Daily Analysis 20220907

Global Update:

September 07th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes more than 100 points lower in post-Labor Day session as interest rates pop

U.S. stocks slumped on Tuesday in a volatile trading session as investors weighed what strong economic data and rising rates mean for the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign.

Dow…….31145 -173.1 -0.55%
Nasdaq.11545 -85.95 -0.74%
S&P 500..3908 -16.1 -0.41%

FTSE…….7300 +13.01 +0.18%
Dax……..12871 +110.7 +0.87%
CAC……..6105 +11.4 +0.19%

Nikkei….27627 +6.9 +0.03%
HSI……..19203 -22.97 -0.12%
Shanghai..3200 +13.4 +0.42%
ST Times..3234 +18.6 +0.58%

IDX…….7233.15 +1.27 +0.02%
LQ45…1027.01 -2.28 -0.22%

IDX Energy..2071.92 +58.63 +2.91%‼️
IDX Bsc Mat.1307.05 +8.99 +0.69%
IDX Industrl..1372.37 +12.28 +0.90%
IDXNONCYC..706.56 -2.67 -0.38%
IDX Hlthcare.1421.82 +6.04 +0.43%
IDXCYCLIC…..880.15 -1.00 -0.11%
IDX Techno..7565.93 +8.45 +0.11%
IDX Transp…1941.80 +14.38 +0.75%
IDX Infrast…..1043.29 -4.78 -0.46%
IDX Finance 1518.24 -6.51 -0.43%
IDX Banking..1164.64 -7.52 -0.64%
IDX Property…709 +10.10 +1.45%

Indo10Yr….7.1847 +0.008 +0.11%
ICBI……..335.9016 -0.0317 -0.01%
US10Yr……3.3400 +0.1470 +4.60%‼️
VIX…………26.91 +0.92 +3.54%

USDIndx 110.2140 +0.3950 +0.33%‼️
Como Indx..282.62 -1.85 -0.65%
M(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..148.35 +1.98 +1.35%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 unch +0%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14885.00 -22.00 -0.15%
Jisdor..14885.00 -35.00 -0.23%

Euro………0.9903 -0.0027 -0.27%

TLKM……..30.30 unch +0%
(4510)
EIDO………24.13 +0.09 +0.37%
EEM………38.30 -0.46 -1.19%

Oil…………..86.84 -1.98 -2.22%
Gold ……..1712.60 -8.60 -0.50%
Timah. .21625.00 +565.00 +2.68%‼️
( Closed 05/9)
Nickel…21580.50 -125.00 -0.06%
(Closed 06/9)
Silver…….17.88 -0.14 -0.78%
Copper….345.45 -0.20 -0.06%

Nturl Gas…..8.066 -0.697 -7.95%‼️

Ammonia..4100.00 +233.33 +6.03%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(05/9)

Coal price….450.25 -7.55 -1.65%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….451.25 -12.50 -2.70%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….439.90 -11.60 -2.57%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….380.00 -12.50 -3.18%‼️
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….381.25 -11.25 -2.87%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….374.70 -10.25 -2.68%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3799 -113 -2.89%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..676.00 +10.25 +1.54%
SoybeanOil…63.28 -2.97 -4.48%‼️
Wheat……..817.00 +6.00 +0.74%

Wood pulp…6740.00 +10 +0.15%
(Closed 06/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

Setelah libur US lanjut merah, europe ijo, asia mostly ijo kecuali hangseng

Oil Gas Coal turun, metal2 turun kecuali timah, CPO juga turun… Ini harusnya mendukung mau wave 2, tapi sektor financials masih up, ga sinkron jadinya

MACD nya almost golden cross… Sudah bikin higher high dibanding wave B, tapi masih belum break wave 5 kemaren… Jadi New Record High kalo break itu, euforia nya bakal luar biasa sepertinya

IHSG – candle kemaren rada rada shooting star, walau shadow nya pendek. Tapi tetep sih, candle reversal itu. Stochastic MACD akumulasi PSAR alligator supertrend, ichimoku masih indicate lanjut naik, tapi tetep, saya masih believe ini bakal turun. Too early to make a new record high tanpa ada recovery ekonomi yang jelas

Energy, Finance, Basic Materials, Industrials

Energy – Itungan wave 5 nya di 2184, masih panjang kalo bener kesitu. Tapi wave 5 suka berhenti setelah lewat 1x wave 1 dan sudah ada bearish divergence, jadi tetep rawan koreksi.

Belum ada signal buy baru, sudah pada lari…

Malah menarik liat ELSA, dibanding yang lain larinya belum terlalu jauh, dibanding MEDC jauh banget bedanya

ELSA – sudah ada beberapa kali vol breakout, menarik banget sih, MACD masih up, stoch baru buy lagi, PSAR up, bisa entry setengah sih, breakout 340 dan stay diatas 340 baru full muatan

Financials – Nah kan, sebelum breakout bikin higher high diatas titik wave 1 mulai melemah… Awas jebakan betmen, kalo sektor financials turun index pasti dibawa turun juga. Posisi sekarang sih masih aman, tapi bisa mendadak jelek kalo lanjut besok merah, bikin 3 black crows

Financials – Belum ada signal buy lagi, malah ada signal koreksi minor di BBNI BBRI BTPS

BTPS – MACD jelek, bandar dan foreign distribusi, ada 3 black crows, alligators siap2 terjun, lagi di fibo 23, mungkin mantul sih, tapi kalo breakdown rada panjang, ketemu divergence baru biasanya baru mantul lagi. Candle kemaren candle volume buang, bahaya… minggir dulu

Basic Materials – Stoch up, macd almost buy, bandar akum ff belum, lagi wave3 baru start, PSAR up, ok sih ini…

TINS udah buy signal MACD

TINS – ada 2 gap diatas belum ketutup, stoch up, macd buy, EMA 9-21 dikit lagi golden cross, alligator buy, dari area fibo 23 harusnya kalo berhasil break high ya ke fibo 61 di 1795. BOW

Industrials – semua indic masih up, tapi itu udah wave 5 dan ada bearish divergence, target wave 5 udah deket banget, dan seminggu terakhir akumulasi foreign berkurang banget. Resiko ini disini. Kecuali ada saham yang bagus dan belum jalan dan type contrarian sama Index

Belum ada buy signal baru, UNTR yang big akum kita liat

UNTR – hati2 kalo hari ini closing dibawah, stoch nya sell, MACD belum lama buy, bandar dan foreign lagi tarik ulur, target wave 3 udah kena, LR mentok atas.

ASSA ada hajat kayanya… FNB, Bandar akum, ada spike, oversold buy walau EMA dibawah 50, kita liat

ASSA – menarik ini, bikin divergence baru dan mulai mantul, MACD buy dan ada vol breakout

Asli menarik ASSA, harga masih dibawah avg modal bandar, berani buy ini

TINS TOWR AALI

TOWR – Stoch sw, macd reverse lagi, harusnya ke fibo 61 tapi kena bearish divergence, LRchannel masih area midline bisa kemana aja

AALI – sideways, bolak balik terus signalnya, tunggu vol breakout deh…