Daily Analysis 20230816

August 16th, 2023

Good morning,

Dow slides more than 300 points, breaking a 3-day win streak, as bank names tumble

Stocks fell Tuesday as concern over the state of the global economy — China in particular — and a decline in U.S. banks combined to pressure Wall Street.

Dow……34946 -361.2 -1.02%
Nasdaq13631 -157.3 -1.14%
S&P 500.4438 -51.9 -1.16%

FTSE…..7390 -117.5 -1.57%
Dax……15767 -136.97 -0.86%
CAC……7268 -81.1 -1.10%

Nikkei…32239 +178.98 +0.56%
HSI…….18581 -192.4 -1.03%
Shanghai.3176 -2.3 -0.07%

IDX…..6915.10 +4.93 +0.07%
LQ45….966.25 -2.41 -0.25%
IDX30…500.92 -1.43 -0.28%

*IDXEnergy…2001.56 +41.76 +2.13%*
IDX BscMat.1135.01 +5.55 +0.49%
IDX Indstrl…1203.00 -3.75 -0.31%
IDXNONCYC.755.51 +0.27 +0.04%
IDX Hlthcare1476.05 -3.73 -0.25%
IDXCYCLIC….922.66 +2.88 +0.31%
IDX Techno.4511.20 +45.58 +1.02%
IDX Transp..1858.13 -0.46 -0.02%
IDX Infrast… .873.32 +13.79 +1.53%
IDX Finance.1423.70 -5.29 -0.37%
IDX Banking.1215.09 -12.90 -1.05%
IDX Property..764 +5.20 +0.69%

*Indo10Yr.6.4343*+0.0194 +0.30%
*ICBI….369.1220* -0.1901 -0.05%
*US2Yr.4.9590* -0.014 -0.28%
*US5Yr 4.3780* +0.006 +0.14%
*US10Yr4.2210* +0.030 +0.72%
*US30Yr.4.3250* +0.041 +0.96%
*VIX…….16.46 +1.64 +11.07%‼️*

*USDIndx 103.2090‼️* +0.019 +0.02%
Como Indx…274.30 -3.79 -1.36%
(Core Commodity CRB)
*BCOMIN….138.10* -1.29 -0.92%

*IndoCDS.83.17 +1.96 +2.41%‼️*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(14/08)*

*IDR…..15341.50‼️+26.50 +0.17%*
*Jisdor.15346.00 ‼️+23.00 +0.15%*

*Euro……1.0903 -0.0005 -0.05%*

TLKM…24.50 -0.16 -0.65%
*(3760)*
EIDO….22.98 -0.04 -0.17%
EEM…..38.92 -0.45 -1.14%

*Oil………81.03* -1.38 -1.67%
*Gold…1932.30* -6.90 -0.36%
*Timah..25325.00 -1132 -4.28%‼️*
*(Closed 14/08)*
*Nickel..19765.50 -562.00 -2.76%‼️*
(Closed 15/08)
Silver…… 22.58 -0.06 -0.27%
Copper.369.50 -3.20 -0.86%

*Iron Ore 62% 104.63 -0.74 -0.70%*
(14/08)
*Nturl Gas.2.6540 -0.1600 -5.69%‼️*
*Ammonia China..3366.67 unch +0%*
(Domestic Price)(14/08)

Coal price..147.15 +0.65 +0.44%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.154.65 +1.15 +0.75%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price.157.10 +0.60 +0.38%
(Oct/Newcastle)
Coal price.160.40 +0.40 +0.25%
(Nov/Newcastle)

Coal price116.75 +1.15 +0.99%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price.119.10 -0.90 -0.75%
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price.119.65 -1.30 -1.07%
(Oct/Rotterdam)
Coal price.121.60 +0.65 +0.54%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

*CPO(Oct)..3788 +93 +2.51%*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………475.50 -12.25 -2.51%
SoybeanOil 61.88 +0.73 +1.19%
*Wheat….623.75 -17.75 -2.77%*

*Wood pulp..4640.00* unch +0%
(Closed 15/08)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_
*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

US merah dalem, eropa juga merah, asiamerah kecuali nikkei sama IHSG, hati hati koreksi…

USD index lanjut naik lagi, metals drop lagi, sekarang tanpa kecuali, oil gas juga merah, coal sama CPO yang ijo. Beware yang udah profit pasang trailing stop, stop loss di semua posisi

IHSG – Stoch buy, macd rev up, MFI sw, w% uptrend, BD acc, FF masih dist, triangel breakout upwards, harusnya lanjut ke atas, tapi US europe merah dalem kayanya pullback dulu

Property, Financials, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, Infrastructure. Basic Materials udahan dulu keliatannya. TPIA BRPT yang kemaren kenceng ati2 ya, bisa jadi udahan atau pullback, trailing stop on…

Stochastic Buy Signal: AKRA AMRT INTP MAPI ASSA BFIN JKON JSMR

MACD Buy Signal: ADRO SRTG TOWR UNVR PNLF RAJA SMRA

Alligator Buy Signal: BBNI JPFA MYOR

Supertrend Buy Signal: BRIS TBIG MYOR

AKRA – stoch buy, macd up, MFI doen, w%up, BD FF masih dist, oil price turun, baru bikin lower low, skip…

INTP – macd up stoch buy, BD FF rev dist, harga udah naik tinggi, deket fibo 38 ketemu regbear div, ah skip dulu ah, wave B dulu kayanya ini

MAPI – agak overpriced, tapi ok lah… Stoch buy, macd down, MFI down w% down, BD FF rev dist, ketemu reg bear, ah, longsor ini kayanya bentar lagi

ASSA – udah tercapai target double bottom terus koreksi, sekarang pas di area neckline mantul, ada reg bull div MACD hist, belum confirmed. Stoch buy, macd rev up, BD FF rev acc, MFI masih down, w% mulai up, menarik, tapi belum waktunya. Wait MACD kita assess lagi

JSMR – abis cnh jalan, target tercapai, terus koreksi, kaya bikin descending triangle atau falling wedge, anyway,walau stoch buy macd masih down, BD rev dist walau FNB. MFI sw, w% downtrend, skip dulu

ADRO – stoch up, MACD buy, MFIsw, w% uptrend, testing fibo 23, CNH finally jalan keliatannya, BD FF rev acc, bisa BOW ini ADRO… target cnh 2680 target fibo 38 2870. Target lanjutnya 3160 tapi kayanya ga akan sekali swing. Mungkin akhir tahun pas winter

Seperti semua emiten group SRTG, ada spike, mau hajatan. Firm BOW ADRO, saya skip karena udah pegang PTBA. Ada juga ADRO udah beli duluan di account lain

SRTG – stoch up, MACD buy, MFI sw, w%up, BD FF rev acc, freq spike, double bottom forming walau agak higher low sih, still, bagus. Yang jadi urusan adalah LK nya masih minus, so irresponsible buat beli SRTG. Tapi pede ini saham mau hajatan sih, di semua saham group nya malah

Yup, ada freq spike walau ga terlalu tinggi. So, yang ok beli saham perusahaan rugi monggo, kayanya mau jalan, tapi saya skip. Beli MPMX aja

TOWR – Stoch up, MACD buy, MFI up, w% up, abis retracement jalan ke deket fibo 61 terus koreksi, di area 23 mantul, BD FF rev acc, sektor jalan, bisa BOW sih, tapi saya pegang MTEL aja, skip TOWR

Spike nya terakhir malah jual, kurang semangat buat ngejar

SMRA – stoch sell, macd buy, MFI up, w% sw, BD FF rev acc tipis, property jalan sih, tapi udah pegang PWON dan SMRA nya stoch nya sell, skip dulu

JPFA – stoch up, udah overbought, MACD up rev down, MFI sw, w% masih uptrend, BD rev dist tipis, FF masih acc, ga berani sih buat new entry… lagian udah pegang CPIN

MYOR – stoch overbought, MACD up, 833 sell, MFI up, w% uptrend, BD rev dist, FF rev acc tipis, masih menarik tapi kayanya waktunya pullback dulu, tunggu 833 buy lagi