What Is Anchoring and Adjustment?

Anchoring and adjustment is a phenomenon wherein an individual bases their initial ideas and responses on one point of information and makes changes driven by that starting point. The anchoring and adjustment heuristic describes cases in which a person uses a specific target number or value as a starting point, known as an anchor, and subsequently adjusts that information until an acceptable value is reached over time. Often, those adjustments are inadequate and remain too close to the original anchor, which is a problem when the anchor is very different from the true answer.

Understanding Anchoring and Adjustment

Anchoring is a cognitive bias described by behavioral finance in which individuals fixate on a target number or value—usually, the first one they get, such as an expected price or economic forecast. Unlike the conservatism bias, which has similar effects but is based on how investors relate new information to old information, anchoring occurs when an individual makes new decisions based on the old, anchor number. Giving new information thorough consideration to determine its impact on the original forecast or opinion might help mitigate the effects of anchoring and adjustment, but the characteristics of the decision-maker are as important as conscious consideration.

The problem with anchoring and adjustment is that if the value of the initial anchor is not the true value, then all subsequent adjustments will be systematically biased toward the anchor and away from the true value. However, if the anchor is close to the true value then there is essentially no problem.

One of the issues with adjustments is that they may be influenced by irrelevant information that the individual may be thinking about and drawing unfounded connections to the actual target value. For instance, suppose an individual is shown a random number, then asked an unrelated question that seeks an answer in the form of an estimated value or requires a mathematical equation to be performed quickly. Even though the random number they were shown has nothing to do with the answer sought, it might be taken as a visual cue and become an anchor for their responses. Anchor values can be self-generated, be the output of a pricing model or forecasting tool, or be suggested by an outside individual.

Studies have shown that some factors can influence anchoring, but it is difficult to avoid, even when people are made aware of it and deliberately try to avoid it. In experimental studies, telling people about anchoring, cautioning them that it can bias their judgment, and even offering them monetary incentives to avoid anchoring can reduce, but not eliminate, the effect of anchoring.

Higher levels of experience and skill in a specific field can help reduce the impact of anchoring in that subject area, and higher general cognitive ability may reduce anchoring effects in general. Personality and emotion can also play a role. A depressed mood increases anchoring, as do the personality traits of agreeableness, conscientiousness, introversion, and openness.

Anchoring and Adjustment in Business and Finance

In sales, price, and wage negotiations, anchoring and adjustment can be a powerful tool. Studies have shown that setting an anchor at the outset of a negotiation can have more effect on the final outcome than the intervening negotiation process. Setting a deliberate starting point can affect the range of all subsequent counteroffers.

For example, a used car salesman (or any salesman) can offer a very high price to start negotiations that are arguably well above the fair value. Because the high price is an anchor, the final price will tend to be higher than if the car salesman had offered a fair or low price to start. A similar technique may be applied in hiring negotiations when a hiring manager or prospective hire proposes an initial salary. Either party may then push the discussion to that starting point, hoping to reach an agreeable amount that was derived from the anchor.

In finance, the output of a pricing model or from an economic forecasting tool may become the anchor for an analyst. One possible way to counteract this is to look at multiple, diverse models or strands of evidence. Social psychology researcher Phillip Tetlock has found that forecasters who make predictions based on many different ideas or perspectives (“foxes”) tend to make better forecasts than those who focus on only a single model or a few big ideas (“hedgehogs”). Considering several different models and a range of different forecasts may make an analyst’s work less vulnerable to anchoring effects.

What Is an Automatic Premium Loan?

An automatic premium loan (APL) is an insurance policy provision that allows the insurer to deduct the amount of an outstanding premium from the value of the policy when the premium is due.

Automatic premium loan provisions are most commonly associated with cash value life insurance policies, such as whole life, and allow a policy to continue to be in force rather than lapsing due to nonpayment of the premium.

Understanding Automatic Premium Loans

In order to take an automatic premium loan, you have to have a cash-value life insurance policy, in which every premium you pay adds to the cash value of the policy. Depending on the policy language, life insurance policyholders may be able to take out a loan against the cash value of their policy. This accrued cash value is a value over and above the face value of the policy and can be borrowed against by the policyholder at their discretion.

An automatic premium loan is essentially a loan taken out against the policy and does carry an interest rate. If the policyholder continues to use this method of paying the premium, it is possible that the cash value of the insurance policy will reach zero.

At this point, the policy will lapse because there is nothing left against which to take out a loan. If the policy is canceled with an outstanding loan, the amount of the loan plus any interest is deducted from the cash value of the policy before it is closed.

Special Considerations

Since the accrued value is technically the property of the policyholder, borrowing against the cash value does not require a credit application, loan collateral, or other good faith requirements typically found in loans. The loan is taken out against the cash value of the policy, and the loan balance is deducted from the policy’s cash value if not repaid. The policyholder will owe interest on the loan, just as with a standard loan.

Automatic premium loan provisions help both the insurer and the policyholder: The insurer can continue to automatically collect periodic premiums rather than sending reminders to the policyholder, and the policyholder is able to maintain coverage even when they forget or are unable to send in a check to cover the policy premium.

The policyholder may still choose to pay the premium by the regularly scheduled due date, but if the premium is not paid within a certain number of days after the grace period, such as 60 days, the outstanding premium amount is deducted from the policy’s cash value. This prevents the policy from lapsing. If the automatic premium loan provision is used, the insurer will inform the policyholder of the transaction.