Daily Analysis 20221102

November 02nd, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks finish lower as Wall Street braces for key Fed decision

Stocks dipped on Tuesday as traders assessed better-than-expected economic data and prepared for another likely rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Dow…….32653 -79.8 -0.24%
Nasdaq.10891 -97.3 -0.89%
S&P 500..3856 -15.8 -0.41%

FTSE…….7186 +91.6 +1.29%
Dax……..13338 +85.0 +0.64%
CAC……..6328 +61.5 +0.98%

Nikkei….27679 +91.5 +0.33%
*HSI……..15455 +768.3 +5.23%‼️*
*Shanghai..2969 +75.7 +2.62%*
ST Times..3131 +37.4 +1.21%

IDX…….7052.30 -46.59 -0.66%
LQ45…1007.37 -6.75 -0.67%

*IDX Energy..2008.11 -61.39 -2.97%*
IDX Bsc Mat.1271.88 +3.65 +0.29%
IDX Industrl..1258.81 -15.14 -1.19%
IDXNONCYC..732.12 -3.19 -0.43%
IDX Hlthcare.1497.06 -7.07 -0.47%
IDXCYCLIC…..876.24 +7.70 +0.89%
IDX Techno..6483.15 +31.79 +0.49%
IDX Transp…1823.85 -21.89 -1.19%
IDX Infrast……935.64 -4.42 -0.47%
IDX Finance 1484.24 -17.12 -1.14%
IDX Banking.1194.56 -9.20 -0.76%
IDX Property….693 -0.30 -0.04%

Indo10Yr….7.5546 -0.0316 -0.42%
ICBI……..331.8430 +0.6152 +0.19%
*US10Yr……4.0520 -0.0250 -0.61%‼️*
*VIX……….25.81 -0.07 -0.27%*

*USDIndx 111.5300 -0.050 -0.04%*
Como Indx..276.34 +2.21 +0.81%
(Core Commodity CRB)
*BCOMIN……147.03 +4.84 +3.40%‼️*
.
*IndoCDS..139.53 – -%*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(31/10)*

*IDR……15627.50 +30.00 +0.19%‼️*
*Jisdor..15647.00 +51 +0.33%‼️*

*Euro……..0.9876 -0.0006 -0.06%*

TLKM……..27.82 -0.31 -1.10%
*(4353)*
EIDO………23.61 -0.14 -0.59%
EEM……….34.82 +0.63 +1.84%

Oil…………86.53 -1.37 -1.56%
Gold ……1649.70 +9.00 +0.55%
*Timah…..18101 – -%*
*(Closed 28/10)*
*Nickel…23444.00 +1497.50 +6.82%‼️*
*(Closed 01/11)*
*Silver………19.67 +0.55 +2.87%*
*Copper….347.25 +9.75 +2.89%*

*Nturl Gas…..5.838 -0.456 -7.24%‼️*

Ammonia..4113.33 unch +0%
*China*
(Domestic Price)(31/10)

Coal price….359.00 +2.70 +0.76%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….361.00 +4.95 +1.39%
(Des/Newcastle)
Coal price….358.05 +5.55 +1.57%
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price….225.10 +5.85 +2.67%
(Nov/Rotterdam)
*Coal price….226.95 +8.95 +4.10%‼️*
(Des/ Rotterdam)
*Coal price….226.15 +8.60 +3.95%‼️*
(Jan/Rotterdam)

*Coal(ICI 4)…..95.25 +3.60 +3.93%‼️*
Indonesial Coal Index (31/10)

*CPO(Jan)……4241 +194 +4.79%‼️*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………….697.75 +6.25 +0.90%
SoybeanOil…73.37 +0.16 +0.22%
*Wheat………902.50 +20.25 +2.25%*

Wood pulp…6750.00 -52 -0.76%
(Closed 01/11)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

Hangseng rebound kenceng banget, ga ikutan US market, shanghai juga. Asia yang merah cuma IHSG, dalem pula. DJI tadi malem closing merah lagi, europe masih ijo, harusnya kita hari ini ijo lah

Oil lanjut turun, gas turun dalem, coal rebound tipis, energy koreksi dulu ya… Metal metal rebound, nikel naik tinggi, kita liat chart INCO dan MDKA. CPO naik tinggi, perlu dicermati chart harga CPO ini, kalo trendnya udah ngebalik bullish kemungkinan besar saham CPO ngikut

IHSG – masih keliatan mau sideways, MFI masih up, macd up, FNB terus, masih aman harusnya lanjut wave 3. Candle terakhir memang bearish engulfing sih, tapi bukan di ujung atas uptrend tapi ada di fase sideways, semoga bukan pertanda bearish reversal. DMI ngebalik sell, stoch 833 sell, 1066 rev down, jangan koreksi dalem ah, sideways correction ajah 😇

CPO future – MACD up, stoch deket overbought, lagi mau rev up, 833 buy. DMI sideways, LR slope masih kebawah, udah deket bates upper channel. Abis terjun udah ketemu bullish divergence terus mantul ke fibo 23, harusnya lanjut ke fibo 38. tunggu momentumnya aja. William Alligator up, buy nya pas sekitar 18 okt an. Amannya ditunggu firm bikin higher low. Harusnya kalo komoditi geraknya ga seliar saham gorengan sih, lebih smooth. Apalagi kalo diperhitungkan bahwa palm oil bisa jadi substitusi fossil fuel, dengan kondisi krisis energi, bisa jadi sentimen positif juga.

Nah lho, financials nya mulai kebawah, harus diganjel yang lain kalo ga index bisa koreksi lebih jauh. Consumer cyclicals, property, transportation, infrastructure, technology

Consumer cyclicals – retracement pattern nya udah running sampe deket fibo38, stochastic udah overbought, ini sih kemungkinan besar mau koreksi or sideways dulu sambil nurunin stochastic, baru nerusin lagi. MACD masih up, mfi up, FNB, bandar akum, kalo akumulasinya naik terus atau minimal diem dulu ga distribusi, koreksinya ga akan jauh harusnya

MAPI

MAPI – ini yang single-handedly naikin Consumer Cyclicals ya… Tunggu wave 4 deh

Property – belum jadi running… stoch sama mfi udah cape…

No new signals

 

Transportation – nunggu stoch 833 buy lagi baru running lagi, cut short gerakannya, emang belum saatnya IHSG running lagi

Sepi… ga ada FNB ga ada bandar akum

Infrastructure – kenapa masuk di chart cacing sih ini, belum jalan juga… Algoritma RSI quadrant nya harus dibenerin kayanya ini

TOWR TLKM

TOWR – macd buy, retracement pattern suggest udah waktunya lanjut ke fibo 61, stoch up rev, 833 sell, belum saat yang tepat buat entry, idealnya pas firm 833 nya buy lah minimal

TLKM – belum, koreksi dulu ini keliatannya, padahal kemaren ISAT keliatan bagus, tapi kalo TLKM turun rada berat ISAT jalan sendiri