Daily Analysis 20221003

Global Update:

October 03th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down nearly 9%

Stocks fell in choppy trading Friday as Wall Street closed out a terrible week, month and quarter that brought the S&P 500 to a new 2022 low.

Dow…….28726 -500.1 -1.71%
Nasdaq.10576 -161.9 -1.51%
S&P 500..3586 -54.9 -1.51%

FTSE…….6894 +12.2 +0.18%
Dax……..12114 +138.8 +1.16%
CAC……..5762 +85.5 +1.51%

Nikkei….25937 -484.8 -1.83%
HSI……..17223 +56.96 +0.33%
Shanghai..3024 -16.8 -0.55%
ST Times..3130 +15.2 +0.49%

IDX…….7040.80 +4.60 +0.07%
LQ45…1011.47 +2.45 +0.24%

IDX Energy…1920.30 +12.42 +0.65%
IDX Bsc Mat.1237.97 -2.37 -0.19%
IDX Industrl..1270.72 -9.38 -0.73%
IDXNONCYC..696.46 -1.93 -0.28%
IDX Hlthcare.1497.87 +20.51 +1.39%
IDXCYCLIC…..849.77 -8.36 -0.97%
IDX Techno..6958.84 -86.25 -1.22%÷
IDX Transp…1759.62 -23.98 -1.34%
IDX Infrast…….980.91 -10.67 -1.08%
IDX Finance 1486.15 +5.12 +0.35%
٪IDX Banking..1158.75 +7.20 +0.63%
IDX Property….686 -10.00 -1.44%

Indo10Yr….7.4142 -0.0103 -0.14%
ICBI……..332.8421 -0.2121 -0.06%
*US10Yr……3.8040 +0.5720 +1.13%*
*VIX……….31.62 -0.22 -0.69%‼️*

*USDIndx 112.1170 -0.1370 -0.12%‼️*
Como Indx..268.29 -2.87 -1.06%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..143.44 -1.99 -1.37%
.
*IndoCDS 159.53 -7.81 -7.81%‼️*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(28/9)*

*IDR……15227.00 -35.50 -0.23%‼️*
*Jisdor..15232.00 -15.00 -0.10%‼️*

*Euro……..0.9802 -0.0029 -0.29%‼️*

TLKM……..28.85 unch +0%
*(4394)*
EIDO……..23.32 -0.13 -0.55%
EEM………34.88 -0.13 -0.37%

*Oil…………79.49 -2.17 -2.66%*
Gold ……1670.80 +1.20 +0.07%
Timah….20634 +111.00 +0.54%
*(Closed 30/9)*
*Nickel…21327.00 -1141.50 -5.08%‼️*
*(Closed 30/9)*
Silver…….19.04 +0.22 +1.17%
Copper….341.25 -2.20 -0.64%

Nturl Gas…..6.826 -0.055 -0.80%

Ammonia..4373.33 unch +0%
*China*
(Domestic Price)(29/9)

Coal price….407.70 -1.55 -0.38%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….417.70 +0.55 +0.13%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….412.70 +2.00 +0.49%
(Des/Newcastle)
Coal price….315.50 +0.60 +0.50%
(Okt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….313.45 +1.55 +0.50%
(Nov/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….310.45 +2.40 +0.78%
(Des/Rotterdam)

*CPO(Des)……3418 +75 +2.24%*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn…………677.50 +8.00 +1.19%
*SoybeanOil….61.56 -2.30 -3.60%*
*Wheat……..921.50 +25.25 +2.82%*

Wood pulp…6720.00 unch +0%
(Closed 02/10)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

 

US jum’at closing masih merah tebel, europe ijo, asia varied IDX ijo tipis. Kita check chart IDX financials later tapi kalo hanya baca globalnya begini kemungkinan masih lanjut wave 2 nya kebawah

Metal2an naik kecuali copper sama nickel yang turun dalem, oil gas coal merah, CPO ijo. Masih mendukung jalan Basic Materials.

IHSG – lihat indicators nya, belum selesai koreksi, yang mendukung rebound cuma itungan fibonacci aja

Dari RSI quadrant juga jelek banget, cuma Healthcare yang jalan ganjel index

Kita check financials dulu, infobank lah sekalian

Financials – Stoch buy, macd down, mfi flat, last candle hammer, masih inside cloud, ga tembus bawah, ST sell Alligator sell, foreign mulai akum setelah semingguan distri, bandar juga, elliot wave tarik ulang karena harga bikin lower low dibanding titik awal wave 2, lowest sekarang di area fibo 50, sudah sah untuk mantul, tapi kalo liat indic lain, kayanya masih lanjut kebawah

INFOBANK – mirip dengan IDX Financials, tapi belum tembus lowest wave 2 nya. Masih itungan lanjut wave 3. Stoch buy, macd down, MFI flat, FF last day akum, bandar last day akum, ST still up alligator sw, IHNS breakdown neckline tapi lagi balik deket level nya. Ini lebih mungkin keliatan mau mantul, tapi IMHO lebih besar kemungkinan turunnya

Financials – banyak FNB dan bandar big akum, spike di BBRI dan BTPS, buy signal di BMRI, ini bagus sih buat kemungkinan index rebound

Kalo dari sini belum saatnya Financials mantul. Cuma BMRI yang ok

BMRI – Stoch buy, macd sw, mfi sw, bandar sw last day up, ff sw last day up, masih jadwal wave 3, belum sampe level target.Kalo mau entry tunggu MACD

BMRI INKP MIKA

INKP – stoch buy, macd down, mfi down, ff dist, bandar 2 day big akum, retracement pattern kejedot fibo 38 longsor ke arah 23, target BOW di fibo 23 -> 8400. LR keliatan abis kejedot channel longsor, tapi candle rejection di midline, ada kemungkinan mantul di midline, tapi most likely stoch yang ngebalik ke bawah lagi dan selesai koreksi ke level sekitar fibo 23 sih

MIKA – all good, LR mentok atas tapi yang lain ok mungkin LR akan ganti slope. Sektor juga lagi leading. Kalo senin market merah dan MIKA keseret kebawah, berani BOW di mid candle sebelumnya plus 1 tick