Daily Analysis 20220907

Global update:

September 08th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 400 points higher, Nasdaq snaps 7-day slump as Wall Street shakes off rate hike concerns

Stocks rose Wednesday — trying to shake off a three-week slide — as rates and oil prices eased, cooling investor concerns about continued high inflation.

Dow…….31581 +435.98 +1.40%
Nasdaq.11792 +246.99 +2.14%
S&P 500..3980 +71.7 +1.83%

FTSE…….7238 -62.6 -0.86%
Dax……..12916 +44.5 +0.35%
CAC……..6105 +1.3 +0.02%

Nikkei….27430 -196.2 -0.71%
HSI……..19044 -158.4 -0.82%
Shanghai..3246 +2.9 +0.09%
ST Times..3211 -13.4 -0.41%

IDX…….7186.76 -46.40 -0.64%
LQ45…1019.67 -7.35 -0.72%

IDX Energy..2043.70 -28.22 -1.36%
IDX Bsc Mat.1311.09 +4.04 +0.31%
IDX Industrl..1371.83 -0.54 -0.04%
IDXNONCYC..702.77 -3.79 -0.54%
IDX Hlthcare.1419.16 -2.66 -0.19%
IDXCYCLIC…..879.58 -0.57 -0.07%
IDX Techno..7526.51 -39.42 -0.52%
IDX Transp…1923.01 -18.78 -0.97%
IDX Infrast…..1026.81 -16.49 -1.58%
IDX Finance 1505.65 -12.59 -0.83%
IDX Banking..1154.91 -9.73 -0.84%
IDX Property…708 -0.90 -0.13%

Indo10Yr….7.2107 +0.026 +0.36%
ICBI……..335.2978 -0.6038 -0.18%
US10Yr……3.2650 -0.0750 -2.25%
VIX…………24.64 -2.27 -8.44%

USDIndx 109.5620 -0.6520 -0.59%
Como Indx..276.52 -6.10 -2.16%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..147.06 -1.30 -0.88%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14917.50 +32.50 +0.22%‼️
Jisdor..14927.00 +42.00 +0.28%‼️

Euro………1.009 +0.0187 +1.89%

TLKM……..30.10 -0.20 -0.66%
(4493)
EIDO………24.05 -0.08 -0.33%
EEM………38.64 +0.34 +0.89%

Oil…………..81.94 -4.90 -5.64%‼️
Gold ……..1727.80 +15.20 +0.89%
Timah. .21614.50 -414.00 -1.94%
( Closed 06/9)
Nickel…21614.50 +34.00 +0.16%
(Closed 07/9)
Silver…….18.26 +0.38 +2.13%
Copper….343.05 -2.40 -0.69%

Nturl Gas…..7.856 -0.21 -2.60%

Ammonia..4100.00 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(06/9)

Coal price….439.00 -11.25 -2.50%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….434.70 -16.55 -3.67%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….423.70 -16.20 -3.68%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….375.00 -5.00 -1.31%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….358.00 -23.25 -6.10%‼️
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….349.30 -25.40 -6.78%‼️
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3704 -95 -2.50%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..671.00 -5.00 -0.74%
SoybeanOil…62.10 -1.18 -1.86%
Wheat……..844.25 +27.35 +3.44%‼️

Wood pulp…6740.00 unch +0%
(Closed 07/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US akhirnya rebound kenceng, eropa masih tipis, inggris malah masih merah dalem. Asia merah semua kecuali Shanghai.

Oil drop, coal drop, gas drop, sudah selesai kah wave 5 sektor IDX Energy? Kalo energy dan financials udahan, pas deh, IHSG wave 2. Kita pantau aja

Timah abis naik tinggi sendiri kemaren merah, metal2 lain rata2 naik kecuali copper. CPO juga turun banyak, kasian banget ini AALI sama LSIP ga jalan jalan, nanti mungkin bareng wave 3 index

Prediksi masih belum rubah banyak, index mau wave 2 dulu… kita belanja aggressive setelah tutup gap, atau paling cepet setelah retrace fibo 50

MACD index, masih belum firm kemana, tapi yang jelas belum aman buat aggressive belanja

IHSG – stoch up rev, macd still down, bandar mulai lepas barang, foreign entry menurun, MFI turun (consequently), PSAR masih up, price masih diatas MA20. Kalo pemain MA biasanya exit begitu price close dibawah MA 20

wah rada numpuk, kurang jelas…

Energy, Financials, Industrials sama Basic Materials. Saham2 sektor Healthcare, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, hati2 kalo signal ngebalik buang dulu

Energy – stoch sw, MACD up, bandar diem, foreign diem, MFI mulai turun, bearish divergence udah konfirmasi candle pertama, kalo hari ini merah lagi firm, mending buang barang, tapi liat detail chart per emitennya dulu

PTBA malah baru buy signal stoch kemaren

PTBA – memang lagging, signal buy keluar di stoch dan macd tapi 2 hari terakhir sebenernya bandar dan foreign dsitribusi. Bearish divergence RSI malah udah confirmed by 2 bearish candle, padaha gap masih dikit lagi belum ketutup kemaren, tapi liat perkembangan harga commodity energy terakhir kayanya bener bakal dibawa turun dulu

ADRO – udah kena target wave 3 nya, stoch flat, macd up, foreign masih akum bandar distribusi tipis, Lr mentok atas, apapun ceritanya udah target kena, ada drop harga coal juga, jual dulu just to be safe, kalo masih yakin naik keep setengah

Financials – udah 2 hari turun, stock overbought MACD belum jadi cross, bndar distribusi, foreign entry tapi vol kurang dibanding kemaren2 dan flat. Pattern wave 3 belum confirm belum tembus high di wave1. Price close dibawah MA 20, eh, EMA 21 ding yang saya pake

Belum ada buy signal baru…

Ga pada kompak, yang searah cuma BBCA BBNI BBRI BMRI, beneran digerakin ini sih, ga enak ngeliatnya…

Industrials – Bearish divergence di wave 5, candle merah hari ini, MA 10 belum, belum confirmed… LR suggest down, stoch sw,macd up,bandar mulai distribusi, foreign masih netbuy

KBLI buy, UNTR sell

KBLI – bullish divergence, ga firm ketemu 2 bull candle malah ketemu beberapa doji, belum tembus MA10, belum ketemu MACD buy signal, ada di area support, dan di sekitar fibo 23. Berani buy di 302 plus 1 tick 1/3, kalo break down 300 cut loss, kalo macd cross 1/3 lagi, vol breakout 1/3 lagi

Kayanya akan contrarian sama sektornya ini KBLI, atau bisa juga lanjut sideways lama baru gerak bareng sektornya later

UNTR – stoch sell, macd up, mfi flat, bandar akum, foreign tipis2, ujung wave3, ada reg bearish divergence, kalo hari ini merahjadi confirmed, LR suggest down. Siap2 belanja di ujung wave 4 aja deh

Basic Materials – Stoch Up, MACD Buy, FF masih out, Bandar akum, MFI up, alligator buy, otw wave 3, ada bullish divergence juga di ujung wave 2

Kemaren sore ga ada signal buy

TINS ada vol breakout, INTP FNB and big akum

TINS – belum waktunya, malah kemaren kecatet vol breakout itu candle vol buangan, padahal ada2 gap yangbelum ditutup diatas, sabar deh, ini pasti dikejar, kita cari timing yang sesuai

INTP – belum juga, stoch up flat, macd up, FF belum gerak, bandar belum gerak, MFI up, LR slope masih down, candle di atas mungkin malah mau kejedot, WNS

INKP TKIM yang jalan duluan MDKA INCO ANTM TINS BRPT sedang mengintai untuk gerak tapi belum

INKP TKIM akhirnya breakout juga, kemaren dari MACD cross udah buy tapi pas butuh wd dan stoch ngebalik jadi dijual dulu, ga ikutan deh, bukan rejekinya, hihihi… Sekarang sih ga berani FOMO terus buy on high. Nunggu rombongan ANTM INCO TINS aja deh

ANTM – belum, kita tunggu MACD nya baru entry setengah lagi, saya masih hold setengah ANTM.Target sell di gap closing

SMRA

PTBA KBLI udah dibahas, IDX Property buy juga

ASSA

SMRA – menarik, Stoch up, macd buy, EMA golden cross, breakout fibo 23, breakout ichimoku cloud, retracement pattern suggest towards fibo 61 @820. PSAR baru up.

serempak ternyata sama PWON BSDE CTRA, kalo gini berani masuk… tapi tetep pantau ketat karena index rawan koreksi

Property – bandar akum, FF masuk pelan2 terus, stoch buy, macd bentar lagi, MFI up, bull div + retracement pattern harusnya test fibo 23 dulu

Berani masuk setengah botol di yang ada buy signal property

ASSA – Belum euy, masih resiko banget ini… Mendingan entry nanti setelah sudah confirmed mantul dan bikin higher low