Daily Analysis 20220906

Global Update:

September 06th, 2022

Good morning,

US markets on holiday due to Labor Day

Dow…….31318 closed +0%
Nasdaq.11631 closed +0%
S&P 500..3924 closed +0%

FTSE…….7287 +6.2 +0.09%
Dax……..12761 -289.5 -2.22%
CAC……..6093 -74.3 -1.20%

Nikkei….27620 -31.2 -0.11%
HSI……..19226 -226.4 -1.16%
Shanghai..3200 +13.4 +0.42%
ST Times..3215 +9.8 +0.31%

IDX…….7231.88 +54.70 +0.76%
LQ45…1029.30 +9.50 +0.93%

IDX Energy..2013.28 +74.26 +3.83%‼️
IDX Bsc Mat.1298.06 +7.20 +0.56%
IDX Industrl..1360.09 +24.18 +1.81%
IDXNONCYC..709.23 -0.52 -0.07%
IDX Hlthcare.1415.78 -16.67 -1.16%
IDXCYCLIC…..881.16 -1.50 -0.17%
IDX Techno..7557.48 -27.86 -0.37%
IDX Transp…1927.41 -35.37 -1.80%
IDX Infrast…..1048.07 +3.66 +0.35%
IDX Finance 1524.75 +5.16 +0.34%
IDX Banking..1172.16 +12.19 +1.05%
IDX Property…704 +4.00 +0.56%

Indo10Yr….7.1767 +0.0120 +0.17%
ICBI……..335.9333 -0.3614 -0.11%
US10Yr……3.1930 closed +0%
VIX…………25.99 closed +0%

USDIndx 109.8190 +0.2850 +0.26%‼️
Como Indx..284.47 -0.15 -0.05%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..146.38 closed +0%
.
IndoCDS…122.88 +2.31 +1.92%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14907.00 +11.50 +0.08%‼️
Jisdor..14920.00 +20.00 +0.13%‼️

Euro………0.9930 -0.0024 -0.24%

TLKM……..30.30 closed +0%
(4521)
EIDO………24.04 closed +0%
EEM………38.76 closed +0%

Oil…………..88.82 +1.95 +2.24%
Gold ……..1721.20 -14.00 -0.08%
Timah. .21060.00 +95.00 +0.45%
( Closed 02/9)
Nickel…21593.00 +1119.00 +5.47%‼️
(Closed 05/9)
Silver…….18.02 +0.14 +0.78%
Copper….345.85 +4.50 +1.32%

Nturl Gas…..8.763 -0.139 -1.56%

Ammonia….3866.67 – –
China
(Domestic Price)(01/9)

Coal price….457.80 +22.80 +5.24%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….463.75 +22.85 +5.18%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….451.50 +20.95 +4.87%‼️
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….392.50 +16.50 +4.39%‼️
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….392.50 +24.15 +6.56%‼️
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….385.00 +23.40 +6.47%‼️
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3912 +11 +0.28%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..665.75 closed +0%
SoybeanOil…66.25 closed +0%
Wheat……..811.00 closed +0%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 05/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US tutup, eropa merah, asia varied, IHSG bikin higher high, apakah akah lanjut wave 1 nya diperpanjang ke atas? Kita tunggu saja… Sementara sih secara keilmuan baru menggeser titik puncak wave 1 sedikit, belum tentu akan long run

Commodity yang merah cuma gold sama natural gas, yang lain semua ijo, coal naik lagi tinggi, nikel juga naik tinggi

Untuk lanjut break high dan bikin new All Time High kayanya kemungkinan kecil sekali, sekarang belum bisa dikatakan ekonomi pulih, masih kondisi krisis, walau memang LK hampir semua emiten meningkat dibanding masa covid sedang merajalela. Masih menduga bahwa akan mentok sebelum mencapai record high dan akan bikin wave 2

IHSG – di banyak indicator bilang bagus dan akan lanjut, foreign juga netbuy terus, bandar akum terus, MFI naik… Tapi fundamentally rapuh, jadi prepare aja kalo market tiba2 ngebalik. Jangan masuk full cash dulu, masuknya hanya di energy sama finance kalo mau, dan pantau ketat, pasang stop loss/trailing stop.

Energy, Financials, Basic Materials, cocok sama kenaikan commodities. Industrials sama Infrastructure juga ada gerakan bagus, tapi belum dulu deh

Healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals sudah cape, ga jadi lari, keliatannya duit market maker masuk ke financials dulu

Energy – let the profit run aja ini… sudah nongol bearish divergence dan beberapa kali cancelled bikin break high terus. Awas jangan terlalu euforia, karena biasanya peak nya energy itu di winter, dan ini masih rada jauh kalo diharapkan long run uptrend terus sampe februari. At some point pasti jenuh dan ABC correction dulu

Banyak FNB dan bandar akum, PTBA INDY MACD buy signal

PTBA – ada gap belum ketutup, MACD baru buy, berani buy disini, tapi pantau ketat kalo ga long run

Harusnya sih tapi target sell di target pattern cup with handle, di 5000-an

INDY – all good kecuali LR, kemaren vol breakout dan MACD buy, stoch masih up, masih di akum, berani buy buat yang belum punya coal

Financials – all good, stoch buy macd almost buy, bandar akum foreign akum MFI naik, lagi wave 3 confirmed kalo tembus 1543

BBTN macd buy

BBTN – stoch buy macdbuy, retracement pattern towards fibo 61 @1720. LR masih kurang bagus, bandar dan foreign masih sepi euy

BTPS – kalo hari ini closing merah lagi, jadi three black crows candle nya, jelek deh… Stoch nya sih bagus, retracement pattern kaya mau test fibo 23 lagi sebelum mantul ke 61, macd belum, retracementnya bilang harusnya masih hari ngejar fibo 61 tinggal konfirm break fibo 38

Basic Materials – mau wave 3, foreign belum masuk kenceng, bandar masih flat juga, stoch buy macd almost buy, nextnya bisa run ini. mantul di cloud, alligator flat, siap mantul, LR mantul di midline, psar buy

INTP MACD buy signal

INTP – Stoch MACD buy, MFI up, FNS bandar mulai akum, retracement patterm belum jalan, LR masih kurang ok, berani entry kalo ada vol breakout sih

ANTM – belum waktunya, tapi pede akan tutup gap 2740, kita tunggu momentumnya… maih hold setengah botol saya. Stoch buy macd belum mfi up, bandar masih belum, foreign masih banyakan nfs. WNS

MDKA – sama dengan ANTM, lagi lingering di FIbo 23, harusnya akan berangkat ke 61, tinggal tunggu momentumnya. Buat MDKA biasanya di MACD.

TBIG ISAT BMTR layak dipantau

BBTN, coal, Industrials

TBIG – failed impulse wave, nanti ditarik baru lagi kalo ada divergence, generally belum aman, masih belumcross macd, masih dibawah EMA50, stoch buy tapi emang lagi sideways, jadi bolak balik keluar signal nya

ISAT – belum tutup gap, masih menarik ini, tapi belum ada macd cross, belum ada vol breakout, WNS

BMTR – belum, masih sideways, tunggu macd kita assess lagi. ABC correctionnya juga belum beres

Industrials – curiga UNTR yang ngangkat ini… stoch macd buy tapi ada bearish divergence di wave 5, bukan saat yang bagus buat entry disini…