Daily Analysis 20220927

Global Update:

September 27th, 2022

Good morning,

S&P 500 notches new closing low for 2022, Dow falls into bear market as dollar surges

The S&P 500 notched a new closing low for 2022 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped into a bear market as interest rates surged and turmoil rocked global currencies.

Dow…….29261 -329.6 -1.11%
Nasdaq.10803 -65.0 -0.60%
S&P 500..3655 -38.2 -1.03%

FTSE…….7021 +2.4 +0.03%
Dax……..12228 -56.3 -0.46%
CAC……..5769 -14.02 -0.24%

Nikkei….26432 -722.3 -2.66%
HSI……..17855 -78.1 -0.44%
Shanghai..3051 -37.1 -1.20%
ST Times..3182 -45.1 -1.40%

IDX…….7127.50 -51.08 -0.71%
LQ45…1020.20 -5.44 -0.53%

IDX Energy…1912.36 -79.32 -3.98%
IDX Bsc Mat.1284.21 -17.44 -1.34%
IDX Industrl..1318.18 -36.96 -2.73%
IDXNONCYC..704.29 -4.28 -0.60%
IDX Hlthcare.1461.51 -3.75 -0.26%
IDXCYCLIC…..872.80 -2.52 -0.29%
IDX Techno..7219.13 -166.50 -2.25%
IDX Transp…1837.53 -24.35 -1.31%
IDX Infrast…..1005.88 -11.88 -0.10%
IDX Finance 1508.33 +3.22 +0.21%
IDX Banking..1167.25 +3.68 +0.32%
IDX Property….706 -5.90 -0.32%

Indo10Yr….7.3547 +0.0364 +0.50%
ICBI……..333.6174 -0.9262 -0.28%
US10Yr……3.8780 +0.1810 +4.90%‼️
VIX……….32.26 +2.34 +7.82%‼️

USDIndx114.1030+0.9110 +0.80%‼️‼️
Como Indx..264.30 -4.17 -1.55%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..142.40 -3.77 -2.58%‼️
.
IndoCDS…111.84 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (25/9)

IDR……15129.50 +92.00 +0.61%‼️
Jisdor..15119.00 +84.00 +0.56%‼️

Euro……..0.9590 -0.0097 -1.00%‼️

TLKM……..28.91 +0.20 +0.70%
(4371)
EIDO……….23.77 -0.17 -0.71%
EEM……….35.54 -0.44 -1.22%

Oil…………..76.52 -2.22 -2.82%‼️
Gold ……1631.60 -24.00 -1.45%‼️
Timah. .20243.00 – –
( Closed 23/9)
Nickel…22143.00 -1246.50 -5.33%‼️
(Closed 26/9)
Silver…….18.34 -0.57 -3.01%‼️
Copper….329.10 -5.20 -1.56%

Nturl Gas…..7.029 +0.038 +0.54%

Ammonia..4373.33 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(22/9)

Coal price….438.00 +2.80 +0.64%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….422.90 +12.70 +3.10%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….425.00 +13.85 +3.37%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….325.75 -1.25 -0.38%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….294.60 -2.40 -0.81%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….296.00 -2.75 -0.92%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Des)……3546 -187 -5.00%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn…………666.25 -10.50 -1.55%
SoybeanOil…62.46 -1.22 -1.92%
Wheat………858.50 -22.50 -2.56%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 26/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Dari semua index, cuma FTSE yang closing ijo tipis, sisanya merah. Komoditi yang ijo cuma coal sama natural gas, masih dukung lanjut bursa merah hari ini. Masih jadwal lanjut wave2, walau minggu rebound dulu tutup opening gap kemarin

IHSG – masih half way ke perkiraan ujung wave 2 di closing gap 6740. Masih hati2 banget belanja. Mungkin hari ini rebound dulu tutup opening gap kemarin. Tapi belum waktunya untuk agresif belanja

Financials, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, Consumer Cyclicals, Infrastructure, Transportation

Financials – dari pattern nya, seharusnya akan terbang. Tapi inverted head and shoulders nya kejedot neckline terus turun lagi, tapi dari elliot wave, selama belum break low level wave 2, tinggal tunggu waktu akan running lanjut wave 3. Stochastic mulai oversold, sepertinya akan stay oversold sampai index koreksi cukup dalam ke fibo 50 atau beres tutup gap 6740.

Masih WNS aja ya, belum ada signal buy

 

Kita tunggu breakoutnya kalo gitu, semoga ke atas, harusnya sih ke atas…

AMRT GGRM

AMRT – Ternyata screening stochastic mansek bacanya udah sell terus buy lagi, kalo di tradingview emang belum sell masih lanjut, macd up, bandar dan foreign buang, ada candle volume buangan besar di 16 sept, curiga udah mau beres ini wave 5 AMRT, lanjut longsor

GGRM – ga akan dibeli, educational use only… Stoch hampir buy, macd buy kedua setelah yang pertama gagal naik, ada MACD bullish divergence, confirmed bymacd buy, belum ma10. Candle terakhir volume lumayan, kalo abis ini bandar masuk foreign masuk harusnya testing fibo 23, kalo ga bakal terus sideways or kebawah lagi

JPFA – bullish engulfing, stoch up, macd buy, mfi up, bandar akum, foreign akum 2 hari, candle close diatas EMA 20 – 50, EMA 9 memang belum cross EMA 21 sih… Berani BOW tapi ini… Harusnya mau test breakout fibo 23 lagi

Consumer Cyclicals – malah lanjut sell signal semua, ga jadi deh ini mau beli ERAA…

ACES beda sendiri

ACES – Stoch buy tapi yang lain belum ok, ada bullish divergence yang belum confirmed, WNS

Infrastructure – masih belum, tapi dari elliot wave harusnya udah deket area target ujung wave 4…

ISAT TLKM

ISAT – toch buy macd buy MFI flat, foreign still out, bandar trend akum tapi last 2 day distribusi kecil, ada freq spike tgl 21, ada gap 7850, elliot wave impulse wave 3, berani BOW

Idealnya buy di bawah 7109, tapi ga dapet… Asal BOW aja deh

TLKM – elliot wave level fibo 50, udah layak buat berhenti koreksi dan lanjut wave 3. Stoch buy macd down,bandar beres distribusi, foreign distribusi tipis, belum sih… WNS

Kecuali yang mau bottom fishing, pake lot kecil2

Transportation – belum dulu, WNS