 -2.08%

USDIndx103.3430👍-0.7560 -0.73%
Como Indx.262.32 +0.88 +0.34%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN……144.45 +0.91 +0.64%

IndoCDS.85.19👍 -0.49 -0.57%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/06)

IDR…..14895.00 +17.50 +0.12%
Jisdor.14903.00 +28.00 +0.19%

Euro……1.0784 +0.0085 +0.79%

TLKM…28.21 +0.29 +1.04%
(4196)
EIDO….23.45 +0.23 +0.99%
EEM…..39.68 +0.28 +0.71%

Oil……71.00 -1.50 -2.06%
Gold…1980.70 +23.60 +1.21%
Timah..25650.00 +32.00 +0.12%
(Closed 07/06)
Nickel..21077.50 -383.00 -1.78%
(Closed 07/06)
Silver……24.35 +0.82 +3.48%
Copper..378.70 +3.50 +0.93%

Iron Ore 62% 109.18 +0.59 +0.54%
(07/06)
Nturl Gas.2.322 -0.006 -0.26%

Coal price.136.25 +0.25 +0.18%
(Jun/Newcastle)
Coal price.144.50 +2.65 +1.87%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.147.75 +2.90 +2.00%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.150.75 +3.75 +2.55%
(Sept/Newcastle)

Coal price112.90 +2.90 +2.64%
(Jun/Rotterdam)
Coal price.107.70 +2.20 +2.09%
(Jul/ Rotterdam)
Coal price.105.90 +1.65 +1.58%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price.107.70 +0.80 +0.77%
(Sept/Rotterdam)

CPO(Agt)..3263 -55 -1.66%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn……608.00 +10.50 +1.76%
SoybeanOil 50.92 +1.66 +3.37%
Wheat…627.75 +3.75 +0.60%

Wood pulp..4370.00 -10 -0.23%
(Closed 08/06)

©Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE
Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Index regional rata2 ijo semua kecuali Inggris sama Jepang

Oil gas merah coal ijo lagi

Gold Silver Copper ijo, ANTM MDKA ngacir lagi harusnya. TImah ijo nikel merah iron ore merah INCO masih ketahan dulu nih. CPO masih lanjut merah, belum ok

IHSG – stoch buy, macd almost buy,MFI up w% up, BD acc, FNS 2 hari, reg bull div confirmed by MA10 and 2 bull candle, triple bottom, ok sih, tinggal FNB terus lari

Banyak yang jalan, saya pilih Basic Materials dan Energy yang kemungkinan masih panjang gerakannya…

 

Banyak banget yang Stochastic nya buy, yang big accum UNTR, kita check juga INKP SMGR ERAA JSMR TKIM

MACD buy signal: SRTG ERAA JSMR

Alligator buy signal: PGAS AMFG

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McGinley Dynamic: The Reliable Unknown Indicator

Written by admin. Posted in Technical Analysis

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The McGinley Dynamic is a little-known yet highly reliable indicator invented by John R. McGinley, a chartered market technician and former editor of the Market Technicians Association’s Journal of Technical Analysis. Working within the context of moving averages throughout the 1990s, McGinley sought to invent a responsive indicator that would automatically adjust itself in relation to the speed of the market.

His eponymous Dynamic, first published in the Journal of Technical Analysis in 1997, is a 10-day simple and exponential moving average with a filter that smooths the data to avoid whipsaws.

Key Takeaways

  • John R. McGinley is a chartered market technician known for his work with technical market strategies and trading techniques.
  • The McGinley Dynamic is a moving average indicator he created in the 1990s that looks to automatically adjust itself to the pace of the financial markets.
  • The technique helps address the tendency to inappropriately apply moving averages.
  • It also helps to account for the gap that often exists between prices and moving average lines.

Simple Moving Average (SMA) vs. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

A simple moving average (SMA) smooths out price action by calculating past closing prices and dividing by the number of periods. To calculate a 10-day simple moving average, add the closing prices of the last 10 days and divide by 10. The smoother the moving average, the slower it reacts to prices.

A 50-day moving average moves slower than a 10-day moving average. A 10- and 20-day moving average can at times experience the volatility of prices that can make it harder to interpret price action. False signals may occur during these periods, creating losses because prices may get too far ahead of the market.

An exponential moving average (EMA) responds to prices much more quickly than a simple moving average. This is because the EMA gives more weight to the latest data rather than older data. It’s a good indicator for the short term and a great method to catch short-term trends, which is why traders use both simple and exponential moving averages simultaneously for entry and exits. Nevertheless, it too can leave data behind.

The Problem With Moving Averages

In his research, McGinley found moving averages had many problems. In the first place, they were inappropriately applied. Moving averages in different periods operate with varying degrees in different markets. For example, how can one know when to use a 10-day, 20-day, or 50-day moving average in a fast or slow market? In order to solve the problem of choosing the right length of the moving average, the McGinley Dynamic was built to automatically adjust to the current speed of the market.

McGinley believes moving averages should only be used as a smoothing mechanism rather than a trading system or signal generator. It is a monitor of trends. Further, McGinley found moving averages failed to follow prices since large separations frequently exist between prices and moving average lines. He sought to eliminate these problems by inventing an indicator that would hug prices more closely, avoid price separation and whipsaws, and follow prices automatically in fast or slow markets.

McGinley Dynamic Formula

This he did with the invention of the McGinley Dynamic. The formula is:


MD i = M D i − 1 + Close − M D i − 1 k × N × ( Close M D i − 1 ) 4 where: MD i = Current McGinley Dynamic M D i − 1 = Previous McGinley Dynamic Close = Closing price k = . 6  (Constant 60% of selected period N) N = Moving average period \begin{aligned} &\text{MD}_i = MD_{i-1} + \frac{ \text{Close} – MD_{i-1} }{ k \times N \times \left ( \frac{ \text{Close} }{ MD_{i-1} } \right )^4 } \\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &\text{MD}_i = \text{Current McGinley Dynamic} \\ &MD_{i-1} = \text{Previous McGinley Dynamic} \\ &\text{Close} = \text{Closing price} \\ &k = .6\ \text{(Constant 60\% of selected period N)} \\ &N = \text{Moving average period} \\ \end{aligned} ​MDi​=MDi−1​+k×N×(MDi−1​Close​)4Close−MDi−1​​where:MDi​=Current McGinley DynamicMDi−1​=Previous McGinley DynamicClose=Closing pricek=.6 (Constant 60% of selected period N)N=Moving average period​

The McGinley Dynamic looks like a moving average line, yet it is actually a smoothing mechanism for prices that turns out to track far better than any moving average. It minimizes price separation, price whipsaws, and hugs prices much more closely. And it does this automatically as a factor of its formula.

Because of the calculation, the Dynamic Line speeds up in down markets as it follows prices yet moves more slowly in up markets. One wants to be quick to sell in a down market, yet ride an up-market as long as possible. The constant N determines how closely the Dynamic tracks the index or stock. If one is emulating a 20-day moving average, for instance, use an N value half that of the moving average, or in this case 10.

It greatly avoids whipsaws because the Dynamic Line automatically follows and stays aligned to prices in any market—fast or slow—like a steering mechanism of a car that can adjust to the changing conditions of the road. Traders can rely on it to make decisions and time entrances and exits.

The Bottom Line

McGinley invented the Dynamic to act as a market tool rather than as a trading indicator. But whatever it’s used for, whether it is called a tool or indicator, the McGinley Dynamic is quite a fascinating instrument invented by a market technician that has followed and studied markets and indicators for nearly 40 years. In creating the Dynamic, McGinley sought to create a technical aid that would be more responsive to the raw data than simple or exponential moving averages.

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